search elliott


  • Google
Share/Bookmark

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

FlagCounter

  • Where From?
    free counters
Related Posts with Thumbnails

« Market is Turning Into a Goat Rodeo | Main | Three Scenarios and a Wildcard »

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Mamma Boom Boom

Showing below, is a composite of what I've been prognosticating for the past week. My main concern, at this point, is that I'm not bullish enough.
---------------

Ladies and gentlemen: I believe we are witnessing a successful test of the May 6th low. I now have 4 short term buy signals, which is in addition to other obvious signals.


"Rock On"


Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Thursday, May 20, 2010 at 07:46 AM


--------------------------


You've just gotta love the looks of the SPY Chart.


Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Tuesday, May 25, 2010 at 07:36 AM


-----------------------------


Looks like some of the so-called smart money was scooping up blue chips, this afternoon.


Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Tuesday, May 25, 2010 at 01:36 PM


----------------------------


Hank, that's the 2nd time you've made that prediction. I respect your work, but I really hope your wrong. Because I am solidly on a buy signal, good for several months. While the May 6th low did not hold, it's still a classic bottoming process. I have not backed the truck up, yet, but have been nibbling.


Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 06:37 AM


-----------------------------


>Mamma: I'm curious - what in this market is giving you a buy signal?<


Late last week I told you that I had 4 solid buy signals. One of those has been reinforced since then. I don't divulge those, since they are part of my proprietary technical program, but they are nothing to sneeze at. As I said twice, this environment is very similar to Aug 07.


Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 07:14 AM


-----------------------------


On the 'very short term' we're a little over-cooked. But that should right itself fairly quickly. At this point, I want to be long going into the weekend.


Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 07:23 AM


------------------------------


>On the 'very short term' we're a little over-cooked. But that should right itself fairly quickly.<


About 3:30 that junk-yard dog came around the corner and bit some of those young boys in the ass.


Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:50 PM


------------------------------


Mamma (1)


Hank (0)


Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Thursday, May 27, 2010 at 07:29 AM

Michael

Yesterday's late session sell-off stopped right at the 50% retracement on the close. Yet another FULL MOON low. Long ACI, BTU, CLF, NRP, and FCX.
:)

upstart

Ma-voulous Mamma!

JT

For the first time since Nov. 5, the majority goes bearish in the American Association of Individual Investors survey. Bearish sentiment rose to 50.9%, up 17.2 points, while bullish investors fell to 29.8% and neutral to 19.3%

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

Carl Futia NAILED it again!!!

JT

NYSE Advancers outnumber Decliners by an 8.5 to 1 ratio. It's difficult to fight that kind of tape, for sure.

Also, Investers Intelligence reported the highest number of Bearish newsletter writer's for the year at 29.2%

da bear

EWI's chart is showing 1,173 as the wave 2 top. I think that it is instead the wave 4 top. then five smaller waves down completed Primary 1. Primary 2 could run for a few weeks (July 4th top?), and will help oil put in it's 'B' wave rally off the 2008 highs, and help put in gold and silver's 'v' of 5 of B top. Then all the markets can decline together.

Oh, and in commodities I came across a long-term chart that is showing the CRB needing to put in a final C wave down of big WAVE 4 before a HUGE WAVE 5 spike. So the CRB 'B' top was two years ago, and we have come off that and need one last futile grasp higher before commodities too go lower along with stocks and metals. Oh yeah, this is a chart that goes back to the year 1450.


da bear

Mr. Panic

Most indices are in the gap zone from last Thursday. I just noticed an interesting fractal on the 60 min chart. Last Wednesday's high=equivalent to Sept 2008 high before the freefall. The subsequent drop to the 1044 low earlier this week is the equivalent of the October 2008 to March 2009 drop with Thursday's gap down the equivalent to October 2008s waterfall. The subsequent bounce is the equivalent of March 2009 to April 2010 rally. Last Wednesday's doji bar around 1110 to 1115 should be the magnet for this rally.

Wags

"Daneric is today's contrarian, finding the inverted head & shoulders "so obvious" that he thinks instead we will end short of that target."

Not surprising at all.
Daneric is a PERMA-BEAR.

He wouldn't know how to play the long side if a loaded gun was pointed at his head. He's worthless as a technician and his putting an elliott wave count on the VIX is truly mind-boggling. He's the David Rosenberg of bloggers.

Wags

"EWI's chart is showing 1,173 as the wave 2 top. I think that it is instead the wave 4 top. then five smaller waves down completed Primary 1. Primary 2 could run for a few weeks (July 4th top?), and will help oil put in it's 'B' wave rally off the 2008 highs, and help put in gold and silver's 'v' of 5 of B top. Then all the markets can decline together."

- da bear

Agreed 100%.

I can just envision this rally going a lot farther than all of the perma-bear Elliotticians want.

