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« ObamaCare Killed the Recovery | Main | Whipsaw Market Roasts the Bears »

Friday, June 11, 2010

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Hockthefarm

Where is the Deflation:

Right here!

Here come the squatters:

http://tinyurl.com/25ftxqn

Looks like owners (be they builders or bankers) are going to pay the property taxes on property they hold the title on. No wonder they have been so slow to forclose. Maybe the plan is to run it out for the full 7 years.

Get your free home,
Hock

Roger D.

The low volume was bearish along with what looks to be a terminal C up to finish wave 2. It's time to see what this markets true intentions are.

Next week the possibilty exists for a crash if this count is right and we have a T square planet alignment. So have a good weekend and rest up,Monday should be a wild one.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/90a8e55c-9a04-43ca-9256-b66b5c781029

HighSchoolKid Trader

"once again, it's obvious that there are no 'daytraders' on this blog, or traders that know what they are doing.

After a strong close, any DOWN opening is bought with the highly probable outcome of the "gap" being closed within the first half hour. The same is true in reverse fashion of a gap higher being sold and faded after a huge downside day, the previous session.

Posted by: Trader 123 | Friday, June 11, 2010 at 09:35 AM"

That's not what you asked originally.

You're like my girlfriend Mikey, always gettin' all pissed-off when I don't correctly guess what she MEANT to say.

Capricious little thing she is but she's young,stupid and voluptuous I can put up with that and it's kinda cute.

You supposedly have 30 years experience so what's your excuse for not WRITING WHAT YOU MEAN?

Mikey, Mikey, Mikey what are we gonna do with you?

Roger D.

If MCD is going to come down todays thrust up should have finished it and now it should start the large wave down to the base of the wedge. It's crunch time.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/60893de4-ac1a-4b5c-a0c4-e71a32f439a3

Chico

Instead of criticizing others, post a chart and your understanding of what is going on, as well as where prices will go.

otherwise you sound like a Monday morning quarterback ...

Most of the time, there are multiple possibilities and things are not clear. Best to stand aside and wait. The Flash Crash makes determining a logical count even tougher than usual. However, you can still eliminate other counts as clearly invalid and devoid of logic, as DG points out over and over. Most of the time we don't know what is going on. People just need to accept that and stop forcing their preconceived ideas and biases on the market.

Steven_737

coyote-road-runner-DUH
+++++++

Roger D.

" it's got to be one for the record books of bearish set-ups." Steve Hochberg 06/11/10

Describing the last two days of low volume and record low trin reading and todays near record of plus ticks. This market is ready to make a historic decline. The setup is perfect.

But that's nothing new out of my mouth.

Roger D.


DG

Chico,

Here is what I've come up with.

http://yfrog.com/0dspxdailyjune5p

"Gun to my head" will I swear that this is the only count possible? No, but at least I'm not changing it every damn day. Since the May 25th low, I haven't had to change anything prior to that and I don't really see why I would, since wave-.G did exactly what it had to do to conform to the rules.

Hockthefarm

Interesting take from Stratfor:

http://tinyurl.com/ydfxwyx

H

Roger D.

DG,

Nice looking chart.

Today marks the 28th trading day since the initial top. In 1987 that marked the start of the crash leg.

Roger D.

DG,

My count is today finished a "c" of a "abc" wave 2. In Neowave how would that be counted in your chart? and in Neowave would that count be possible?

thanks,

Roger D.

The Pup Chanel

And so another week comes to a close
With DG and Roger acting like foes.

Come Monday,

Will Roger have been taken to the Elephant Grass by DG yet again?

Or will the Big Dog that pisses among the tall weeds get his AMEN?

Will the Prechter bashers continue dragging the fallen Oracle from Gainseville through town?

Or will the mystery day trader poster continue to put everyone else down?

Stay tuned for the continuing saga that is Yelnick's Place...

(Peyton Place score playing in the background and slowly fading to commercial break)

Next Up Liddell vs Ortiz on pay per view.

Roger D.

"And so another week comes to a close
With DG and Roger acting like foes."


There is no need for that to continue.

Roger D.

Roger D.

