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« Double Dip Countdown: "8" | Main | Tesla IPO Building Momentum »

Monday, June 28, 2010


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Bull so tired clean ok



"Guidance: A break below the Thurs low (Sp1068) confirms a deeper fall is on"

unless the market is simply weak and the x wave of w-x-y takes out the bottom of "i?" only by a tiny bit, just to reverse to 1085 - the end of y and wave "ii?".

Now some finer points worth of examination:
the ending diagonal 5 of "i?" means "too much, too fast" for the drop in wave 3.

If so, wave 2, not necessarily a triangle, but a w-x of w-x-y, should have a decent retracement. Also worth mentioning that wave 2 can be a wxy-X-wxy, i.e go up some more.

I cannot see a count that looks "right" and allows the structure labeled a-b-c-d-e to be counted as wave 4. Please enlighten me.

cheers :)


Triangle Alert


I'm going with Copan Matrix that triangle will break out on the upside, but we'll see.


Steven737, forget the ED.

The count down has a clear i-ii at the start. The iii is the sharp drop from 1116 down to 1079 - it is very clear in the emini. Then a slower and less sharp iv to 1096 (again, emini) and the wave v down to 1069. So far so good. And then we have an expanded flat (B lower than A) which should have ended the B wave trinagle today, or be about to tomorrow.

To make this triangle now a wave iv instead of a B wave of 2, extend the wave iii to end at 1069 with the prior end of iii the end of a smaller degree iii inside wave iii.

Once there the bounce Friday is leg a of iv, the drop to a lower low is leg b (it makes this a running triangle), and then we had cde as shown in the chart in the post. Leg e would have ended today and the dump at the end of the day is the start of wave v down to complete wave 1.


I think we could do this endlessly.

Does anyone else feel there is something missing about the way we collectively approach this?


E-Minis are +3.00 to 1074.00


Thank you Duncan.

Not your fault (LOL),
but this count is so ugly, that the w-x-y-X-w-x-y alternate looks ok!

ES-30m 6-28-2010

Then again, I am certain that I have counted and that I have seen even uglier!



Roger D.

MCD and IBM looked to have completed contratrend rallys today and should impulse down tomorrow. MCD has 8 red daily candles from it's W2 top,very weak and 3 of 3 is very possible here.

Roger D.

Roger D.

MCD updated


Roger D.


Roger D.

Mr. Panic

It looks like a lot of traps were being set today. After spending most of the overnight session deep in the red, they managed to open the SP positive for about one tick negating a sell signal many were following. Put call ratios for the OEX dropped to absurdly low levels commensurate to the levels seen at the March 2009 low painting a picture that insiders are setting up and accumulating for a powerful rally. Attilla over at Xtrends closed out his short positions and indicated he won't scale into shorts again until the fall (very weird after his uberbearish calls the last few weeks). Rumors are abounding that the commercials are going heavily long but I checked out the latest COT report and didn't see that. (although I am not an expert at COT number crunching) Commercials were still more short than long. I didn't see any group disproportinately positioned one way or the other.


An ending diagonal is not supported by the subsequent market action. An ending diagonal is a bullish formation and should be retraced in less time than it formed. That's Neely and Zoran. Thus, no ending diagonal.

Roger D.

The ES tonight

Roger D.

If they don't stick save this by morning,could be ugly.


Put call ratios for the OEX dropped to absurdly low levels commensurate to the levels seen at the March 2009 low

I think you meant high levels.


Roger, yep, the futures have sold off after looking buoyant earlier.

Mr. Panic

No I meant extreme low levels. There was massive call buying at the March 2009 low as insiders had the green light to go long. ISEE put call ratios were at extremes. Go to traders-talk for today's data in the message board section. It's being discussed all over the place over there.
It's fun watching the futures meltdown in the overnight session. Eminis are now below Friday's low.
I want to see how Europe opens although they should be open now. Tomorrow should be the gap down open and drop to the 1040 level ala the June 1930 fractal.


Shanghai Composite Update

After a period of weak consolidation Shanghai Composite has broken to new lows today, going down a whopping 4%. In my last post, i suggested volatility ahead, with a possibility of one more new low. This move, while unnerving to most investors, is probably nothing more than a shaking out of weak hands before a reversal(probably a sharp one) - a head fake of sorts.

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