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« Hemlines, Stocks and The Beatles | Main | Market Pundits Converging on a Scenario »

Sunday, August 01, 2010

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MT

Daily & weekly charts

http://i366.photobucket.com/albums/oo106/mtcharts/spxdaily-1.jpg


http://i366.photobucket.com/albums/oo106/mtcharts/spxweekly.jpg

(click on chart for bigger image)

JT

So much for Arch Crawford's "Cardinal Climax"...
I wonder how many Roger's of the World just took it in the arse on this absurd call!

BullandBear

Hochberg and the STU wrong once again.
You almost have to subscribe to the guy just to FADE him. He's THAT good!
LOL!

JT

Has anyone heard from "Crash Roger" lately?
I heard he was looking for a slow freight train to lie down in front of . . .

Ted

>>>So much for Arch Crawford's "Cardinal Climax"

Give it time, it wont happen in ONE day...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujgkdlF-nK0

JT

If you were short coming into today, you're already 20 POINTS underwater in the S&P. That's a fact.

Ted

You dont go short until the top is formed.

Arch Crawford Mars Uranus cycle is due to top August 1st through 4th as Mars opposes Uranus Jupiter.

Keep an eye on this week.

JT

"You dont go short until the top is formed." - Ted

And there's no top in sight with this latest powerful surge in the market.

twitter.com/DrBubb

"So much for Arch Crawford's 'Cardinal Climax' ":
I think it is a bot early to start rubbishing Crawford's forecast.

(From my own GEI website):
Over the weekend we had: two quakes in Iran, and a small one in California, and a huge solar flare, leading to a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), whioh will hit Earth tomorrow, and may disrupt magnetics (and more).

/see: http://news.discovery.com/space/incoming-the-sun-unleashes-cme-at-earth.html

Crawford's "crash window" stretches into November, and he spoke of a record selloff in August. If we see that, may I call you rude names?

JT

You Sir are obviously not a trader.
You wanting to give ARch Crawford "wiggle" room ALL the way out to November tells me as much. That's a freaking eternity for someone that is an active trader. Good luck with trying to "sell" a trader on that kind of prediction.

All the way out till November.
That's funny!

So much for the "Death Cross" and all of the worries over DEFLATION. The markets certainly are not reflecting that. Prechter and all of the PERMA-BEARS getting crushed again.

LOL!

Wave Rust

yelnick,

it was august 25 '87 for spx high and high close too.

plenty of time for spx 1175, and probably as DG says, in a series of 3's

I've said before, sell before Labor day. sell it all.
trade of the century = short for a long time.

i wont be bullish until Barry Bagahammers is gone.
------------------
doctor bubba,

dont be hatin' ;)

wave rust

Molecool

"Hochberg and the STU wrong once again.
You almost have to subscribe to the guy just to FADE him."

Hochberg's is a good technician but IMNSHO he continues to ignore market sentiment data that should stare him in the face at this point. Whenever he posts an alternate count - go with that one. But I think that the problem lays a bit deeper. Hochberg is trying to be an EWT purist and it's exactly that what is getting a lot of Elliotticians killed in this market.

Personally, a more paranoid and very mixed approach (via complementary momo indicators) have served me well in the past year. And when those point up or at least do not point down then it's pretty clear that an 'alternate' scenario is actually the high probability count.

A lot of you guys come here for Hochberg bashing and IMHO that's the easy and sarcastic way to show your frustration with one of the most taxing markets I have ever traded in my time. Hochberg has made pretty good calls in his time and I think that you have to learn how to read him. Personally, I think that Steve might benefit from opening up a little bit. He does often quote long term momo charts to back up his medium term counts. So, why not look at AD fractals and other more short term momo indicators?

But in any case, I find this love/hate relationship very revealing (and even might be an indicator of bearish exhaustion) - in the end you guys all want this market to tank and posting snide remarks about Steve won't expedite things either.

Oraclelurker

Your just begging for scorn and derision posting something that sensible here.

twitter.com/DrBubb

You want to judge me?
That is rather presumptious. I think you had better know a bit more before toy start laying assumptions on other people.

