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« That Sinking Feeling: Stocks on Edge of Cliff | Main | China Factory Suicides Signal End of Cheap Labor »

Monday, June 07, 2010

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Biased

this topic was covered for you already and you didn't have to subscribe to nor wait for a copy of a newsletter to get it.
http://wp.me/pTXcQ-7f

cheers

Wave Rust

running for the exits, eh.

that means they bought a ticket to get in

then somebody shouted 'Fire!'

they panicked and rushed to the exit, only to find they had to sell their ticket for much less, on their way out.

I haven't heard of anyone getting trampled to death, so ,,,,

the picture has a missing figure doesn't it?

The missing person was who? and, why was he smiling the whole time, saying, "Thank you so much for selling back to me."

It's the same old story, "Lemmings to the slaughter"

a Lemming wave is special.

wave rust

Bill C

At 4:30 E.T. when the mini-Dow futures reopened there was a trade down about 200 points. I assume it was an error. Just wondering if this showed up in any of the other indexes.

Anybody with access to S&P futures see something similar?

Hockthefarm

Prechter has been saying it since 2003 and now we hear more in this gem from Hussman.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100607.htm


When you look at our policy response, all you can really do is shudder.

Hock

Hockthekids

In the meantime since 2003 the Dow doubled, Gold Quadrupled, Real Estate tripled, etc., etc., etc.,

Hussman is a lot closer to what you want out of somebody who claims to be a market forecaster.

Prechter probably was saying this in 1932 as well from his mama's womb.

Roger D.

The ES tonight, my take is this is a bearish move up,that will give way quickly to increased selling. upside limit 1068?

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/c8e31670-4e9c-4d42-bda7-ab0e9df15e94

Roger D.

This chart of the DAX open is ugly so far.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/51917b26-90a4-4c8b-a201-f9d34c62865d

Hockthekids

1068 will probably be exceeded at the open.

The bears are about to be made into rugs

Hockthekids

Better go back to Lens Crafters and get a better prescription. What you should be seeing is untelling noise and the previous completed 5 waver that needs another leg up at least.

You're sounding desperate!

Face it tomorrow you're toast so deal with it and get some rest.

Roger D.

Hock the Dax is toast and a cinder at that.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/a750a608-c1d9-4865-8742-655d96d02f03

Your'e right about one thing, good night.

Hockthekids

Maybe, but not tomorrow!

Tomorrow you're made into a rug and trampled by many hoofs.

Enjoy your rest you'll need it.

KRG

Y : Is the concept of LD there in original Elliott? If a overlapping 53535 is acceptable then this would add further confusion to any wave counting.. Would the LD be corrective or impulsive ; If impulsive why the overlap...The whole action may be easier to count as running correction rather than as LD, if at all the subsequent action turns out to be impulsive

Steven_737

Hello DG and Duncan

"The first sign would probably be the amount of wave-1 that is retraced by wave-2, right? If wave-1 will be the "Extended" wave, then wave-2 should not retrace much more than 38.2% of it, before the start of wave-3. If wave-2 retraces more of wave-1 than that, odds are that wave-3 will be the extended wave and waves 1 and 5 will either be equal, related by .618 or by .382, in descending order of likelihood."

DG;

I see what you are trying to establish, based on retracements. But is it enough?

Have you asked yourself this question in the past, and have you seen price patterns develop this way?
OR
you are formulating this as a working hypothesis?

Another thought:
If w2 retraces as much as 62%, then the market is not very strong; w3 will likely be the wave with the greatest length
BUT
that does not mean that it will extend.

Please note that
by extend, I mean that wave 3 starts subdividing so that the total number of waves that can be counted on it are not the usual 5 but 9 (two nested 1-2 and 4-5) or even 13 (three nested 1-2 and 4-5)

Thus extension would lead to waves related by the 4.235 and 2.618 ratios vs the usual 1.618

Duncan, has Zoran ever addressed this?

Thanks for taking the time to think about it and reply

To make this question more relevant, let me explain why I ask:
in situations like the currently preferred count by STU on the daily chart, (as described by Duncan),
one would like to have a bellwether to help his assessment about PROJECTED TARGETS when using Fibonacci projections.

