Sink Oh De Mayo

Big gap down at the open today bodes poorly for the bulls. The market pattern remains bearish, and with the problems in Europe widening when most everyone thought the Greek rescue would narrow them, the sands are shifting under the market. Oddly enough, market sentiment remains very bullish, which is bearish - it means we could have a lot of downside, as we have a lot of investors left to panic to the other side. EWI notes that a similar bullishness accompanied the last two corrections (Jun and Jan) in the Hope Rally. Tony Caldaro adds that the two prior corrections lasted around two to four weeks, suggesting this one runs into late May. His next target is Sp1146, then 1137, but notes we could to 1107. 

The nested 1-2 count worked this time like a charm. It worked so well, the STU has strengthened their count: rather than end the inside 1-2 down, today caused them to lengthen it. They have today's low as the end of wave i of (iii) down, with us in the wave ii bounce. This means the next run down will now be a triple 3: a little 3 of iii of (iii). This is the set up for a bigger gap down and a deeper drop. If we gap again at the next open, this is the triple 3. The wave structure is ambiguous, since the little wave ii could be breaking into an ABC first, and only has done A and part of B. C would be a small bounce back up before the fast drop. Given yesterday was a 90% down day and today was "only" 80% down, a small bounce is likely before the next 90% down move. 

A key issue is what it would take to confirm the drop as THE drop not just a B wave with a final run back up to new highs. The STU proposes to look at a drop larger than the prior two drops in both time and distance, which gives a target: lasting past May 20 and falling below Dow10363. Good stuff. Lots more in tonight's newsletter.

The STU count on Monday may have prejudiced some wave analysts to look for the end of iii or (iii) down rather than recast the drop today into merely wave i of (iii) down. It will be interesting to see if the students out-count the master. Let me highlight the two lead counts in this contest: 

• Daneric says that wave (iii) concluded today. After a wave (iv) bounce, a final wave (v) should carry to Sp1137-42. His chart:

   

• EWTrends has wave iii ending today. Wave iii is the inside wave to the larger degree wave (iii). We are meandering in wave iv, which could keep going sideways in a triangle with an apex around Sp1166. After inside wave v to complete wave (iii), we would have a larger wave (iv) and a wave (v) down blow a gap at Sp1124. His chart has slightly different numerology, with numbers 1 2 3 for the outside waves (i) (ii) (iii):

 
 

Comments

[nspolar]

vipul, you are reading too much in what I am saying.

I have been doing EW for ~ 10 years. It is the most difficult thing I have ever done, and I would like to think I have done some fairly difficult technical things. My EW record is quite mixed. I think it is something that takes a long time to get good at.

I have followed various.

Neely's book is the best reference I have, and I have read in multiple times, parts of it more. I still use it. I think it is very good.

My current problem with Neely is his Neowave, I do not like it, do not agree with it, and I think more recently he has just made an ass out of himself. Why I have no idea. His big public service call that the top was in about a year ago topped it all off. Who would pull such a stupid stunt? And why?

I followed Neely's neowave quite a while before concluding what I did. Imo he should have built on what he has in is book, and as I have stated I think his Neowave may be a coded ruse of his Neely EW. Who noz?

I do not follow anyone now, but don't mind hearing what they are up to. In fact it is probably a good thing to follow the gurus, the difficult issue is when to go with them and when to fade em.

'The Gambler' lyrics are great.

By the way I am not a ST trader. If anything too much the opposite. I need to find a medium and do a better job of identifying IT trends, which is what I prefer. Like get the whole wave, if you know what I mean.

ns

[Bird]

DG, Mythical PPT stepped in do you think? Anyone know if the myth is true?

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>Anyone know if the myth is true?<

Isreal...

[Account Deleted]

DNYSE Euronext Says There Were ’A Number of Erroneous Trades’ anton

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- NYSE Euronext said “there were a number of erroneous trades” during an almost 1,000-point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

“There were a number of erroneous trades,” said NYSE spokesman Rich Adamonis. “Our guys just told me Nasdaq is investigating the erroneous trades. What happened today in P&G for instance, the bad print was on Nasdaq, not here,” he said, referring to a 37 percent plunge in Procter & Gamble Co.

The Nasdaq said it is investigating the plunge.

Last Updated: May 6, 2010 15:57 EDT DG !!

Terminal as entire leg of a Triangle is not permissible.But terminal within the patterns(C of a Flat or a ZigZag) that form a leg of a triangle shouldnt be a problem I guess.Cos the presence of a Terminal within one of the parts of a leg of triangle doesnt make the entire leg impulsive cos Triangle is a corrective structure.

Also,If we consider a Terminal Impulse in the current assumed C wave the post pattern implication would just mean crossing of 11300 or 1220 on SNP and that would in anycase happen(even if its not a terminal here in C wave) if its a NEUTRAL TRiangle(since200) becos D of this Triangle could reach the point where B ended.

Regards
VB

[Account Deleted]

Whoops some problem with the BLOG here too.My previous message got posted along with this news piece

[DG]

"DG, Mythical PPT stepped in do you think? Anyone know if the myth is true?"

Could be. Someone wanted to buy despite the meltdown. Just curious who that would be and why not let the market fall, close on the lows and then buy big at the end of the day?

