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« Fading the Fed as QE2 Embarks | Main | Insights Into China Markets »

Thursday, July 22, 2010

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Michael

EWI and their analysts only wish to see what they want to see, rather than take a look at the NYSE Advance/Decline line or what certain stock sectors are doing.

How convenient of them to completely ignore the recent "bottoming" action of the entire commodity sector . . . enery, coal, nat-gas, drilling, mining, copper, steel, etc.

If you don't believe me, simply take a look at the charts of BTU, CLF, FCX, WLT, or X.

Once again, EWI has their head stuck in the stand and totally clueless.

Whitebear

You have been bragging about the Advance/Decline since the Feb low. Why don't you go back to the archive and read what you said in March, April. Why did you not have predicted the subsequent fall in May, June?

Michael

My point is that EWI consistently only wants to see what they want to see. If an indicator (or a sector of stocks) does not support their thesis, they conveniently ignore it. The NYSE A/D line is just one of many technical indicators that can be valuable, yet they choose to ignore.

In case you haven't noticed, EWI has been on a HUGE Deflationary theme and yet stocks like FCX, WLT, and X have been in a bottoming process and are now breaking out to the upside over the past several days.

If you want to bury your "head in the sand" as EWI consistently does, then be my guest.


Mamma Boom Boom

>We still seem to be in the Big Tease, and it is doing its job of making bear and bull confused to the max.<

NOT.

da bear

I think we are in 'b' of 'iv' of 'e' of 2.

Which other way can you count it?

I would like to know.

The July Financial Forecast's alternate count was correct, but prechter did not update it in the EWT.

The rally since the flash crash twin low has been choppy, spastic, and over-lapping connoting a corrective rally. I don't see it as a three wave corrective rally, but maybe I am looking at it differently.

Also, if you draw a downtrend line from the 11,200ish double top, connecting it to the 10,592 (wave 'c'?) corrective high then the failure at 10,400 took place at the downtrend line. The line is currently moving lower and is around 10,200 to 10,300. A failure at 10,400 (or as high as 10,480) will mean that we test 10,000 again on the DJIA. Furthermore, if you count the rise off 9,600 as wave 'e' (as I do) then the rally into 10,400 was wave 'iii' of 'e'. the decline back to 10,000 was either all of 'iv' of 'e' or 'a' of 'iv' of 'e'. 'b' of 'iv' of 'e' could end soon, then a decline back to as low as 9,700 would count as 'c' of 'iv' of 'e'. Then a final wave 'v' of 'e' past the downtrend line to around 10,700 or so (10,666 has been my target) to complete wave 2. Right now, if you draw a channel from the 9,700ish wave ii of 'e' low to the wave 'a' of 'iv' low on the down side connected with the 'iii' of 'e' high at 10,400 on upside the target for wave 'v' of 'e' is somewhere between 10,600 and 10,800.

Rounding off, I took 11,200 as the high and 9,800 as the low for wave 1 down, a total decline of 1,400 points. A 62% retrace of that decline taken from the 9,800 wave 'v' of 1 low would point to a corrective high at 10,668.


da bear

da bear

Michael,

Speaking of commodities, gold counts best as being in a wave 'B' rally since the Fall 2008 lows. The wave 'iv' low of 'B' was around 1,040 and gold has been in 'v' of 'B' ever since. If the 1,175 area holds for gold then a 'five of five' of 'B' rally is still on the table. Could be a quick spike up. Probably like a panic spike. Would correlate to any corrective top of this stock market upward correction. I would look for both to end by Labor Day.

da bear

Michael

Thanks da Bear!

Many of the commodity stocks that I trade broke-out on Tuesday. Had you simply bought FCX, CLF, WLT, or X as soon as the stocks had taken out Monday's highs, you made BIG MONEY.

:)

yelnick

da bear, you posit: I think we are in 'b' of 'iv' of 'e' of 2. Two counts within orthodox EWI"

- the Big Tease: Let's say wave 2 started back in late may or early june, your pick, and is an expanded flat where B went lower than the start of A. We would be In C, and rather than finish at 1100 it is breaking in a more complex way. The run to 1100 is easily counted as wave i of C, although one could argue it is waves i-ii-iii of C. My issue with that is i-ii are very small compared with the current wave that they would call iv. If we call the run to 1100 wave i, we would have been in wave ii and are now likely in wave iii of C. Since wave i went 90 S&P pts, if iii=i then we go to 1065+90=1155. If ii truncates at 62%, we go to 1121.