Of course my interest is not only to apply this on the daily but on the hourly and 15 min charts as well.

cheers :)

barack0

Dick Arms need to retire if he's giving that kind of advice. The trend is about to change, to a much stronger sell.

DG

DG;

I see what you are trying to establish, based on retracements. But is it enough?

Have you asked yourself this question in the past, and have you seen price patterns develop this way?
OR
you are formulating this as a working hypothesis?

This is straight out of "Mastering Elliott Wave". So I'm basing it on Neely's observations of the market, which presumably were the basis for his rule formulation.

Given the dearth of Impulse waves over the past 15 months since I've been doing NeoWave charts myself, I have not seen any waves conform to this rule. I know you guys see Impulses everywhere, but I can think of maybe a couple and even those don't really fit into the market's subsequent behavior cleanly and logically.

Please note that
by extend, I mean that wave 3 starts subdividing so that the total number of waves that can be counted on it are not the usual 5 but 9 (two nested 1-2 and 4-5) or even 13 (three nested 1-2 and 4-5)

Neely distinguishes between "extension" and "subdivision", but says the wave which extends will also subdivide if the pattern is at the Multiwave level or above.

Also, Neely states as a logical rule that "nested" 1-2 counts must exhibit progressively more strength (bullish 1-2s) or weakness (bearish 1-2s). If the first 2 retraces 50% of the first 1, the second 2 must retrace less than 50% and if there is a third 2, it must retrace less than the second 2. Again, I find this rule a good way to "stay out of trouble" regarding any sort of 1-2-i-ii counts, which always seem to get people excited and then fizzle out.

As a matter of empirical fact could there be a 1-2-i-ii which was "real" and in which the second 2 retraced more than the first? Yes, one can't rule it out a priori, even if the logic is unappealing. However, with so many other wave structure options available, I don't see why one would want to stick with a nested 1-2 count if the second 2 retraced more than the first. Just switch to another count which is more logical.

Middle School Kid Trader

I hope that smartass high school kid isn't around. Anyway, again, I'm not claiming a crystal ball, but an opening pop, like yesterday, doesn't seem to me to be a well-founded place for a serious bounce, for the reasons I was giving yesterday.

Bird

Oops, that was supposed to be posted by my usual handle.

I hope that smartass high school kid isn't around. Anyway, again, I'm not claiming a crystal ball, but an opening pop, like yesterday, doesn't seem to me to be a well-founded place for a serious bounce, for the reasons I was giving yesterday.

Roger D.

Looks like the markets will track the Euro today. So far the action in the Dax is not good.

Roger D.

It's not going to hold. Should accelerate down towards 9700.

Account Deleted

SP 500 support and resistance lines in chart

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/sp-500-pattern-that-will-decide.html

Hockthefarm

Hockthekids:

"Prechter probably was saying this in 1932 as well from his mama's womb."

Is that you min?

My only comment would be to ask: What changed? Should Prechter have forseen 750 k$ RE loans to people in prison? Or should he have known back then that the big banks with the full support of the gubmint would intentially run themselves into the ground for a big bonus and an opportunity to watch the American tax payer get bum balled by a German shepard? I don't think so.
H

Roger D.

The Euro

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/b82aa69c-e574-407e-ac71-cedc9b9fddef

Pen

Yelnick,

I just read an excellent article on 24hgold.com -- the writer stated that once the DOW/Gold ratio drops below 7-1, and stays below that threshold for 100-days straight, that gold will have become it's own asset class, i.e. "hard currency", not a commodity. He said that before the economy can begin turning around, gold will trade at least 50% higher than 1 DOW share...he put this number at around $9K (so DOW 6000).

I'd like to hear your thoughts on this.

DG

My only comment would be to ask: What changed? Should Prechter have forseen 750 k$ RE loans to people in prison? Or should he have known back then that the big banks with the full support of the gubmint would intentially run themselves into the ground for a big bonus and an opportunity to watch the American tax payer get bum balled by a German shepard? I don't think so.

