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« Market is Thrusting Out of the Triangle (And Friday Could Be Wild) | Main | Bears Pushed to the Edge »

Monday, September 20, 2010

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Wave Rust

OMG Prechter farts a 7 yr cycle and everybody will immediately chirp, "Excuse him please."

All enablers please take one step forward.

How long before somebody calls 18 months of straight up and nearly doubling ,,,, a bull market?

anybody?

wave rust

Mr. Partridge

"How long before somebody calls 18 months of straight up and nearly doubling ,,,, a bull market?"

Why, it's a bull market!

bob m

Has Prechter closed his short then 200% shorts from ages ago? Almost seems like he is about to ADD to the position.

Account Deleted

Dow Jones futures before opening bell

New to Markets

How can Prechter add to a 200% short position? Isn't 200 the limit? In fact, don't you have to keep paying interest on it?

Would you receive margin calls on it???

Neely fan

C-wave! Shortsqueeze!

Neely predicted this c-wave way way back.

Mamma Boom Boom

Breakout?
No doubt!

JT

And now back to REALITY Yelnick...

Dow Jones +87 and SPX +9

jim

market overbought ???? 1134 ha ha ha

Bob the Preacher

In 1994 Prechter said in an interview with Barrons (Dow was roughly 3500) that if the Dow ever broke above 4000, he didnt know what he was talking about and to never listen to him again.

In 2006 Prechter sent out a special 26 year bulletin Gold made major peak at $600 and would crash

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2006/04/more_breaking_n.html

In 2010 Prechter said Dow will fall to 1000

http://www.businessinsider.com/prechter-says-dow-will-fall-to-1000-2010-7

Prechter was right in 1994, Dow went above 4000 which means he doesnt know and dont listen to him again.

JohnEBGoode

Are all bulls aboard? Above 1139.90 is the breakout level. Don't party too soon.

Tony

ALL ABOARDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!

TRAIN LEAVING THE STATION, MAY SEE A FLASH CRASH ON THE UPSIDE

ITS GOING TO TAKE A 1000 POINT ONE DAY UP DAY IN THE DOW TO CONVINCE THESE LOSER BEARS THAT WE'RE IN A BULL MARKET

cribrange

"The NEoWave Equity Fund (NEF) closely tracks trades given in this section. Following today’s Emergency report, the NEF exited its Long SPY with everyone else (the fill was 112.68,which gave us a 1.10% return). Since this trade only lasted a few weeks, that equates to a 19% annual interest rate on capital! Not bad in this economy."

So when there has been a -1% stop loss in a couple of days over the past year and a bit, why don't I get the annualized equivalent loss? Again, Mr Neely, be humble. You have a lot to be humble about, you have a lot of errors to compensate for. Letting all of us retards know what a 1.1% return in a few weeks represents on an annual basis, attempting to tout your genius timing techniques is just poor form.


"so, we cleared 90 points or $4,500 per contract"

The oldest trick in the book. When you want to sell a product, talk money. When you don't want the attention, omit the dollar loss you sustained.

I am losing all respect that I had built up over the years. And this even after a profitable trade.

Cribrange.


Mamma Boom Boom

Next target, 1151.

Neo-Mamma

JohnEBGoode

Chips, brokers, and oil not setting new highs. Not a good sign for market leaders.

WTF?

:::::The 7-yr cycle is still in the uptrend part (first 3.5 years) since March 2009, or 2009.2, and should head to its next peak in 2012.7, or August 2012

Prechter is now bullish into 2012? LOL! WTF?

WTF?

http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/07/10/is-elliott-wave-theory-high-priest-robert-prechter-certifiably-insane/

Account Deleted

S&P 500 futures trading above resistance line: CLICK HERE

GlennLoserNeely

"Since this trade only lasted a few weeks, that equates to a 19% annual interest rate on capital! Not bad in this economy."

How pathetic is that???
My Dad must be getting really desperate!

Chabazite

Final Pop Up today / tomorrow
-----------------------------
This it Hank?

Bird

I think I am looking to be a loser bear sometime around now. 1151 could work for me. But so could 1142-3. Neither is a requirement tho because it could just be a time thing and not a time and price thing. I would like to be a smart loser bear and wait for at least some kind of a confirmation before launching myself into the abyss of total loserdom.

