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Wednesday, July 28, 2010

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Daniel  - Taz

The riddle for the P3 enthusiasts is why US high yield bonds have hit new highs.

Don't get me wrong I am looking for a 20% drop starting one to two weeks from now - breadth is too strong for an imminent start to this decline - the best us bears can hope for is a sideways move (which may include a new high as wave-a) for one to two weeks so that breadth can weaken materially before we go lower.

My wave-g of a diametric here in OZ needs another week or two to look ideal. If we do head lower we need 20% downside in less than a month - which astro says is doable - otherwise it is just an X wave and we head higher one last time.

Taz

Daniel  - Taz

I should note US high yield bonds hitting new highs is less a concern for me since my diametric should hopefully conclude Wave-B with Wave-C kicking off from a lower high.

I think high yield bonds are a red herring this time around - but if we were really about to kick off P3, then they should not be doing what they are doing.

www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawmv5FT0nGt2EOWVMM5O6W8Y3ktxtMZWdPM

Saw this yesterday (28th) before the market opened - some good fib analysis on a 60 min chart which suggested some type of top may have been in at the 1020 high, coupled with his chart showing how it could be counted as complete which he posted on July 27th - it proved good for a decent trade even if it ends up not being THE top of this move:

http://gi61et.blogspot.com/2010/07/1607-bst-spx-update_27.html

http://gi61et.blogspot.com/2010/07/1355-bst-spx-update-interesting-fib.html

Dsquare

I don't like Daneric's count (or the others), but the last c wave in Daneric's count looks like a zigzag, so rather than an abc I think it will turn out to be an abcde triangle (contracting with reverse alternation). And if that happens then I'm looking for that to be d of an expanding triangle (makes more sense now that it would be expanding rather than a neutral triangle as the thrust should be pretty large). The whole wave from 1200 would be a flat-x-expanding triangle.

Mamma Boom Boom

About 3:30 yesterday, I told you the low was probably in. I'll stick with that.

Mamma's Ego

No one cares Mamma.
No one cares.

Molecool

Nobody bares about attention hoers who insist on using italics.

Molecool

Damn iPhone - LOL

Les

Short top of 2-3 weeks in place. Getting a pretty close approximation of the July 13-16 pattern. Primary input is black box system which signaled top on Monday.

twitter.com/DrBubb

I think THE TURN has arrived.

We have gone back to the "scene of the the crime" - ie, the "Flash Crash" gaps, and the SELL programs are now kicking in.

EEM Chart: http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/1480/zzzzv.gif
Trading History
====
1- EEM left a 2-day Island Reversal at its mid-April high
2- In early May, it slid fast on heavy volume, near 200mn shs
3- The final drop also had big vol., but less than the first
4- EEM left behind a GAP as it collapsed in early May
5- The early July leg up was on light volume
6- The most recent leg up was also on light volume

More charts: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Box

da bear

I still think it is an 'e' wave. the count looks better on the Nasdaq.

I agree that a small iv is possible for stocks.

here is a link to a DOW chart: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643&o_symb=djia&freq=7&time=18

It is a 10 day chart of the DOW and shows the final fifth wave of 'e'. so the strong move up into 10,580ish is iii, and this down move is iv, and a final v of 5 of 'e' is still possible. 'iv' should not go below 10,300. it looks like a slightly lower low for the day would finish 'iv'.

A slightly weak day tomorrow and a weak open would satisfy the Arch Crawford July 30th to August 3rd time frame and still give the market enough time to rally into late August as occurred in 1930, 1930, and 1987.

On gold, gold needs to hold $1,150 and it looks like it will. So both stocks and gold could still rally some (gold is not confirming an imminent breakdown in this reflation rally).

da bear

Michael

Once again, COAL stocks lead the surge with multi-point gains by CLF and WLT as the Euro rallies hard.

Trade what you see, and you'll make an awful lot of money.

da bear

I agree with the possibility of a 'stab up'.
Gold should behave similarly.
yesterday, i did my own chart with the DJIA in the iv of 5 of 'e'. a 'iv' low should be between 10,300 to 10,400 (so right around here). Then the 'v' of 5 of 'e' rally would take the DOW to touch the upper trend line which is around 10,800 now and will go to about 10,850 in the next couple of weeks.

Hopefully, the August EWFF comes out tomorrow, I will like to hear what they say.

yelnick, since your turn date is August 6th you might nail the high!


da bear

Mamma Boom Boom

Missed it by 10 handles, but that pretty close.

Hockthefarm

McLaren on track with the big tease and a rally into September:

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/238/1/July-23-2010-CNBC-SQUAWK-BOX-EUROPE/Page1.html

Hock

da bear

Hock,

great find! that is somewhat the way I feel about stocks. The 1930 market had a final rally into Labor Day that was probably the last best chance to get out before the 2 year dive. As yelnick pointed out August of 1937 was the final phase of that rally. In 1987 the closing high occurred on August 25th. So those are some things to look at.