Excellent post "da bear". See ya on 4th of July!

Cicero

Do you mean June 4 instead of July 4? rally for a "few" weeks is only June.

Account Deleted


Russell 2000 Index takes a new turn in the hourly chart

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/russell-2000-index-takes-new-direction.html

Thank you

OracleLurker

Not to become CarlLoserFutia but has Carl ever predicted an intermediate term down phase ever? I mean i'm sure he has but i don't recall ever reading him predict one and we've been in a secular bear market for a decade now. It's not like you need to check his blog that often to know he's predicting that a strong move to 1300 will soon be under way... just as he predicted on April 23rd. Maybe his style is just so different from mine that i just don't can't grasp it but I have to actually be right about the market's direction on an intermediate term time frame to succeed.

Wave Rust

DG,
How deep was my 4th?

I suggest that it was deep enough to be a 2 but one degree higher.

Amazingly bullish potential now.

Could
go
all
the
way
to
spx
1330
!!

Yelnick,
Obama picked door #1 and didn't switch. He got a goat named Timmy.
He shoulda switched too.

Glenn Loser Neely

WHERE IS DG?

IS HE STILL BROKE AND HOMELESS?

I TOLD YOU GUYS...THAT DG WAS A GAMBLER!!

JA JA JA

DG's bangin' your daughter

Alive and well bangin' your daughter for all she's worth Michael —er, I mean, Glenn Loser Nealy

ja ja ja back at you pool scum!

Glenn Loser Neely


I only have a son and he likes Ricky Martin..
Keep him happy DG.!!

Glenn Loser Neely

DG's bangin' your daughter

YOUR SON is the one that's gay Mikey so you go take care of him. I'm quite happy with your bastard daughter for now -she said you've never acknowledged her existence for palimony reasons -it figures.

Besides spawning a gay son you are also a cheap, bitter worthless bastard that lost all his money mis-trading Neely's advise.

No wonder your mama is kicking you out of her basement! I don't have a cardboard box for you but my uncle will be glad to donate one of his stud bull's ejaculation buckets if that helps you out.

Account Deleted

Apple Inc Buy signal in daily chaRT

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/apple-inc-daily-chart-buy-signal.html

Thank you

Paul


It's good that Hochberg finally got this H&S finally right. He's come a long way since the June 06 EFF:

http://i214.photobucket.com/albums/cc152/asusenior/ff.jpg

Min

Don't worry Paul;

Hoch's next faux pas is just around the corner. Much like this bear market, he's come a long way but has a long way to go still before anyone, other than rookie newbys of course, will trust him as anything but a fairly reliable contrary indicator...

Steven_737

Hi min;

it is a long time that you have not posted a chart - wave count.

what are you up to? what is your take on the market structure?

cheers :) :)

Account Deleted

Intraday hourly chart of APPLE INC shows the stock testing resistance line.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/apple-hourly-chart-resistance-line.html

Thank you

Account Deleted

Nasdaq 100 resistance line seems to be strong. Not able to break it till now

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/nasdaq-100-resistance-continues.html

Thank you

Mamma Boom Boom

Did you ever see money fall out of the sky? That seems to be happening, today. I wonder if it's because it's the last day of the month.

(ponder..ponder)

Min

Short-term, wave 2 of 3 of C is unfolding.

Medium-term, Markets heading down but don't expect them to break March '09 lows (if they do it won't be by much).

Longer-term, we are in a Grand Super-Cycle wave 4 triangle. Like I said last year, think 1970s style markets on steroids and that's what I think will end up transpiring.

•Currently Long the US Dollar since late October 2009 (documented on this blog for the benefit of the "Paper-Trader" Gestapo)

•Long Ag and Au Since December 2008 (also documented on this blog for the Paper Traders Gestapo's benefit)

•Closed NDX/QQQQ longs opened In March '09 in October '09 for hell of a good year (also documented here for the paper police's benefit)

•Stopped out of small NDX short trades 3 times January, Feb, March —not documented here

•Closed NDX short opened late April '10 earlier this week for a good gain. Not documented here.

•Currently long NDX from Wednesday's close nicely in the money with a tight stop.

I get rather busy at times so I'm not day trading very much like I was in '08. After the good fortune I had that year I also promised my wife I'd cool it so I wouldn't give it all back.

I had some good luck in '08 —no doubt! I am not delusional thinking that I can do that over and over at will either.

Trading is a tough game and demands 100% dedication. 110% concentration and a good dose of luck temperence and prudence.

Thanks for asking Steven.

BTW, why "737"? are you a pilot?

Account Deleted


Dow Jones 5 Minutes down ward channel that may break on the upside.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/dow-jones-5-minutes-downward-channel.html

Thank you

Paul

Min, actually I was being sarcastic. Of course, Hochberg will never really change. The guy has too much bias programmed into him from years of being associated with Prechter and his association.

