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« ObamaCare Killed the Recovery | Main | Whipsaw Market Roasts the Bears »

Friday, June 11, 2010

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Wave Rust

chico,
"I'm arguing the "true" low is somewhat higher than the low print of the day"

why do you think the low was higher?
that implies that the low is false.

is that a traders cynicism?

the bids were getting hit so fast my feed was probably 30 seconds slow. it was the gaps and speed that was so funny because the traders were winning against the machines. traders stepped out and the machines traded against each other. machines are wired to save themselves ,,,, such as "bid $0.01 per, if no ask". why? bevause they know (coders) that there are real conditional stops waaaayyyyy below the market price of a stock, ETF or option/futures. also there are brokerage generated margin stops.

chico, those are and were the conditions that gave the markets and stocks the speed of dropping and rising right back. It was over in 20 minutes.

But that was not the cause of the crash. The conditions are the same except for the new collars. collars do little to hold up a real crash if that is what the traders and investors see coming. in fact, I think it makes it worse.

the only thing that can stop a crash is the market or the stock runs out of buyers. No buyers = the low.

or President for Life Obama taking over the markets and declaring them unconstitutional.

wave rust

Mr. Panic

In 1929, the 34rd trading day off the high was gap down that took out the early October low (the equivalent of SP 1040 in 2010). Monday will be the 34rd day off the April 23rd high. Also some crucial numerology came into play on Friday. Maybe I'll elaborate on Monday. There is still a cycle low that might come into play on June 14th unbelievable as it might seem which could only happen in a 1929 like scenario. Either that or it inverted.

Wave Rust

most people answer 'Yes' to this one now ,,,, like 70%, 20% don't know (they're considering it), and the rest are still wondering who that guy is on the billboard.

But the real question is this one here. FT has already done a cover with the two of them. I never thought any person could exceed Jimmuh in incompetence, but the oil spill is shedding new light on Obama and his staff's uselessness in a crisis, but thats because they're marxists.


missin ya Jimmuh

wave rust

Roger D.

The well is almost a mile deep and they drilled far deeper than that to hit the oil. they hope the relief well will be finished in 3 months. It will be like hitting the size of a pie plate to intersect the reservoir. Now I think putting a man on the moon might be easier.

BP will declare bankruptcy and of course, all this shit get's blamed on the POTUS. I almost puked when I saw that billboard of the last POTUS. I'm not nauseated yet with the present one. You would really have to stretch a boner to beat GW.

rc

HighSchoolKid: your vulgarity doesn't impress anyone with your manliness. It only calls it into question. If you're really a kid, then perhaps you're just trying to act grown-up. But, this is the wrong way. If you have low-self esteem, then try to gain it by building good character.

highschoolkid trader

I think the odds are extremely low, that we would get a meaningful drop. The multi-month uptrend is in full gear, IMO.

Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Saturday, June 12, 2010 at 01:12 PM


That's alright pretty mama, a little goes a long way if you're leveraged right. Ridin' this thing up and down can be fun, try it.

highschoolkid trader

HighSchoolKid: your vulgarity doesn't impress anyone with your manliness. It only calls it into question. If you're really a kid, then perhaps you're just trying to act grown-up. But, this is the wrong way. If you have low-self esteem, then try to gain it by building good character.

Posted by: rc | Saturday, June 12, 2010 at 06:12 PM

OK Dad, but if somebody thought you might be "turning the other cheek" wouldn't you want to clear that up, pronto?

I said I was sorry if doing this offended anyone.

I really don't have low self-esteem if you knew me you would know. I never discuss my sex life in public or anythin' like that.

I'm a good dude especially for my age. My girlfriend was a stripper when I first met her trying to work her way through college and I took her away from all that. None of my dirtbag friends would've done that.

I also love her very much and felt I needed to stand up for her about her not havin' any sideburns. Obviously, if she was a stripper she's a nice package.

What should I have done dad? I grew up without a dad so I'm doin' the best i can on my own.

Roger D

The USD and Barclays high yield B ETF JNK

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/613023ce-9762-4ad7-a704-6cc43424e550

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/1b9c2ba2-e8c9-442c-a316-5c721645693a

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/b949bb19-58fa-45a5-9c1c-19357a50b002

Roger D.

Roger D

After I counted the JNK daily, later I decided to take a look at the 60 minute. Holy smokes, out of all the charts floating around the net,including mine. I think this is the clearest bearish chart out there.

