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« Death Cross Approacheth | Main | Double Dip Countdown: "7" UPDATED »

Thursday, July 01, 2010


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da bear

here is what I posted yesterday:

Mickey D.,

yeah, this could be a biggie bad bear market. Like Millennial Wave 4 instead of Grand Super Cycle Wave 4.

Well, let's just go with the Financial Forecast alternate count tomorrow and call it a day.

da bear

P.S. An 'e' of 2 up starting tomorrow would fool everyone, but the count would look totally screwed up. But the flip side is that the start of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 down would be the 'F' wave. lol

i think the market can rally higher if DOW 9,500 holds. If Gold $1,200 holds.
The alternate count is showing the 10,592 high as wave C so this current wave lower is wave 'd'. Wave 'e' up to follow. but DOW 9,500 needs to hold, along with that $1,200 in gold. For this to be 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 down the downside action isn't as severe as it should be.

Also, the DOW rallied from July 4th 1930 into Labor Day before the market collapsed again.

Yesterday, with everything down, the dollar was lower too. Not a good sign for the buck. Stocks were down but they did not collapse. That is bullish sorta.

Gold $1,300 and DOW 10,666 is still possible.

Let's see what happens on Tuesday.

Once again, the alternate count on page 2 looks to be correct. Instead of the wave 2 high it instead wave c of 2. So 'd' down is here. ... basically it is what I was calling for.

Also, they changed the 'flash crash' to the wave 3. the snap back was the wave 4. That is my count. Dunno when they changed theirs, but I guess they did. I explained about the '3' down earlier. If you want a rehash I will post my own Report tomorrow on my message board.

da bear

Roger D.

Looks like a double x in the SPX and a wave 2 in the transports. Will it stay up into the close??

Roger D.

The pen-ultimate bull trap.

da bear

how about an 'F' wave this fall? lol

da bear

da bear

In 1930 the stock market made a secondary high in the spring then went sluggish and sold off into July 4th.
The market then staged a rally into Labor Day.
That could happen here. An 'e' of 2 rally. The alternate count from EWI would prove correct yet again.
I am looking at gold and it appears to have dodged a big bullet -- if $1,200 holds.
Here is a link to the chart of gold from the $1,040 low in February. I think that that was the wave 4 of B low. Since then we have been in wave 5 of B off the Fall 2008 lows. Wave ii low in March then the wave iii of 5 rally into May (new nominal highs), then the a of iv low at $1,170ish, a 'b' of iv rally into a double top then the 'c' of iv to $1,200. The current v of 5 will go to around $1,300. $1,170ish needs to hold. A v of 5 of B high would take silver up too.

da bear

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Where there is life, there is hope. I feel strongly that I can make it.

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