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« That Sinking Feeling: M3 Falling at 1930s Pace | Main | That Sinking Feeling: G20 Busts the Government Bubble »

Friday, June 04, 2010

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Hank Wernicki


Monday :


Strong Rally "IF" Friday's Low holds for the SPX

Thursday's Iteration ( time and price )

The Aussie Dollar has declined ( so far ) about 4 % down on its Fractal

Hockthefarm

A pretty good call on the current weakness:

http://www.pring.com/pdfs/cyclicoutlook.pdf

Hock

Roger D.

"Monday :


Strong Rally "IF" Friday's Low holds for the SPX

Thursday's Iteration ( time and price )

The Aussie Dollar has declined ( so far ) about 4 % down on its Fractal"

Hello Hank,

What do you think about this???


http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/9cb69030-b720-439b-b445-cb435161a4ae


Roger D.

Roger D.

So they (SEC) postponed the individual CB's until next week. Looking at the above chart on the UK-FTSE,this coming week,we get another 1000pt break and then a sharp rally back and then,just in time for the insanity CB's a "crash". A full scale panic with limit moves all the way down to the March lows.

Will it happen? If those are in common fractals in my chart, I think so.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/9cb69030-b720-439b-b445-cb435161a4ae

katzo7

Hi Yelnick,
I am a fan of your site. Been calling ES moves real time on Evilspeculator lately and posting short term and long term E Wave charts over there.

Mamma Boom Boom

"Did you hear that big thud on Friday? That was the sound of Jupiter-Uranus express barreling down the tracks to the thrill and awe of all. One day big gains, the next day big losses. Who is in charge here? Well, Mr. Uranus in Aries, of course! And he never strives for consistency or predictability, only surprise and the unexpected.

If you can, imagine a scene like getting into a brand new Ferrari. Glittering in the night lights, you jump into the driver’s seat and take it for spin at top speed. After all, it is Uranus in Aries! And speed matters. Suddenly the lights go out and the accelerator gets stuck.

This is the week that Jupiter makes its long anticipated entrance into Aries and forms its first of three conjunctions to Uranus. We will now officially be into a New Era, per the themes of Aries. We will also enter a yet deeper layer of this incredible Cardinal Climax celestial phenomenon that began in 2008 and will last to some extent into 2023. But the peak is 2008-2015, just as the last such peak was 1928-1934. On Thursday, May 30, the 84-orbital cycle of Uranus moved into Aries. On Sunday, June 6, Jupiter will make its entrance through the portal of the new zodiac (Aries). Two days later, on June 8, Jupiter and Uranus will make the first of three 14-year cyclical conjunctions. Do you believe in miracles? If so, this may the time that may validate that belief (now through September 18, when the second passage of this conjunction takes place)."

Wave Rust

V recovery? imo, recovery is looking more and more like a down zigzag ,,,, the zig up was built on sand - a trillion in Obama political payoffs to cronies and leftist wing-nut ideas while raising taxes and letting tax cuts expire.

------------
Everything is on track for the Obama-Soros-Rockefeller desired end of American democracy as we know it. The oppression by means of a Depression is coming.

Unemployment will eventually top the 30's, the Eurozone gets its first and last depression, but the stock market will continue to rally next year and the year after. The federal reserve is out on the corner selling pencils and apples. Things are really spinning out of control.
-------------

Why else would I be bullish? With the news this "bad", the rally that comes from 'out of nowhere' is the one thing to watch out for by the end of the month ,,,, not yet, but the setup of a "big rally then crash" to new lows is days away.
That should end the "A" wave down, then the "B" wave up with "C" down ending maybe at Thanksgiving or New Years eve.

It's not ugly enough yet, nor taken enough time, to have corrected the first 13 month bullish leg.

So far, the A wave looks complete or nearly completed ,,,, but it hasn't even touched the 38% retracement yet ,,,, when the A is over, it should be obvious by the 15th whether it's over or extending.

Stay happy. Tread and trade lightly.

wave rust

Roger D.

