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« That Sinking Feeling: M3 Falling at 1930s Pace | Main | That Sinking Feeling: G20 Busts the Government Bubble »

Friday, June 04, 2010

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Michael

Excellent summary of the jobs data!

Hank Wernicki

today's Transcript

2:53 pm

1064 !

2:49 pm

1066 and crashing ! wow


2:44 pm

Please Note : The New MFT URL for June will be emailed over the weekend

Please check your email for the new address to login on Monday

Again please verify that you are updated on the subscription fee with PayPal

Yearly Discounts are available for only $1,000.00 per year

Thank you ... Hank Wernicki


2:36 pm

18 point profit if you are still short the SPX via puts for today's trade


2:29 pm

hmmmmmm breaking June 2nd low !!

1070 now for the SPX


2:19 pm

Brilliant call last night ! ... Susan B


2:03 PM

1:47 pm

Scanning


11:54 am

Hank,
 
A question about your stop. By “1105.52”, I think you meant 1105.25, which was the day’s high.
 
It got taken out overnight, but it still strikes me as a good call.
 
What is your phone #?


BobP
  
From: Henry Wernicki [mailto:hwernicki@neo.rr.com]
Sent: Thursday, June 03, 2010 6:09 PM
To: Bob Prechter
Subject: TOMORROW

11:39 am

OUT and FLAT currently for today


11:31 am

Today's SPX Fractal " top tick " short trade is based on the child iteration

from 6/1 10m chart at 1:30 pm <<< Parent / Base


11:24 am

1079 ! wow

8 point profit <<<<<<<<<<< TAKE IT IF YOU WISH <

10 POINTS IS ALL WE WANT FOR A TRADE


11:20

1080 <<<<<<<<< I'm taking profits here now

OR LOWER YOUR STOP AND HOLD TODAY <<<<<<<<


11:13 am

Lowering the Stop to the short entry point at 1087.60

Break even here

OR keep the Original Stop

SPX is now trading at 1083 -------- 4 points

on the ES that's $200.00 per contract profit


10:53 am

Short and holding at 1085 now for the SPX short trade


10:45 AM

1087.60 <<<<<< SHORT THE SPX

1088.28 STOP

RISKING 2 POINTS

DAY TRADE


10:23 am

Select some SPX Put Option for a day trade

scanning and waiting


10:19 am

Today's SPX Open is similar to June 1st 10m bottom

May rally to 1096 and could be a short entry

scanning

9:52 am

Scanning

9:42 am

Scanning for a setup


9:30 am


Quick Alert 8:07 AM EDT
MFT Signals
Fri, Jun 04, 2010 8:09 am
Hank

I'M TAKING PROFITS AT 1095 FOR THE es SHORT TRASDE

IF YOU WISH LOWER THE STOP AND HOLD


8:30 am

ES IS TRADING NOW AT 1083 DOWN 20 POINTS

COVERED TOO SOON

nspolar

Hank, good post. Appreciate the honesty of it all and more.

There ain't no real bears around. They all got yanked around too hard on the way up. Now what is left are 'Pussy Bears'.

A while back I suggested one evaluate the Yelnick Blog Sentiment factor. It hit again.

This mother is going a long ways down into the hole!

Commodity shorts especially! HUI cracking here now, so good ole SMN will be playing double time.

ns

Mamma Boom Boom

>This mother is going a long ways down into the hole!<

I say, NO!

nspolar

Mama, look at some longer term charts, especially in some of the inverse ETF's.

ns

nspolar

Mama, you were so worked up you left your italics on again.

ns

Mamma Boom Boom

it's off now

I've 'been' looking at charts

upstart

I'm with Futia and Mamma in the short term. Not going into the hole until July.

nspolar

Yelnick, the V versus the W?

Maybe it will be a V, we're still in the first leg down possibly.

The market always messes with the majority, somehow, someway. It is a devious one, especially this one.

ns

yelnick

ns, this is no longer a V. Sure, GDP sometimes jinks and jives on the way up, but we have been fading since Q4 and by all the looks of it Q2 will be no better than Q1. It is not yet a W.

Mamma Boom Boom

Today's action satisfies my projections, going out several days, actually. Wow, what a day. Should be safe to start buying, by noon Monday.
---------------------
Upstart, if I'm right, this is going to shock everyone.
---------------------
Hank, you get a better grade than me, this time.

Mamma (A)
Hank (A+)

Roger D.

The USD made a new high today. This market will head lower quickly back to the March '09 lows. There's not a bullish Dow chart out there,none. Infact most have been in rising wedges since the '09 bottom. Will this market crash.....yes without a doubt.

Roger D.

Steven_737


Hi Duncan;

Today's price action and wave count on Globex 24 hours chart

http://steven737.typepad.com/blog/2010/06/wave-analysis-es-06042010.html

and

http://steven737.typepad.com/blog/2010/06/wave-analysis-nq-06042010.html

cheers :)

Mamma Boom Boom

Gold does appear to be breaking down, here. It's not totally conclusive, but getting close.

