Double Dip Countdown: "7" UPDATED

We continue to count down to the double dip: 10 - 9 - 8 - 7.  The unemployment report today shows that the slowdown is accelerating. Jobs dropped 125k, and because the workforce fell faster by 652k the unemployment rate actually improved to 9.5% (see chart).

 

Taking out the census workers, we actually increased by 100k, but a tell of the poor state of the economy is that temp workers only increased by 20k, the smallest in a while. Temp workers typically lead permanent hiring by four months. Not happening. While the numbers fall within expectations, Goldman's take is "much weaker than headlines suggest." You can see how after steady improvement during the Hope Rally, we have now had a fairly large drop to negative in one month:

 

The BLS runs a separate Household survey, which tends to be more volatile (larger swings) but has been more positive for the past six months than the widely-repported Establishment survey. It also tends to be a better leading indicator. For June, it too disappointed, with a 322k drop. The normally optimistic Califia Beach Pundit is morose in interpreting the next chart: 

Looking at the trend in both, using Dec. '09 as the low, the two surveys show a total of between 600K (establishment) and 1 million (household) jobs have been created in the private sector this year. The truth probably lies somewhere in between; jobs probably are up this year at an annualized pace of about 1.5%, and that's not very impressive. In good times, jobs rise 2-3% per year.

 

UPDATE: a recurring issue with the BLS numbers is their birth/death model (of companies, not employees!) which may be misleading during this period because it is based on models from the Great Moderation. Mish in particular has been harping on how the B/D model can be distorting matters. Today Jesse's Café Américain comments on the B/D model, noting how it created 146k imaginary jobs. Jesse also has calculated he seasonal adjustments used by the BLS, and finds them surprisingly small and hence not distortive (note: I think that is fair except during this last holiday sales season, where the adjustments expected too many temp workers and so was depressed leading into Xmas and optimistic leaving it).  Jesse comes up with a look at the seasonally-adjusted unemployment numbers without the birth-death model, and finds things are much worse than the BLS would lead us to believe:

One *might* conclude that without the temporary Census jobs and the Imaginary Jobs from non-existent small businesses consisting largely of unemployed people turned consultant, there has been no recovery in net job creation.

 

One way to parse through the data and get passed these imaginary jobs and other adjustments is to look at total employment. Using BLS data from May and June, we have now lost 652K plus 386k people seeking work, or closing in on 1M in fewer in the workforce in just two months, a huge plunge. These people didn't die or retire; they gave up looking. Perhaps many are at the aged end of the workforce, nearing retirement, but what about new college grads? Roughly 6m grads in 2010 (college and high school), a significant group of which should have entered the workforce. Instead, teenage jobs added in June is the lowest since 1951. Ouch. This chart from CalculatedRisk shows how we are bouncing along the bottom of employment:

 

In addition, total workforce is dropping again after a brief bend up:

 

No surprise that the weekly ECRI indicators continue to drop, now down to -7.7%. At this pace (a percent a week) it will confirm a coming double dip in three weeks, when we get below -10%. 
 

 
Most telling is that factory orders fell more than expected, showing the recovery is withering on the vine. Manufacturing had been a bright spot, but orders just dropped the most since March 2009, and manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace this year. With housing in the biggest drop ever, autos slowing, stimulus ebbing and inventories back in balance, what is left to drive growth? Europe is tanking and China is slowing, so no help from exports. 

While all the indicators are showing slowdown, not a dip to negative, their trend down says we will soon dip. Projecting this out shows skimming the treetops in Q4 and a dip in Q1. 

Comments

[Roger D.]

If we just witnessed a bull trap,that has got to be the best one ever.

and it was,I think the Euro has topped. Monday should be the start of a very ugly week.

Roger D

[Roger D.]

I meant Tuesday,everybody have a happy and safe 4th of July.

Roger D.

[JT]

It's amazing how Corporate America is in the best shape ever, with tons of cash on their balance sheets. And yet they have absolutely no interest in building any inventory whatsoever, or hiring. Kind of like the Banks being made "flush" with all of the TARP money, but having no interest whatsoever in doing any lending; with the result being a huge drop in the velocity of the money supply.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Starting next week with 'Big Moe' looking up.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Remember last week when I told you to look out for an air pocket in gold? Are you paying attention?

