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« Big Tease is Back! | Main | Corporate Bonds: The Next Safe Haven? »

Monday, June 14, 2010

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Account Deleted

SPY trading in a range shown in half hour chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/spdrs-sp-500-trust-series-etfspy-range.html

Molecool

Nice write up - thanks Yelnick.

Mamma Boom Boom

>Monday June 14th
9:30 am

15m top for the ES , Gap Down Sunday / Monday<

Hank, how many points down do you think?

I think the odds are extremely low, that we would get a meaningful drop. The multi-month uptrend is in full gear, IMO.

Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Saturday, June 12, 2010 at 01:12 PM<

----------------------

Ding, ding ding!

School's in, Hank.

And Mamma's holding class.

RT

Believe in the monkey and he will come.

Wave Rust

i see Caldaro has a more sensible degreed count for this move from the March '09 lows.

makes much better sense as an intermediate degree wave.

wave are just like ugly babies.

wave rust

Wave Rust

whoops

wave 1's are just like ugly babies

wave rust

Account Deleted

Dow jones broke out of the flag on friday and will find tough to cross 10320-10330
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dow-jones-flying-high-from-flag.html

sherman Mccoy

Prechter is out to make a buck, selling fear. The amazing thing is he's still in business. I followed his theme in '00 and made money in the dot com bust. I gave up on him and Hochberg when they denied the 2003 rally for 4 years!. I put him in the same category as Howard Ruff - broken clock right twice every 30 years or so. Lets face it, he's no Ralph Elliott. If he were any good, he'd call the price and the date. Anyway, the Elliott Theory is elegant, but calling tops and bottoms is not the key to making money - pushing a trend is.

Your site speaks volumes by the fact it ignores an incredible trend and Elliott pattern in Gold. The people that masochistically keep looking to go short the S&P have my sympathy, I just hope they have day jobs.

Maybe this site would be better if it looked at some bigger picture themes, like the looming bubble in Australia and its impact on AUD. Or the pattern in wheat and its fundamental underpinnings. Fractals exist everywhere in nature, why limit yourself to one index?

Roger D

I'M going short here the 1104 window is at the top.

Roger D.

RT

careful guys! I wouldnt try to top pick this thing.

the trend is your friend.

Trader 123

"the trend is your friend"

Amen.

DG

careful guys! I wouldnt try to top pick this thing.

Agreed. I've never read about a successful trader who tried to top-tick every short trade or bottom-tick every long. Might as well hit the roulette wheel.

DG

"the trend is your friend"

Amen.

Well, let's not overstate things. Calling a 5-day rally in the midst of a nearly month and a half decline "the trend" is pretty biased. The actual "trend" is now down.

Yes, I know there are traders here who catch ever single tick of every single move, but let's talk about the rest of us who don't have the precognitive capabilities of our billionaire trader friend and have to settle for less than 1-bazillion percent gains/year.

RT

By 'trend' I mean the tradeable trend.

Typically the 15 min or hourly chart.

You could go short here trading the monthly chart and likely be ok, but there may be better entry spot.

Mamma Boom Boom

"Charles Nenner, technical analyst to the stars, says it is safe to buy the S&P 500 (SPY) this week for a trade because the big crash isn’t coming until the fall. Oh, and while you’re at it, short gold (GLD) as soon as it dips below $1,200."

Steven_737

This guy has a smart comment:

by doggis
on Mon, 06/14/2010 - 10:34
#412599

ever since nenner lost GS as a client, his predictions are less than reliable. he was on CNBC last year this time (post losing GS as client) and predicted a stair stepping decline in the markets to a lower low than the march of 09 lows..... i think GS had a way of making his previous 'predictions' come true.........unfortunately he is now just another human....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charles-nenner-says-market-won%E2%80%99t-crash-until-fall#comment-412585

Account Deleted

Dow jones the resistance seems to be strong
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dow-jones-resistance-seems-to-be-strong.html

barack0

Ding, ding ding!

School's in, Hank.

And Mamma's holding class.
===============
Once again, no substance, all BS.

Mamma Boom Boom

>Once again, no substance, all BS.
Posted by: barack0 | Monday, June 14, 2010 at 09:45 AM<

What are you looking for, someone to hold your hand?

barack0

You give no basis for any calls, yet come here as master trader! More like masterbater! Waste of time, prob not even a chic. Now that's scary!

Roger D

BP has started another wave down and this market looks just a little nervous here.

Chabazite

So according to your illustrious president, BP is now no more than a terrorist organisation. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/us_and_canada/10307782.stm Of course the spill was pre-meditated, deliberate and designed to shock the citizens of the USA to the core just as 9/11 did. In fact, Britain is your oldest friend. We are the most pro-US country outside of the US. And old friends will sometimes have to impart information that the other party may find hurtful and disturbing. Well, I am going to impart some information to you about your president now and I hope that in good time you may find it in your hearts to find some truth in what I say. BARAK OBAMA IS ACTING LIKE A COMPLETE PRICK. That is P for Peter, R for Romeo, I for India, C for Charley, K for Kilo. If he wants to loose his oldest friend, do further damage to the US economy, and not face up to the truth of the matter (US subcontractors like Haliburton and Transocean are in this every bit as much as is 'British Petroleum', but this matter has not yet been explored in any depth), then he is sure going about this in the right way.