There was an excellent book called "The Great Reckoning" back in the early 1990's that already was talking about debt deflation. The main parts of the analysis were exactly correct, in my view. What they missed was "securitization", which enabled the debt burden to continue to grow beyond all expectations. The fact that as soon as the securitization markets started to fail, the whole house of cards started to crumble has me convinced that this was the missing factor in their forecast, which is now coming to pass quite strongly.

So, I can see your point about Prechter. BUT, the man should not be anywhere near any chart that isn't measured in annual, if not decadal, terms.

Smarter Than A Fifth Grader Trader

"My only comment would be to ask: What changed? Should Prechter have forseen 750 k$ RE loans to people in prison? Or should he have known back then that the big banks with the full support of the gubmint would intentially run themselves into the ground for a big bonus and an opportunity to watch the American tax payer get bum balled by a German shepard? I don't think so.
H

Posted by: Hockthefarm | Tuesday, June 08, 2010 at 07:54 AM"

HE SHOULD HAVE KNOWN HIS EGO AND BIAS WOULD GET THE BEST OF HIM?

Is this an essay question or multiple choice?

Roger D.

The 1.2000 area should be barrier in the euro,if so and a reversal today is in the cards. Another nested 1,2 in the Dow down from "E" in this chart will give way to a move down to 8400 in the next 4 days,accompanied by some wild swings.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/3cbfd1a5-2076-46a5-8d18-1ec728ee3cd7

HighSchoolKidTrader

>>>Oops, that was supposed to be posted by my usual handle.

I hope that smartass high school kid isn't around. Anyway, again, I'm not claiming a crystal ball, but an opening pop, like yesterday, doesn't seem to me to be a well-founded place for a serious bounce, for the reasons I was giving yesterday.

Posted by: Bird | Tuesday, June 08, 2010 at 06:30 AM<<<

Bird! howz it goin' dawg!

I miss you too homey!

Yeah man I'm 'round just chillin...

Looks like you're 'bout to make good on your lack of crystal ball but hey homey, it's cool I got your back.

No worries, we're all more or less idiots around here, some bigger than others like the Hockstermeister but it's all good...

Bird

Kid, not that it matters but the crystal ball worked fine this time round. Initial pop gave way.

HighSchoolKidTrader

Sure Dawg if that's the way it looks to you from where you're tripin'...

>>doesn't seem to me to be a well-founded place for a SERIOUS bounce,

Posted by: Bird | Tuesday, June 08, 2010 at 06:30 AM<<<

I'm sold if you are homey. Serious is open to interpretation...

Account Deleted

What BUSH was to US(the Worst president ever who through is oversmartness and violent approach has driven US to the sorry state that it currently is in) Pretcher is to ELLIOT WAVE.Pretcher is an ELLIOT WAVE practitioner with the most Dangerous and Destructive and Violent mind.Otherwise what woud justify his time and again comments on some irrational downside targets on DOW.

If US had not Beaten around the BUSH's it would still have been a finanical powerhouse it was once known for.Those were the most unfortunate moments in US history that made otherwise very very wise and good hearted American population support both these BUshes in their Violent acts against humanity.Perhaps thats the price US is paying for right now.

Much in the same way if Pretcher didnt head EWI it wouldve made ELLIOT WAVE theory a lot respected and acclaimed and not as disrespected as it currently is.Its becos of some really stupid statements and analysis by this man over two decades that has bought disrespect to this otherwise excellent theory developed by R N Elliot through sheer hardwork.

Mamma Boom Boom

>Dick Arms believes it means instead a bounce is due back to Sp1150, confirming the right shoulder of a head & shoulders pattern back to the January top<

I continue to believe that 1150 is the absolute minimum.

Roger D.

MCD is setting up for a big thrust down. The catalyst will be a currency,banking liquidity crisis.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/5962111a-5e82-4798-92c4-586c80d4c556

Roger D.

