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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

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Roger D.

It all depends on this baby. Is that a "c" that will pop up or are those 1,2's of the top?

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/c543823b-7b12-4709-bbb9-8b993e4a3f30

Roger D.

Roger D.

Looks like todays oh shit! line is 9760-50. I don't know if we'll get close today,but if we do...oh shit!

Roger D.

Mamma Boom Boom

Action is fairly broad on low volume, and all divergences are still in place.

Roger D.

MCD

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/d0ca9228-1003-498f-b79f-66a0612414da

Chico

nspolar,

for the record, Neely does not see a grand-supercycle type bear market like Prechter. In fact, he doesn't even see us going below last year's low. He's forecasting more of a sideways market with large swings for the next few years, before a continuation of the larger bull market.

Steven_737

A quick retrace to the SPX 1052~1056 area (or even 1059 - irrational exuberance) is likely in the works

If SPX goes below 1038~1040 all bets for mini rally (at least TODAY) are OFF.


Bird if you are not certain why you bought MCD,
OR
you still don't have good reasons to own it (or trading signal to be long),

you had better decide if you want to keep it,
or if you want to bailout at the top of this rally

cheers :)

disclaimer: This is not investment advice; only chart reading

nspolar

Chico,

Neely I believe has the market in a '4' correction of major degree no?

Is Prechter in a '4' of major degree or a grand super cycle 'II'? Or do we really know where Bobby is at?

ns

adg

this market is going down big time, no doubt about it

Bird

Steven, Yes! It was always a counter-trend trade for me. It is struggling quite a bit. If we are weak toward the close I will close it out.

Chico

nspolar,

Yes, he has us in a fourth wave of major degree, but is long-term bullish. In fact, he sees 100,000 for the S&P by 2060. He is by no means in the end-of-the-world camp like Prechter.

Chico

Also, I don't subscribe to Prechter, but he perpetually has been calling for Dow 400 or some ridiculous number like that.

Roger D.

Big triangular top here and it could get ugly.

Roger D.

Roger D.

I don't know if this is right,but if it is not good.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/7135d6da-0613-4142-9ae8-592c53517ee3

Steven_737

"Neely does not see a grand-supercycle type bear market like Prechter"

There is no evidence that grand supercycles exist;
it may be just a figment of the imagination of a couple of analysts!

The Kondratiev wave does not forecast stock market prices; only economic cycles.

It is a huge leap of faith (to whom for heaven's sake!! Prechter?? )
to accept the stock market grand-supercycles construct as the evolution (and transformation !) of the Kondratiev wave, to the degree of accepting financial destruction of such humongous extent and prices returning to the 1890 or 1932 valuation levels.

Mind you, that although I use the Elliott wave cycles, I don't worry about the grand supercycles as I do not need to sell subscriptions :)


Valuations will undergo a test in this down move - economic & financial contraction -
and then the ELLIOTT WAVE PRACTITIONERS' committee will decide on "super-cycles".

We will have to wait till 2015 ~ 2017 (or even later) for the committee to start arguing the question at hand

:):)

In the interim, counting waves will help us trade the markets, all the way to the bottom and back...

da bear

either wave d of 2 down has ended or we are all screwed...
can't tell which.
The Bottomless Pit in the Gulf ain't too good either.
Stocks and metals not doing much of anything at all. Must be a "staycation" on wal-street.
Oh yeah, and it's Wednesday aka 'Hump Day.'
That means that we will either get over the hump or under the hump tomorrow...


da bear

My Elliott Wave counts are right -- they just aren't working.

Steven_737

The price action feels like the first leg of w4 ("a" of a-b-c) after such a fast drop that is likely a wave 3.

Now here is my question AGAIN:

does anyone have a bellwether to assess if wave 3 will extend ?

:)

Steven_737

XLF looks like working on w5 of iii of 3

so does XLE

nspolar

"Action is fairly broad on low volume, and all divergences are still in place."

Mama, those divergences still in place and doing you well?

ns

Sjaak Trekhaak

I guess w3 of iii of 3 is just starting ...

Roger D.