A potentially ominus chart. If gold has topped here,that would fit perfectly with my super bullish count in the USD and my count in the Dow. Possibly Monday look for a historic break of commodities and stocks.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/3d7d671d-7ed0-492b-9772-ecd91047ef18

twitter.com/DrBubb

No one has noted it yet, so I shall : Friday's close, just managed to fill the gap from the Jobs Data day. Whodathunkit?

min

"There are people who keep saying what a disaster the housing market in the US is. But, when you look at selected areas like San Francisco proper, you will think the goldilock is still alive.

Posted by: Whitebear | Friday, June 11, 2010 at 01:01 PM"

Ditto for L.A.s prestigious westside at least. My neighbor's house just sold for 7% below 2007s top price in about 6 weeks. This is typical for the whole neighborhood!

To me this means the downdraft is far from over and prechter's 2001 top in residential real estate prices was about 9 years (and counting) to soon to be useful for me.

min

Trader 123;

I bought QQQQ calls on the eventual puilback at a better price than I would've gotten at the opening. I had to leave but itlooks like my broker closed the trade at the close.

That's technically a day trade and I got close to the full run on the day's range so can I get excused from the castigation? can I, can I??

DG

DG,

My count is today finished a "c" of a "abc" wave 2. In Neowave how would that be counted in your chart? and in Neowave would that count be possible?

thanks,

Roger D.

Roger,

Yes, wave-2 could be an ABC, either a Zigzag or a Flat.

But, it's doubtful that today's action is part of any wave-2 and here's why:

The initial decline from the April price high doesn't have an Impulse structure.

One of the reasons NeoWave has a very specific way of charting price action is so that the wave's features become more apparent than they are using other methods. Look at the chart I posted again and find a clear 5-wave move down. You can't. And, where there are 5-wave moves, look to see if the Fib relationships between them are correct for an Impulse wave. They aren't. Compare the chart to pages 5-14 and 5-15 of "Mastering Elliott Wave", where Neely lays out what an Impulse wave should look like. They aren't the same.

When I say over and over that there are no or very few Impulse waves on these charts, I'm not just trying to be contrarian, I'm trying to be faithful to the charts.

By alerting me to the fact that Impulse waves require very specific forms and behaviors to be valid, Neely's book has kept me from making dozens of trades that would have turned out to be losing trades.

Where others saw Impulse waves and traded on the assumption that they'd follow-through to the downside, I knew that what was really happening was that there was a wave-A of some pattern that people were taking as wave-1. And that since it was a wave-A and not a wave-1, there was no reason to expect a wave-3 later on. In the nearly two years I have been alert to this phenomenon, I have literally NEVER been wrong in saying that a wave was not an Impulse. In fact, it has always been the opposite because there have been probably 3 or 4 times when I thought there was an Impulse forming and it actually turned out to be another Corrective pattern.

As usual, when I get writing about this particular topic, I get long-winded. It is only because I literally mean what I said above about traders being able to eliminate almost every wrong count if they will just learn to label something as Corrective first and, if and only if the structure absolutely, positively displays Impulsive features, label it as an Impulse. WAY too many traders default to calling something an Impulse and from there they are screwed. I watch it happen over and over again.

min

"Anyone that would buy, and any bank that would finance, $1000/sq ft, deserves to have their face kicked in.

Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Friday, June 11, 2010 at 01:19 PM"

Maybe not Mama. There could be a strong bid under the market from Chinese Investors looking to park there money somewhere, they have boat loads of cash and need do something with it?

Just so happens my neighbor's house was bought by a Chinese family that doesn't speak a lick of English.

min

DG;

I'm getting the book and reading Chapter 5. I've got my own ways that work well for me but if learning this chapter amounts to picking some "low lying fruit", it can only enhance what I already do.

I am extremely cautious of altering anything I do because my bag of tricks already work very well for me so this will be a first. Maybe I'll have to try this aproach on a different class of trades altogether so I don't fix something that isn't broken but you've got me curious for now.

How long did it tske you to become proficient at identifying snd discerning the tell signs of impulse waves? Proficient enough to where it became an asset to your trading?

Wave Rust

trader 123

when would rather have been long, Wednesday's close or Thursday's close?

you see, after years of trading, some people learn to adjust their ways.

daytrading is exactly like bull riding- it's exciting and dangerous because the really good riders get dumped on their head. the risk of injury is high, the rewards are low, but the bragging rights go to a guy who lasts 8 seconds.

the difference between bull riders and a daytrader who brags as if it's some big deal, is this: people pay to watch bull riders but nobody pays to watch or listen to a "dime a dozen' daytrader.

the trading game is personal and about profits to losses. it is never about bravado/machismo/bullchit.