The Euro

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/d3434198-b227-496d-953e-d6fb68e6b6b1

Mr. Panic

That high ARMS reading is a hook to keep people bullish. I see Tom McClellans is writing the same thing. Maybe it should be construed as an initiation thrust indicator. That ARMS reading did not occur at the bottom of a decline but in the middle of a two week congestion area. And it should have started a rally by now.

HighSchoolKidTrader


Bird wrote:

"I noticed that your first 3 trades were not "real time", as in, you told us about your successes after they happened. Only your 4th trade was real time. Could that have anything to do with your success rate? If so, how can I trade real money after the fact too, like the high frequency traders? I so admire them.

And you.


Posted by: Middle School Kid Trader AKA Bird| Monday, June 07, 2010 at 02:22 PM


Bird, Bird, Bird, here! let me flash you the bird!

All 4 trades were with actual money in the real world and posted in real time as claimed.

The results of the fourth trade were discovered after hours and posted after the fact as I went to the race track for some R&R.

I take care of business first then post as fast as can be done but business always comes first so if things don't match up to the nano-second well that's too bad but it's reasonably clear to correlate that it was in real-time.

Those that pretend to know hours, days, weeks, years in advance are the real posers —at least if they're tryin' to day trade.

Active tradin' is a whole different ball game Bird-Man. It involves (among other things):

High risk tolerance; an annoying self-confidence; knowing your tools cold; fast reflexes; uncompromising money management; and a good sixth sense is a definite bonus.

Not many can fill this resume although many try.

Posting to your standards so you can verify my trades is not a high priority. I did 3 of those trades before you were done pickin' your nose yesterday.

Then there are days like today when I'm chillin and have time to set you straight, but I didn't know it was goin' to turn out this way ahead of time.

Don't be a hatin', dawg. It's not my fault I'm younger, purttier and more successful than you.

I'll let you be my side-kick if you chill and act civilized.

Roger D.

I think the high arms is a sign of the tremendous amount of selling by those caught in the USD/EUR fiasco. It will get a lot more intense as the EUR declines. European banks have huge losses incured and the **** will hit the fan. Could be any day any hour,we are very close.

Roger D.

Roger D.

MCD making top

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/6f82d137-7286-441f-8710-bfb4a3af3ae5

Bird

Roger, I would say earliest lasting turn in mcd is 3:30-3:40 mark.

vipul garg

anoop
it is possible that spx made a rising wedge as you show in the chart.
however in the same chart you also say a falling wedge using part of the formation of the rising wedge.how is that possible ?
and the support line you mark is not right.

Roger D.

Well today was abc up countertrend rally meaning we are setting up for a very bearish 3rd wave. Today's rally resets and allows for a plunge down tomorrow.

Roger D.

Mamma Boom Boom

I don't know, Roger. I think you'd better start whistling and looking over your shoulder.

HighSchoolKidTrader

Birdie;

Bouncy, Bouncy, Bouncy

Bird

Roger, mcd ran a little beyond the time juncture, but there is some play in the charts and in so doing remained pretty harmonic. I am not actually calling it as the top. That was your job. I'm saying it is a good time to turn. (Not all times are equal!) This particular window is lost if new highs on the 10 minute occur after the open tomorrow. So it would have to be an overnight change in sentiment in order for this particular time mark to be the One.

Bird

High School Kid, I don't know if you are trying to be an ass hole but that is how it is playing on me. That's fine. I can choose not to play. As I don't really think you want to chase others away, I invite you to engage constructively. You have an issue with, what is it, over-intellectualized approaches to trading. You want to save others from this fate. You have found something much simpler and better. What exactly do you do to enter, exit? What is your percentage winners to losers? What is your average win size versus average loss side? Have you mastered EW (you aren't Neely, are you?) and if so, what is it that you get that others don't?

Feel free to ask me about how I see these things also, if you wish.

Roger D.

Mamma everything depends on the USD/EUR. This IS the only chart that matters.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/241e71bb-86ca-4648-a00f-670d26855a09

Bird the MCD triangle popped in a last effort to kiss good-bye the lower trendline,looks to be a "e" wave thrust. By the looks of the USD we should rocket up in a 3 of 3, tonight?, very soon. I haven't read ZH lately but I think there are some European bond auctions this week. That will probably resolve all these patterns, onw way or another.