[Michael]

NRP holding up very well in this market. Still long 4,000 shares from $21.00 purchased in late May. Yielding almost 9% too!

[Mamma Boom Boom]

I have an indicator that is, now, giving the same reading as Sept. 08. It would take a 'crash' to get it lower. Do you think that's possible?

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Correction, make that '2'.

[usdollar]

Mamma is that swedish by any chance, hej??? It looks pretty ugly for the dollar as well, which to me would indicate foreign driven event in Nov.

[usdollar]

Where did you find that picture:), the woman on the pic is not Swedish.

[usdollar]

My parents is down in ft. Myers, the wrong side of the oil spill.

[Roger D.]

The big picture.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/39461771-d088-4bb5-926e-208e4d024fe1

[JT]

Are you really serious Roger???

Who gives a flying crap about MCD and why would any TRADER actually think that McDonald's and its piddly 5% sell-off from the highs is a proxy for the "Big Picture"?

You are so sadly mistaken that it's amazing that some people here actually take you seriously.

[Chartist]

Have a bad day JT????

I would expect most bulls to be upset...hope your hedged for next week.

Best of luck,

Roger D.

[Holier than thou]

"...it's amazing that some people here actually take you seriously.

Posted by: JT | Friday, July 02, 2010 at 03:55 PM"

Huh? Who takes Roger serioualy? Anyone? Anyone?

He's our very own resident Prickter in-training, Although he still has a ways to go.

Prechter can get it wrong for decades at a stretch. Our little resident Prickter got the start of his "catastrophic decline" in about 6 months (maybe).

[Luv that lives not dies]

ok the s&p topped right at 62% retrace also right at the 2000-2007 nackline of a massive double top .....who got that right.Who among you that's right don't hold back...speak up.Who has called the downtrend not you ?
We've fallen 200 points in the Spx oh that's no fall....
who got that right.....Neely was stopped out of his longs which he put on June 25th.So if he is held in such esteem
why not Roger.....oh that's right your a bunch of hypocrites.....Sorry shameful people here.

[MARK HOLSCHER]

THE ODDS OF A DROP IN THE MARKETS, AS THE TRUTH INCREASES, AS THE TRUTH, IN DIRECT PROPORTION, TO WHICH THE LIE TRYS TO PROVE THE TRUTH WRONG. IN OTHER WORDS WHEN THE LIE ARGUES TO THE TRUTH. THE TRUTH CASTS THE LIE OUT OF THE KINGDOM. HOW? THE LIE DELUTED IN THERE MINDS WILL ACTUALLY DISTROY THEMSELVES! THE MARKET DROP IS PROVED ACCURATE
http://knol.google.com/k/mark-holscher/market-timing-iii/13nmdnwfdknux/203#

[Holier than thou]

THE ODDS OF A DROP IN THE MARKETS, AS THE TRUTH INCREASES, AS THE TRUTH, IN DIRECT PROPORTION, TO WHICH THE LIE TRYS TO PROVE THE TRUTH WRONG. IN OTHER WORDS WHEN THE LIE ARGUES TO THE TRUTH. THE TRUTH CASTS THE LIE OUT OF THE KINGDOM. HOW? THE LIE DELUTED IN THERE MINDS WILL ACTUALLY DISTROY THEMSELVES! THE MARKET DROP IS PROVED ACCURATE
http://knol.google.com/k/mark-holscher/market-timing-iii/13nmdnwfdknux/203#

Posted by: MARK HORSESHIT | Friday, July 02, 2010 at 09:09 PM

Haleluyah brother! Haleluyah!

Reverend Horseshit has spoken! AYYMENN!

PRAISE THE LORD!!!

[Holier than thou]

".....oh that's right your a bunch of hypocrites.....Sorry shameful people here.

Posted by: Luv that lives not dies | Friday, July 02, 2010 at 09:01 PM"

Hey "Brother Luv", two things:

1. It's not "your a bunch of hypocrites..."

rather: "you're (you are) a bunch of hypocrites..."

2. Did Roger correctly predict:

His adamant January crash? NO.
Did he get his February crash? NO
How abour his March crash? NO
Maybe he did better in April? Sorry.
How about May? Whoops....

If he put his meager funds where his big mouth and useless charts are since January, he's still underwater. And you know I'll bet my left nut he's gonna fuck it up in July also. The puke bag thinks he's riding a third wave down. You and he and Mr. Horseshit are the 3 stooges of trading separated (or maybe not) at birth. The only one better than all 3 of you put together is the Goon from Gainseville who can get it wrong as a matter of course for years if not decades at a stretch.

