The golden goose of US innovation continues to get plucked. The NVCA released data which shows the industry is shrinking at an accelerating rate. This reflects the New Normal for venture capital, where capital efficiency is gaining share against traditional VC. Many large funds have moved into CleanTech, where the investments required are huge and long-term.
Curiously the WSJ looked at the similar data and had a rosy spin on it. Their estimate for 1H10 commitments to venture capital is $7.5B across 72 funds vs $6.6B across 68 funds a year earlier. Promising, but still half of 2008, when in the same period $14.2B was raised.
The WSJ data shows money flowing to early stage and multi-stage but shrinking from later stage funds - sucking the middle dry. This is consistent with anecdotal experience in the heart of venture capital, Silicon Valley, where the mid-sized funds are the most challenged, and many larger funds are raising smaller this time.
Possibly the way to square the two reports is to distinguish funds for US investment vs. funds for global investment. TechCrunch reports that the number of funds and overall capital are expected to continue to decline for traditional markets, but to expand for China, India and Brazil. Sequoia for example just closed a $1B early-stage China fund, which I believe would be excluded from the NVCA data (it counts based on location of fund, not of sponsoring firm) and yet skew the WSJ data upwards.
ECRI Index WLI-
The index was last below 120.6 in the week of July 24, 2009, when it measured 120.3, according to ECRI.
The index’s annualized growth rate fell to
*****
minus 9.8 percent
*****from minus 9.1 percent the previous week,
originally reported as minus 8.3 percent.
Barry Bagahammers is gonna save us all.
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Friday, July 16, 2010 at 01:13 PM
the latest elliott wave theorist: What the Fu&k was that?
da bear
Posted by: da bear | Friday, July 16, 2010 at 03:41 PM
For those that missed my comment yesterday...
I want to remind you of the fractal similarity of today with Oct.7th, 1987. Like yesterday, there was a hanging man on Oct.6th, 1987, and then the big drop started. This looks STRANGELY FAMILIAR
Posted by: twitter.com/DrBubb | Friday, July 16, 2010 at 04:39 PM
da bear, the latest EWT is a monster (40 pp) and my weekend reading. I have a commentary based on tonight's STU which I will finish by Sunday evening (I am out this weekend). EWI's confidence in the dreaded iii of 3 down is growing.
Posted by: yelnick | Friday, July 16, 2010 at 04:48 PM
"the latest elliott wave theorist: What the Fu&k was that?"
Bob must be feeling very confident about his count.
This issue seems like one He's always wanted to publish.
Roger D.
Posted by: Roger D. | Friday, July 16, 2010 at 05:23 PM
Yelnick,
I posted here a few days ago that wave 'e' of 2 may be over.
That would mean 3 of 3 is here.
I just think an update of the alternate count from the EWFF was in order.
He should have said "if this price level is violated then wave 3 of 3 is in force" which is what I did on my message board.
da bear
Posted by: da bear | Friday, July 16, 2010 at 05:46 PM
Bear:
Just finished the July EWT. Had to be the best one ever. To me it was an admission that things move from point A to point B in their own sweet time. While EW can tell you the final destination of the trip from point A to B in advance, the actual path of the trip and the time it takes is all rear view mirror. Clearly, that penny hasn't dropped for many on this board.
Cheers,
Hock
Posted by: Hockthefarm | Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 12:50 AM
Yes, that July EWT is wonderful! I bought this new scentless oil, locked the doors, printed out EWT and got to work. I took my own sweet time. It was just time for me to enjoy my own bearishness without judgment or interruptions or chores or guilt.
Afterwards, I thanked God for his abundance and enjoyed a rich, creaming pint of Haagen Dazs vanilla almond.
EWT, you rocked my world. Some people say you're horesh*t and have lost people money. I say I don't care. Bring it on, baby.
Posted by: Pat | Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 08:56 AM
yes, there is a 33.33333333333% chance that iii of 3 of Three of THREE of Tres (that means three in California) and Prechter puts out an article about music.
Figures.
My update at the beginning of the week was better than that.
Here is my So-so-so-see-o-namicks outlook: George Steinbrenner dying is not a good sign for baseball. confirms that five waves are in for baseball, kudos to EWI for calling the top in baseball. Yeah, screw the significant tops in stocks, picking the tops in second-rate pro sports leagues is where it's at! Bill Simmons (of ESPN) pointed out that it was a great time for "the boss" to die. He saved a lot of money on taxes too.
His death is probably a bad omen for all of sports.
And in the NBA Lebron James going to the Heat is probably bad for the competitive balance of the league. I have said for awhile now (on other boards) that Lebron is overrated. Signing with the Heat means that Lebron has finished five waves up or that his B wave top is in. He will now be known as a glorified Dr. J.
Al Gore and Global Warming. Global Warming PEAKED when "an inconvenient truth" came out. Then Gore and Tipper split, Gore got laughed out and now, hot damn, it is hot as hell outside. We are at least seeing a Global Warming sucker's rally.
Apple having problems with the new iPhone. went to the book store the other day, and guess who was on the cover of Fast Company? Yep, Steve Jobs.
In metals related news, some dude in Canada protested his escalating taxes by trying to pay his tax bill in PENNIES. Drudge Report pointed it out. So the day of Fiat Metals is approaching! So ask your local bank teller about pennies!
For next week: Proverbs 7:22 talks about a "correction in the stocks." So if we get a big decline next Thursday, props to King Solomon!
da bear
Stay tuned for Da Elliott Wave World Wide's (EWWW) Financial Theorist. It will speak of all things except for stocks, metals, and commodities, and paper currencies. It will tell you how to prepare for the upcoming tulip mania and the coming war of Armaggedon. Armgedon. End of Time. With a special feature on how Robert Prechter and David Icke have more in common than you think!
Posted by: da bear | Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 09:26 AM
Last post on the SPX talked about resistance levels. Price kissed the downtrendline shown, and reversed with some real sting on Friday. Short-term oversold, but no reversal signals from the usual momentum indicators - so probably more downside to come early next week. Question is, did we complete an A-B-C at 1010, or are we looking at a completed, nested 1-2, i-ii with serious downside(dreaded wave 3) ahead?
http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-b-c-or-w-v-e-3.html
Posted by: trendlines | Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 11:33 AM