[DG]

"Terminal as entire leg of a Triangle is not permissible.But terminal within the patterns(C of a Flat or a ZigZag) that form a leg of a triangle shouldnt be a problem I guess.Cos the presence of a Terminal within one of the parts of a leg of triangle doesnt make the entire leg impulsive cos Triangle is a corrective structure."

But the problem with that is the Terminal, as the name implies, should end a pattern at two Degrees. The one at which it forms and the one above it. Putting a Terminal at the end of a leg of a Triangle, if it isn't wave-E of the Triangle, doesn't do that.

Also, there are time and retracement requirements for Terminals (a Terminal must be fully retraced in less than 50% of the time it took to form and often in less than 25% of the time) which are quite specific and don't fit in with the time and retracement rules governing the relationships between the five segments of a Triangle.

[Account Deleted]

DG !!

Great.I have got it clear in my mind now.Good explanation.So now we could look for a 5 th failure.Lets see wht happens.

Regards
VB

[DG]

"

I'm LONG.
here comes a big run into the close!

:)

Posted by: Michael | Thursday, May 06, 2010 at 12:48 PM "

I hope you were fully-margined on that long trade. I don't make it a practice to laugh at other's bad trades, but since you've been a major dick since the first day you posted last year, I'll make an exception in your case.

Ain't so easy in real-time is it Mr. Sockpuppet?

[DG]

VB,

"

DG !!

I sense a 3rd of 1st has gotten over and we will now witness a time consuming 4 th Wave.Most probably a Triangle.Cos I find a FLAT in the 2nd Wave position.SO hopefully no more fireworks for atleast a couple of days.

Regards
VB"

This is my initial read as well. One thing I don't like is how quickly we retraced so much of that waterfall decline. Neely says that Impulse waves should get retraced slower than Corrective waves.

Now, if we do go on to form a Contracting Triangle, that will enable us to say that the snap-back rally was the wave-A of that Triangle and the Triangle will probably end at a lower high and then thrust down to end the initial :5. Since the decline was so large relative to the likely 1st :5, this would argue for a 5th-wave failure. But, 5th-Failures are more likely at the end of a pattern (much like the Terminal we've been discussing), so I wouldn't like to see one here. I think more likely would be that the 5th makes a marginal new low and the 1st and 5th aren't equal, but have some Fib relationship (1 being .618X of 5, for example).

We'll see. the important thing right now is that the top of today's decline holds.

[Michael]

"I hope you were fully-margined on that long trade. I don't make it a practice to laugh at other's bad trades, but since you've been a major dick since the first day you posted last year, I'll make an exception in your case.

Ain't so easy in real-time is it Mr. Sockpuppet?"

Posted by: DG | Thursday, May 06, 2010 at 02:13 PM

Yes Darrin, I got LONG around 3:30PM Eastern a number of commodity/energy stocks such as ACI, BTU, CLF, and FCX.

What were you doing at the time... besides picking your nose???

If you were to actually take a look at how they closed ( as opposed to posting like the asswipe that you are ), you'd see that I have profitable "marks" heading into tomorrow morning.

But thanks for your "concern".
Quite touching, especially coming from someone as naive, immature, and ignorant as yourself.

Time for a Beer.

:)

[DG]

"What were you doing at the time... besides picking your nose???"

I didn't have to "do" anything, I was obviously already positioned, moron.

"I got LONG around 3:30PM Eastern a number of commodity/energy stocks such as ACI, BTU, CLF, and FCX."

Sure you were. Why wouldn't you be, since you were calling for that "big run into the close".

Contrast your timing with mine, posted 3 minutes before the bottom, peckerwood.

"Scratch that. Any .99 SPY point rally that takes less than 28 minutes is a buy. I would expect a short-squeeze at some point to trigger that, but today looks more like a forced selling day.

Posted by: DG | Thursday, May 06, 2010 at 11:44 AM"

[JT]

"Contrast your timing with mine, posted 3 minutes before the bottom, peckerwood." - DG

Interesting that you call yourself an active trader, yet have time to post during the 2-minute window of the biggest reversal that the US stock market has ever seen.

I'm sorry DG, but everyone here can see how insecure you are, and how much of a professional BS artist/blogger wanna-bee trader you are.

NO ONE takes time away from trading the greatest stock market reversal known to mankind, to post on an anonymous Internet blog.

No one cares about blogging.
Most traders care about MAKING money.
Except for you... cause you obviously don't trade.
You'd rather blog.

Everyone here can see that.

[DG]

"NO ONE takes time away from trading the greatest stock market reversal known to mankind, to post on an anonymous Internet blog."

You know, I don't really have a hard time doing both, since I pretty much only watch and trade 3 things (SPY, QQQQ and IWM) and I only use one method (NeoWave and my modifications of it) which doesn't require any indicators or watching for news or or moving averages or anything and I have all my entry prices and times calculated in Excel as my set-ups evolve, so I am quite focused on only a couple of things during the trading day. I was actually busier in the morning, but once the market reversed off the rally to SPY 116.2 and came down to challenge and eventually break the earlier low, I knew EXACTLY what the plan for going long would be, so the rest of the day was just an exercise in being patient.

When you have a logical plan and stick to it, trading isn't really that stressful. It's more about patience and consistency in applying your "edge", just like a poker player.