I can see you 3 jokers shacking up at the nearest homeless shelter before the year is out. Maybe Boom Boom will be kind enough to give you a titty flash or something but that'll be the best you'll get.

[Madhu Shah]

Why such harsh language? Everybody is entitled to their own opinions on what is happening in the bigger picture? At least, some of these people, like Roger D has the nerve and boldness to say a few words (that could or could not benefit others) and people like "Holier than thou" using such foul words and language prove that the only thing coming from their minds and mouths is pure garbage!!!

Come on, this site gets interesting when people exchange ideas and theories!! Why can't "Holier than thou" offer some words of wisdom instead of what he/she has written? After all, we are all adults capable of making up our own minds as to what we want to do with our money, our own research - surely, no one follows any advisor blindly?

[Madhu Shah]

PS. I am of the belief that the markets are in a slow crash mode and the intensity is only going to get worse during the course of July and August. Of course, there will be rallies from time to time but the world is going to be a different place soon and in the next 2-3 years, it is going to change life for everybody.

[Roger D.]

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/0b098c2d-b949-4940-bf3c-c17596b3ca42

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/160ba3f3-61ae-4688-87fd-fd121e81777f

[Wave Rust]

5 year yield has retraced 50% of the rally from Dec. '08 low to the June '09 high, in an abc. it might get to the 61.8% just to freak the freakable.

momentum divergences in place and enough for a run up for about 30 days ,,,, it'll drag stocks up with it.

the first move is the best move. it's usually a big gap. thursday is ripe for a huge turn.

the 10, 20 and 30 year are set up too. short debt or cash. long stocks or cash

wave rust

[Wave Rust]

months ago, i stated that socialism came to america to die.

others are catching on. keynesian economics = the financial engine of socialist power grabbers.

THE END OF KEYNESIANISM?
3 July 2010 by Guest 16 Comments
Richard Russell certainly thinks so

http://pragcap.com/the-end-of-keynesianism

[Wave Rust]

i forgot to add ,,,,

in my "deep dish oversold pizza" indicator, this as oversold as jan. 29 '09 low, march 6th '09 low, and oct. 10 '08 crash low. (it peaked and rolled over on june 21st intraday).

it should get at least 2 day bounce then retest the low or lower to get the needed momentum divergence.

maybe in 3-5 days, around the spx 980 handle, a buying spree will begin, as rates and stocks get another thrill ride up.

at least, 3 expanding formations are gaming this market sentiment. i just love this stuff.

wave rust

p.s. i'll get worried when roger gets bullish, when DG stops arguing with him. party on guys.

[usdollar]

Roger is right on target, he is a little to bullish for my taste, I am more on da bears side, but on "speed", time wise. After Nov huge drop, the big H&S which take all indexes to zero will be confirmed. Then we could discuss Neely's 100,000 djia target, or what ever h... it is. Prechter is writing in most of his books that the bottom most likely would occur around 2012. His longterm targets are normally very good, it is his short term game that has been his problem to say the least. For his GSC bottom, it should stop in the range of 40-400, normally closer to 40. I believe we are going down in an X,Y, or Z, wave.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/mbutler120299a.html

[Roger D.]

Hey guys it's only a correction.

The Valueline

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/8feb0643-652a-4b25-99f8-8e62e2eba78b

Roger D.

[bob m]

Wave Rust,

That link would not load and so I speak without benefit of reading it, but astute as it might be, it is my belief that this is not about a fair fighting ending up in a change of mindset. I believe this is about control of people.

I imagine a lot of people were walking around the day after Hitler took office saying, "We'll vote the bum out next election." Problem was THERE WAS NO NEXT ELECTION because it was not about running Germany, it was about CONTROLLING Germany for a very foul purpose. Name your crisis, 911, Katrina, Swine Flu, TARP, health care, cyber spying, oil spill - each one was used to restrict our freedom. A few months ago Wood Allen suggested we MAKE Obama a dictator "for a few years" SO THAT he can work without the bothersome Republicans/conservatives slowing him down!! The thought is now out on the table.