Wave Rust

yelnick,

it was an 8.75% rise from august 4th '87 low to aug 25th high

just calculated it ,,,, that's alot of pop and fizz for 15 trading days

this year we have 18 trading days

8.75% up from spx 1101 = 1197 ! !

maybe the 1202 is on the menu

wave rust

twitter.com/DrBubb

I agree with the comments about EWI purists. I think they could use volume more precisely. And using their work (including the Alt. Counts) along with other indicators, seems to be a smart use of that resource.

Wave Rust

mole,

thats a weak argument that a subscriber to EWI has to "read between the lines" of STU. newsletters should be clear, shouldn't they?

fwiw, i have never read Hochberg.

sounds like he can't go against the boss's prediction/count. if it's true, why would prechter do that? ego?

sad, in any case.

wave rust

Hockthefarm


An update from Yves: down then up?


Yves Lamoureux, investment advisor with Macquarie Private Wealth, believes deflation is a grave threat and is most bullish on 30-year Treasuries, as detailed here.

The stock market is a different story. For now, he sees little opportunity in equities, especially in the U.S. He expects the market to dip in the near term, leading to a transformative event. “We will have a solid readjustment of stocks lower and once we do that the market will be a 'buy and hold' opportunity,” he tells Aaron. (Lamoureux didn't specify a price target but promised to return to Tech Ticker to alert viewers when the buying opportunity is at hand.)

If you must be in stocks, “buy equities where there’s inflation,” suggests Lamoureux, who is most keen on Southeast Asia. He predicts China’s market, which has rallied sharply from its lows of July 2, will lose value over the next few months; but once it does, it will be “a really fabulous entry point.”

A long-time gold bull, Lamoureux is more cautious these days. Contrary to popular belief -- and that of recent guest David Rosenberg -- his work shows “global liquidity is contracting fast” – a very bearish sign for gold prices, which Lamoureux says have rallied because of fear of global instability not inflation.

JT

The bottomline is that fading the DEFLATIONARY and DOUBLE-DIP crowd has been the profitable trade.

The Euro is not down at 118 as all of the Bears had predicted given the crisis overseas... It's at 131.50 today.

That's a FACT.

Michael

I've posted on many many occasions here about how the coal, iron ore, and copper stocks have been bottoming over the last couple of months, and are now breaking-out on the upside and staying above all important moving averages... but people seem to be more obsessed with posting articles about how GDP is slowing, the stimulus is over, the unemployment rate is horrible, housing sucks, etc.

If you actually trade the markets every day, you are well aware that copper is now at $3.35 and stocks like FCX or CLF or WLT have put in huge bottoms.

Trade what you see.
Not what you hope.

Hockthefarm

August is 3rd best month over last 10 years:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=101398

Hock

yelnick

wave, thanks for the proper date! I will change the post

yelnick

Dr Bubb, I am not an astrology fan, and think that any August drop will be coincidental with the Cardinal Climax, but I do urge readers to go outside at night and see the striking formation in the sky in the evening.

Experience the Climax away from the computer screen:
- Venus is bright and just to the left of it are Saturn and Mars. Mercury is nearby but close to the setting Sun and hard to see.
- Jupiter is bright 180 degrees the other way and nearby but not visible Neptune and Uranus. Pluto is a bit farther away

Venus sets in the West in the early evening and the other clump of planets rise in the East as the evening rolls forward.

JT

"You want to judge me?
That is rather presumptious. I think you had better know a bit more before toy start laying assumptions on other people." ---Dr. Bubb

Yeah, I'm judging you by your claim that one has to give Arch Crawford ALL THE WAY till November before judging he and his "Cardinal Climax" to be null and void.

Given such an absurd "window" of time, it is clear to me that you are not a TRADER. No trader would have such a time horizon for such a call on the market to be deemed correct/invalid.

Period.

da bear

From the July 2nd lows, the DOW has rallied off 9,600 in a great looking Elliott Wave pattern. the wave 3 of this 'e' wave went from about 9,800 to 10,400, then the wave 4 to 10,070. Since then wave 5 of 'e' has been in force. The current rally off 10,350 has been 'v' of 5 of 'e'.