Roger D.

Where's the exit please??

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/79c2168f-4114-4b9a-99e1-27a35c1ade24

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/2fd62134-32d9-4cd6-917a-abe19293ace9

Roger D.

nspolar

Roger ... suggestion

Gauge the sentiment on Yelnicks Blog.

During the last big dip it was obvious, and lead by Yelnicks posts. The forced 5 waver was an ABC. This dip is not as clear, but I seem to have seen and continue seeing a lot of premature bottom pickers, and an end to 5 waves. Yelnicks posts have been of the same flavor.

I also consider time. I think you and I are on the same page more than we are not. IF this is a Big C to the bottom now... how many days down might should we see, before the first major rebound? I'm thinking a bit more than we have.

ns

ns

Roger D.

ns,

I use MCD as a Dow proxy since it has the most bearish position. By my count it has done a 1, ABC up that finished this morning this morning. My count is we are in 1 of 3 now.

Down & down for now.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/3bf9a718-d689-4694-a066-022902591921

Roger D.

oops ns that's 3 of 3

RD

Account Deleted

Dow jones one hour chart with ichimoku cloud

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/dow-jones-one-hour-chart-may-find.html

Thank you

Account Deleted

There was negative divergence in DOW HOUR CHART

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/dow-jones-had-negative-divergence-in.html

Thank you

marketman

Once again, another RALLY starts just after 2PM Eastern. Like clockwork.
:)

Roger D.

The Dow EDT?????

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/f5c60b9b-a9d0-4040-92ea-1a407c14afed

da bear

min,


i think that you are right. this wave 2 of 3 of C could be an a-b-c rally going into perhaps the end of July or by Labor Day. and we have probably finished i and ii of wave 2.

on the long-term wave count, I think that we are in Millennial Wave 4, Grand Super Cycle C, with Super Cycle 3 down currently on-going. So Cycle 3 of Super Cycle 3 is coming up soon.

If so then that fits the picture of the "mother of all alternate counts" presented in Prechter's At the Crest of the Tidal Wave's Figure 5-7. so the 3 of C in that picture started at DOW 11,220 or such. This decline could take the DOW down to 911 or so in short order. A replay of the 1930 to 1932 collapse.

Oh, I think that the count of the 1929 era is off a little bit. My count makes more sense. If anyone wants to hear about it let me know!

gold is also on the verge of a C wave decline. I think gold is in the 'v' of 5 of B move up.
here is a link to a good wave count for gold: http://www.kitco.com/ind/rosen/may182010.html

A 'B' wave high would correlate to this wave 2 high in stocks. A 62% retrace would take the DOW to 10,666 or so. A 79% retrace would take the DOW to 10,900ish.

After this reflation rally is done, the smart money will head into pennies, nickels, and dimes. You can, err, bank on it! lol

da bear

Ask your local bank teller about change!

Michael

RIG (-2.60) DO (-4.60), OII (-5.57), and anything deepwater drilling related getting crushed today!

Michael

Light volume and someone pushed the sell program button at 3:45PM.

Roger D.

This pattern that I posted yesterday with a A,B,C,D,E ascending triangle that mirrors the USD seems to be playing out. If the larger triangle resolves the same as the smaller version in the chart,Tuesday should be down hard. A 3 of 3 should be in progress now. So much for the now infamous bottom H&S formation.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/1816f7ca-1668-411b-be97-b5070baafebd

Mamma Boom Boom

When preparing a summer cookout, which way do you prefer your corn?

-Boiled
-Nuked
-Wrapped & placed on your grill

Arnette

Someone put a Neely video on Youtube - has a couple neowave tips in it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCUuyzcz3S0

Arnette

Here's a Neowave video that popped up on Youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCUuyzcz3S0

Roger D.

I'll post these charts of McDonalds, the 5 minute displays weakness as it is downsloping and it should,given the rising wedge pattern in the daily chart.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/585ed803-498a-4338-9df1-422bb4139821

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/d264d14e-c1fc-476d-965d-73f6d5587b6d

I'm going to steam some corn and BBQ St. Louis ribs Sunday. I suggest pork as there should be plenty of BBQ'd bull next week.

This is a tuff racket.

Roger D.

Account Deleted

Weekly bullish engulfing in NETAPP INC

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/netapp-inc-weekly-bullish-engulfing.html

Thank you

upstart

Boiled

Min

Da Bear;

Thanks for sharing.

Rosen has been on that gold count for about a year now. I am familiar with Delta and can tell you Rosen's a cool cat but he's influenced a bit too much by Prechter and his timing suffers because of it.

Have you been trading gold based on Rosen's data? I'm glad I didn't. He's had a lot of angry subscribers from August to December when I last checked —a veritable mutiny as it was described to me.

Some of his subscribers lost a lot of money following his Rosen Letter advise so their anger was understandable I guess.