Like article here on the profit potential of "green economy". It is not about pollution; it is about redistribution of wealth and control of people. People are continue to play a game in which the rules are being changed behind the scenes. By the time that fact is realized, it will be too late. In all likelihood, it already is.

[Roger D.]

usdollar,

If big wave "C" in the $VLE is 1.5x the length of "B" that would be a bottom around 150. If you use 1.618 then that puts it at -50. Is that bearish enough??? lol.

Roger D.

[nspolar]

What they are saying in the UK today:

US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus

" "You truly cannot make this stuff up. The US governnment is freaked out about the prospect of a double-dip," he said."

Where is Keynes?

Yelnick you need to add an M3 historical graph to your update. Thanks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html

ns

[Roger D.]

usdollar,

Oh and btw, If we are in "C" down in the Vaueline are we actualy in A down(which is always a "crash" wave at this degree. With a B up and then a long grinding C down. Much like the Nikkei chart after their great bubble.

Roger D.

[Roger D.]

I'll just say that, the Valueline count is probably the forecast down,I know some will say it's crazy,but get out of the box. The only wave that looks impulsive is the advance that I have marked "V" the rest is three's. So go ahead and blame Greenspan,Bernanke, and our fiat system. I expect this "A" wave down will be a classic "crash" wave,with a "B" wave up and then a long "C" down. Will the "A" break the S&P neckline? I don't know, but hang on because these primary "A's" are fast and furious.

Roger D.

[Roger D.]

I add one more note,not Prechter,Neely,Deneric,Columbia,ect,has this count. Just little ole Roger D.,remember that.

Roger D.

[JT]

"Come on, this site gets interesting when people exchange ideas and theories!!" - Madhu Shah

I don't believe that Roger has ever espoused any prediction that is genuinely based in accurate Elliott Wave Theory. He seems to have a fundamental BEARISH view of the US financial markets, and "fits" his charts accordingly.

DG is right. Roger's been crying "Wolf" for the last 6 months and if he had any real "skin" in the game he would have blown out his account months ago!

[JT]

"However, Mr Ashworth warned against a mechanical interpretation of money supply figures. "You could argue that M3 has been going down because people have been taking their money out of accounts to buy stocks, property and other assets," he said."

[Roger D.]

"Mr Bernanke built his academic reputation on the study of the credit mechanism. This model offers a radically different theory for how the financial system works. While so-called "creditism" has become the new orthodoxy in US central banking, it has not yet been tested over time and may yet prove to be a misadventure.

Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics said the decline in M3 is worrying and points to a growing risk of deflation. "Core inflation is already the lowest since 1966, so we don’t have much margin for error here. Deflation becomes a threat if it goes on long enough to become entrenched," he said."

First of all, This experiment of Greenspans and Bernanke's has produced one thing only, "bubbles". Bubbles always burst, and we are entering the real "bear market" now.

The kind of economic reality where people raise cash because they need to. Not for buying stocks or property. Almost all don't remember the last primary bear market when the Dow bottomed at 574 and a NYSE seat sold for 15,000 dollars.

This will be a eye-opener for the unintiated.

Roger D.

p.s. JT,DG etal your looking at the trees and not the forrest. Your worried about smacking a tree,but there's smoke over the ridge and the wind is picking up.

You just don't see it. Most don't,don't feel bad.

[Wave Rust]

bob m,

"That link would not load and so I speak without benefit of reading it, but astute as it might be,"

it loads for me. try this www.pragcap.com russell is the lead article.

"it is my belief that this is not about a fair fighting ending up in a change of mindset. I believe this is about control of people."

yes indeed. the puppeteers have their puppet, obama, doing exactly what they want.

jihadists of all sorts learn to hate everything. this is not a religious jihad on democracy. but it is driven with many divisions ,,,, rich vs. poor, black vs. white, east vs. west muslim vs. muslim, tribe vs tribe, christian vs. jew, illegal latinos vs. a system of law. ,,,, whatever regional focus works.

if you secretly create and control the dragon/bogeyman, you can become the hero by volunteering to go 'slay the dragon'.

it's amazing how stupid people get if you feed them "hate" and "blame". most teens and 20-somethings have not read a book unless it was assigned in school. if it ain't video it doesn't exist.

results always in violence. but the reactionaries always lose. like in germany, italy, japan, Russia, china, cuba, viet nam, cambodia, iran, venezuela, half of africa. the power grabbers have a long term plan where players don't matter, themes don't matter. the only thing that mnatters is power and the money that comes with it.

rothschilds game - control the money, control the people and their game.

game, set, match

---------
had to laugh at the message the CIA sent Obama this week, with medvedev here and they out the russian espionage ring. "the russians are not good guys, nor are they our friends. they are the european mafia." damn funny.

wave rust

[tompoole]

when was the last time we had a Double scoop recession

[Roger D.]

