Australia is the Most Overvalued

The Economist looked at housing bubbles worldwide and found Australia the most overvalued. The basis for the conclusion is price-to-rent. 

Prices rose in Oz 20% in the year ended in Q1, faster than the prior clip of 13.5%. The RBA has been raising rates, in part to stem the frothy housing market. 

Sometimes when the central bank raises, it pops the bubble. We saw that in 1929, 2000 and 2007. 

Recent anecdotal data has led observers to say the housing bubble is bursting in the Lucky Country. 

Mish reports on similar stories in other frothy countries in this report. 

Comments

[Roger D.]

The housing bubbles are going to go bust,very quickly.

Except for Yelnick and a few others, it's just too boring around here without a "real" bear.

Grab hold here comes the super "A" down.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/bec572b7-deff-4e83-8a1f-a52f39d4d23b

[Roger D.]

Last one,but IBM seems appropriate since it kicks off 3 of 3.

Roger D.

http://content.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/668f5bf0-7352-4644-a743-1784b0d88736/2010-07-17_1640.png

[DG]

Last one,but IBM seems appropriate since it kicks off 3 of 3.

Wrong. In your "wave-E", wave-A can't last over a year and then B and C combined last only a few months. Wrong time relationship between waves.

In all 3-wave corrections (Zigzags and Flats), wave B MUST take at least 100% of the time of wave A and will typically take more time than that.

Not only that, but given that wave-B hardly retraced any of wave-A, to then have wave-C not make a new high contradicts the strength shown by the minimal size of wave-B. In any Zigzag, the amount wave-B retraces of wave-A foreshadows the relationship between the size of wave-A and wave-C.

Not only that, but in any Zigzag, wave-C MUST advance at least 1 tick beyond the price extreme of wave-A, even if it later ends at a lower low.

And that's just one wave structure with 3 major rule violations.

[Roger D.]

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/66b3cd91-6697-430a-99f8-d60a5ef896e6

Roger D.

[Roger D.]

DG,

Get a clue,nobody gives a shit anymore,your'e irrelevent even more than I am.

[DG]

DG,

Get a clue,nobody gives a shit anymore,your'e irrelevent even more than I am.

See that hit counter on the left hand side of the screen? Eyeballing it, I see that this blog has gotten about 500K hits over the past year or so.

I don't point out the flaws in your wave counts for you, I point them out for the other people who hit this site looking for information on Elliott Wave and to keep my ability to recognized flawed wave counts sharp.

You have nothing to do with either motivation. You're just providing me with material.

[fred]

I hope it does fall but I won't hold my breath. Many predictors have failed previously, hoisted with their own petard ie Steve Keen. Disclosure - I am cashed up looking to purchase.

[Christian]

Most of the time, the hardest trade is the best trade. Its a lot harder to be long today than being short.

[yelnick]

Fred, if you are house hunting, have you seen the recent drop in prices in SYD and MEL?

[adg]

let's crash, DJIA -5000

[Roger D.]

The Euro makes top? If so will be extremely bearish for stocks.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/25ac986e-a5c7-4abf-836f-b182e8a4556c

[vipul garg]

Most of the time, the hardest trade, is not to take a trade.

Mamma boom boom, i hope you have not had too many long entries since you were looking for them.
but if one desires to be long, a potentially lower risk, closer stop loss entry is close by.

[Roger D.]

The Dow

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/c3cb3737-e201-4ec8-8354-c253f9f7744c

[Roger D.]

The DJR, bullish sentiment is extreme here.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/79be87bb-db2b-43aa-817b-1102c625bbc4

[Michael]

"Get a clue,nobody gives a shit anymore,your'e irrelevent even more than I am."

Roger,

I can't think of anyone on this blog that is more IRRELEVANT than you my friend. In fact, not only are you unable to engage in a simple conversation with DG about the relationships of time and length between waves, but you are unable to spell the word IRRELEVANT correctly.

Seriously, you and your "Boy Who Cries Wolf" posts on a daily basis with absolutely ZERO understanding of even the most basic tenents of wave theory is quite telling. You have no idea what you are doing, you have no "methodology" whatsoever that is the basis for your calls, and the only reason you keep posting is because you like seeing yourself on the Internet.

[Roger D.]

MCD

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/b4647531-c0b6-4158-8b5f-025e2e9453ae

[Roger D.]

Like a said Michael,you,DG,trader123,JT,and Mamma,need to learn how to read a chart correctly.

Roger D.

You guys try and intimidate me,bull your just a bunch of bullies.

[-Anikitos]

1074

[Mamma Boom Boom]

vipul garg, my views are widely known. I've even been calling the short term turns. It's all on the record, go check it out.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Roger D. Jackson, I'm happy you came back, your so entertaining.

[vipul garg]

widely known????
am i missing something here

i only seem to recall you looking to buy 1100 odd.