Another thing that stands out is that many stocks and averages have traced out "Three Peaks and a domed House. This pattern is so far correct in time and space. The interesting thing is that if it plays out, the market should make a crash low in the 3rd week of June. Buckle up it's going to be a stunner. A note in 1987 a dollar crisis was the catalyst for the crash, This time it will be the USD/EUR. Ben Bernanke's China Syndrome in the carry trade will finally take a vise grip on the markets.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/297956b6-ed3e-4fd5-b5b5-6d1cbb3ea1b7

Viper

Employed percentage is dropping in part due to the massive numbers of baby boomers retiring EVERY DAY -- why do all you blog writers ignore this glaring fact?

yelnick

Steven_737, I think it important to correlated predictions in US markets with global markets, as everything is connected. I am concerned that the counts you have put on these global indexes have an inside wave 2 of iii as larger and longer than the outside wave ii.  An alternative is to make your wave iii an extended fifth wave


You can see this concept cropping up in ewave sites, or the alternative of a big leading diagonal which puts us in wave 5 down. The Flash Bounce was like a normal wave 2 - sharp and right at 62%. The more recent correction went only 38% against the whole drop, and was largely sideways - showing alternation and behaving like a wave 4. Hence Friday could have started us in a wave 5 down, especially in the ES charts where we precisely hit 38% on the overnight run to 1107. 


If an LD: it should not go below 970 before a big bounceif an extended fifth: could really go anywhere, and at least to 860 which the H&S pattern predicts (right shoulder is flash bounce high)

yelnick

viper, the BLS model takes Boomer retirement into consideration .. what they cannot do a good job on are Boomers who still wish to work but drop out of visibility eg. never collect unemployment or stop collecting, so they no longer show up as trying to find a job. Given how poor Boomer savings are, and lack of confidence in Medicare and Social Security, Boomers are striving to continue earning income.

Trader 123


http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2333-SECs-Circuit-Breaker-Rule-Idiotic.html

"Monday they start this circuit breaker crap, don't they??? If I was long I would be scared shitless." - Roger D.

Roger,

With all due respect, my guess is that you are NEVER LONG so it really doesn't matter. LOL!

As for believing everyting that Karl Denninger writes and all of these other bloggers on the web . . . I would strongly suggest that you maintain a carefully educated "eye". Reading your posts, it seems as though you peruse the blogosphere simply looking for articles that "fit" your opinion.

Denninger's analogy to limit-down commodity type moves ( ie. Corn ) because of a lack of uniformity of the circuit breaker rule across all major stock indexes (and not just the S&P 500) doesn't hold any water whatsoever when one understands the FACT that there are no limits in the front month of a commodity.

Using Denninger's example regarding CORN going limit down . . . Anyone who is long a back-month in CORN that is going limit down against him, can in fact sell the front-month as a hedge since there are no limits in the front month. Duh.

It's amazing that Denninger is unaware of this. Perhaps he's just another "paper-trader" like so many of the bloggers on the web these days.

Roger D.

The fact is that although what you say is probably true, fact is after a parabolic move in a commodity,the resulting decline can be charachterised as a collapse.

One thing is true a individual circuit breaker for the S&P 500 has never been tried before. Will it have an effect on the markets? My and your opinion is purely speculation at this point,but anytime you interfere, unintended consequences are the rule.

Thanks for the reply.

Roger D.

Trader 123

Roger,

You are incorrect.

Up until November of 2007, there already was a type of "circuit breaker" on the S&P 500 as it pertains to program trading. When the DJIA moved 2% from its previous close, trading curbs became activated on program trading. The curbs restricted program trades to sell only on upticks and buy only on downticks.

I must say that you seem to be rather obsessed with using the word COLLAPSE in just about every post that you make. How active of a trader are you? How old are you and how long have you been trading the markets?

Roger D.

Trader 123,

I have been trading since 1974, I have probably seen more in the markets than most. I agree that I am bearish now, I was in 1987, 1990,2000,2007, Jan 2009 and now. I have been pissing in the tall weeds with the big dogs for a long time. Your just a pup.

Roger D.

Mr. Panic

To the general, the milestone is a technical indicator but I can't elaborate on it or the sockpuppets will go ballistic. They were already out in full force yesterday. Maybe I'll discuss it Monday afterhours. I would recommend you try to find the audio of a recent Larry Pesavento interview that was posted here recently in one of the comments sections. There is a red pill site out there but you'll have to search the blogosphere for it. There are links to it eventually from some of the blogger sites that Yelnick covers. But I won't mention it here since the trolls drove one its star posters offline.