- the Modified STU count: they will have to come back Friday with a new count, and I suspect they will pick the most bearish. They may say their 2d wave 2 inthe nested 1-2 is breaking n a more complex way. they run into a problem with it goes beyond 1100 (then the inside 2 is higher than the outside) or if it takes too much time (then it is slower than the outside 2), but so far they ignore he metric that the inside waves should be less than the outside.

Mamma Boom Boom

>I think we are in 'b' of 'iv' of 'e' of 2.

Which other way can you count it?

I would like to know.<

da bear, my guess is that, within 2 years, EW will be a completely repudiated theory. It's practiclly there now.

Ty

So far, failed to make new high for move and stalling in the .786 retrace area, look out below?

Michael

"da bear, my guess is that, within 2 years, EW will be a completely repudiated theory. It's practiclly there now." - Mamma

Agreed 100%

da bear

Mamma Boom Boom,

Within 2 years... I don't wanna think what 2 years from now will be like. Probably living in huts or caves or something. lol

back to the markets:

with a 10 day chart of the DJIA, it looks like an five wave A wave decline, with a subsequent B wave rally also comprising of five waves. The next move soon should be down with a target range of 9,700 to 10,000, following that we should see a final wave 'v' of 'e' of '2.' Probably by Labor Day. Target price of 10,600 to 10,800. Although it could top out by mid-August. I also think that any further rally in gold needs to be completed by this time.

da bear

da bear

ok,

here is the link to the 10 day chart on the DJIA:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=0&o_symb=djia&freq=7&time=18


da bear

da bear

ty,

are you talking about stocks?
Proverbs 7:22 warned of a "correction of the stocks."
Today is 7/22.
Levitating stock market may slip and fall but a 'c' wave correction could be the correct count.
Proverbs 7:22 warned of a "correction" and not a "crash."
After a correction a last burst higher for stocks could be in store for us. Topping out anywhere between the first week of August to the first half of September.

In my previous post I posted the link to the 10 day chart of the DOW.
i am counting the 10,400 high as 'iii' of 'e' of 2. the first wave down to 10,000 as 'a' of 'iv' of 'e' of 2. The current rally as the end of 'b' of 'iv' of 'e' of 2. up next is the 'c' down. following that should come one last 'v' of 'e' of 2 to end the corrective wave.


da bear

Roger B.

SELLLLLLLL EVERYTHING!!!
BLAAAAAACK FRIIIIIDAY CRASSSSHHH!!!

Roger B.

SELLLLLLLL EVERYTHING!!!
BLAAAAAACK FRIIIIIDAY CRASSSSHHH!!!

Mamma Boom Boom

Today, we crossed another hurdle, a technical breakout.

upstart

What are the odds of wave c down of a flat the next few days?

da bear

Roger B.,


yeah it looks like stocks could be weak tomorrow.


on gold: damn! I still can't figure out a good long-term count for gold! I know that it is in a B wave at some degree. i thought it was in a wave 'b' of four, but i think that five waves in gold were completed into the Spring 2008 high.

This move off the Fall of 2008 is taking a long time so perhaps it is a major 'B' coming off a full five wave bull market in gold.


da bear

JT

Looks like "Wave Rust" is wrong once again with his over the top ranting and raving on Obama . . .

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100722/ap_on_bi_ge/us_senate_energy

Contrary to what Mr. Rust was claiming, "Cap & Trade" was never gonna make it out of the Senate.
Cap & Trade is DEAD.

ROLF

Today, we crossed another hurdle, a technical breakout.


LOL!!!!!!!! MAMMA MIA

da bear

a 'c' of 'iv' of 'e' of 2 low minimum target of 10,150, maximum of 9,700 with 10,000 also being a possibility. A drop below 9,600 would mean, uh, "DOWN GOES FRAZIER!"

da bear

Michael

An "Emergency STU" just came out from EWI.

LOL!

da bear

the alternate count for the STU should prove to be correct.