Mamma Boom Boom

>You give no basis for any calls, yet come here as master trader!<

So, ...you admit that your only reason for lurking here is to 'get something for nothing".

I would suggest you visit your local 'free' library, get some books on trading, learn to think for yourself. Because, I'm sure as hell not going to help you.

barack0

Momma, Dude, you are comical, much like this whole blog. At least yelnick gives thoughtful reasoning to support his opinion. You are like a fly on the wall....bzzz...bzzz...bzzz

da bear

I think the Big Tease count is correct. Which is the count I was agreeing with. So if that wave 1 broke in five waves, should this wave 2 break in 3 waves?

If so, the first move off the Big Tease low could be an 'a'. Then a total retracement for wave 'b.' Now finally we can get a 'c'. I thought that stocks would make its wave 2 high by early July. Well, for us to get there, then I think that we are in 'c' up possibly.

da bear

da bear

"the trend is your friend."

ah, but you usually don't pick your friends. lol

da bear

RT

Roger I wouldnt use BP as a bellweather, they have their own problems.

Only thing nervous here is the bears who are scared they could get caught in a short squeeze at any second.

RT

Bulz are gunning 4 the stops, wunce the stops r hit ths rally could rly pick up steam

yelnick

da bear - the wave 2 of the Big Tease could be breaking as simple as an ABC flat, where we already had A and then B almost down to the start (and below it in some indexes). This wave C began to look like a double zigzag but now seems to be continuing as a more normal five-wave C. 
If A went around 65 S&P pts, then C at 1.6 A should end up around 105 pts, or right in the range of 1140-1150if A+B took 10 trading days, C might be expected to go 16 TDs, or from Jun8 to Jun30


It is a bit early to express these targets with high confidence, since this wave may break in a more complex form. Still, the idea the rally ends around the turn of the quarter makes some sense given a desire to make the Q2 numbers look good but back out of Q3 which contains the dreaded month of Sept. Rather than a big 3 wave down in July, we might instead see yet another 1-2 setup into August. 

Wave Rust

Chab,
Fear not. Obama has been exposed for the idiot he is. The American people know it. The world knows it, including the embarassed Nobel committee.

What we, the American people, think and believe is what really matters.

Obama is nearly Mr. Irrelevant.

Americans still remain friends, even when friends have problems.

The MTV types like the Obama Koolaid drinkers are ignorant.

One thing though, tell BP to not B.S. people. That'll pissoff everybody, including your friends.

wave rust

Steven_737

a short on 5 min chart is triggering here ES 1093
NQ 1861;

Lets see how she goes

Roger D

Looks like impulses to me...hold on baby.

Steven_737

Targets ES for partial exits
1091.5
1088
1085.5
1082

Not a trading recommendation;
just my take.

da bear

yelnick,

that looks about right to me. Looking at the DOW I think that either way, a 'c' wave high or a iii of wave 2 high would come in around 10,500 to 10,700. But we might not be sure if that is THE high unless DOW 10,250 or so is broken to the downside.

I would think that gold and oil will top along with stocks. I am looking at gold being in a giant 'B' of CYCLE 4 move off the Fall 2008 lows. ... and looking for a last 'v' of 5 of B. My gold target is $1,300ish.


da bear

Steven_737

Targets NQ for partial exits
1857
1051
1047
1042

Not a trading recommendation;
just my take.

Roger D

If she heads down here look for a move down to 10150 and lower. This market better rally or it will accelerate lower.

Roger D.

Steven_737

second targets reached; :):)

stops at breakeven
divergence near 3rd target is good signal to exit the runner

not a trading recommendation;

QUESTION
what is your method for the runner trade management ?

:):)

Steven_737

pull stops in, to the high of previous bar

Steven_737

looks like an ending diagonal is in order;

keep lowering the stops

Steven_737

puling ES stop at 1090

NQ stop at 1852

Steven_737

preparing to exit upon achieving a lower low
ES<1088
NQ<1849

or be stopped out

Steven_737

I threw the towel in
exited at
NQ 1851
ES 1089.5

Mr. Panic

$vix gap filled from May 14. Just loaded up on more inverse ETFS.
McClellan Summation Index now looks like it has enough ammo to reach my cycle low dates. Today was a more obscure trading day cycle that had been working as a cycle low.
Exhaustion in the market.

upstart

Easy, Roger D. Not quite time to go down again yet.

Roger D

Maybe not but it looks like it's goi8ng to break down into the close, we will see.

RD

Chabazite

Wave Rust - 'tell BP to not B.S. people' Is there evidence that BP HAVE been B.S'ing the American people? They may have underestimated the scale of the problem and the difficulty in solving it, but that surely is not the same as deliberately misleading the people. Given the seriousness of the situation I would have thought that trying to B.S the people would almost certainly backfire and be the last thing they would try to do.

Mamma Boom Boom

>Maybe not but it looks like it's goi8ng to break down into the close, we will see.
RD<

Your probably going to get your butt kicked, on the open tomorrow.

Roger D

Mamma,

I think not pal!

RD

Roger D

The pattern looks to be in a minute 3 here. The futures might bounce a little but tomorrow should be down.

Overal a bearish day and maybe the start of a major decline.

Cheers, and still short.

Roger D.

dom

Mamma;

Could you spank my butt on the open; I've been a naughty boy

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