If I was a bull, I think I would be nervous right now.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/a2c6944c-9b3b-424b-b4c8-7b9cf280ceeb

Roger D

And I'll a comment about the JNK daily and 60 minute chart. My way of thinking is that this ETF is acting perfectly with a large 5 wave thrust down out of this monster rising wedge. The ABC countertrend rally validates the wedge also as the wave "C" flattened out and implies incredible weakness. This chart is tremendously bearish and implies a very powerfull third wave is about to start.

The financials are in big trouble.

Roger D.

Roger D

Updated JNK daily chart count.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/0383be25-07da-4b34-b461-eb4e81aff62d

Chico

why do you think the low was higher?
that implies that the low is false.

is that a traders cynicism?

Wave Rust, I do think the low was false, in the sense that in the absence of trading bots things never would have gotten out of hand like that. As an example, Accenture dropped from $38.05 to $32.62 at 2:47:43 p.m. At 2:47:50 p.m. (7 seconds later!!), it traded at $5.34. It traded momentarily as low as 1 cent. There were thousands of trades like this, and as you know, many of them were canceled after the close. The indexes, however, were never revised. My position is this activity was hardly a reflection of mass human psychology, but rather a case of poorly coded algorithms gone wild.

Carlos Julio

Hi traders!! - EURUSUD
Trend bearish all time frames, but test this week important suport monthly box [1.1575,1.1890].
Until now any signal for a temporary bottom at this levels, but i change my view this week, Strong Bearish to Bearish neutral, because this cross test important suport/box montly chart.
Key number short-term 1.2350 below key expect new lows target 1.1750 ( look to chart fibonacci areas>> perfect testing upside and dowside).
Last session possible temporary top is formed 1.2152 because for now, resistance hourly range [1.2154,1,2165] and daily chart [1,2154,1,2178].
If close hourly above 1.2178 new resistance range [1.2233,1.2250].
Suport hourly 1,20 and range [1.1940,1960]. Close hourly below 1.1960 expect more damage first target last low 1.1875 and second target 1.1750.
Nothing new follow the pattern of last weeks. Pattern??
Looking to daily chart EURUSD tested friday last suport box now resistance this pattern have 6 weeks.
Friday test EMA 21 represent for now important resistance.
Enjoy your sunday have a nice week.
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2010/06/eur-usd-market-report-13062010.html

Mamma Boom Boom

>If I was a bull, I think I would be nervous right now.
Roger D.<

I'll probably lay in bed and cry all night.

Account Deleted

powershares qqq trust series I weekly analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/powershares-qqq-trust-series-i.html

GLN's good twin

"I'll probably lay in bed and cry all night.

Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Sunday, June 13, 2010 at 11:00 Am"

If you lay in bed all night with HighSchoolKid Trader you'll be crying....

....for more!!!

ja ja ja

Hockthefarm

In the realm of non self liquidating credit and the deflationary implications of it, this 1915 to 2002 chart has got to give even a simpleton some pause:

http://pragcap.com/deflation-how-to-survive-it

Hock

Rally Time

More Rally Time!

Never underestimate the power of the rally monkey
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aziWSxqGBD4

elliotteer420

Look out below

elliotteer420

Prechter is predicting Dow 250 by January 2015!

Dow 250! Wow!

Wave Rust

Jack Bauer's next mission is to get Neely and Prechter handcuffed together, in a room, and, order them to write the definitive EW book.

And do it in 24 HOURS, or they both get the 'battery cables and a wet sponge' jock strap.

One doesn't know enough and thinks he knows everything. The other knows too much useless B.S. wave and knows he's better 'cause his book is bigger.

Fact is, they are both lost. The major difference is that one is a much better marketer.

If I had to bet on one, because Jack had his gun to my head, I'd take Neely's 'never-see-Dow 1,000-in our lifetime' and his 'Dow 100,000 by 2060'.

The Dow at 250 would not be the Dow 30, but the Dow 5 or maybe 10.

Fear sells, even if it's groundless.

wave rust

Min

Yup,

Count on Prechter to make Elliottwaves into Idiotwaves with utter seemless ease.

Like Rust said he's simply a better marketer. He can also tell an entertaining, sellable story and publish it as well but that's about all.

Too bad a legitimately good TA tool can be hi-jacked and pimped so easily by this guy.

I guess props to him for being able to find enough suckers to stay in business year in year out?

His gain is definitely everyone else's loss.