The Elliott Wave channel is pointing to a top around 10,850. It should do so rather soon.


da bear

da bear

I have been calling for DOW 10,666 for awhile now.
Today's high was 10,670.44.
The EWFF for August mentioned how the stock market topped on August 7, 1997 before a fall swoon. Yelnick's turn date is August 7th. 13 years from that 1997 date.
In 1997 and 1998 the SP 500 and the DJIA formed the left shoulder of the very large double head and shoulder top formation. The right shoulder of this very large pattern is currently coming into form. The left shoulder looks very skinny, so this right one could also be skinny.

here is a chart of what I am looking at as the wave '5' of wave 'e'. Notice the solid 5 wave advance coming into form. Furthermore there is a nice 'v' of 5 of 'e' taking shape with today's spike (counted from the 10,350 low). This is showing that all we need now is a small dip or sideways action, then a final push higher to just over 10,750.

link: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=djia&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=1643&style=320&time=18&freq=7&nosettings=1&rand=5361&mocktick=1&rand=8842


da bear

yelnick

da bear, I am with you on this count. It is the same in the cash S&P, which I read as not breaking into the wave 2 but hitting the top of it. It must take a microscope to find an overlap. (The es is different, but then again ewave patterns are less compelling in the futures since they expire in time unlike the cash index.)

upstart

Wave Rust,

Look how well the "Long before July 4" worked, from your four part axiom.

Wave Rust

upstart
wasnt that a sell before memorial day too? ,,, can't remember.

i thought april was going to a 3 not the 5, which really sucked and made me much less bullish for the period after labor day.

i dont think this pig can be saved with new highs above the april '10 highs.

but i could be all wrong too.

wave rust

overbought here near the close, and needs a rest for a few hours ,,,, maybe just sideways

Hockthefarm

da bear / Yelnick:

This may dove tail with the Aug 7th top:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-02/time-to-buy-dollars-as-europe-reaches-austerity-limit.html?campaign_id=investing_related

H

upstart

Yes, Wave, you had (I think it was you) long at Easter, out or short by Memorial Day, long before July 4, and short by Labor Day.

Wave Rust

yeah upstart
that was it

so far, not real bad and not too good. good enough for a trader though.

august 26th is a real crazy date, it has 2 variables: either the high or the first break down low.

maybe somebody else has noticed the unprecedented (in my experience) movement of indices in synchrony. Very weird and leads a trader like me to think that a huge move higher, percentagewise, is afoot. But that will precede a long seemingly normal synchronized global decline of market indices.

IMO, the 'tell' for the top will be Treas. rates at a roughly 50% retrace, say TNX at 3.75, from current triple bottom lows.

from the june 2008 high, the rate decline was the sentinel for what was to come. the 9/17/08 break of tnx 3.5 may be the analog to look for between Aug 20th and labor day.

the socialist Federal govt is running out of other people's money(yelnick), and all they can print.

Nobody can say Barry Bagahammers didn't tell you what he was going to do in the 2008 campaign! He didn't call it socialism or centralized government control of your life. But he told us exactly what he was going to do.

a real estate bottom is probably a return to 2002 prices. bank REO selling will be a good indicator for the local market. might have to wait for the end of Barry's second term though.

wave rust

twitter.com/DrBubb

"Mr.Trader" JT,
I was merely reporting (accurately, I think) what Arch Crawford has said in various interviews.

Whether traders or investors can use that information in some way, is up to them.

I don't know how many millions you have made in your own trading activities over the years, but you may find that it is less than others whose techniques you dare to ridicule. To me, that shows a small minded, and inflexible approach. If that shoe fits, you've stuck your foot into it.

Hockthefarm

Is the RSI headed above 70?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p27776007172

Hock

OracleLurker

I closed out the last of my longs only to look at a chart of the TLT and realize I was a complete idiot for doing so.

twitter.com/DrBubb

Bearish indications are the action in SMH and in TLT
SMH : http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/9964/zzzzh.gif

These are not the sort of action you would see if stocks were making an important breakout.
Instead, the action fits well the "Big Tease" scenario that has been talk about on the Yelnick Blog for weeks.