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/c09e2efb-6a6e-4874-afe5-14e9c02c1df8

Roger D.

[yelnick]

nspolar, take a look at this: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/06/that-sinking-feeling-m3-falilng-at-1930s-paces.html

[nspolar]

Thanks for the reminder Yelnick.

Hard to keep track of it all these days.

ns

[trendlines]

Last post on the SPX, outlined the price action then as bearish, with stiff resistance at 1100. Since then, the index has not looked back and continued down to break below the crucial 1040 area. Oversold manages to remain oversold, which reeks of bear market behaviour (remember how overbought remained overbought on the way up?).

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-short-term-breakdown-towards-950-960.html

[chuck]

Yelnick,

First , Happy Fourth and I enjoy reading your blog very much.

It appears that your projections for the year are unfolding as you projected back in Jan. The Dollar reached 88 and the S & P looks like it has peaked. How do you see the remainder of the year? Do you think we will get a counter trend rally in July / Aug. with a bottom sometime in 2011 at significantly lower levels.

Thanks again for everything.

Chuck

[Roger D.]

BIDU 30 minute

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/b587cbdb-5e4e-4262-a4b2-897223217ddf

[yelnick]

Chuck, you are being a bit too kind. I was close but no cigar so far on some of my key predictions in this post:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/01/predictions-2010.html

eg a peak in Q1 (came in Q2) or a USD above 90 (got to 88-89 so far)

My next six months view is this:
- summer rally of sorts into early august, then the big fall into sept/oct
- retest of Nov08 bottom but not Mar09 bottom
- rally in first part of 2011 then a fall back down to lower levels

[JT]

"JT,DG etal your looking at the trees and not the forrest. Your worried about smacking a tree, but there's smoke over the ridge and the wind is picking up.

You just don't see it. Most don't,don't feel bad."

Posted by: Roger D. | Saturday, July 03, 2010 at 01:09 PM

The fact that you make the above statement tells me that you are not a TRADER. Trader's only care about the Trees my friend, not the Forest.

:)

[Roger D.]

JT,

When this thing takes off to hades,I hope your short.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/e4b323cb-b6a1-4c5a-99c5-238927692eec

Roger D.

[nspolar]

The Bears gather for a Potlatch, led by Prechter bear.

July 2, 2010

A Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’

By JEFF SOMMER

WITH the stock market lurching again, plenty of investors are nervous, and some are downright bearish. Then there’s Robert Prechter, the market forecaster and social theorist, who is in another league entirely.

Mr. Prechter is convinced that we have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years.

In a series of phone conversations and e-mail exchanges last week, he said that no other forecaster was likely to accept his reasoning, which is based on his version of the Elliott Wave theory — a technical approach to market analysis that he embraces with evangelical fervor.

Originating in the writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott, an obscure accountant who found repetitive patterns, or “fractals,” in the stock market of the 1930s and ’40s, the theory suggests that an epic downswing is under way, Mr. Prechter said. But he argued that even skeptical investors should take his advice seriously.

“I’m saying: ‘Winter is coming. Buy a coat,’ ” he said. “Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I’m wrong, you’re not hurt. If they’re wrong, you’re dead. It’s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while.”

His advice: individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come. (For traders with a fair amount of skill and willingness to embrace risk, he suggests other alternatives, like shorting the market or making bets on volatility.) But ultimately, “the decline will lead to one of the best investment opportunities ever,” he said.

Buy-and-hold stock investors will be devastated in a crash much worse than the declines of 2008 and early 2009 or the worst years of the Great Depression or the Panic of 1873, he predicted.

For a rough parallel, he said, go all the way back to England and the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720, a crash that deterred people “from buying stocks for 100 years,” he said. This time, he said, “If I’m right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now, ‘Don’t touch stocks.’ ”

The Dow, which now stands at 9,686.48, is likely to fall well below 1,000 over perhaps five or six years as a grand market cycle comes to an end, he said. That unraveling, combined with a depression and deflation, will make anyone holding cash “extremely grateful for their prudence.”