Looking at the gold chart there, the gold market is confusing. If gold fails to go below $1,150 soon then I think that it rallies along with stocks. I think that the $1,170-$1,180 level is key. If gold can get back above that soon then it should rally a bit further, and new nominal highs could occur. A high of around $1,300 would put in five full waves off the Fall 2008 low and complete Wave 'B' of 4.

da bear

Hockthefarm

Ths is the best roadmap I've seen with respect to our financial future. It even lays out the end game. Definancialization! All these big finance fluckers are going the way of the cobbler/tinkerer.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jul2010/pi2010078_530571.htm

Hock

JT

The shorts are "trapped" and getting CRUSHED again.

Potash just rallied $5.00 in the last hour or so.
When will the "perma-bears" learn???
LOL!

Freida

Crawford predicting apocalypse

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crawford-says-apocalypse-begins-monday-2010-07-26?reflink=MW_news_stmp

Dsquare

I have a potential crash scenario on the gold miners (HUI). Wave B of E from 2008 low is counted as a contracting triangle with reverse alternation. I have the HUI still in wave 4. My conservative target is about 250. http://www.mexicomike.ca/php/phpBB2/index.php

Mr. Pibb

Some pretty good entertainment over at Kenny's blog... Everyone's favorite perma-bull has been posting there for several weeks despite already having been banned there last fall. Kenny is so desperate for comments that he tolerates him......
PB: "Kenny have you seen Duncan's latest e-wave count over at Planet Yelnick" Kenny: "No"

yelnick

Mr Pibb, thanks for the comment over at Kenny's site. I must confess, I have not scanned it much recently, and even though I highlighted Daneric and MarketThoughts for their count putting the wave 1 bottom in July, it has a huge issue: waves 2 and 4 overlapped. Hence they have to consider it a rare Leading Diagonal without the normal compression (coming to a point).

Hockthefarm

Thanks for the thoughts bear.

If we print a 2.6 for gdp tomorrow I think August will be sideways to up as a minimum.

Regardless, I'm going to save my shorts for late Aug/early Sept.

Hock

Mr. Pibb

I haven't read his site much either since he "lost" most of his regular posters so I guess he welcomes about anyone these days......On another note, I saw a Cramer ad over at Daneric's less than an hour ago. This beats the Dan Zanger ads his site was getting at the April high....And in another Bear Stearns moment from March 2008, Cramer recommended Nvidia earlier in the week.

Hockthefarm

I can't get there:

"He writes: "Astrologers call it the 'Cardinal Climax.' It is considered to be the most powerful and important planetary alignment of the modern era. Perhaps it heralds the beginning of the real 'Aquarian Age' or the end of the 'Mayan Calendar.' (After all, what's a few months in a 25,600-year cycle?) These energies actually maximize from July 30 through August 3. There have been 'shadows' preceding and will be echoes afterwards for quite some time."

How do you measure a 25,600 year cycle??????
And with such accuracy.

Hock

da bear

So are we supposed to get some bad mojo during that time frame or after?

If he gets this one right then Arch Crawford will be up there with the great market callers of all time.


da bear

twitter.com/DrBubb

QQQ: http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/7662/zzzz.gif
Looks more bearish than
SPY: http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/6950/xxxq.gif

www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawmv5FT0nGt2EOWVMM5O6W8Y3ktxtMZWdPM

Mr Pibb, I used to visit there regularly. After a while I got tired of the arrogant, patronising, self-serving attitude. I only hung around because gi61et (a link to whose blog I posted the other day)started posting there with some fantastic, really helpful charts, quite a contrast to what the host was posting.

I had a look in when I saw your post above. He's changed some things on the blog but I can't say its for the better. The content still looks uninteresting to me. And what he can't change is the attitude I mentioned above. I can't be the only one who noticed it - I expect people ended up voting with their feet. I certainly did once gi61et stopped posting there.

The number of posts he's getting is down hugely, it seems. And alot of the posts are his own. It speaks for itself.

Jerry Favors

Mr. Pibb,

Kenny's site is filled with a bunch of PERMA-BEAR losers that couldn't trade their way out of a "paper-bag". They subscribe to all sorts of conspiracy and market manipulation theories that have absolutely nothing to do with executing a trading methodology, let alone making money.

It's like watching a bunch of people from Jonestown all sitting around the campfire and drinking from the same Kool-Aid.

They all post the same ridiculous "cut and paste" articles that fit with their highly pessimistic and negative bias. Its highly obvious that none of these people trade for a living, because they would have gone bankrupt a long time ago if they did.

If you noticed, even Kenny has essentially given up on Elliott Wave and Robert Prechter and his associate, Steven Hochberg. He's now posting CANSLIM portfolios and actually showing classic technical analysis of a half-dozen stock charts. EWT is no longer his primary presentation.

And yes, you are right about the post count.
For whatever reason, it is down to about 40 posts per day. Maybe they all left after feeling "called-out" for not making any DONATIONS to Kenny's blog, and they headed for Daneric's website. Certainly, there were a number of people that felt alienated when Kenny started groveling for donations. As I mentioned earlier, they are probably all congregating at the other P3 PERMA-BEAR camp ground, Camp Daneric!


jordan retro 11

Morality is not really the doctrine of how to make ourselves happy but of how we are to be worthy of happiness.Do you understand?

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