DG

http://yfrog.com/5sspxaugust1p

I haven't had to change a single label on this chart in months. Either it's the right wave count (or very close to it) or I'm one lucky sumbitch. And, yes, I'm up very nicely over this time period. If this is right, and not just luck, we should top soon. The nature of the decline from that top, if it happens, will determine if this pattern was an Expanding Triangle, which seems most likely, given the Fib relationships and the fact that wave-.E is taking about the maximum time allowed, or is a Symmetrical (which, as I was reminded recently, is a fairly rare pattern to begin with, so should be a last resort as a hypothetical wave count). The time of wave-.E also argues against a Symmetrical because the time relationships between waves in one of those patterns is much more one of equality.

If it was an Expanding Triangle, that would imply that the drop from the high should be rather slow and, if we were to make a new low, it should take longer than the wave up from the July low.

As far as the "bigger picture", it's hard to say if the Expanding Triangle would be best as wave-b or wave-x of a pattern which began in late April. I kind of like the x-wave better at this point, because if it were a wave-b it probably would have retraced more of the initial drop from April's high to form the wave-b of a C-Failure Flat.

This, of course, all assumes that Neely's count isn't correct to begin with. Basically, all I'm certain of right now is that if your wave count has an Impulse in it, it's wrong.

Account Deleted

Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/08/dow-jones-analysis-after-closing-bell.html

Daniel  - Taz

hey DG

My diametric here in OZ remains valid as well.

We have almost finished wave-g higher. I would prefer the market to chew up a few more days but in the event it did not, I would still be happy with its timing aspects. If the market heads up more than 1% from here (my count blows up).

Like you I am not sure if the nasty downleg to follow is Wave-C or an X. if we get 15 to 20% downside inside a month, I will run with wave-C, otherwise it will be an X.

Will be an interesting few days.

Taz

DG

Will be an interesting few days.

Taz

Shaping up to be! It's always interesting when the potential for a large pattern to end comes around.

OracleLurker

I don't know much about EWT but i know a little something about cycles and would say that IF (big if) the E on DG's chart actually finished today it could very well be followed by an F and G, where F will take out the recent low at 1088 and G would then reverse back up to today's high or slightly higher resulting in an epic bull trap. Need to see the F play out before getting too excited about it though.

Daniel  - Taz

Yes it will :)

US 10-years are on our side.

High-yield corporates suggest otherwise.

I have been also keeping a close eye on the astro here as well. My view is that it supports an increase in volatility, not necessarily a crash. Which does lend credence to an X

Mr. Panic

Exhaustion gaps everywhere today. Fcx gaps up to its 200 day average; the currency etfs look like they put in terminal moves with the Australian currency etf nearly rallying back to its old high while FXC puts in a gap up doji. The Euro has now put in a mini fractal of the stock markets plunge in Sept 2008 down to its March 2009 low and subsequent rally up to April 2010 high from the plunge in May with its subsequent rally to 1.31 back to the ledge where its vertical meltdown started in May. There is some more room to run for the Euro possible but its daily and 60 min charts are supremely overextended and exhausted.
In a bigger picture view, the SP and other averages have rallied up to the 20 week moving average which has now flattened. The 20 week average repelled the averages the first time in June. A 67 trading day cycle was due on Friday and this cycle might have extended to today so that the big boys could discredit Arch Crawford's Mars-Uranus crash cycle. But we still have important weekly cycles that indicate that a reversal occurs this week.

Nasdaq did not finish at its high of the day and didn't make a new high above last week's high while the Russell 2000 broke down midday while the other average's still flatlined at their highs. And thanks Dr. Bubb for the $sox info..that is the most incriminating of the averages. TLT and other bonds/ETFS are still gradually climbing and not breaking down as one would expect with a new bull move.

Ticker sense latest poll of bloggers bulls 50% bears approx. 15%.

Aunty Michaela

"I've posted on many many occasions here about how the coal, iron ore, and copper stocks have been bottoming over the last couple of months, and are now breaking-out on the upside and staying above all important moving averages... "

Actually, you posted many times that they were breaking out when they had yet to cross important downtrends or make new highs. The posts were factually wrong. The breakouts didn't come until the last two weeks.

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