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« Market Technicals Signal Sell In May | Main | The Diamond Formation »

Monday, May 03, 2010


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Hank, you were very emphatic last week that the market would tank. Was Friday's 150 point drop it?


Yelnick thanks for the poke. I appreciate it.

I will keep following ... at this point I think it likely to be quite some time before we have 'the facts'.

I did come across something else that is interesting, and I agree likely. Yet I had not thought of it. All the data from this rig could have been transmitted in real time to a BP drilling center of sorts, that is until it stopped. The oil patch likes data and are into monitoring things big time, include remotely. If this true, in this case, it is likely BP has all the data and knows the exact or near exact chain of events that occurred.

This event is going to furnish opportunities for lots of lawyers.



BP is making quite a bit of progress, so it seems. Closed the annular ram on the BOP it appears, and leak has slowed. You traders might want to test the waters on BP?

If the annular ram works, one would suspect the rest of the BOP works. I am not a BOP expert, I did read the BOP shear can not likely function correctly, if certain types of tools are still in the hole.


Hank Wernicki

40 points the last 2 trading days !

get the trades here :



nspolar, I will keep adding to this post and might put it at the top of the blog for a while, so please add any insights or links you think relevant and I will put them into the top level post


Hank, do you have a long-term track record you can post?


W/r to the indices .....

I follow a bullish board. They have been quite ebulent, and all predicting new highs, as the markets melt on up. Likewise they have been poking fun of bears, to the extreme.

As most of us know w/r to the markets what goes around comes around, and vice versa. So it is often best not to poke to much fun at those in misery.

One of these bulls exclaimed the other day, 'I knew it, I knew it ... the old proverbial ED in progress'. Or something like that.

What he was referring to was a prediction from a bear board he was bashing about an ED in progress here. I believe the bear board probably had the count a bit wrong, in any case, but .....

But could an ED be in progress?

I am not a day trader so the SPX is not of great interest to me. I actually follow and chart the DOW more so than I do the SPX. But I usually look at the SPX.

Did the DOW and the SPX go into a 'vth' wave about the 23rd or 24th, and is that vth wave an ED? It is easier to see on hourly charts (which I do not have here).

If what comes around goes around or whatever, HW's big dump will start after we finish this wavelet up.

Will look more tonight on the hourlies.



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Yelnick, now read this.

BP obviously is having some major internal communication issues. The right does not appear to know what the left is up to. Tony Hayward is probably fit to be tied.

Now one may begin to understand why/how human error often enters into the chain of events that causes these issues. It is often the case during oil field projects of major size that the right and the left are not in the same ball park.

Gotta head out for a while.




Great post. What a mess.

Here is a great one from Hussman on transversality violations:

Dent sees potential for up til August, then lights out.

I'm not betting on that, but it does feel like we are heading for a real train wreck.


Hoch, I can buy the Dent scenario. A B wave shortly, then a summer rally to around Sp1250-75, then the hard Sept drop



"Hock, I can buy the Dent scenario."

Yes, he thinks the financials may lead us down by a month or two.

In view of the Dent timing, any thoughts on where China fits in? Faber is talking crash in the next 9 to 12 months I believe.

If indeed Prechter/Dent have it right, I didn't think it would feel this way (calm before the storm I guess). One thing for sure though is that we have drifted a long way from our past. I'm watching the Election race over in England. Seems to me the best thing that could happen to the Conservatives is a hung parliament with the libs and stiffs forming a coalition. A year or 2 from now, it will be far easier to wave goodbye to the Great Society.



Hock, I have been steadily preparing a China post, but have no firm view at the moment. As with the Olympics, they will try to make the Shanghai Expo work. I suspect China begins to fall when events overwhelm it, specifically, a rebirth of the financial crisis out of Europe.

Canadian Money

Is that a quasi Head and Shoulders Top on the SP500, one that predicts a drop to at least 1140? I classify it as quasi because the volume pattern is not ideal for this type of pattern. In addition, counting from the March 2009 low, one could argue that the rally is very close to the upper channel line of a possible five wave count.

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