Australia Real Estate Forecast Confusion

ZH posted this report on Australian real estate, which picks up on a theme of mine, that the Lucky Country has taken on too much debt, and is about to have their housing bubble burst. The conventional wisdom in Oz is that the housing wonderland will continue to rise. My on-the-ground contacts forwarded to me a comment by the chief economist of business forecaster BIS Shrapnel, who just said that the cooling off of the rest of the world did Australia a big favor by crimping risks. He expects a 30% rise over the next three years. What is curious about his analysis is he also expects interest rates to rise 2% and sees mortgage rates above 9% - not exactly the climate for a robust housing market. Indeed, that is usually the formula for bursting a bubble.  

My on-the-ground guy says he is simply confused over the conflicting analyses. 

The Broyhill Letter (Q2-10)

Comments

[Bird]

I just completed an analysis of NEM on the monthly scale and think a long term (months if not years) top may be in place with the high earlier this month.

If this is so (prediction is very difficult, except for Mamma), what are the implications? NEM is interesting because it is both a gold play and a stock play. Gold may go up in a economic panic or crash, but this says NEM will go down. But if the market is strong, NEM might also go up as a stock play.

How does a weak NEM fit either an equity bull or bear playbook?

[-Anikitos]

look at FSLR - 2 month long raising wedge. might be coming to a peak.

[Michael]

Ground breaking news out on EXAS.
:)

[Trader 123]

So much for DEFLATION.
Copper at 11-week HIGHS!

[Trader 123]

Also, Domestic round-trip coast to coast airfares are now back to the second highest level since early 2001, and are off jst 8.3% from 2008 (pre-credit crisis) levels.

Looks like the Airlines have some pricing power... Not what one would be expecting if the Economy was as WEAK as some here claim it to be.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Bird, my indicators have gold stocks in a down trend, but a weak one. Long term, I don't know, my stuff only goes out a few months. But, fundamentally, gold will explode some day. Unless governments outlaw private ownership, which is highly likely.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

This correction could stop right here. Of course, it could go all the way back to 1065, too. Oh what a hand wringer!

[Les]

This isn't a correction. It would take more to flip the daily down. At best, it's setting up for a sell if the next rally fails and takes out 1100.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>This isn't a correction. It would take more to flip the daily down.<

Just what we need, some nin cum poop that don't know his hot rod from a hail mary.

[Waver]

This is simply a 4th wave of the "C" and its doing a double "zig-xag".

Prechter doesn't believe in such a pattern and has gone on to correct RN Elliott on this in Prechter's book, but I think that Bob is wrong about this pattern not occuring in the markets.

I've seen it numerous times.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Waver, if you think it's a 'C', then what's your longer term prediction?

[Les]

Definitely not a correction. You might want to take your shades off next time. The market has more work to do to confirm your prematurely bearish view.

[home for sale]

Real estate market in Australia is one of the most fastest growing business there, no wonder the rise is like that but that only an estimation.

[RamonGustav]

Hi I liked your note, add your site to your bookmarks.