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« Mother Market is a Big Tease | Main | The Incredible Shrinking VC Industry? »

Thursday, July 15, 2010

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Roger D.

ns, I have to look.

this market should break here soon.

Roger D.

Roger D.

Market is wainting on the Euro to start down.

nspolar

Roger, I had thot the Aug 10 Bradley turn would play into this, this time around. May yet and turn into something unexpected, like end of first big doink down in POG.

Dollar gotta turn here soon. POG slip slipping away too ... agree with Mamma on this one. Air below.

ns

Roger D.

ns, the market has started wave 3, some of these charts are darn right ugly. This market could tank under 10K, but might not happen till Monday.

This should be the end of the Great bull market,inspired and fueled by the great assholes Greenspan and Bernanke. No put or PPT will save them now.

Roger D.

Roger D.

MCD

Thrust down from it's broadening top today. Alot of people will be looking for a big wave 2 up Monday. It all depends on the Euro,Asia,and Europe Sunday night. Sleep tight.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/bbebd969-c2e2-438f-98b7-74e9ce57803b

Aramis-

Looks like Roger D was right after all the flame...

Roger D.

The Dow

I have wave ii done at the close,so I expect a gap down Monday. If that was a running abc correction,that will probably happen. If wave 5 extended and ended near the close,a pretty good bounce is probable.

I don't think so.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/fcc0981e-0ac3-4e56-b09f-89e12635b9c2

adg

black monday, DJIA -5000

DG

Looks like Roger D was right after all the flame...

Posted by: Aramis- | Friday, July 16, 2010 at 01:46 PM

It depends on your timeframe and willingness to absorb losses. Personally, Roger's level of accuracy is useless to me. I'm not interested in waiting months and months and allowing 10% drawdowns in my trading account.

Also, Roger's wave count is still wrong.

DG

I have wave ii done at the close,so I expect a gap down Monday.

Do you ever have wave counts in which patterns' endings don't coincide with the close of trading?

Again, just from a probability perspective, there are very few patterns that actually end EXACTLY at the end of any given trading day. That you continually make the claim that they do is yet another example of the way you import your subjective bias into your wave counts.

Trader 123

When I found out the Goldman Sachs settlement had been leaked an hour before the close..." - Mr. Panic

You are so totally WRONG about this I don't even know where to begin. For one, the WSJ had an article that same morning about a settlement with the SEC as being IMMINET. Secondly, various wire services were carrying the news of an "announcement" by the SEC during the last half hour of trading.

Trader 123

"I have wave ii done at the close,so I expect a gap down Monday." - Roger

"Do you ever have wave counts in which patterns' endings don't coincide with the close of trading?" - DG

I agree 100% with DG on this.
This is just one more reason why Roger's analysis and methodology is completely useless, not too mention highly naive.

Aramis-

well, I am still learning, and have A LOT to go. just saying that Roger was saying that the intermediate top was in 3 days ago.

What do you guys say? Up from here? down to DJ9600? Then up?

The counting of waves is still a mystery to me. I am looking at res/sup levels and patterns.

Roger D.

Some I guess are just too young and have never seen a "real" bear market. I remember the last primary bear in the 70's,the market seemed like it went down every freakin day. So markets do finish waves at the eod and do sub-divide down. God do I have to teach you guys everything?,lol.

Aramis,

There's a good reason I say a important top is in.

Exhibit the single most bearish chart in the universe. This should produce a very quick decline. The Valueline is now in wave 3 of 1 of Supercycle wave "A" down.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/8635c0a8-32c9-44b2-8fd7-510bb41254a7


Roger D.

Roger D.

Aramis,

Here's the Valueline chart.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/482f0961-13ca-4bea-92d3-3c76a1ca8ab4

hey you guys are wrong

It just so happens that the expiration on the SPX options
was Thursday...yesterday, as has been forever .They closed at top tick....anybody but a MORONIC SOB WOULD NOT TRADE SOMETIMES AT CLOSE in fact my most succesful trades have come on setups just as these.So 123 and DG your'e wrong on this, any trader worth his account will till you and trade like this......SHEESH!

Mr. Panic

The SEC announcing that it was going to make an announcement one hour before the close just before options expiration in $spx contracts was the leak. Why would the SEC do this? The WSJ article which I didn't see I am sure was a helpful reminder to those what the SEC announcement might be.