Michael, any way you can all clue us in as to what it says?


da bear

da bear

Michael,

Here is what Proverbs 7:22 (KJV) says: "He goeth after her straightway, as an ox goeth to the slaughter, or as a fool to the correction of the stocks;"

Right on schedule Prechter puts out an Emergency STU. lol

someone should tell him that any more downside could be a 'correction' and not a crash. If it were a 'crash' then King Solomon would have spoken of the 'bulls going to the slaughter.' lol

da bear

Shanky

Easy to get confused when you are playing against a rigged deck. Nice ramp job on all that positive news this morning. I guess the AMZN news will be worth another 10 SPX points overnight to the upside. Oh, the EU bank stress tests announced tomorrow, that's another 30. We'll be at 1150 in the blink of an eye. A week or so ago I threw out a 1140 target, abandoned it, got it back, reduced it, abandoned that and now am considering going back where I started. I know I am not alone as you noted above. Confusion reigns. What a Fing joke this market has become. I have reduced all trading to the swings of the 30m indicators till this thing finds a path.

Thanks as always for your excellent work. It is appreciated.

Oooj

Emergency STU from EWI

Do you mean Emergency STFU?


Michael Wags

"I know I am not alone as you noted above. Confusion reigns. What a Fing joke this market has become." - Shanky

You obviously have not been looking at individual stock sectors or names like CLF, FCX, WLT, or X which all have had huge moves after taking out Monday's highs on Tuesday.

I would suggest that you take a look at the charts above. They've been "bottoming" for awhile now and have only just begun their break-out as of this past Tuesday.

Good Luck to All!


Daniel Goulding

My diametric here in OZ (we are currently in the last leg) remains live. I would prefer to see both the US/OZ trace out a triangle here (rise today was wave-b) to chew up some more time. The completion of this diametric should also bring to a close Wave-B from Nov-2008 here in OZ anyway.

High yield bonds in the US posted a new yearly high today, therefore invalidating those scenarios that have us in Wave-C already IMHO. This is the real fly in the ointment for those calling for 3 of 3 to the downside. US high yield bonds tend to lead, not lag. I am open to the idea that this time is different and this money wont flow into stocks but that remains speculation not fact at this time.

I am looking for a big leg down into the Sep-Oct timeframe (3700 here in OZ - I am open to the idea that this is just another X wave with the last phase of a complex correction to play out). If we get there within less than a month I am happy to conlude Wace-C has commenced.

Taz

Shanky

WAGS - Lord I have missed you! I do look at individual stocks. I have been long (and short) several over the past few weeks (I'm avoiding ETF's these days). To add to your argument, the weekly charts are showing some interesting bottoming possibilities there as well. Thanks for the insight as usual.

yelnick

da bear, the special STU tonight admitted their count was blown, gave a prime count and two alternatives, one of which is my Big Tease count. As long as 1100 is unbreached their prime count works and suggests wave 3 of 3 etc imminently. The other two point to several weeks of meandering in the wilderness, making my Aug4 turn date look a little better.

cloudslicer

In my opinion the bear market from 2000 is unfolding as a complex wave ABCxABC.

We completed the (X) wave in 2010 and are now in wave Y. Specifically we are in a minute wave B up of intermedate wave A down of primary wave Y down. For an X and Z to follow.

A long and grinding sideways market that would fit in to Bill Gross's new normal.

Roger D.

If AMZN can crash in after hours after doing 3 down and 3 up, a crash down tomorrow would not surprise me.

Roger D.

twitter.com/DrBubb

One stock (AMZN) will not crash the market. And AMZN is not AAPL, nor GOOG

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/70dee49e-c84f-4e96-802e-a18dd1aa0ba6

Roger D.

Mr. Panic

This is a perfect time for a meltdown. All the bears are discouraged and or bullish and everyone else is super bullish while the crash setup is still intact including the pre-crash fractals from 1987.1929 etc. Since July 14/15 high the markets have been imitating the April high fractal.
We had another Nasdaq 100 cumulative tick extreme today as well as the NYSE tick closing at its high and producing the highest tick close going back six months. (didn't go furthur back)

DG

a crash down tomorrow would not surprise me.

Yeah, we know. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you probably wouldn't be surprised by a crash on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday of next week, the week after that, the week after that, next month, the month after that, next year, the year after that, next decade, the decade after that, next century, the century after that, etc.

trendlines

Last post on the SPX discussed the bullish and bearish views, and suggested a break of the downtrendline as an indication of the former. With the bullish price action last session(although on relatively low volume), SPX is on the verge of an upside breakout.

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-short-term-on-verge.html

JT

"... a crash down tomorrow would not surprise me." - Roger

Listen up people.
The big bad "wolf" (and broken clock) is calling for yet another CRASH!!!

Too funny.
You are a joke, Roger.

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