[Roger D.]

Like I said Mamma your a good sport. Your not a true bully just a bull.

p.s. Got your dog trained correctly to pee yet. Yikes...

Roger D.

[Roger D.]

Btw Mamma todays probably your last day to get out.

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/642f7dc1-9333-459b-9466-7ef10f41b8b5

Roger D.

[Grammar Guy]

Roger, I enjoy your posts but would enjoy them even more if you used apostrophes.

For example: "You're" is short for "you are"
"Today's" means "today is."

Good luck trading.

[Fred]

Bob Prechter theme song!!!

Watch ->
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XTwWqzKeXc

[Michael]

I'm not a bully Roger, just a realist.
Where's The CRASH bro???
LOL!

[Michael]

I'm not a bully Roger, just a realist.
Where's The CRASH bro???
LOL!

[upstart]

Could today's rally be "c" of an expanded flat?

[Michael]

Hey Roger,

If the market is in such a BEARISH wave position according to you and the Economy is in a deflationary trend . . . then why did stocks like ACI, ANR, CNX, CLF, FCX, MEE, JOYG, WLT, and X not only hold the early July low and the late-May lows today, but ALSO TAKE OUT THE HIGHS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS and challenge the highs of last Monday/Tuesday?

This should not be happening in a Wave 3 according to you and your BEARISH friends.

But it is.

[Roger D.]

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/e8e79ca8-f03a-4265-af20-3e695c3a0d99

Either tomorrow we fall out of bed or we go up to 1100 and then start down again. Both options are bearish,the extreme bullish sentiment here is dangerous.

Roger D.

[Waver]

"Could today's rally be "c" of an expanded flat?" - upstart

Hard to label it as a "C" of an expanded flat when the "a" portion has already retraced more than .618 don't ya think?

[Waver]

"Either tomorrow we fall out of bed or we go up to 1100 and then start down again. Both options are bearish,the extreme bullish sentiment here is dangerous." - Roger D.

And what happens if this alleged Wave (ii) inside of a (2) retraces more than just to 1100 SPX? What count will you then be changing to?

[DG]

Like a said Michael,you,DG,trader123,JT,and Mamma,need to learn how to read a chart correctly.

You keep on saying this, but the calls you make show that YOU are the one that can't read a chart. How many months in a row will you have to be wrong before you admit you don't know what you're doing?

Relevant to my post last night, what are YOUR rules for the time relationship between wave-A and wave-B? How do they vary by wave pattern, i.e. are Zigzags different from Flats and Triangles? Why are Neely's rules regarding the time relationship wrong and yours right? Basically, on what fucking basis do you make any of your inflated claims of superior trading knowledge?

Time to start putting some meat on the bones of your claims. You can't just keep saying over and over how great you are with NOTHING but a series of FAILED market calls as backup. Keep whatever you want as your "proprietary" method, but if you're going to be insulting people (and I have tried to share my knowledge with you in earlier days, but you are so pig-headed I just said fuck it and now just limit my posts to debunking your crap so no one falls prey to your absolutely unfounded certainty), you need to have some basis for your claims.

Since you showed up at the beginning of the year, I'm up 15.3% per 1% of risk I take. What is the comparable metric for your trading P&L? That is a BASIC metric, so don't tell me you don't know.

Btw Mamma todays probably your last day to get out.

Yeah, until the next "last day to get out".

[Roger D.]

The ES

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/ff5422f7-5b64-4d44-859a-4d1efcb51e9d

[fred]

Yelnick,

Auction is a large portion of how properties sell in SYD. SYD clearance rates are about 55% which is poor. It is winter and a bad time to sell.

Historically SYD prices goes sideways after a run until demand starts again. In the late 80's early 90's there was a bubble of sorts and prices did retreat with 19% interest rates but soon we were rising again. A smaller effect was felt with the GFC but lower interest rates soon saw the run continue.

At this stage no real softness seen. I have only just started to look but with 6.5% mortgage rates, it is not putting any brakes on the market. Rates need to rise 2 percentage points to put enough pressure on the market.

Legislation is directed to owning property.
Your own home is capital gains tax free so people keep trading up then trade down on retirement to release funds for such.
Investment properties have significant tax deductible benefits against income.
Retirement accounts can borrow and invest in direct property.

Historically SYD prices grow at 7% p.a. There is great price variance in SYD which is huge in terms of area covered.

[Roger D.]

"Either tomorrow we fall out of bed or we go up to 1100 and then start down again. Both options are bearish,the extreme bullish sentiment here is dangerous." - Roger D.

"And what happens if this alleged Wave (ii) inside of a (2) retraces more than just to 1100 SPX? What count will you then be changing to?"
waver

Looks like somebody doesn't have to change their count. I take by your use of the term "alleged" you didn't have the right count. Yea that's right.

Roger D.