I don't think the expanded flat b-wave is in effect but if it happens I would gladly back up a couple Caterpillar 797Fs and load them with an RH400 Front Shovel. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

As for dow 911 or 400 or whatever, yikes!

Prechter's got himself a new 7.25 year cycle gimmick that magically makes everything fall in place, validates his premise and gives him a renewed conviction after wrongly sticking to his guns since DJIA was in the 2000's.

You gotta admire him for always being able to find the funky math that convincingly validates his 20+ year old premise. As his subscribers grow more and more disgusted he at least gives them something to hang their hat on so props for that.

Maybe Prechter's 7.25 year cycle theory is the way it oughta be but will it be? Did you know that when the DJIA wasn't declining impulsively in 2000 to 2002 he invented a new Elliott wave pattern that explained that as well? (I'm not kidding he actually did do that and explained it in an EWT somewhere around '02 or possibly '03). His "expanding leading diagonal" theory sounded very logical and air tight; it kept his P3 call alive and well through at least part of 2005 last I checked; it also probably made for a lot of losses to his subscriber's trading accounts as it was simply the wrong call at the time.

For someone who understands that prices are governed by the irrationalities and whims of human-beings and their emotions he sure gets stuck trying to figure the "logic and rationality" of it all. It doesn't work that way which is why I think he and Hochberg get it wrong so often.

I personally wouldn't trade or invest following the lead of an "analyst" that has a proven track record of 10% (my tabulated data)to 28% (cxo advisory's data) correct, but I can sure keep an eye on him, as fringe lunatics can ocassionaly get lucky by chance —not necesarily from sound methodology.

I know Prechter makes his work sound convincing, logical and air tight; if it's worked for you, more power to you but his track record is what it is and it says differently. Granted, no one has a crystal ball on the market but EWI is worse off than pretty much everyone else. I kid you not!

Check out Prechter's track record at this link:

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Prechter/.

Steven_737

"BTW, why "737"? are you a pilot?"

no Min; just a lucky number;

"As for dow 911 or 400 or whatever, yikes!"

By the way, as in 2008, I still think that when SPX 667 is retested, 550 will hold.

Back of the envelope Fibonacci calculation: 38.2% of 1576 (2007 top) = 602

also 38.2 * 14198( 2007 top) = 5423

i.e. DOW 5400~6000 bottom

and SPX 540~600

cheers :) :)

da bear

Well, at least the alternate count in the current issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast is right!
Yes, the heart of the May 2010 crash was a '3' followed by a 'fill the gap' bounce wave 4, and a slightly lower low for wave '5.' Just like 1929, 1987, and the Fall of 2008.

Strangely enough our current drop is resembling the "mother of all alternate counts", Figure 5-7 in At The Crest of the Tidal Wave. Of course, Prechter prefaced the Figure 5-7 alternative count with "the odds of this occurring are virtually nil."

The gold chart of the current EWFF on page 7 resembles the Rosen count. But EWFF has the truncated '5' completing a C wave. I have no idea how you can get a C wave from that. Looks more like a B wave. Looks like gold's final (5) is not done yet, with a final 5 of 5 of B target near $1,300. This is closer to my wave count that I talked about in my May Edition of my June Rant: http://www.phpbbplanet.com/damessageboard/viewtopic.php?t=18326&mforum=damessageboard

ok, the Rant is rather childish but I want to be on the record if my counts turn out to be right.


da bear


P.S. The current market in gold looks like the rally into the B WAVE high in 1975 that Prechter and Frost talk about in "ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE" on pages 178-182. Figure 6-11 on page 179 shows that the B WAVE made a wave 3 high just above the previous all-time nominal high, then had a quick sell-off for a somewhat higher high. Then a C wave down that looks like the one Rosen is calling for. Of course, the count in Figure 6-11 had a full five waves before the large A-B-C correction, but the run-up to $175 looks better as a WAVE 3.

Min

Bear;

I noticed that EWI alternate counts were correct way more often than their preferred counts from 2000-2005.

Looks like that tendency is still in play?

Like your rant. Nothing wrong with having a little fun as trading can get pretty boring at times.

If your count pans out I'll back you up to the nay-sayers.

I'm familiar with the count in your P.S. I wouldn't mind it repeating one bit. I'll keep my fingers crosed for it and for being able to find Au and Ag for sale at those prices without ridiculously high premiums...

Min

Steven 737:

Re:

"By the way, as in 2008, I still think that when SPX 667 is retested, 550 will hold.

Back of the envelope Fibonacci calculation: 38.2% of 1576 (2007 top) = 602

also 38.2 * 14198( 2007 top) = 5423

i.e. DOW 5400~6000 bottom

and SPX 540~600"

You're a good numbers technician and that's always an asset.

The comments to this entry are closed.