I know many traders (including pit traders) ,,,, of all kinds and timeframes ,,,, no two are even similar.

most do have one commonality: they do both day trading and swing trading and, some long term investing. but how and what they trade is all over the place.

maybe the reason nobody posts intraday trades is because this blog is not a format for posting that kind of fast action.

fact is that nobody has anything to prove to you.

but you could start posting all your trades here so we could learn how THE daytrader really does it.

wave rust

Wave Rust

HighSchoolKid Trader

"You're like my girlfriend Mikey, always gettin' all pissed-off "

your girlfriend is named Mike?! she have sideburns too?

:)

wave rust

HighSchoolKid Trader

Waverust;

No. That's what I call trader 123. He knows why.

My girlfriend's got no sideburns, just a pretty little strip between her legs is all.

I love hittin' the poon so sorry to disappoint any gaysters lurking out there.

Roger D.

DG,

first thanks for the reply.

"The initial decline from the April price high doesn't have an Impulse structure."

Boy isn't that the riddle of a lifetime.

But in terms of price, it is what I call a "break". All markets after a long extended rise have a high probability of having a break. Now true bear markets exhibit this and the immediate trend recovers and then resumes the decline. We saw the inverse of this in November '09,Dubai low, it was part of a correction in a uptrend.

This time the market recovered swiftly but again made a lower low. A warning signal in my book. Now comes the tricky part. Off this last bottom we have a sharp rally of 7 waves and if it stands it is corrective against the main trend, only if it comes down again and makes a higher high would a warning be issued., that the down trend would be suspect.

That's my take. I won't get into my theory about this rise off the March '09 low. I'm sure you have had to endure my fully bearish bias for a long time. There are patterns that are so perfect here in space and time that if they make new high would rewrite some famous chronicles of technical analysis.

I see your point and you have to go with your system until it falters. Your more disciplined then I am,to be sure. The observation of other aspects of price movement qualities in totality have yet to be determined. Usually what is unseen in our present enviroment will be the determining factor.

I thank you again for the kind response.

Roger D.

Wave Rust

chico,

there was a very real and discoverable cause of the Flash Crash. I'm not saying what it is because it's not very evident yet. And, I don't want to spend any time defending or discussing it. I've got better things to do.

I do believe that there alot of people who know what it was, and they aren't pointing to it either. They are just letting ignorant SEC investigators and Inspectors General run around looking for the guilty guy or guys or system or whatever. they will never find the actual acorn that grew the crash. That's because they aren't looking for oak trees to find the original acorn. they are looking for rotten apples. :)

believe me, you MUST include the flash crash in your count. Absolutely! It was perfect, imo. You'll HAVE to count it ( in a year or more from now), as if it took 5 or 6 days to get to that low ,,,, and then the retest low.

the entire formation (incomplete now) is longer term extremely bullish but bearish for the short term ahead.

btw, no conspiracy involved in the Flash Crash, but i bet there is a whole lot of snickering and laughter (in cetain circles) about the "Flash Crash snipe hunt" by the Feds.

do count it, don't fret about, just count it. :)

fwiw, i was long at the time it started and then, I just started laughing out loud for a good 5 minutes, as it went down then up. One of the funniest things I have ever seen in the markets. I still get to smiling when I think about it.

I wasn't sure what it was but I figured it out later that evening when I had the time. the markets are nothing but footprints if they are anything at all.

good trading and good counting to you

wave rust

Wave Rust

HighSchoolKid Trader

that was way too much information for all of us about you and your girlfriend.

wave rust

Roger D.

DG,

Here is my beloved MCD,lol. It may be the only stock on the NYSE but I count a full impulse 5 off the top.

Now to be fair there are many that don't have 5 down in the flash crash wave. But under elliot they can have failed 5ths.

If it was easy every tom,dick and harry could do this. Be kind remember I go by Roger.