Mr. Prechter is hardly the only market hand to advocate prudence now, but nearly everyone else foresees a much rosier future, once current difficulties are past.

For example, Ralph J. Acampora, a market analyst with more than 40 years of experience, said he moved entirely out of stocks and into cash late last month. Now a partner at Alverita, a wealth management firm in New York, he said recent setbacks suggested that the market would drop another 10 or 15 percent, probably until September or October, before resuming another “meaningful rally.”

Over the next several years Mr. Acampora expects an “old normal market,” characterized by relatively short-lived swings that will provide many opportunities for smart investors — one that resembles the markets of the 1960s and 70s. “I’ve lived through it,” he said.

Like Mr. Prechter, he is a past president of the Market Technicians Association, the leading organization of technical market analysts, and he said that his colleague has done “some very good work.” But Mr. Acampora doesn’t agree with Mr. Prechter’s long-term theories, either intellectually or emotionally.

The “mathematics don’t work,” Mr. Acampora said, because such a big decline would imply that individual stocks would need to trade at unrealistically low levels. Furthermore, he said, “I don’t want to agree with him, because if he’s right, we’ve basically got to go to the mountains with a gun and some soup cans, because it’s all over.”

Still, on a “near-term” basis, he said, “We’re probably saying the same thing.”

Similarly, Larry Berman, who co-founded ETF Capital Management in Toronto and recently ended his term as the president of the technicians association, says he sees a “classic” short-term negative market trend developing now. But he doesn’t use the Elliott Wave theory, saying Mr. Prechter is trying to “measure the market in decades, which is too long a time frame for practical trading purposes or for risk management.”

Mr. Prechter, 61, lives in Gainesville, Ga., where he runs Elliott Wave International, a forecasting and publishing firm. He graduated from Yale as a psychology major in 1971, dabbled as a singer, drummer and songwriter in a rock band and became a technical analyst for Merrill Lynch.

He became fascinated by Mr. Elliott’s writings, which suggest that the market moves in predictable if complex patterns. Along with A. J. Frost, Mr. Prechter wrote “Elliott Wave Principle,” a 1978 book that predicted the emergence of a great bull market — a forecast that was largely fulfilled. By 1987, he was widely regarded as an expert in technical analysis. Articles in The New York Times said he was known as “the market’s leading technical guru” — and more. An article in October that year said he had “emerged as both prophet and deity, an adviser whose advice reaches so many investors that he tends to pull the market the way he has predicted it will move.”

He has far less day-to-day influence now, after years spent developing a theory he calls “socionomics,” which holds “social moods” as the cause not only of market cycles but also of economic and political events. A grand cycle is ending, he says, and the time for reckoning is near.

In 2002, he published “Conquer the Crash,” which predicted misery ahead. Even so, he said in 2008 that the market would soon rally sharply — then said late last year that stocks were about to fall and that the great decline would resume.

Since 1980, the advice in his investing newsletters, when converted into a portfolio, has slightly underperformed the overall stock market but has been much less risky, losing money in only one calendar year, according to calculations by The Hulbert Financial Digest. Mr. Prechter said he disagreed with the methodology used in these measurements, but offered none of his own.

For his part, Mr. Acampora says that the Elliott Wave has some validity as an indicator but that “it’s only part of the story” of technical market analysis, which also needs to be buttressed by economic and fundamental research.

Mr. Prechter says his unifying theory, socionomics, is a “young science.”

“We’re quantifying it,” he said. “We’re working on it.” In the meantime, he contends, it has enabled him to “look around the corner” and prepare for a dangerous future.

Copyright 2010 The New York Times Company.

ns

[usdollar]

This stock market is just like the oil vulcano. A lot of plugging and hiding facts is going on, but once that fails, we are talking free fall without any end in sight. Wave 1 is done, and possibly wave 2, or we are in it. It is likely that July 12 will provide an extended wave 5 of C1. Target 8300.

[Luv that lives not dies]

Interesting take on the current market. KD observes that everyone is expecting 1987 so it won't happen. You would never surmise that by the sentiment on this blog.

If we rally here like KD expects then what? Everybody and their aunt & uncle,plus the buss boy will be short.

We will see.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2472-July-4th-Market-Musings-Half-Year-Checkup.html

Roger D.