9750,9750,9750 below that this market is in trouble.


Roger D.

Steven_737

XLI and XLB look like like they started working on w1 of iii of 3

:)

"I guess w3 of iii of 3 is just starting ..."

you maybe right ! :)

I will have another look at XLF and XLE after the close...

Sjaak Trekhaak

Could be, but use stops!

I'm trying trailing stop loss, and hoping that my broker doesn't break down if it really gets going.

Account Deleted

S&P 500 Trading range breaks on the down side
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-500-range-breaks-on-down-side.html

adg

s&p500 at 300 by the month's end, shorts rule!

Roger D.

850 here we go. Today was a very good day as my counts are working to perfection.

Roger D.

Mamma Boom Boom

What's going on? I leave the office for a couple of hours and everything goes to hell.

Roger D.

JNK

A series of 1,2's off the latest top and the w2 bent down as the selling pressure was intense. Closing below the trendline,this market will crash.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/9bbe7f2d-5658-4fec-90c9-556002aa6be0

adg

it is 100% sure there will be crash - short is the only safe bet

Roger D.

Also look for a continuation gap down tomorrow.

Roger D.

Aramis-

There is no safe bet. when you think 100% sure for something to happen, chances are good you will be surprised.

Roger D.

Don't stand too close to the tracks, locomotive's can be detrimental to your well being.

Mamma Boom Boom

Next 2 days: weak rally.

Next week: set-up for a rocket.

usdollar

I could guess that it is likely that the 3rd wave will stop here somewhere and the 5th extend, does not really matter H&S target.

Neely did not believe we would go lower than the 2002 bottom either.

I believe Prechter's target is to high. Watch Big H&S, it will be confirmed in November, then March of 2012 it will hit ZERO, and that is when silver in your pocket and lead in your gun will come handy dandy.

DG

Today was a very good day as my counts are working to perfection.

No, the market went down, but not in any way that confirmed a "3 of 3" count, which would require the market to decline faster than it did in the "3 of 1" of the same Degree, i.e. faster than it declined in the Fall of 2008.

Basic. Logic.

Roger D.

DG, As I said before you don't know impulse from shinola. Get a clue, I have posted charts that have tremendous tops making lower tops and lower lows,on increasing volume,basic stuff. You should know better, dump that neo-wave crap. Market harmonics are mathematics,there is nothing new under the sun.

Roger D.

ps, I have seen one of your charts be predictive. Look at my charts today,game,set and match.

joe pacheco

You don't really believe the market is going to crash right before the 4th of July do you??

Joe

Mr. Panic

Head and shoulders pattern on the McClellan Oscillator with the neckline slightly violated to the downside today. (LOL) That's probably the only place that a head and shoulders pattern might actually work.

Roger D.

Joe,

Money,greed and fear is greater than any holiday.

down 100+ S&P points is certainly doable with the bottom trenchannel at 870.

Roger D.

Roger D.

Joe btw, the crash will start in Asia and they don't have a 4th of July.


Roger D.

DG

Roger,

Look at my charts today,game,set and match.

Yeah, I've been looking at that same chart for the past 6 months, since you post the same count EVERY SINGLE DAY. Go ahead and call that "predictive" if you want, but I call it "a broken clock finally being right".

You can say I don't know Impulses a thousand times. Doesn't make it true. I follow Neely's rules in Chapter 5 of Mastering Elliott Wave, yes. Unless you can tell me how those rules are wrong, I will assume that you don't know what you're talking about. I doubt you even know the rules, which is why you label anything that even looks like it has 5 segments as an Impulse, without regard to Fib, time, or channeling considerations, to say nothing of post-pattern behavior. ALL of which go into the determination of a pattern as an Impulse.

Also, I posted a chart last night that fully allowed for today's decline, as the continuation of wave-.D of either an Expanding Triangle or a Symmetrical pattern.

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/9705/spxdailyjune10.png

Unlike you, I don't proclaim that every day is the end of some major pattern.

"Game, set and match", indeed.