Looks like inflation will go the same way as ____________.(you fill in the blank)
Paris Hilton? Cough!

anonymous

"This market will head lower quickly back to the March '09 lows. There's not a bullish Dow chart out there,none. Infact most have been in rising wedges since the '09 bottom. Will this market crash.....yes without a doubt." - Roger D.

And yet you have not made one single short recommendation. Hmmmm...

Mamma Boom Boom

Don't forget, guys, "It's all in the waves".

Now, it's time for me to wave goodbye. I have to go Club'in.

Say, Bye Mamma! Don't do anything I wouldn't do.

nspolar

Yelnick;

ns, this is no longer a V. Sure, GDP sometimes jinks and jives on the way up, but we have been fading since Q4 and by all the looks of it Q2 will be no better than Q1. It is not yet a W.

I wonder if you understood.

The V ... we could be in a BIG V; we have yet to hit bottom of the BIG V. The Big V would have started in late 2007, with the leg to the bottom of the V in progress and an ABC. The bottom hits in 2011, then varoom leaves all The Bears behind and wipes em out.

In fact since you were so quick to rule it out I think I now make it my favorite.

ns

upstart

Bye Mamma. Don't do anything I wouldn't do.

upstart

Jim Rogers has stated we're in a corrective period. That certainly means it will take more time than the one-month corrections we had June-July '09 and Jan.-Feb. 2010. I think there's more to go, but a gap-down day on bad news does not sway my opinion that a bounce comes first.

nspolar

Paul sounds off.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/06/03/mccartney_bashes_bush_its_great_to_have_a_president_who_knows_what_a_library_is.html

Da Brits!

I think mama went club'in and left her italics on.

ns

Steven_737

test

Steven_737

italics fixed

:)

Steven_737

italics fixed

:)

Roger D.

"And yet you have not made one single short recommendation. Hmmmm..."

Baby needs his butt wiped too. If you have followed my charts for the last week,todays break was no surprise.

Z-M-L

After dipping to 1061, the SPX closed at its 61.8% retracement from the orthodox high of 1104 on May 27th. The last 5-TD has unfolded as an Irregular Flat. An Irregular Flat in the Wave-2 position indicates the upcoming Wave-3 rally will be exceptionally powerful and extended on the order of 2.618 (versus a normal 1.618) of Wave-1; which projects to 1226.

The action over the last few weeks has scared the chit out of the retail investor and released the required inventory needed to push these markets back up through the 200-day MA,50-day MA, and beyond. Quoting Don Wolanchuk, "the boyz are in complete control".

Have Great Weekend!

Z-M-L

Shrimp Lomein

ZML, I see the Irregular flat wave 2!

Time for the bulls to rock.

Shrimp Lomein

Wall street circuit breakers are supposed to start monday, the contrarian in me saying:

ES futures L-O-C-K L-I-M-I-T U-P?

Roger D.

"ES futures L-O-C-K L-I-M-I-T U-P?"

I'm glad you had a ? mark

JNJ is most bearish, but not the only one,the Dow looks terrible on a whole. Next week has a 50/50 chance of another 1000 pt break. The real killer will be the possibility of a high volume distribution day. If we trade 2-2.5+ billion shares early next week, the crash odds go way up.

Roger D.

http://content.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/dacf829b-f64f-4373-bbd6-2514f914c7e0/2010-06-04_1543.png


Mr. Panic

CRITICAL MILESTONE almost achieved!!!! It's right on the brink. It's all but assured to be achieved on Monday unless the Dow is up 300 pts which is pretty unlikely. Everything is falling into place including crucial numerology.

Shrimp Lomein

The Elliott waves on the chart look pretty darn bullish from a textbook view.

May 25 lows to 1104 high = 5 waves up textbook impulsive rally

Then came a textbook irregular flat ABC where wave b goes higher than previous wave 5 with final c wave selling that looks corrective not impulsive.

If ZML is right, the ES could explode higher in a fibonacci 2.618 bear crushing rally.

Shrimp Lomein

ES is sitting on textbook fibonacci .618 retracement as a textbook wave 2 should.

Textbook buying panic could get out of control if a textbook wave 3 shows up next week.

Textbook bullish Monday would be "down" open on textbook "Asian overseas panic" then after the open the ES does a textbook sharp reversal higher.


Roger D.

AAPL is a classic commodity blowoff situation. A shorting opportunity....you be the judge.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/b09dccb3-a9c7-4bd3-99f5-0a59501e0d7b

Shrimp Lomein

Lets say AAPL is a 1929 RCA.

RCA stock rose 936% from 5 years into 1929

If AAPL follows RCA, From $35 5 years ago AAPL could still rally to $363.

Chico

Hank,

I'm a little confused by your post. Did the short recommendation make money or not? It appears the trade was stopped out for a loss. By the way, are you going to offer a free trial as you've mentioned in the past?

PUSSY NS POLARBEAR

There ain't no real bears around. They all got yanked around too hard on the way up. Now what is left are 'Pussy Bears'.

A while back I suggested one evaluate the Yelnick Blog Sentiment factor. It hit again.

