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« Australian Real Estate Bubble Bursting? | Main | Canadian Real Estate Imploding? »

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

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Account Deleted

Dow Jones futures hourly chart trading in a raising channel
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/07/dow-futures-recovery-with-positive.html

Mamma Boom Boom

>Starting next week with 'Big Moe' looking up.

Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Friday, July 02, 2010 at 01:26 PM
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Remember last week when I told you to look out for an air pocket in gold? Are you paying attention?

Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Friday, July 02, 2010 at 01:34 PM<
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Happy to see you getting it back together, Mamma!

Hockthefarm

whitebear:

Do you think interest rates in CA had anything to do with the pop in Vancouver RE?

Today, things don't look so good according to this guy(Garth Turner):

Down the road from the Summer Bunker, where the soothing lake pushes up against the picturesque anti-personnel fortifications, two waterfront properties came to market. The nice one was well over $600,000 and the handymaner $450,000.

As the Hummer dust settled in thick clouds on the month-old For Sale sign at the second location, I could make out the “new price” sticker. And indeed there is one – a hundred thousand less. In fact, the spiffy one down the road, on the market about the same time, has just lost twenty thousand of its supposed value.

In my office in the Big Smoke (where there was recently an earthquake, followed by riots and burning cars, then a massive power outage), a colleague mentioned casually he can’t unload his upscale cottage north of the city. How long on the market?, I asked. And he said, “two years.”

Looked at a commercial property two weeks ago on the main street of a GTA-area village my wife mused on buying (she’s now in chains in the basement). The agent called back hours ago and the conversation drifted to a 30% lower price. That listing is three weeks old.

And, breaking news continues to pour in from this toxic blog. Average West Van prices down $90,000 in the past month, as city-wide sales dump. Sales in Calgary gored like a Stampede dogey. Toronto deals crashing 23% while listings jump 28%.

In Vancouver, Blog Dog Jane – now trying to sell her condo – writes: “I did as you and the realtor suggested…reduced my price. In order to be at the lowest price of all comparable condos in my neighborhood, I went from 498K to 439K. That is matching the lowest of the condos, and beating all others. Us sellers are sucking each other’s prices down in bidding war of our own…a race to sell before the buyers go elsewhere or wait any longer. It’s just money, right? How long is it going to take to make that back in those preferreds?!!! The price was dropped this morning and presto – there were 4 requests for showings today. Maybe we’ll get lucky and have a bidding war and recoup a few thousand that we dropped. Maybe we’ll get lucky and simply be able to sell before having to drop the price any more.”

This is asset deflation, coming to a hood near you.

Some people are obviously depressed by this (the sellers) while others think deflation will turn into depression. In fact, a mess of anti-social metalholics who hang out here while the cops reload, cheer at the prospect of financial meltdown. It will be the moment they can hoist their Maple Leafs skyward and think they matter. Then, mugged.

Alas, that moment’s not coming. There’ll be no depression. Just a mounting chance recession will reappear, and a rare opportunity for many Canadians to finally realize it’s not different here, after all.

Now, I say this fully knowing the facts of the situation. For example, a stunning 55% of the entire American labour force has lost a job or suffered a pay cut in the last two years. Our biggest trading partner and customer lost 8 million jobs, and is regaining them at 100,000 a month. At this rate it will be at least 2017 before 2007 employment levels return – ten gruelling years.

A million jobs alone were lost in homebuilding. In Canada and the US, scores of Boomers will never work again. For the first time ever, consumer debt equals 90% of the American economy. Government debt equals another 90%. California is a broke as Greece. And governments everywhere have no choice but to bring in austerity packages or see debt bring them down – in the knowledge spending cuts will just slow things more.

Against this background the stock market has given up its 2010 gains, while the bond market has leapt to life. Basement day traders have been wiped out while scores of equityless new homeowners are staring at an economic tsunami. As I have been saying for some time, what happened to the US middle class is not an aberration, but a lesson. Did anyone learn?

So, yes, there’s plenty of hair on this economy. Things may well get uglier. Asset prices will fall, even as the last busloads of greater fools roll in to snap up ‘bargain’ properties at 5% or 10% less than April’s asking price. But no depression.

The reasons for this are many. Never before has there been coordinated fiscal and monetary policy across all industrialized countries. Protectionism and damaging trade wars, which helped make the Thirties dirty, are mostly over. Global growth is actually positive, with momentum having shifted from over-extended America and debauched Europe to Chindia. The US, as crapped-out and mismanaged as it may be right now, staggering after a credit orgy, is still a country of renewal and innovation. Today no significant government will endure sovereign collapse, and no collection of nations will allow it. After coming to the brink of the abyss in the Winter of 08-09, there is more resolve than ever – more integrated financial engineering, concerted central bank strategy and political capital. You might not agree with globalization, but this time it will save your ass.

Without a doubt, society needs a shower. Too much covetous borrowing. Too much granite. Too many handouts. Too much entitlement. And, until now, too few consequences.

So if you bought a $450,000 new house with 5% down and a 1.5% mortgage; if you saved and invested nothing and spent all you made; if you’re 55 with the bulk of your net worth in one property; if you’re so paralyzed with fear you can no longer discern opportunity, well, yeah, life’s a bitch. Now to be more so.

But if you know what comes after this, you’ll know what to do.

Kiss her.
/////

Maybe it is different up there. But are you really betting with new money now?????

Hock

Thigh Master

If you call for the same over and over again, you're bound to get one right. Besides, momentum indicators have been pointing down. It would have to be an S/R level or a countertrend/countermo indicator telling you to dip your toe.

Roger D.

The days not over yet,but a 45 minute pop up and a reversal in progress has a mighty bear flavor to it. The big bank weren't buying it and sold the REIT's.

Roger D.

usdollar

It looks like a wave 4 of C1 maybe complets/are completed.
tommorrow more sideways, down Thursday Friday Monday, then bottom hit for now!

Roger D.


1,2,1,2 NOW IN 3/3/3 Down,down and down. A red candle today will signal a large acceleration will commence.

Roger D.

Trader 123

Hey Roger,

How much capital do you use to trade with and how often do you trader per week?

Mamma Boom Boom

A 'drop and pop' tomorrow, should set us just-right with the Lord.

Jimmy Cramer

Bottom will be Monday 7/12. Flash Crash Part Deux coming soon to a screen near you. Take it to the bank.

Jimmy

David

Does anybody know were I can find a chart of the Japan Treasuries from 1989-present ?

I keep hearing from Pretcher and his followers that bonds a bad place to be. But if I study a real world example of deflation in Japan I think that the chart of bonds would say otherwise.

What would TLT look like is we went to 1.5% on a 10 year note?

Roger D.

Down into it, should come down out of it.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/3ca788da-52ef-458d-b14b-08a8aeba9dff

Aramis-

Headline story on finance google news.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38114025

Hockthefarm

Wow Aramis:

Who is this big gunner, big shooter, big fella prechter!

Oil going to 32??????

House prices only half way there??????

The Dow to print 1000 to 3000 in the next 5 to 7 years?????

Well tie my head to the side of a pig and roll me in the mud.

Max

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SubZero5

Tesla initially failed in the IPO.. Price says that. They bought it themselves and propped the price up to create new buyers... They were ready to prop things up until the rich idiots came in. Then you know the rest: push the tempo.. :)

yelnick

Subzero, I think the Tesla story is different. The underwriters placed it well with long term holders, but the PR around it caught the attention of day traders. They ran it up then flipped out of it. The key tell is it found a base around $16 and came back. Bodes well that it rose and held above the opening price ($19) in a bad market today.

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