Have a good night,

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/6c8b0e2d-cd58-4667-b40a-6a08c570f411

usdollar

Using R. elliotts waves/Prechters, with a non preset mind, it will be flat A wave down, elongated flat/flash crash (a), sharp wave b up, 5 waves down (c)to form A, G on Dg's chart, from there a up, b lower than where a starts, extremly bullish, most likely an elongated flat, with an extended 5th wave (guessing), until June 25, 10700 or so on dow intraday. From there down in C1.

Roger D.

DG, I just noticed that I have that corrective mess labeled wrong, but I think we can agree that it is corrective.

Roger D.

usdollar

After this, the market has done from the top, an ABC, X, AB C1.

Hockthefarm

Prechter and Dent are lined up for a bounce:

Here is the Prechter interview with mama mia:

http://tinyurl.com/269bqnn

Hock

Roger D.

"Prechter and Dent are lined up for a bounce"

Bob is going on sentiment only. That's one of his main tools.
He's always and I mean always early.

The dollar has another leg up and maybe 2. When it hits 100 ask me then.

Roger D.

HighSchoolKid Trader

Waverust wrote:

"HighSchoolKid Trader

that was way too much information for all of us about you and your girlfriend.

wave rust

Posted by: Wave Rust | Friday, June 11, 2010 at 07:58 PM"

Sorry if I offended you Waverust;

You kinda made it seem like I might be maybe datin' a dude though so I didn't want people thinkin' I was some sort of fudge-packer or something.

I ain't no fudgepacker! An All-American poon lover in his prime 's all. Just wanted to set the record straight.

Also my girlfriend's gorgeous, no sideburns, ass crack hair or anything like that.

Again, sorry if this offended anyone

•|•
_U_

Chico

DG, thanks for the chart. Looks like a plausible count - time will tell. It's refreshing to see a chart without a series of 1s and 2s.

Chico

Wave Rust,

Just to clarify, I'm not saying the entire move needs to be thrown out (this was discussed right after it happened). As you pointed out, it was several days in the making. I'm arguing the "true" low is somewhat higher than the low print of the day. How much higher? Who knows. But it does potentially affect counts and ratios involving that move.

I must admit, your comments about the cause have me intrigued. Care to elaborate?

Pup TV

************************LATE NEWS DEVELOPMENT FLASH JUST IN************************

In a stunning turn of events, it looks like Yelnick Place will be re-written next week as DG has single-handedly caused a perma-bear and a dyed-in-the-wool Prechter basher to capitulate. Right on DG!

************STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AS THEY HAPPEN*************

DG

How long did it tske you to become proficient at identifying snd discerning the tell signs of impulse waves? Proficient enough to where it became an asset to your trading?

min,

Since you are already proficient in wave theory, it won't take you long. Once Neely's rules "click" in your head, it's just a matter of days until you start to switch your "default" labeling of that first big wave (down or up) from "1" to "A".

It also helps, but isn't completely necessary, to chart the way Neely says to, i.e. plot two data points per time period, the time period high and low, in the order in which they occurred, as described in Chapter 2 of MEW.

DG

But in terms of price, it is what I call a "break". All markets after a long extended rise have a high probability of having a break. Now true bear markets exhibit this and the immediate trend recovers and then resumes the decline. We saw the inverse of this in November '09,Dubai low, it was part of a correction in a uptrend.

This time the market recovered swiftly but again made a lower low. A warning signal in my book. Now comes the tricky part. Off this last bottom we have a sharp rally of 7 waves and if it stands it is corrective against the main trend, only if it comes down again and makes a higher high would a warning be issued., that the down trend would be suspect.

Roger,

Yes, I agree that the May 6th crash was an important event, as was the subsequent new low following the rebound from the crash. In my count, I see there being two paths from here based on that information. Either we consolidate sideways to up in a wave-b, followed by a resumption of the decline which began in April and picked up steam in May or we make an attempt at a new high which fails. The latter is Neely's view.

My view of the sideways to up possibility is that it shouldn't overshoot the 61.8% retracement of the decline. If a trend has truly changed, that level of retracement won't typically get surpassed.

However, and here is where I differ from anyone counting the decline so far as an Impulse, I don't think we are about to enter anything like a "3 of 3". That's not to say that the decline won't be powerful, just that it won't conform to the Impulse rules I have mentioned again and again.