Posted by: nspolar | Friday, June 04, 2010 at 12:06 PM


MORE ACURATE TO SAY:

THE ONLY BEARS LEFT ARE PUSSY NSPOLAR BEARS.

JA JA JA

Since the rally started there have been very few posters compared to before. Yelnick's blog always has a PUSSY NSPOLARBEAR BIAS regardless of what's going on.

If you didn't have the observational skills of a Gekko you would know that. Did you even make any money today?

I thought so, what a ball-less little pussy nspolarbear trying to act big.

JA JA JA.

Shrimp Lomein

Bears are everywhere

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37228003

OracleLurker

Earlier i compared this jobs report's effect on the market's current cycle up-phase to a boulder getting tossed in the ocean when the right analogy turned out to be an asteroid landing in a swimming pool - this up-phase has sustained some pretty major damage. Still negative sentiment has peaked and that should keep us in a choppy sideways up-phase for several weeks. But I have taken my losses and cut my long exposure by 60% - the silver lining is what this portends for the next down phase albeit still several weeks away if not more.

the general

I'm sure the PPT and the EU will be working overtime this weekend putting together an all out plan to light a fire under stocks for Monday morning. It may succeed to temporarily postpone the inevitable, again. I believe that finally many are coming to the to realization that they are being lied to with all the skewed data that is being reported. The emperor has no clothes. The average 401k holder will not stand by this time and again watch their savings go down the drain. They will bail. When that starts the selling will overwhelm any efforts to prop up the markets. A depressionary spiral will accelerate downward until the excesses are wrung out of the markets. There's a lot of money to be made on the short side. Down hard and fast, beyond what most believe is even possible. The flash crash was just a preview.

Mr. Panic, can you please elaborate (or direct to a site) on the milestone and numerology that you are referencing?

yelnick

ns, on your V read you as talking about GDP and a V shaped recovery. On the stock V, normally it would bounce hard off a 2011 bottom, but let's not presume that yet

Shrimp Lomein

has anyone looked at the NASDAQ monthly chart?

that is one bullish looking chart! this rally looks only halfway over on the monthly NAZ!

Roger D.

"SEC's Circuit Breaker Rule: Idiotic

There's dumb, and then there's criminally insane." Karl Denninger


http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2333-SECs-Circuit-Breaker-Rule-Idiotic.html

Monday they start this circuit breaker crap, don't they???

If I was long I would be scared shitless.

Roger D.

nspolar

More BP and Oil Related Rhetoric;

Just when BP could use some encouragement for getting onto the right path, we get:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100605/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama_gulf_oil_spill

Are all of these DUDES (especially Obama) playing the polsters?

ns previously stated that the latest attempt by BP should yield some positive results. Too early to summarize but the initial results look promising. I have to think my compatriots in the engineering world will come through.

The BP engineers are imo taking up the slack here. The fakesters have more than likely been pushed to the sidelines.

I watched the videos the other day of the 'slicing action'. The Terminator came to mind. This is high tech stuff folks. Great stuff, but too bad it has to be a part of a big mess.

ns

Roger D.

he purest Elliot form....I haven't seen anybody address this current EW pattern,but in the daily $TRAN average,it just doesn't get any simpler than this. The only complex think is the 1,2,1,2 formation,but so far this pattern reminds me of 1987. Also the nested 1,2,s forecast a acceleration dead ahead.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/c6bb3db8-17c6-4a33-8206-00e7e7ce54cb

Roger D.


I apoligise for my spelling

The purest Elliot form....I haven't seen anybody address this current EW pattern,but in the daily $TRAN average,it just doesn't get any simpler than this. The only complex thing is the 1,2,1,2 formation,but so far this pattern reminds me of 1987. Also the nested 1,2,s forecast a acceleration dead ahead.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/c6bb3db8-17c6-4a33-8206-00e7e7ce54cb

An Israeli A Jew

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOGG_osOoVg

yelnick

Roger D, nice chart - with the drop today it fits a nested 1-2. The drop was very intense, which the STU says is "exactly what one would expect in a third wave decline of multiple degrees of trend"

Roger D.

The $TRAN 3rd wave in progress today. Looks to be ready to gap down Monday in a 3 of 3, we shall see.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/cbb266cf-52b3-45e5-993f-4c03a583f34f

Roger D.

The catalyst for a crash....

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/8ea2fbe0-accc-4978-98c4-e33df1476a07

nspolar needs a spine

nspolar:

Are you really An Israeli also? or just a pussy polar bear that likes to post a bunch of crap no one cares for? Why not post the U-Tube video under your normal call sign? Why use An Israeli A Jew?

Just as I thought, no balls AND NO SPINE AS WELL!!

An Israeli A Jew

nspolar:

Are you really An Israeli also? or just a pussy polar bear that likes to post a bunch of crap no one cares for? Why not post the U-Tube video under your normal call sign? Why use An Israeli A Jew?

Just as I thought, no balls AND NO SPINE AS WELL!!
-----------------------------------------------------


Sorry, my friend - I do not know if u can hate that other guy because he is a Jew. I am not him.
Please do hate me. We are use to it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOGG_osOoVg&annotation_id=annotation_665723&feature=iv

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