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Wednesday, May 12, 2010

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Roger D.

Still in the grand supercycle wedge.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/ea98334b-ed8d-4cb8-90b3-02829a55804c

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/a283861b-de25-4e6d-963c-c4e5de7bb1d2

trendlines

Korea KOSPI chart updated. Broke out of the channel

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/05/kospi-200-trendline-watch.html

New Trader

I started studying EW late last year, I find it fascinating, together with the world financial situation I am a confirmed bear. However trading has not gone well and I have lost a lot of money. Do I quit and get a real job? Or just place a short position and sit for the next few years? Yelnick thank you so much for your website, and the huge amount of time you spend assisting strangers around the world. Would appreciate any constructive advice.

Marry

Why my post are getting deleted


You crazy ass yelnick! Step son of Bob

Mamma Boom Boom

Speaking of head & shoulders, couple of weeks ago I pointed the the right shoulder being established in the CRB. Of course I caught a lot of crap from amateurs. Anybody want to argue with me now?

DG

New Trader,

I would stop trading real capital and start paper-trading. Do at least 100 paper trades using your EW methods. When those 100 trades are done, take the average gain per trade and divide it by the standard deviation per trade. If the number you get is not larger than .25, you probably don't have a viable method. Alternatively, you could calculate your trading "expectancy" (the formula for doing so is available on many trading sites) and if the number is not positive, you don't have a viable method. 100 trades SHOULD smooth out the random fluctuations. If you don't have the patience to simply do 100 paper trades without putting real capital at-risk, take a small segment of your capital and trade it in real-time along with the paper-trades.

If you do have a viable method after 100 paper trades, figure out your optimal position size per trade (i.e. the position size which maximizes the growth of your equity curve while minimizing the risk of ruin) and go back to real trading. If you find yourself in a losing streak again, go back to paper-trading to see if your method has lost its edge for whatever reason or if it's just the laws of probability catching up to you.

Your post implies that you can live for a couple of years without any income, so if that's true, switching to paper-trading won't hurt you and, if your EW skills are not ready for real trading anyway, paper-trading will actually help you because at least you won't be losing real money.

Right now, it's all about building skills while stopping your capital hemorrhage.

Paul

I know it's a little off topic, but does anyone know STU's current wave count for gold? When I look at the chart, gold's 2008 decline into 680 does not look like an impulse wave to me. And the current rally from that 680 low is not wave B. It is clearly five waves up.

Marry

New trader,

why they all selling service, lol and not trade!

Yelnick is running ponzi affiliate website

Mamma Boom Boom

>Yelnick is running ponzi affiliate website
Posted by: Marry | Thursday, May 13, 2010 at 09:40 AM <

What's eat'in you, GI Jane?

New Trader

Thank you for your assistance. When I first starting reading EW it looked almost easy to make a fortune! Easy to read waves in advance it seemed, I will practice as suggested. Do many people really make a living using EW?
Cheers
New trader

Mamma Boom Boom

>Do many people really make a living using EW?
Cheers
New trader<

NO! Most get crushed. It's very difficult.

Hank Wernicki

TODAY'S TRADE TRANSCRIPT :

Thursday May 13th
3:11 pm

Kaboom

1160.26 <<< trading objective achieved today

12 points


2:56 pm

Stay Short with the SPX Puts for tomorrow with the Stop

Lower the Stop a bit

Or if you wish take the 10 points at the close --- @ 1162

Staying short here ........ looks like a top tick short for Friday

Remember the Full Moon ...... 1165.24 now for the SPX


2:14 pm

A Gap and Flat Day

Scanning


1:37 PM

SCANNING

12:15 PM

NEW MOON TODAY ... STAY SHORT

TYPICALLY A SELL OFF


11:58 AM

1165 NOW FOR THE SPX , LOWER THE STOP ON THE TRADE

7 POINT PROFIT <<< TAKE IT IF YOU WISH

OR EXIT AT THE SUGGESTED POINT AT 1162

11:38 AM

SHORT AND HOLDING NOW AT 1168 FOR THE SPX

WITH THE STOP --- 2ND TRADE TODAY

MANAGE THE STOP

11:12 AM

http://mises.org/rothbard/agd/chapter10.asp

11:06 AM

TARGET TO COVER AND EXIT THE TRADE IS NEAR 1162

10 POINT OBJECTIVE

LOWER THE STOP

11:02 AM

1168.02 now for the SPX <<<<< LOWER THE STOP <<<<<<<<<

TO THE SHORT ENTRY POINT AT 1171.94

BREAK EVEN HERE NOW --- RISK FREE

PROTECT PROFITS

10:57 am

I see a double Top for the SPX

Short and Holding with the Stop for the trade

10:55 AM

1171.94 <<<<<<<<< SHORT THE SPX HERE ( PUTS )

2 point stop ... quick and dirty

Mr. Panic

A shorter term trading day cycle that has been working since the Jan top (actually beforehand also)(also got the April 23rd top) came into play yesterday and voila we got the turn today. We're headed back to new lows.
McClellan Oscillator reached a ratio-adjusted level of -14 yesterday and it reached -10 ratio/adj.(Nasdaq version) three days after the April 4,2000 minimeltdown or the rebound high before embarking onto new lows. (I normally don't use ratio-adjusted numbers but there are the only version I can find in the historical record---(-14) ratio-adjusted===-60 approx. traditional McOsc. In the ensuing decline, the McClellan Oscillator achieved an even greater negative reading than registered at April 4 mini-meltdown.

A friend

My advice to the new trader is not to trade. If you have capital, buy something nice with it like a house or a business, private or public, that you like. Put some in gold and some in cash.

Most importantly, spend your time doing something highly productive, like making shoes or picking up garbage or devising a cheap, clean energy source or writing a novel.

Don't support gobbledygook magic posing as rigor or hard work.

If you trade and you are successful, your method has been luck.

If you trade and you are unsuccessful, your method has been luck.

Twin imposters, the "winning" trade and the "losing" one.

da bear

Paul,

I have gold as completing five waves higher in a D wave. Now gold should make a higher low in a wave E down to complete CYCLE II.

CYCLE I ended in spring 2008. Wave A down into Nov. '08 at about $700. B wave up to $1224, a C wave down to about $1,040 or so. D wave top at $1,249.60 showed aspects of a bull move within a cyclical bear. E wave down should go below $1,100 at least.

da bear

JT

"Speaking of head & shoulders, couple of weeks ago I pointed the the right shoulder being established in the CRB. Of course I caught a lot of crap from amateurs. Anybody want to argue with me now?" - Mamma

POINTING OUT a right shoulder on the CRB is one thing.
Actually having shorts on and trading is an entirely different matter.
As I recall, you conveniently ignored any question regarding the latter.

Anyone can observe, watch, and point out.
Putting an actual TRADE on is entirely different.

New Jordans

Thanks for taking the time to share this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. Wish you make a further progress in the future, I will always look through your website.

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