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« Bubble Echo in Commodities UPDATED | Main | AUD Tumble Down Under »

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

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trailblazer

Massive head and shoulders top in the EURUSD going back to 2005, very clear on the monthly chart, has violated the neckline. The best case scenario could see a pullback to 1.28 - 1.3 to test the neckline, but dont try and be a hero and try to trade the pullback. PLAY WITH FIRE AND U WILL GET BURNED!

Credit where credit is due, EWI has been spot on with USD bull market. Pity all the central banks who sold off USD for EURO and GBP. It is true central bankers are the worst market timers in the world.

trendlines

Bombay SENSEX dished out a trendline break, and may be heading for a correction:

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/05/sensex-trendline-break.html

Account Deleted

I think the end has just about begun for all World Markets,Currency,commodities,stocks etc.Sell whtever one can.Ofcourse at every intermittent rises

Account Deleted

DG !!

Can u please have a look at the following chart.These are daily,weekly,monthly charts of the same stock,Usha Martin Education and solutions(UMESL).Here is the link :

http://yfrog.com/fvqlvjx


Regards
VB

A

Great post!

Yelnick, any thoughts on how this AUD carry trade might unwind? E.g., do you expect to see a repeat of a 2008 style collapse (i.e., fall off a cliff), or more bumps along the road this time around? Bit of a perfect storm at the moment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWa0dZMHYeE

Mamma Boom Boom

>ZH has been on a roll on this issue, predicting chaos tomorrow in markets: One bond trader said he expected Wednesday's trading session to be one of the most volatile in living memory: "It will be complete chaos, I really don't know what the Germans think they are doing."<

Well, so much for ZH opinion!

Hockthefarm

I guess it is easy to look back and find fault but the whole concept of a Eurozone seems ludicrous.

Did someone really believe that Greece (without the brains to even collect taxes) could go toe to toe with Germany? I find it hard to believe:

http://tinyurl.com/26kuxjr

Hock

nspolar

nspolar stated gold would top on or before the 17th of May. Is that gonna hold? Hui tanking.

1st predict was Shanghai topping on or before 14th of April. Dead nutz.

Commodity shorts doing fine.

All gold shorts now in the black. It pays too 'anticipate'.

Next major prediction will be the Big Bottom. Long ways out for that one however.

ns

upstart

Being realized...progressing to at least DOW 10200, then may get an early June bounce to position further short for the rest of the decline to the target month.

Hockthefarm

Yelnick:

I just read the Karl Denninger post- it was a real eye opener. Do you agree with his premise?

Any chance for a follow-up post discussing this issue?

Seems to strike at the heart of the problem and may explain why so many average Americans are really pissed off.

Hock

Roger D.

The "market" still believes the system can be saved or there's still hope. Still in the triangle or GS wedge. The chart is Simon property group(REIT)

It will break.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/70192611-23ae-445c-858a-6c747f1ce7a9

trendlines

Hi Yelnick,

Shanghai Composite is due for a rebound in the very short-term. Here's the chart:

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/05/shanghai-composite-very-short-term-due.html

Roger D.

The Dow

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/9bf2a09c-b376-48a4-9d36-e499863d5769

nspolar

Roger, nice charts and comments on the '29 crash. I am in agreement.

I believe we are now in a 'C' of a big ABC here. C's imo come in various variety's. I have thought the most likely C we will have here is much like the one in the '29 crash. A meat grinder, that is long in time (relatively speaking), and fairly tight on the channel.

But history is never the same, so we shall see.

ns

marketman

Looks like Mish doesn't know the difference between restrictions on ?NAKED short-selling vs short-selling.

How absurd.

Wave Rust

Mish's chart is instructive about what the warning and destruction that was to come.

This close-up shows repetition of the same whipsaw were not buying opportinuties. They were 2nd chances to GET OUT.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNM&p=D&st=2008-01-19&en=2008-11-19&id=p08106718914

Can it happen again ,,,, Now? or, Later? FNM won't work because it is at "zero".

So, what will be the 'canary in the sinkhole' this time?


wave rust

Wave Rust

Duncan,

Fancy the paradox:
Germany bans short sellers at banks versus the just announced that Sen. Dodd will drop the requirement for banks to spin off derivatives operations!

That is hilarious to me. At least, Dodd's learning while reforming the disease's symptoms.

The disease is still prospering.

wave rust

marketman

Wave,

Why is it that people's READING COMPREHENSION is so horrible these days???

The German short-selling restriction is on NAKED shorting and NOT natural short-selling!

nspolar

marketman;

Yes but can you explain what this really means to an individual investor?

Correct me if I wrong. I can naked short equities in the US, but my clearing house can not. I.e. my broker has to find shares to lend me to go short, else I can not do it. AND my broker's balance sheets always have to add up. They can have more short short shares than what they have long. Not too many years back I never had a problem going short individual equities. Following an apparent crack down by the SEC in the US, I often had trouble going short individual equities. So I more or less quit all that and use the inverse ETF's and just short indices.

If I am correct what does the German ban really mean? Did they previously allow net naked shorts ...i.e. there could be more short shares than long shares outstanding? Or now does an individual shorter have to hold in the limit as many long shares as short shares?

ns

Roger D.

