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« Weekend Bits | Main | Beware Extrapolating from One Data Point »

Sunday, July 25, 2010

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Trader 123

1114 SPX.
And we now have two consecutive closes back ABOVE the 200 day MA.

Christopher B. Featherlocken

"One thing that is certain, either the bears, or the bulls will look like complete idiots in the near future."

Thanks for that provocative, insightful gem. Have you thought about writing your own version of Ecclesiastes?

molecool

"start with alternating 20 year cycles and that's about all you need."

Actually 19 is a better number - go check it out.

Mamma Boom Boom

>And we now have two consecutive closes back ABOVE the 200 day MA.<

Better than that, it's a 50% retracement.

Trader 123

"One thing that is certain, either the bears, or the bulls will look like complete idiots in the near future.

Maybe the best thing to do is load up on way out of the money LEAPS going both long and short?" - MHD

Actually, the one thing that is for CERTAIN is that you have no idea what you are doing. Do yourself a favor and stay away from the stockmarket. Your posts here have clearly shown a most clueless propensity.

Roger's Dad

Can't wait for Prechter's STU today.
I'm sure Hochberg has it all figured out.
My son sure does!
:)

Mamma Boom Boom

Roger's Dad, is your son all right. I'm worried about him. Usually, about this time of day, he runs out and tells us to sell everything, that the crash starts tomorrow, that everything is going to implode into a shit bucket. He tells us how it's all related to the euro, then he leaves a chart with some chicken-scratching on it.

Then a handful of retards run out and tell us how your son is actually a genius and that he just had one bad day. And we all feel threatened, and remorseful.

Then JT runs out and tells him he's an idiot and tells him exactly what the market did today. (he thinks everyone here has had their eye balls removed)

Then, let's see, what happens after that? I can't remember, it all getting like a fog and running together. I'm starting to feel light headed.

Bird

Mamma, I wish you were a 19 year old girl.

Chris

Oh, so the Dow goes up 100 points and suddenly Roger is an idiot? I've got news for you, he's right far more often than that. And there is absolutely NO REASON why stocks won't crash tomorrow.

Stick it in your ear, Rogerbashers.

da bear

Arch Crawford's window is from July 30th to the first several days of August so we are not there yet.
And, yelnick's turn date is August 6th.
I am still following the "Big Tease" model and it seems as if this final wave 'e' is in its final run-up. So we could see a top by this week or next...

If this wave 'e' is 1.62 times the length of wave 'c' (the run-up from 9,800 to 10,592) then it projects a top around 10,883.

An Elliott Wave channel from the 9,600 low earlier this month also projects a high around 10,800ish.

Since this wave 2 rally started my target has been 10,666. That target would also fulfill a completion of wave 'e'.

If the August issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast comes out on Friday then should we just stick to the alternate count and call it a day?

da bear

Nieson Ratings

"Oh, so the Dow goes up 100 points and suddenly Roger is an idiot? I've got news for you, he's right far more often than that. And there is absolutely NO REASON why stocks won't crash tomorrow.

Stick it in your ear, Rogerbashers." - Chris

With all due respect, you must have fallen off the "turnip" truck recently. Roger has been MEGA bearish and calling for a CRASH for months . . .

Get a clue.

Jake

EWI says tonight: "...the larger bear-market trend remains in force."

Yeah....prices sure have been looking bearish the last couple of weeks.

LOL!

Jake

"If the August issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast comes out on Friday then should we just stick to the alternate count and call it a day?" - da Bear

I'd say we should stick (yet another alternate count from EWI) where the sun don't shine!

Concerned

Is Roger ok? I hope he hasn't done anything drastic. It must be depressing to be so wrong day after day.

DG

Is Roger ok? I hope he hasn't done anything drastic. It must be depressing to be so wrong day after day.

I'm sure he's over on one of the other e-wave blogs with the other "wave iii of 3" idiots talking about how he's right and the market is wrong.

If he's depressed, he's got no one to blame but himself.

Dsquare

Well I like the possibility of a combination down from the 1200 area. Flat-x- to 1105 and then either an expanding or neutral triangle. So would be in d of the triangle. Shouldn't see much more than 1131 which was the b wave of the triangle. We are a the 200 day moving average so could reverse anytime if the count is right.

MT

http://i366.photobucket.com/albums/oo106/mtcharts/Indu.jpg

Wave Rust

is it becoming bearish because Roger, the resident perma-bear is hospitalized with self-inflicted wounds?

i think so. probably need a pullback late today and tomorrow to get him back on form.

wave rust

Wave Rust

MT,
nice

implies spx 1250+

wave rust

Mamma Boom Boom

Wavey Gravey, this is actually a good spot for a pullback.

Wave Rust

molecool,

19 years is too exact. cycles are supposed to be fluctuate in length from low to low. if they were exact, there would be no need for institutes studying nebulous numbing numerology. :-)

armstrong rightly focused on another nebulous inexact data set, the economy, as opposed to using precise market data.

very hard to trade nebulous data, imo.

the 20 year is really a half phase of the 38 to 40 cycle. the 20's alternate in nature ,,,, but both get similar hyper sentiment at the lows.

when working with derived or perhaps contrived data from over 100 years, a 20 year cyclist has to admit that there are only 5 good data points. That means that the statistical anomaly cannot be eliminated, nor can any coincidence, and so on.

so 19 or 20 years is still too exact to be useful without generalizing from point to point.

both make good fodder for a chat though. and yes, I do see the 19'er as having potential but no reliability yet for anything but long term investing ,,, not trading.

i think prechter tried to expand cyclical stuff and fold it into EW. Huge mistake, but that is monday morning QB'ing the last 20 years. I might have tried the same thing if I was surrounded by sycophants too. That's why i only attend to his original work with A.J. and a bit of Neely's internal structure guidelines.

The elliott wave principle book discusses a principle not a theory, imo. i think elliot and gann were all too aware of how risky relying on cycles was. both look for more precision in their analysis. Neely went too far into precision on EW and fell into the swamp of complexity ("there must be a pony in this pile of horse pucky").

in the EW principle book, Frost and prechter mention Elliott's undiscussed A-B formation the he found at the end of significant moves. I see this as a curiosity that is often a "2-wave of confusion". I see it on intraday charts more often than daily charts.

anyway, thats just my opinion on cycles.

wave rust


Wave Rust

i kant beleev i rode this en a post abuv.

"who were unelected or one reelection."

wave rust

twitter.com/DrBubb

Arch Crawford nails the biggest crash ever!
I mean... no. Doesn't seem to be happening.
Makes me wonder if this celestial planetary stuff is helpful.

If it crashes from a high now, over August, I think he can claim a bullseye.

Retro Jordans

If life is a quilt, then love should be a thread.

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