If you want to discover the true effectiveness of elliottwave, outside of purchasing his basic book (used preferably), definitely steer clear of this guy.

I know it's weird, someone that wrote a book on the subject ought to know a thing or two at least —TRUST ME HE DOESN'T! At least not if you judge him by his actual track record of calls he's made.

Think I'm kidding?

check this out:

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Prechter/

Hockthefarm

Guys, Guys, Guys:

It is not about Elliott waves or Dow sub 400.

If Prechter was a good marketer, he would have kept those targets to himself.

It is about debt, and more specifically non self liquidating debt. It is enormous and will require massive deleveraging.

It is like the best Astrological Investor out there, who ever he is. He is the best because he got the global economy right and then went out and found astro signs that supported his view of the Economy.

Prechter uses waves to describe his view of the global economy, not the other way around. And even he repeatedly says he is usually early.

Some of you guys want a pill for every day of the week, and you want someone to tell you when to take it. You would have to be mad to follow anyone verbatum in the markets. Better to listen to someone who guides you to the right economy in a 3 to 5 year time period. If the dow is at 60,000 in 3 to 5 years, unemployment is at 4% and RE is a nice double from today, I'll be the first one to jump up and gas Prechter. That is the real bet, not what the market does next month.

Hock

chaungtzu lau

The guy is OBSESSED with 1929

Every year since 1987 has been labeled 1929 in a newsletter.

1988 = 1929
1989 = 1929
1990 = 1929
1991 = 1929
1992 = 1929
1993 = 1929
1994 = 1929
1995 = 1929
1996 = 1929
1997 = 1929
1998 = 1929
1999 = 1929
2000 = 1929
2001 = 1929
2002 = 1929
2003 = 1929
2004 = 1929
2005 = 1929
2006 = 1929
2007 = 1929
2008 = 1929
2009 = 1929
2010 = 1929
2011 = 1929
2012 = 1929
2013 = 1929
2014 = 1929
2015 = 1929
2016 = 1929

1929-1932 was a black swan event that may may never happen again in any current lifetimes.

chaungtzu lau

He says over and over though that he will finally become a bull in 2014-2016

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/367381/Wall-Street-Is-Setting-Investors-Up-for-Another-Hurting-Robert-Prechter-Warns?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,SPY,DIA,QQQQ,GLD

Min

Hock;

I know I've previously said "HOCK IS DUMB AS A ROCK" but after your last post you've now also proven yourself as Prechter's #1 ass licker as well.

Given your extensive 1 year experience with EWI and near zero market experience, at least you have a lame excuse.

By the way "good marketer" refers to the fact that Prechter knows how to market his dismal services so that people like you think they're worthwhile; In other words, he's adept at "putting lipstick on a pig"; in other words he'd make a used car salesman, that sort of thing.

You're one scary individual, like a 2 year old with a gun?

DG

Hock,

Neely does a much better job at discerning the actual turning points in the market, without all the hocus-pocus of socionomics. As min says, those are entertaining stories, but with very little applicability to financial market timing and, in fact, the CXO write-up seems to indicate that Prechter is most reliable as a contrary indicator.

Using Neely's trading on the Weekly timeframe is relatively low-turnover, high-profit. In a negative market (going back to August 2006), Neely's Weekly trades are up 32.8% (pre-tax and commission), risking 1.1% per trade (ranges between 1% and 2%) and he's only needed 69 trades in that time. Since Neely's trading the ES, those returns would have easily scaled up, so that if you risked 2.2%, you'd have gotten a 65.6% return. Compare that to Prechter's (or, EWI's, whomever you want to attribute their calls to) track record from August 2006, which is most assuredly negative.

No, he hasn't come out with essay after essay of "Why The Economy Is In The Crapper", but he's aware that there is a linkage between what the markets do and what the economy will do and has been advising readers to, e.g. get their money into safe banks and prepare for hard times.

I think what people are sensing in your posts is that you somehow think that Prechter's macroeconomic musings correlate strongly with market action, but they don't. I don't know if you're a trader or not (unlike some here, I don't really much care), but if you are, you'd do much better off looking at Neely's Weekly trade service than you'll do with Prechter's.

Yes, one can take the "long view" of 3 to 5 years, but with the markets making huge moves in 3 to 5 years, you face either a significant opportunity cost of not being on the right side of those moves (Neely subscribers' situation for the past 15 months) or huge drawdowns being on the wrong side. Neither is conducive to growing your account.

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