DG

It just so happens that the expiration on the SPX options
was Thursday...yesterday, as has been forever .They closed at top tick....anybody but a MORONIC SOB WOULD NOT TRADE SOMETIMES AT CLOSE in fact my most succesful trades have come on setups just as these.So 123 and DG your'e wrong on this, any trader worth his account will till you and trade like this......SHEESH!

Unfortunately, we aren't talking about yesterday, we're talking about every day. Roger insists at the close of trading, if the market has gone up that day, that it is the end of his imaginary "wave 2".

You could cut and paste his commentary from the past 2 1/2 weeks and it would be the same as yesterday, so he clearly wasn't playing some options expiration setup.

If the last tick of the day triggers a trade, I'll take it, but I'm not going to say that just because the clock on the wall hits 4 PM ET, "mass psychology" changes. Download the daily closing prices on the SPX and tell me what percentage of days, all-time, don't see prices that move beyond the close in the direction of the prior day's trade. 10%? That means 90% of the time, you could get a better entry than the prior day's close.

Roger D.

DG,

Sometimes markets do correct intra day and open down. Take a look at the Valueline weekly chart posted above.

Now if you think that chart is bullish even for Monday,all I can say is I've got a bridge in Brooklyn for you at a very good price.

Roger D.

p.s. I hope your sure as hell not long at close today.

DG

So markets do finish waves at the eod and do sub-divide down.

I didn't say the didn't. I said the probabilities are against it. It is the low-probability play to trade that way. I like high-probability plays.

God do I have to teach you guys everything?,lol.

I'd settle for you teaching me one thing. Other than how not to trade, of course.

I'm still waiting to see the post outlining all your trades. I've never been part of the "you're not a real trader" brigade here, but you can't possibly be trading your calls. If you are, at best, you are close to breakeven since the February low, when you started your non-stop posting spree about "wave-iii of 3".

Some of us actually pay attention to the posts to see who's good feel for the market and who doesn't. You don't. I wouldn't give you fake money to trade on my behalf.

Roger D.

DG,

I think the only time I ever said "go Short" was last week when the Euro hit 1.27 in a edt.

Look every waver out there 90 pct of the time is just guessing. That's a fact.

Now if you couldn't see a top and 5 waves down and 3 up yesterday coupled with a broadening top and a finish of a major corrective cluster.

You are just a dumb freakin trader. Not me.

So did you make any money today?? like I did.

I hope you did but you have been pissing and moaning for so long,seems to me your just one fucking frustrated SOB. My advice put your feet up and take a midol.

Roger D.

Gary


posted on Daneric's blog today

"I have posted many comments here on Bidu,AAPL,MCD,AZO,the Dax and most of all the Valuline that index topped at 2720 with a huge rise going parabolic in 12 months rising from just below 1000 to it's all time high.The most telling chart and index of all markets , since it's wave 1 decline it has traced out a expanding triangle for it's 1,2 taking a classic form a,b,c,d,e. "e" ended at yesterdays close of which the momo's took top tick to set the top.Expanding triangles are the most bearish of all because they are subdivided by unintelligent wild swings exhausting all the wealth as the play out. The "e" final wave up usually retraces to the 50% level and collapses with no warning "lights out" so to speak .The gap is not recovered for years sometimes breakaway signalling the markdown is begining.Mike Drakulich over at EWI pointed this pattern out over the years 1990,1998,2000 come to mind in stocks at that time.Broadening patterns which were prevelant all over the place in 1929 an be seen in todays market everywhere.

So be aware we don't have to go up from here there is nothing to say all the stocks have more upside .To me there done just like the $VLE was done on April 15 the ensuing crash will be spectacular
the smart mony has distributed all there shares in that expanding triangle.Who says technical analysis means squat ...not me. "

DG

I think the only time I ever said "go Short" was last week when the Euro hit 1.27 in a edt.

You're a fucking lying sack of shit. You've been saying "I went short" or "I added to my shorts" almost every day the market's been up for the past two weeks. And for months before that since the February low.

You are just a dumb freakin trader. Not me.

But that's just it, Roger, no one knows when and what you are trading, so all we have to go on regarding your trading prowess is your own claims. Since you clearly aren't above lying about your market calls, I give your claims about as much credibility as claims to have seen Bigfoot.

I hope you did but you have been pissing and moaning for so long,seems to me your just one fucking frustrated SOB. My advice put your feet up and take a midol.