Chartist

Andre has a 9 month/17 week cycle low hitting late October - charts in the link

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18152/turning-points

K.D.

And while it's been a bull market since early 2009, all the bears have grown slim and thin on the meager EW honey.
And when they finally dare to tip their precious claws into the wild streams of the stock market, it will highly probably
signal The Mother of All P3's.
Forget the DOW, forget S&P, emerging markets has been great fun.
Time to throw away all your fancy books and theories, guys.
K.D.

Dsquare

DG, in Neowave, do you know if wave-e take longer in time than wave-c in a contracting triangle?

Dsquare

That should be: if wave-e can take longer.

Bob

Whatever happened to Prechters Elliott Wave ETF with XShares LLC?

An ETF based on the STU cant wait LOL!

Mamma Boom Boom

I don't know why people refuse to pay attention to Neo-Mamma. Not that I care.

Hank, you adding to shorts with both hands? Or is your stomach upset?

Bird

Right about now would be perfect.

Mamma Boom Boom

Chugga Chugga.... Chugga Chugga.... Chugga Chugga.... Chugga Chugga.. Toot, Toot!

Will it be 'Ream & Scream' or 'Ram & Cram'?

Wave Rust

Andre has a 9 month/17 week cycle low hitting late October - charts in the link
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18152/turning-points
Posted by: Chartist


That guy has been a joke for so years. if there is a low in October it will likely be at around spx 1200.

some bloggers were calling for spx 850 and 950 last week. what did these people miss in Technical Analysis 101?

Lesson 1 - higher highs and higher lows equals bullish trend
Lesson 2 - corrections happen. and they ususally end in flat and choppy trading
Lesson 3 - buy/sell divergences, whether they are price or volume divergences, or both
Lesson 4 - KISS - there is nothing new under the sun. no new indicator, nada.

everybody has been discussing for weeks 'the double bottom' , 'the triple bottom' ,,,,

so learn this ,,,, if everybody is fretting about double bottoms and triple bottoms, you better be looking the other way ,,,, as in, when is that resistance going break because what everybody is yapping about is wrong.

I hope you get it.

my johnson has disappeared, molecool. still short?

as I said, flash crash up!!! too obvious, too freaking easy.

wave rust

Mamma Boom Boom

As I've mentioned before, my methods are simple: I COUNT THE WAVES.

You see, I have a large window in my office. And, all day long people go by and wave to me. I have learned to determine if these waves are positive or negative. Then, I record that information on a spreadsheet, and apply a complicated mathematical formula to it. The results allow me to predict the market direction, with magnitude. I know, it sounds very complicated, but it's not.

As Neely and Prechter have always said, "It's in the waves".


True story.

Neo-Mamma

molecool

Wave rust: I have been long for quite a while - drop by once in a while to actually read my work. I don't mind being criticized when I'm wrong but I have been warning my readers of various bear traps for over a year now.

Now what have YOU done? Asshat...

Mamma Boom Boom

Also, one of my 'meter-readings' broke above the 200 day MA, today.

Neo-Mamma

CEOTrader

The scenario you depict is very close to my interpretation. The fat fingers crash is A, we are now carving the final c of B, and soon we'll crash in 5 waves for C.
The SP500 overhead resistance line bridging the Oct 2007 top to the April 2010 top will be the stopping point for this recent rally.
Not much more to go.

Great job Yelnik!

BullandBear

"I have been long for quite a while - drop by once in a while to actually read my work. I don't mind being criticized when I'm wrong but I have been warning my readers of various bear traps for over a year now." - molecool

Is that why you've banned just about any BULLISH poster over this past Summer???

Stop the BS dude.
Get real!


BullandBear

"I have been long for quite a while - drop by once in a while to actually read my work. I don't mind being criticized when I'm wrong but I have been warning my readers of various bear traps for over a year now." - molecool

Is that why you've banned just about any BULLISH poster over this past Summer???

Stop the BS dude.
Get real!


molecool

I just ban asshats, bnb ...

BTW, you can call me 'Mole' or 'sir'.

BullandBear

No, in my opinion you run a PERMA-BEAR blog just like Daneric, Binve, and David at "Trading to Win (Lose)".

