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« Big Bond Bubble Beckons Bears, Buries Treasuries, And Busts Fixed Income Investors | Main | Market is in a Thrust Out of a Running Triangle »

Tuesday, September 14, 2010


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"A triple top will signal a reversal down"

this is wrong by folklore.

sell double tops and buy triple tops, or third time through
buy double bottoms and sell triple bottoms, or third time through



p.s. - Neely has nailed this move


What is Neely's count? This is a final C wave up to new highs? (above the April high?)

I am pretty sure that this move since April has been a high level consolidation before we move higher, based on the lack of indictors present at bull market tops

Account Deleted

Dow Jones futures before opening bell



don't know this count per se. he doesn't use traditional ew counts.
but he had a buy for his subs at the last low, and caught this entire move from 1040. actual buy was 1032-ish.


To guard against another flash Fat Finger/fist, one may consider buying TLT and set a laddered limit sell price 10%+ above its current price.


The alleged downtrend "line" off the April and August highs in the S&P chart above is virtually meaningless. I'm not sure what technical analysis class that the person who drew that line took, but they must have failed miserably.

Mamma Boom Boom

>Interesting is that Carl Futia, who uses a variant of the box or plateau approach, expects the market to run into the 1127 area and hit resistance. He then expects a break down followed by a move up towards 1300.<

I find that quite feasible.

Bull trade

"Biased" is correct.

Gann says after a triple top, wait and buy the fourth time through which looks like sometime November if market stalls out here and bottoms near the next Hurst cycle low which is due late September,

Gann Rule 4: Fourth time at the same level.

Fourth time through a level of support or resistance is powerful and one should go with the direction of the professionals.

Bulls should wait paitiently for the late September buy spot.

Bull trade


Even though market may not break through the triple top until October/November and give an official Gann buy signal, an aggressive trader may try and pick off the late September Hurst low or an early October four year cycle low in anticipation for the big break higher which looks to be above SPX 1300.


Biased, EN - Neely has us in a wave C from the 1040 level. Prior to that he had a B wave triangle off the April top, which morphed into a double flat. The A wave went from the Feb 2010 low to the April high. Jan-Feb was an X. His C wave should get to 1150 level and could breach 1220, but he has not been definitive about targets. What is key right now is that the speed of the rise has to be faster than the Jul2 to Aug9 move, which means it should breach 1160 before Oct 10.

Bull trade

Roger, if your lucky, you may have one more time to cover your shorts (around SPX 1080)



p.s. - Neely has nailed this move

Yes he has. Got me in at the bottom tick!



what's even better than catching the bottom tick is that he had his subs standing aside during the whole May-Aug whipsaw

Who is right: the stock market or the bond market?

For years, Stocks and 10yr. Rates (TNX) have been correlated

But what has happened recently is, a huge gap has opened up between them.

It is as if the bond market is (still) anticipating a double dip, and the stock market has decided that will not happen.

Stocks have normally caught up with bond yields, as the chart shows.

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