You can't call for a "wave iii of 3" and then have that wave decline at a slower pace than "wave iii of 1". It's completely illogical, unless wave 1 was the Extended wave in the Impulse structure. Not that I think there is any Impulse structure to begin with, but just for the sake of argument.

Again, I don't write my responses to you, but for others reading, so that they don't get fooled by the stupid certainty with which you write. You're an idiot, so I don't expect to persuade you. It's the other people reading who are the ones I am trying to help see why your counts are wrong. You can go ahead believing whatever you want. I actually hope you lose your shirt trying to trade your wrong-headed "wave iii of 3". Maybe then you'll listen to reason. As the Greeks said, "We learn by suffering". Well, in order for a moron like you to learn, you will need to suffer. Clearly.

DG

Yeah, I've been looking at that same chart for the past 6 months, since you post the same count EVERY SINGLE DAY. Go ahead and call that "predictive" if you want, but I call it "a broken clock finally being right".

In fact, even calling your chart a "broken clock finally being right" is giving it too much credit, since, as I said, the market's behavior did NOTHING to confirm ANY kind of "iii of 3" wave count. I look forward to pointing this out again when the count fails AGAIN. I only hope you're "all in" on the short side, so you can get f*cked and finally learn your lesson.

Chartist

DG if you had sense it would be NONSENSE.
Just who has been right this year certainly not you.Roger's charts tell the story correctly at least he has made our hosts front page.
What do you contribute ? Trite vomitive unintelligent
mental masturbating dribble... Hah!

Roger D.

DG,

Give it up.

IBM's 5 point top forecasts a initial drop down to 107-100. I put major support a 70.


http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/1186903a-1a17-48b1-9e2b-f197e56a31ea

joe pacheco

Roger - I am looking at the same charts - I get the same read as you get.

It just that - I never thought we could crash going into a holiday - now - I do think it could. I was thinking I did not have to look at this until the weekend - I think I made a big mistake.

Joe

DG

Chartist,

Roger has been saying "wave iii of 3" since January, at least on this site and I'm sure he was saying it long before. So, unless he's been holding off on trading his wave count until now, there's no telling how many failed trades he made. He won't even post his track record, while I have posted mine many times.

As for making the front page, Yelnick has mentioned my alternatives to Neely's various shorter-term counts in his updates before and I have posted links to MANY charts that would have kept both bears from getting too bearish and bulls from getting too bullish. Which, if you actually look at a chart over the past 6 months, has been EXACTLY the way to view the market, since it's basically traded in a large range over that time, without breaking out either way, really.

Mr. Panic

We're going to get 10-29 if SP 1029 doesn't hold tomorrow.......I think a crash going into the July 4 weekend is ideal; it would throwoff about everyone. I am already seeing bears getting out of their shorts in expectation of a rally and all the Atilla-ites are boasting about how they are following the smart money by preparing for a rally to the 1100s. Of course a crash would take longer than a couple of days but the Nov 2009 support is the last support before freefall city.

DG

DG,

Give it up.

IBM's 5 point top forecasts a initial drop down to 107-100. I put major support a 70.

I don't do individual stocks, so this is neither here nor there to me.

I love how you go from not answering my logical challenges to your wave counts to simply piling on more crappy wave counts. Again, I hope you're all in on margin with your retirement money on the short side. When you are wrong AGAIN I hope it finally causes you enough pain that you'll shut your piehole about "wave iii of 3" forever.

Roger D.

"Roger - I am looking at the same charts - I get the same read as you get.

It just that - I never thought we could crash going into a holiday - now - I do think it could. I was thinking I did not have to look at this until the weekend - I think I made a big mistake.

Joe

Joe, if it's going to happen,it will eminate in Japan and China. Once it starts it will spread quickly,Hang Seng, London,DAX and so on. The employment report will stink and Sunday night will be a full blown panic. Next week will probably set records in the VIX,TRIN,and volume. Not to mention the Euro will break to new lows.

Roger D.

Roger D.

Joe, also I would say 9000 on the Nikkei is very important. If we get close to that tonight, that would increase the odds dramatically.

Roger D.

adg

the CRASH is coming!

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