Hank Wernicki


Monday :

Monday June 14th
9:30 am

15m top for the ES , Gap Down Sunday / Monday

 
6/9 @ 11:15 am is the Child / Base Fractal

 
Friday's close was the Parent / Copy Fractal --- confirmed

 
Will Short the Contract on a Bounce

1091.54 Stop

 
1089.50 was the Close

 
3 Point Risk Trade ( acceptable )

The Wernicki Fractal Pair Set ™

DG

DG, I just noticed that I have that corrective mess labeled wrong, but I think we can agree that it is corrective.

Roger D.

Roger,

Yeah, I agree that MCD rally from the lows has been Corrective. Regarding the 5 waves down, though, if you are labeling the first wave down as being from 71.84 to ~70.1 and then you have the 4th wave of the same degree overlapping that first wave down (if I am following your labeling, you have the 4th wave going from the 3rd wave bottom at ~67.4 to ~71.3), that's not permissible in an Impulse wave. Even for a "Leading Diagonal" that would be a bit too much overlap between waves 1 and 4.

Also, just remember another simple rule when labeling Impulses at multiple Degrees. Each wave-2 you identify as you get to lower Degrees should retrace LESS of its wave-1 than the wave-2 at the next higher Degree. If the first wave-2 retraces 50%, the next should retrace less than 50% and the third should retrace less than the second. Again, this will keep you from getting overly bullish or bearish and, more importantly, will keep you from trading on an overly bullish or bearish perspective.

DG

DG, thanks for the chart. Looks like a plausible count - time will tell. It's refreshing to see a chart without a series of 1s and 2s.

Chico,

It amazes me just how little "learning" most wave chartists exhibit. Their Impulse counts fail again and again and yet, as soon as there's a relatively big move in the markets, out come the 1-2 labels again.

The realization that not every big move has to be an Impulse was a key breakthrough for me. At first, it was just a breakthrough relative to my wave labeling, but it lead to a key trading breakthrough which has been paying huge dividends as well.

Roger D.

DG,

Ok, then the only thing we disagree on as you think this is NOT a top of supercycle degree and I do. I fully expect a top Sunday night in the futures or a carry over to the cash Monday morning. This week we should see a vey powerful move to the downside start. The March lows should be tested soon.

Of course a break of the 200dma would say you are right and a test of the highs is probable. There is the problem of various connected markets,ie USD,Gold,Yen,DAX,FTSE,ect, they all look to be at major inflection points.

No need to try to convince each other. I think this type of convsation is enjoyable.

Oh and to clarify to pup, Nothing changed so far.

Roger D.

PS. IF and when we come down and take out 1040. I think that wave structure will be unmistakeably "impulsive". My theory is that since the top in 2000 of the NASDAQ. The markets have been in a hybrid wave structure. This next wave down will be a true "C" wave as all markets get in gear to the downside. Now that theory I think is original to me. Unless Neely has talked about the effect the 2000 top has had on other markets.

Cheers

Roger D

I'll just post this chart of the ES Mini. I count it as complete,but the thrust up could continue and then come down in another X and continue up in a abc to fill a gap up at the 1105 area.

I think it's finished and topped at the close.

Everybody have a wonderful weekend.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/3b002953-e27d-4b8a-a72d-e45d20d77e6b

Roger D

One last

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/9be4709c-1dfd-481e-98b9-e0df2370f539

Roger D

I'm done and this one is interesting!

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/e3dd3be1-6457-4fe5-b9dd-f6dd55761b21

Pup TV

"Oh and to clarify to pup, Nothing changed so far.

Roger D."

But you and DG are acting more civilized to each other, Thaat's a change, no? —a good change?

Roger D

"But you and DG are acting more civilized to each other, Thaat's a change, no? —a good change?"

Yes and that is very good.

RD

DG

But you and DG are acting more civilized to each other, Thaat's a change, no? —a good change?

It's fine. The main reason I started criticizing Roger's counts was because he was portraying them as "can't miss". If you are going to say that about your analysis, you'd better be prepared for someone to try to take it apart.

We're in a public forum, after all. No one is obligated to agree with anyone else or even treat them civilly.

Mamma Boom Boom

>Monday June 14th
9:30 am

15m top for the ES , Gap Down Sunday / Monday<

Hank, how many points down do you think?

I think the odds are extremely low, that we would get a meaningful drop. The multi-month uptrend is in full gear, IMO.

Hurst

Hurst Cycles are rolling to the upside

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