My advice to you is to wipe the dried-out cumshots from the BJ's you're giving now that you've lost all your cash over the past six months waiting for "wave-iii of 3" out of your eyes and look at a chart put together by someone who knows more about technical analysis than you. That would be just about anyone on the planet.

"Made money today". Yeah, after losing much more money over the past two weeks. What you call "pissing and moaning" I call "pointing out the fact that Roger D is an idiot". And FYI, dumbass, I went short yesterday at 108.46 SPY on the early morning drop after not going short since my July 8th short got stopped out for a nickel loss. See, I don't have to wait two weeks for a trade to pan out for me.

Any fucking time you want to have a trade-off, where we each post EXACT trade entries and exits, fucking say the word, liar. I'll mop the floor with you like your mother mops the floor of the whorehouse where she's the janitor, you little bitch.

DG

I think the only time I ever said "go Short" was last week when the Euro hit 1.27 in a edt.

Yeah, either you are lying OR you are admitting you don't trade your own calls, since you definitely have said every day during this rally that the rally was over. At the close of trading each day, of course.

Either way, it makes you a poser.

BIISS

For all the bulls out there remember one thing it goes down "hard"

http://www.youtube.com/watch#!v=OwZiTmd1P4s&feature=related

DG

By the way, for anyone who wants to interact with traders who don't necessarily follow the strictest of wave theory rules but who trade well nonetheless, this is a good site:

http://www.tradingdanumbas.com/

It's run by some traders who used to work with Dominick Mazza (may he rest in peace) back in the 2007-2008 time frame. They'll trade circles around both perma-bears and perma-bulls. While an idiot like Roger is waiting for a trade he took two weeks ago to get back to break-even, these guys will take 50 ES points out of the market from both the long and the short side.

I have no affiliation with the site other than the utmost respect for those guys' trading abilities.

Roger D

Can you say you pocketed $11,600 today....from yesterdays
close will can ya big guy!

adg

no doubt this market is going to crash next week

DG

More Logic:

The decline from Thursday's high to Friday's low, covering a period of 6 Hourly bars, was 3.61 SPY points. This ranks as the 6th largest 6-Hourly bar decline since June 28-29, which had the largest 6-Hourly bar decline, at 4.57 points.

IF yesterday's decline were the start of something significantly larger than the decline from June 28th to July 1st, the size of the decline should have been LARGER, not smaller.

Attention to detail is key to success in wave analysis.

DG

Can you say you pocketed $11,600 today....from yesterdays
close will can ya big guy!

Posted by: Roger D | Friday, July 16, 2010 at 09:38 PM

I believe that about as much as I believe in the tooth fairy.

Also, again, what's the P&L from the moment you announced you were "going short". Obviously, on a down day you are going to recoup some of your pre-existing losses on short positions you've been holding since February. It's like a long-only trader saying he's up big since March 2009. Yeah, but he's down even bigger since the Fall of 2007. Color me unimpressed.

Gary

Has the crash in the Nikkei started?

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/46e09858-e057-41d1-880a-03cb527c7f58

Gary

DG,

You win,

Even though you have crowned yourself the chief of police of Elliot wave, I am just tired of your silly bullshit. This market will crash and yet some are in denial. I told many about the 2007 top and yet they could not see it. I started talking about this top back in November on Tony C's blog and have never taken the abuse that I have on this blog from ignorant people that have such a small focus, I never said I was a day trader.

This is just not worth the trouble any more.I don't like the negative emotions it brings me to.

I want to thank Yelnick and nspolar.

Good bye and good luck.

Roger D.

DG

Even though you have crowned yourself the chief of police of Elliot wave, I am just tired of your silly bullshit.

I don't know about "chief of police", but I do know that my job in life isn't to affirm your wave-counting skills. I think they suck and I say so. Can't stand the heat? Get out of the kitchen.

I told many about the 2007 top and yet they could not see it.

So? Maybe if it was still 2007, this might matter.

have never taken the abuse that I have on this blog from ignorant people that have such a small focus, I never said I was a day trader.

If you're not a day trader, what is all that "I'm adding to shorts on the close" stuff? Either you added to shorts or you didn't. And why all the posts using short-term charts? If you're a position trader, why do you care what GS is doing on the 15 minute chart? It's a simple situation.