As for the numerology. I was focusing on the 28 trading days from the top that marked the Gann Kill Zone (borrowing the term from Jeff Cooper) tops in 1987,1929 as well as a cycle that came in on June 2 that I lost focus of some numerology that came into play on June 3rd and which I have mentioned here in the past. Back on March 15 or 16 I mentioned there had been 6 cycles of 43 trading day cycles or 258 trading days since the March 6,2009 low with the 9-9-09 date. The square root of 666==25.8. That date did not produce a top but the market continued to rally 27 trading days into the April 23 top. 27 or (999) trading days off the April 23rd was June 3rd or 6-3 or 6*3 (by the way,march 2009 low was 3-6-9) Russell 2000 closed at 666 on June 3rd. So numerology won out over the historical pattern but it really didn't matter because one should have been looking for a top around those dates anyway. (In 1929 and 1987 days 27,28 were dojis)
But that's just the tip of the iceberg for the numerology. There is plenty more coming up.

And judging from your comments I see you follow JS too.

Roger D.

Trader 123

Tell me one thing that bullish about this chart of MCD....go ahead.

There are bulls and traders that just love to give me shit. I'm bearish for a reason, not for the sake of being so.

I went short Wednesday at the close,when nobody else had the balls to do so. Atleast I'm one of the few here that post charts and puts my ass on the line.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/610f687b-5cf7-40c9-b7d8-8a19bc527fcd

Mr. Panic

9-9-09 date was the midpoint of the 6 43 trading day cycles.

Roger D.

"To the general, the milestone is a technical indicator but I can't elaborate on it or the sockpuppets will go ballistic. They were already out in full force yesterday. Maybe I'll discuss it Monday afterhours. I would recommend you try to find the audio of a recent Larry Pesavento interview that was posted here recently in one of the comments sections. There is a red pill site out there but you'll have to search the blogosphere for it. There are links to it eventually from some of the blogger sites that Yelnick covers. But I won't mention it here since the trolls drove one its star posters offline.

As for the numerology. I was focusing on the 28 trading days from the top that marked the Gann Kill Zone (borrowing the term from Jeff Cooper) tops in 1987,1929 as well as a cycle that came in on June 2 that I lost focus of some numerology that came into play on June 3rd and which I have mentioned here in the past. Back on March 15 or 16 I mentioned there had been 6 cycles of 43 trading day cycles or 258 trading days since the March 6,2009 low with the 9-9-09 date. The square root of 666==25.8. That date did not produce a top but the market continued to rally 27 trading days into the April 23 top. 27 or (999) trading days off the April 23rd was June 3rd or 6-3 or 6*3 (by the way,march 2009 low was 3-6-9) Russell 2000 closed at 666 on June 3rd. So numerology won out over the historical pattern but it really didn't matter because one should have been looking for a top around those dates anyway. (In 1929 and 1987 days 27,28 were dojis)
But that's just the tip of the iceberg for the numerology. There is plenty more coming up.

And judging from your comments I see you follow JS too."

If the 1929 & 1987 pattern hold true here in the present, we should see a bottom in 11 trading days,June 21+- 1 day at or near the March '09 low.

Roger D.

Mr. Panic

This has been a weird mixture of 1929 and 1987. My technical indicator will get very oversold fast so there is going to be a monster interim bounce. I've got the blueprint LOL!!!! June 21st is a cycle date though.

Trader 123

"Tell me one thing that bullish about this chart of MCD....go ahead.

There are bulls and traders that just love to give me shit. I'm bearish for a reason, not for the sake of being so.

I went short Wednesday at the close, hen nobody else had the balls to do so. Atleast I'm one of the few here that post charts and puts my ass on the line." - Roger

What's bullish about MCD you ask?
It made a new high for the move before pulling back. That's bullish.

I think that it's great that you continually post charts here of MCD and IBM. But what in God's name does that have to do with putting your ass on the line?

Mr. Pussy

"There is a red pill site out there but you'll have to search the blogosphere for it. There are links to it eventually from some of the blogger sites that Yelnick covers. But I won't mention it here since the trolls drove one of its star posters offline." - Mr. Panic

Then why even mention it???

nspolar needs a spine

"Please do hate me. We are use to it.
Posted by: An Israeli A Jew | Saturday, June 05, 2010 at 05:27 AM "

I believe you.

If there is one thing jews do well is complain about things whether real or imaginary.

Roger D.

Might as well post a IBM chart. Out of all the Dow charts this is the most interesting. IBM actually made top Jan 19th iirc and then thrust down in 5 waves. Since then it has waited for the rest of the market to get in gear to the downside. A 5 point reversal is in place and like most market leaders is now setup for a 3 of 3 down.