Greece's loaded bazooka? Default and screw the banks. KD points out what is the indecision in the markets at this moment in time.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2334-To-Greece-Nut-Up-Or-Shut-Up.html

Glenn Loser Neely

IN MEMORIAM

DG, MY GAY SON, PASSED AWAY A FEW DAYS AGO IN HIS TRADING ACTIVITIES.
HE WAS LONG THE EURO AT 1.30 AND HE LOST ALL HIS MC DONALD'S CHECKS FOR THE NEXT 18 MONTHS.

THE FUNERAL WILL BE HELD AT THE NEO GARBAGE INSTITUTE HEADQUARTERS...
THE ONLY SPEAKER WILL BE HIS FORMER LOVER GLENNY NEELY.

PLEASE DO NOT SEND FLOWERS, PLEASE SEND MONEY TO PAY FOR THE GAMBLING DEBTS OF MY BASTARD SON DG.

THANKS.

GLENN LOSER NEELY

nspolar

marketman ... should have read "They can not have more short shares than what they have long."

If you or anyone knows all the rules I would like to know.

Been a lot of arguments on boards about all this over the years, me not included. I admit I am sure I have fully understood all of this.

ns

nspolar

Gartman on Gold.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/67017-dennis-gartman-on-gold

or

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1837861720100518

Are Denny boy and I early?

ns

marketman

It's pretty simple... If you are unable to LOCATE the stock from your broker, you are not allowed to sell a stock short, otherwise it is considered NAKED and ILLEGAL. Period.

And as far as the CDS market is concerned... the majority of it trades in LONDON, and not Germany. Think about that for a moment.

Mamma Boom Boom

nspolar, look at it this way: the entire world is completely upside down, because of trillions, even hundreds of trillions, of dollars wagered where the speculator holding the wagers has no interest in the underlying asset. If it weren't for all these naked positions, most of the worlds problems would be under control.

nspolar

"And as far as the CDS market is concerned... the majority of it trades in LONDON, and not Germany. Think about that for a moment."

Ah, now it makes a little more sense.

thanks.

ns

Michael

"If it weren't for all these naked positions, most of the worlds problems would be under control." - Mamma

Wrong.

Naked short positions have NOTHING to do with the fact that countries have racked up so much debt. To claim that "the world's problems would be under control" if there wasn't naked short selling ... is to be quite NAIVE and foolish.

I'm sorry, but you have no idea what you are talking about.

yelnick

Mamma, marketman, Michael , ns - reads my next post on this thread about naked shorts and what's up in Europe (after the AUD discussion)

Mamma Boom Boom

Michael, your such a numbskull. Put a dunce cap on and sit in the corner.

yelnick

Wave - great point. Merkel is right that the US leadership have been captured by the big banks. The Dodd bill is a joke. And yet Merkel was like John Belushi in animal House yesterday - she ran out of the building saying "who is with me?" and no one followed.

yelnick

Hock, I think the part of Denninger's rant that says "stop the lying" is correct and long overdue. At a high level the leadership in this country across almost all sectors and both parties has engaged in a giant pretense to feather their own pockets. Bear markets happen because investors realize they are being lied to. The scale and scope of the lies this time are so pervasive and so enormous that a big bad bear is due, the purpose of which is to wring the rottenness out of the system at all levels. Right now the bond vigilantes and shorts are the ONLY forces trying to put honest back into government policy, with perhaps the Tea Party movement becoming a second force (at least they got one guy nominated yesterday).

The fundamental disappointment with Obama is he portrayed himself as the great reformer than turned out to be on the take with the rest of them, or just clueless. That pretend Obama would be a great national hero right now. The real Obama continues to fade as a political force - witness yesterday.

The big tell for me is how Merkel's move yesterday is already a bust, and the Euro-TARP likely a bust (too early to be certain). This means that we have gone one bailout too far, and bailouts will no longer work to fool the masses and continue to benefit the classes.

As to Denninger's specific policies, some make sense and some seem impractical.

yelnick

A, my post today on the AUD is meant to answer your request

So Says The Fool That Believes That The Worlds Problems Revolve Around Naked Short Selling

"Michael, your such a numbskull. Put a dunce cap on and sit in the corner." - Mamma

A

A, my post today on the AUD is meant to answer your request

Many thanks!

Hockthefarm

Y:

Bear markets happen because investors realize they are being lied to. The scale and scope of the lies this time are so pervasive and so enormous that a big bad bear is due, the purpose of which is to wring the rottenness out of the system at all levels.

Nicely said. Couldn't agree more.


Right now the bond vigilantes and shorts are the ONLY forces trying to put honest back into government policy, with perhaps the Tea Party movement becoming a second force (at least they got one guy nominated yesterday).

I have trouble here with the bond vigilantes, as in where the fluck were they during the 2000's in the US. Why did they buy Greek bonds in the first place? Would you have bought Greek debt 2 years ago??????


The fundamental disappointment with Obama is he portrayed himself as the great reformer than turned out to be on the take with the rest of them, or just clueless. That pretend Obama would be a great national hero right now. The real Obama continues to fade as a political force - witness yesterday.

Sad but true I think.

Hock

Zendo

Chinese Government has no clue on what fiscal stimulus will do to a over heating economy, now they realize all the stimulus went to properties, commodities and stock speculation, they just want the tap to turn off, period.

Thats how they manage their planned economy. There is no in between. For those who anticipate there is a rebound of SSEC, be careful as the communist doesn't understand or care about stock investors, in early 2000-2005, their economy is going strong, but the market is not doing anything because the government decided not to support any stock investment.

Account Deleted

sp 500 forming a bullish pennant pattern

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/sp-500-pennant-in-5-minutes-chart.html

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