Everyone loves to drink from the same P3 "Kool-Aid".
Been working like a charm, eh?
Can you say "Jonestown"???

LOL!


Zendo

There is no need for any EW or analysis, every time when the market goes sideway for awhile, this blog will show up with title like, is the top going to be in, sentiment is back, its going to fall off the cliff? I bet if someone match the bearish title of this blog against the chart of SPX, you will see the bearish posting here indeed act as a contrarian indicator.

DW

Too many new bulls now out there!

Watch for quick mini correction at any time now into October to shake out all these new bulls.

Zendo

For those bears who still hope for SPX 850-900, a 20%+ correction that will go into October (within next 5 weeks) would be really disappointed.

yelnick

Zendo, go back and look. Especially look at June 2007, Feb 2009, Jun 2009 (where I said Neely's top call was premature) and May 2010 (where I doubted their top call at first). The one I got wrong was to repeat Prechter's 200% short call in Aug 2009. Then scan the posts in June, where I said a Big Tease back to 1150 was most likely.

Zendo

Yelnick, I agree your post is not totally about your personal view, I have to thank you for bringing these EW guru view for me to observe, yet somehow when you talk about their opinion on the top of your blog, it act as a pretty good contrarian indicators, maybe its more than just coincidence?

yelnick

Zendo, yes, I try to report a consensus view of several pundits, and all the bears were too eager for the Hope Rally to end. Sometimes I chime in, such as Nov 20, 2008, with a call (then it was to buy). In general the market is flat to up 80% of the time, so bullish commentators are randomly right 4x more than bears, putting a premium on bearish calls. The ceaseless and somewhat senseless piling on to bear mistakes is understandable but intellectually shallow. Funny how bullish mistakes get lost in the noise. Fact is this market has not moved much for almost a year.

The Trading Range

Fact is this market has not moved much for almost a year.

So true, Yelnick. So true.

betterdays

anybody see hank ? crash it up

DG

DG, in Neowave, do you know if wave-e take longer in time than wave-c in a contracting triangle?

Posted by: Dsquare | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 11:30 AM

Hi Dsquare,

Neely says that wave-d can take longer than wave-c and wave-e can take longer than wave-d, so I assume that means the answer is yes.

I think that this is more common when the Triangle is a Non-Limiting Triangle and wave-e itself is a Triangle right into the apex.

Dsquare

Thanks DG. I wasn't sure if after his book was written and with new triangle patterns (ie. neutral triangles/reverse alternation discovery) that he said specifically about c and e (perhaps in relation to a and c). I've been counting a large contracting, reverse alternation, triangle on the HUI for what I assume is B of larger degree E where wave-a is complex and takes more time than wave-c, wave-c is simple, and now I'm left counting a complex e wave longer in time than c. Thought I should check with you as c will be the shortest in time. There may be another possibility for wave B but I'd need to change my count on wave A and wave-a of B.

Zendo

Yelnick, despite the bull bear opinion on the equity market, anecdotal evidence from Asian manufacturers are doing well and their orders are improving. Although the visibility on US consumers to spend is quite negative as far as the US media are concerned, but the truth is the manufacturers from the east have opposing reality, ie: the US consumer is still spend and not de-levering as reported.

If Prechter has his timing right, and the next low is 2016.5, then experience tells us the high usually occurs in the last 2 years before the low, therefore we'll have 4-5 years to see this run up, maybe by early 2015 we will see the high?

Unless there is some exogenous event, like a war, or dollar/treasury crash trigger by another round of QE, or 2012 apocalypse, the market seems holding up quite well...

I think most bear try to pick the top and most bull try to buy a bottom.... and for me I hope for a massive sell off to buy more into emerging market.


Perigee

Yelnick

The decennial pattern composite cycle has nailed 2010 so far, forecasting a flat to negative market for 2010 - for such a simple tool it has worked far better from a simple pattern perspective than most EW'ers. For those interested it is suggesting some sort of peak is due on 22nd/23rd - this decline (which my pattern is showing should last until at least late October) should launch a very powerful run up into April-June 2011.

Of course, the uncanny accuracy so far in 2010 suggests the pattern is due to break at some point!

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