And just saying you're "not a day trader" doesn't mean you can just throw any old longer-term wave count out there, either. You clearly can't count waves in the short or long term. What you are is a "fundamentalist", as I have said to you on numerous occasions. Why don't you just stick to that and leave the technical stuff to those who actually use it correctly?

Also, you fundamentally misunderstand the nature of public domain blogs. If you post something here, anyone with Internet access can see it and criticize it. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE THAT, YOU SHOULD NOT POST. PERIOD.

I trade to make money, not sit around telling everyone how great they are because they can put some Elliott Wave labels on a chart. This isn't kindergarten where everyone gets a gold star just for showing up.

Chuck Cheese

You are pathetic. It's a theory dumb ass. A count for what ever happens. A toll, not unlike you. I haven't ever laughed so hard. I suspect the only thing you can do right is jerk off to Roger's post. OK back to my tarot cards ... something about a truck.

Chuck Cheese

tool, not toll, troll would also work

nspolar

Roger, good luck to you. I feel a bit the same and will probably take a powder for a spell. Besides time to go fishing for a few days or more, soon.

I try to limit blog posting. I think it actually a positive to do so, with respect to real goal of what we are discussing. Make money.

I am about the antitheisis of a daytrader. I posted my RT trades here in mid and latter April. I have not traded since, still in those and nicely ahead. I could not day trade, if I wanted do, but I don't really want to.

If my current timing models are more correct than otherwise I probably won't trade out until late in the year or early next year. I have repeatedly stated I think the first phase of this assumed C to be long, a grinder, and extend. And soon we should see a more continual repeat pattern of red sticks. In any event the juice is leaving the scene.

I have read numerous times only 17 % of day traders make money. I suspect that about right, as it goes along with what one reads about options.

The market is quite an animal. A beautiful beast. I think it about time it (the market) do some serious house cleaning, or maybe past time. There are numerous reasons to read blogs, one to gauge sentiment.

It appears to me from blog reading there is too much speculation going on again, al la early 2000. Day traders every where it seems. Course everyone thinks they can win, but according to statistics I have read few make money in a bear market. So we see how it goes.

If you want to follow and learn more about EW I would follow that site A Part of NY. I think his work decent, even though I have not followed the site all that long.

Later.

ns

Mamma Boom Boom

Roger, nspolar, be careful, don't let that door bump you in the derriere.

DG

You are pathetic. It's a theory dumb ass. A count for what ever happens. A toll, not unlike you. I haven't ever laughed so hard. I suspect the only thing you can do right is jerk off to Roger's post. OK back to my tarot cards ... something about a truck.

Another guy without the slightest clue.

Are you trying to say that because "it's a theory" that means that everyone's counts are equally valid? So, a guy who has zero experience in wave analysis has the same chance of being right as a guy with years of experience? Are we just supposed to ignore the fact that Roger's been wrong with just about every count he's posted? Does a track record of being wrong not count as a sign that the person wielding the tool doesn't know how to use it?

Stick to planning parties for little kids. That's probably around the right intellectual level for you.

Chuck Cheese

No, my point is that you are an asshole, pure and simple, even if Roger is 100% wrong. Any other conclusions you draw from my post proves that point.

DG

No, my point is that you are an asshole, pure and simple, even if Roger is 100% wrong

This may come as a newsflash, but I'm really unconcerned about your opinion of me. I'm concerned with making money and the kinds of knowledge and analysis that furthers that goal and, to a lesser extent, debunking poorly-constructed wave counts, when posted here. Everything else is extraneous.

Any other conclusions you draw from my post proves that point.

You don't get to decide what conclusions I draw from your post, I do. The conclusion I drew, i.e. that you are clueless, seems pretty solid. Even more so after your second post.

DG

debunking poorly-constructed wave counts, when posted here.

Oh, and if you are looking for proof of the necessity of such endeavors, go check out Kenny's or Daneric's message board and read the many posts of the poor slobs who actually traded based on their flawed wave counts. Many tales of thousands upon thousands lost in waiting for the always-just-over-the-horizon "wave-iii of 3".

Crappy E-wave is hazardous to people's financial well-being, so when Roger or others peddle it, yeah, I don't mind saying "That's crappy E-wave". Once my track record of pointing it out turns negative, i.e., what I call "crap" actually turns out to be good, I'll stop. Until then, I make no apologies for doing so.

Chuck Cheese

I'm saying ...

DG

I'm saying ...

Yeah, duly noted.

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