Most amazing is IBM made it's wave 5 top in 2000 and has since been in a supercycle triangle( 10 years) completeing wave "E" in January. My Interpretation is a fast decline back to the 60 to 70 area before a bottom.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/ad3d8666-1d4b-4183-8de9-c027c6ae570f

swingwaves

Roger D,

3 weeks ago Gann expert Bill McLaren posted this chart...

http://www.mclarenreport.com.au/images4/e0514spe.jpg

swingwaves

We should know by 10:50 am EST Monday morning (time enough for any morning reversal to take hold) if June 5th was some type of trading low.

HighSchool PaperTrader

Uh, June 5th can already be confirmed as a NO trading day

Pup's Dad

Roger D WROTE:

"I have been trading since 1974, I have probably seen more in the markets than most. I agree that I am bearish now, I was in 1987, 1990,2000,2007, Jan 2009 and now. I have been pissing in the tall weeds with the big dogs for a long time. Your just a pup.

Roger D."

Gee paw, Mr RogerD sure has a purdy track record.

Yes pup It's just like that good ol' boy's from Georgia who also has a lot of experience but still can't seem to hit the side of a mountain with a shot gun at 20 paces —except on ocassion.

Paw, why you reckon they have a similar track record?

Well Pup, I reckon it's because he's the Georgian Gent's ass-lickin' big dog.

That's mighty funny paw but it makes sense.

Yes Pup I reck'n it is funny but also tragic as you can't teach an old dog new tricks so he'll continue making the same mistakes over and over again just like his master.

Paw, I'm sad for Mr RogerD. Seems like all that ass lickin he did was for nuthin'.

Well pup there is a silver lining, as long as he stays pissing in the tall weeds with his other big dog friends and doesn't venture into the Elephant Grass, we won't ever have to take a dump on him and the tigers won't ever eat him for breakfast.

Thanks paw, I feel better now, I think I'll go over to the tall weeds and show him how we elephants piss.

Atta Boy Pup.

Roger D.

That's funny! How elephant's piss. What is not funny is the condition of this market currently. There are major big red lights flashing...warning currency crisis, financial panic probable.

Bernanke's experiment to short all volitilty has failed. The only thing that came out of it was to produce the end game,a transfer of debt from private to pulic sectors. A by product of that was a equity bubble.

Look the feeble countertrend rally this past week was a sign that the nested 1,2 count is real. The grand supercycle rising wedge in the SPX and Dow is real. Friday the USD went above 87.500 which tells me that the largest market in the world thinks we have now crossed the deflation point of no return.

Be careful! This market will track the USD/EUR, if the USD rallies the market will decline, its a inverse relationship. But at some point the "china syndrome will kick in, if that happens, this market will crash.

1040 on the SPX is major,if that's broken, we go down to 950 fast. From there we could get a violent rebound on tremendous volume. Don't be fooled,because then this market will crash into the 600 level.

I have posted enough charts. Proceed at your own peril. Good luck.

Roger D.

the general

Thanks Mr. P,
Didn't realize I was being so revealing.

Wave Rust

Is SPX 1165 available for an overnight stay?

Set your trading GPS for that target.

Shorts and a blazer don't work together, except in the fools parade.

The whole move down has the same signature of the October '08 low and the Feb'10 low.

I think the sideways action from October '08 through November '08 is repeating. It scared the crap out of everyone before ,,,, it should work again.

The markets are still an investor's nightmare, but a trader's smorgasbord.

There is only one bus driver in the markets ,,,, just one. Figure out who it is and win. Just get on the bus.

Blazer week ahead.

wave rust

Roger D.

Don't count on the Elite's puppet Bernanke to bail you out. The market is sending him the big fuck you pal,greeting,last Friday.

Roger D.

The S&P 500 cash. Many Internet Ewavers such as Tony C., Daneric,Binve,ect., are expecting a bounce at 1040, maybe, but my chart tells me it will come at 950ish. The large H&S pattern has a target of 860. The "Wedge" target is the March '09 low.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/87ea08c9-1e41-4e3e-aa28-bc5769be03ac

High School Kid Trader

PLOPGH!!

OH MY!

That was the sound of Roger D. Getting dumped on over in the elephant grass.

He shoulda stayed in the tall weeds. He's one smelly bastard now.

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