Roger D.

Roger D.

his is posted on ZH today. Should get interesting.

"There's A Very Nasty Storm Brewing in Euroland and Umbrellas Are Selling At Premiums With Insolvent Counterparties Attached - Prepare For It to Get Ugly!"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/theres-very-nasty-storm-brewing-euroland-and-umbrellas-are-selling-premiums-insolvent-counte

HighSchoolKid Trader

No issues Birdster just chillin today and havin' some fun with you while my Lambo is gettin' some mods done.

You the one had a problem with my style yesterday, before I even knew who you were.

It's all cool though no hard feelins fo' shou.

I'm a lover and a jokester not a fighter (unless I gots no other choice).

M'ride should be ready tomorrow and everythin' will be back to "normal". Sorry if I ruffled yo' feathas a bit much don't be hatin' me fo that.

Laugh and enjoy yo'self —can improve your game.

Peace out!


Every Day is "3 of 3 Day"!

Come one, come all to the "3 of 3"! Step right up and watch the "3 of 3"! Marvel at the most powerful wave of them all, the "3 of 3"!

Remember the movie "Groundhog Day"? Well, forget that now because the newest movie that repeats itself over and over again is "3 of 3 Day"!

da bear

Re: Prechter,

His book Conquer the Crash had the chart of the rally off the 2002 lows as a 'B' wave. But he didn't stick to this outlook. Oh, and a couple of years before the top and just doing a trendline, EW thing I found a top around 14,250 or so. Too bad I didn't trade off it. lol

Oh yeah, that Figure 5-7 that I am talking about, where the current super bear market would trace out as a larger version of the 1987 crash (the alternate of alternate counts in At The Crest of the Tidal Wave) can be pointed out in the 1987 chart posted in Dick Arms' outlook (A Call To Arms?). we are in the 2 of 3 while the 3 of 3 (heart of the heart of the crash) is basically the tremendous gap down. The famous part of the crash. It was the "big 3" in 1987 and it will be the "big 3" this time too. (the flash crash was also a '3' with a secondary move lower following a 'snap-back 4.' Same as in 1987). The low in 1987 was at the bottom of the '3'. same in 1932 and it will be the same this time too.

Interesting thought: did anyone count the rise into the 1987 high as a 'B' wave? It looks like that on the chart. since the rally from the previous low looked like the rally from 2002/2003 to 2007 and also like the rally into 1929 (the 1929 top may have also been a 'B' wave. R.N. Elliott or one of the original Elliott guys always maintained that the orthodox top was in 1928. If so, the 1929 top, the 1987 top, and the 2007 top are all 'B' waves. The major crashes that followed were all wave '3's'... the first crash in Oct. 1929 was a '3' of 1.)

Finally, the secondary low in Nov. 1987 was a 5 of 3 (ending wave 3). the rally into 1989 or so was a 'D' wave with the E wave crash in 1989. The 1989 crash was similar to the 1938 crash (a copy-cat crash). Although the 1938 crash counts better as a wave '5' (wave '4' being the rally into 1937). Since Prechter has the deflation ending in 1949 then the rally from 1938 to 1949 is a D wave. The deflation wasn't over yet, and we had a post-war hang-over but the stock market and the economy were basically in bullish mode. The 1987-1989 crash was a smaller version of the 1928-1949 experience. Our current experience is more likely to mimic the 1987 crash along with the elongated 'D' and 'E' wave moves of the Dirty Thirties and Fightin' Forties.

da bear

Roger D.

I haven't looked at all the charts today,but this one continues to look very weak. The Valueline made a all time during the "hope" rally running from 1000 to 2700 in a parabolica. So a poor chart doesn't surprise me.

Mamma my order got filled at the close so I'm ready to go. Given a morning pop will probably add to it again given the opportunity. Bird what was the word you used...conviction.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/55421933-c577-4d33-b331-fe36a08fc009

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