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Tuesday, May 18, 2010


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New Trader

Rumour- China may soon release a second stimulus package.


This just in:

Cramer: Six Reasons to Buy Gold Right Now

Time for a short term but significant correction?

Wave Rust

GS is right ,,,, 1.35euro, at least.

you know what that means for US indices.

hang on

wave rust


Here is a note from Richard Russell. I'm not a big fan and know some smart folks who use him as a contrarian indicator.

But every dog could have his day I guess:


Sounds like the bear is in the box.


With Germany banning naked CDS short selling, the Euro is really smelling rotten. 1.35 might be a tad optimistic.
Yelnick... I hope you post some info on this, and put it in plain English for people like me.


The more I read on this move by Germany, the more they say something is very wrong and about to expose itself. They some it up by saying this move is beyond stupid. So what's up?


Sum it up:)

Mamma Boom Boom

>With Germany banning naked CDS short selling, the Euro is really smelling rotten. 1.35 might be a tad optimistic.<

Two things: (1)the Euro would need to fall to about 85 cents to be a real problem (2)banning naked anything is a good thing (in the markets, that is)

Mamma Boom Boom

China-man's index could be at or near a bounce zone.

Mamma Boom Boom

Funny how all dem bulls went 'MOO' then disappeared, never to be seen again.


MHD - summing it up:
- the Euro will continue to fall at least to $1.18 or slightly below
- The ECB is not intervening to support it
- the naked short ban will perversely drive CDS levels higher for PIIGS bonds
- the market has done the math:


MHD, on the short ban, here is a good post to read: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/05/18/ahh-note-to-germany-short-selling-bans-dont-work/

The Germans are banning naked shorts, not all shorts. The received wisdom on short bans is they have a temporary boost, as shorts close out their positions, but then undermine confidence in the instruments affected, so exaggerate the prior trend (which had been down).

The best summary I have seen is this: " All these short sale restrictions are going to do is create a vacuum. Once the shorts are driven out these shares will plunge."

There is a nuance here, in that naked shorts can short more shares than exist in the market, so banning that with stocks makes sense. Leaves normal shorts to keep market honest. The studies I have seen have been about short bans, which tend to result in market crashes. Naked short bans, however, may have less of an impact - the pressure is reduced but the trend is not changed. Maybe it doesn’t lead to a crash, but it does not prevent the drop.

I may post more on this tonight.

Wave Rust

you havent got a clue at all about this market stuff, or trading or analysis or e-wave, do you?

wave rust

So, Momma, which trades first, dow 10,200 or dow 11,000?

Any trader, economist, investor, currency trader, suburban housewife knows the answer to that question

Mamma Boom Boom

Wave Rust< I didn't take you for a imbecile.

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