Critical Retest Underway - Market is Threatening to Bifurcate Up

In the last three days the market has followed a typical pattern: run up into FOMC and then fade after. (You can really see this head fake over in the bond market.) On Monday we closed above Sp1128 for the first time since last May, and stayed above yesterday, but today have come down to 1132 twice, so a retest is on. For Fractal Finance, if this is a False Break, it needs to come back to close below 1128 pretty quickly, preferably by my turn date of Sep23 (tomorrow). Otherwise, unlike with orthodox wave theory, the pattern suggest a bifurcation upwards. Carl Futia provides some guidance (1174 in the short run, 1250 thereafter):

Comments

[Chuang Tzu]

McLaren saying September 30 is best Gann time cycle that could complete Neely's wave 1 of C

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/242/1/September-17-2010-CNBC-Europe-Report/Page1.html

[Chuang Tzu]

Both McLaren AND Neely NAILED that August 31 low...

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=17757

[Hockthefarm]

http://www.benzinga.com/10/09/481418/forecasting-the-s-p-500-using-the-vix

Hock

[betterdays]

Has Hank thrown in - the towel for the 700pt decline this week ?

[Hockthefarm]

Well, well!

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/535438/Bulls-Go-to-Extremes%3A-Dont-Buy-the-%22Breakout%22%2C-Sell-It%2C-Prechter-Says

Hock

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Hank is still adding to his shorts. Only thing is, what he's putting in them is kind of smelly. (gik....gik)

[vipul garg]

oil has almost seen the low.
nasdaq is the most bullish.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Seem to be seeing some 'extremes' in the metals.

Neo-Mamma

[da bear]

Since the early February lows, GLD and SLV have nearly put in five full waves.
Thought that that was interesting.

da bear

[Sherman "double long" McCoy]

Bifurcate Up? Aren't you trying to say, "I was bearish and wrong"?

[yelnick]

Sheeeerman, I follow what the market says .. if we bifurcate out, my bearish view was wrong. But we are not there yet ... tomorrow or friday may tell.

[JT]

What are the odds that Hochberg will say today that THE TOP was yesterday's high?

:)

[yelnick]

JT, pretty low I would say - they leave open a final spurt to 1153-8 area. 1158 of course is the C=A level, and 1153 is the upper trendline of this zigzag up. The action however is not in equities, it is in the forex pits. The USD is reacting badly to all this blather of QE2. The AUD may soon get to 98c, within spittin' distance of parity.

[Paul]

I wonder what's Hochberg's count for gold? Is he still saying it's is in a B Wave? He's gotta be the biggest turd when it comes to gold, silver, and the dollar.

[yelnick]

Paul, whenever a count keeps going, it usually means the purported top was only the top of wave 3, not wave 5. This is of course one of the most disconcerting (annoying!) aspects of wave theory, and one of the reasons I am testing Fractal Finance. So they now have us in wave 5 of 5. It really comes down to the USD breaking down, or not. If it continues to fall, a whole new set of macro issues will emerge,, and gold will continue merrily upwards.

[Paul]

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That, I agree with.