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« Fractal Finance Suggests the Summer Rally is Over | Main | The Election Rally May Be On »

Friday, September 24, 2010

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Roger D.

Historically October is always a bad month and this time will be bad in spades as they sell the earnings with gusto. With parabolicas everywhere,look for a final push up into the belly of the April head. after this failure I would expect a plunge greater than the May flash crash to kick off the start of the great decline.a panic of biblical proportions.

See ya at SPX 500.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/889334ca-7e3a-4b98-b10b-3455f1e2a3fc

DG

While it's obvious that the market has done some things that seem to confirm Neely's count, when I go back and look at the shorter-term structures of those c-waves in Neely's Flats, I don't find they conform to the Impulse structure rules, so I still think it's a bunch of :3s. That doesn't mean we can't make new highs.

I also don't like the fact that the time taken by the first Flat is so short compared to the time taken by the subsequent x-wave and second Flat.

His count is certainly better than the stuff others are pumping out, but I'm not sure it even fits his own rules.

Whitebear

DG, in your opinion, are we still in a range-bound market? Do you think the market will go straight to 1170 and then 1200. Or do you think it will go down to below 1100 and then up again in a range-bound market? Thanks.

dee

"...See ya at SPX 500. Roger D."

Yes, and i want you to be fully loaded on the short side, and don't cover till you reached your target..
you will be so rich, and forever grateful to pretcher fot that

let me guess.. you are already fully short from the july 09 inverse head and shoulder
right?

hold on to you position.. persist, and don't ever miss a copy of your favourite financial forecast newsletter

LabelsFools

We are heading to 1300 in this leg. After that the market will trade range between 1130 and 1300 for two years.

DG

Whitebear,

The range we've been in since June might be dead, but the larger range since April still intact. Which would mean that we'd be heading toward the top of it. How we got there, in terms of the reaction to 1170, is DEFINITELY uncertain. Anyone who tells you otherwise is full of it.

Right now, though, I think the riskier assumption is that we go back down to the bottom of the range. Not that it's impossible, it just seems less likely.

Paul

Did anyone see any of videos Prechter released on his "Free" Updates today?

Yahoo! Finance: Prechter on Market Rally
Ominous Pattern in the DJIA
Investing in Extreme Markets

Michael

Thanks for the excellent summary Yelnick.

Looks like one of my "boys" here (JT) in our trading group came across a nice little "nugget". We shall see if that 78% retracement to 1174 SPX works out or not.
Have a great weekend everybody!

Edwin

The trend is up and that is all you need to know for now....forget about all the bias and one man opinion.

The ghost of Mr. Partridge told me last night in my sweet dream....so you have got to hold your (long) line until it fails.

Roger D.

This market is on fumes here.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/73eaaff3-5615-4768-acb4-05a902c4c999

MT

Hi Yelnick. Bears get frustrated and bulls get nervous and that means reversal time. I think this one is going to make it:

http://i366.photobucket.com/albums/oo106/mtcharts/spxsep.jpg

p.s, it's not an abc 3-3-5 zigzag, but an abc 3-3-5 flat

vipul garg

if spx doesnt come down to 1125 in next couple of days, its heading for 1200+ non stop.
in any case it is heading for 1375.

PL

DG

What's your email address?

Thanks

DG

PL,

neowavetrader at gmail dot com

Mamma Boom Boom

>Punchline: we may exceed the April highs in late 2010 or early 2011.<

It takes some people a while to figure it out. I've been whistling this tune since late May.

Neo-Mamma

Account Deleted

DG !!

Yes becos Neely often says that as the Name Suggests NEUTRAL TRiangle has very limited Post thrust Effect.So I thought may a 5th extension is not possible if we have a fourth wave Neutral Triangle.For a big rally in the 5 th Wave it should require an explosive pattern in the fourth to give it that kind of a thrust.
What do u think.Is it a correct way of thinking

Regards
VB

DG

VB,

In my discussions with Neely about this particular topic (the relationship of two waves side by side when one ends a pattern), he has told me that the logical relationship plays itself out in the first wave of the next pattern. So, in your example, I could see making a case that the first wave of the 5th Extension would not be the extended wave and that would fit the logical implications of the Neutral Triangle.

The example I went back and forth with Neely on was the weakness implied by his ending the bull market from 2003 to 2007 in the Fall of 2008, with the end of his Diametric pattern (as seen on his Monthly charts). I asked him if the weakness implied by ending at such a lower high meant that the entire pattern to follow it would have to be of at least the same "end-to-end" size as the bull market, only in the bearish direction. His response was that the weakness implied in the ending of the bull at the lower high was "fulfilled" by the extreme weakness of wave-A from September 2008 to March 2009, by its breaking the 2002 low.

So, I think the situation you describe is directly analogous, hence my original answer that it could, with the additional qualification that I can see a case for not allowing the 1st wave to be the extended wave in that scenario.

Account Deleted

Thanks DG !!

YOur concepts are way to clear.Always refreshing to interact with u.


Regards
VB

Account Deleted

Thanks DG !!

YOur concepts are way too clear.Always refreshing to interact with u.


Regards
VB

Roger D.

The DAX has the clearest pattern and the top is almost complete. Now looks to be in the final thrust towards 6400 to finish this rare pattern.


Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/24ca9f31-d349-41ae-905b-970fd4c12996

Rodney Lewis

If you use Suze Orman and Roger Prechter you will probably stay ahead of the next leg of this horrible bear. You might want to toss in a dash of McLaren, too. He is usually excellent.

Gann Cycles and candle-counting have not been effective lately. Suggest Arch Crawford planetary cycles are in remission.

233 Fibonacci days left and then BAMMO!

C Tzu

I would expect a plunge greater than the May flash crash to kick off the start of the great decline.a panic of biblical proportions. See ya at SPX 500. - Roger D.

Dont forgot to use stops just in case SPX goes to 1350 first

DG

Here's an illustration of a count I think is more feasible than Neely's current count, at least from the August low.

http://yfrog.com/naspxdailyseptember1p

DG

Thanks DG !!

YOur concepts are way too clear.Always refreshing to interact with u.


Regards
VB

You're welcome and thank you for the compliment.

Roger D.

"Dont forgot to use stops just in case SPX goes to 1350 first" yeh baby!!!

Might get a few popped stops on the upside as the marke makes the final top in the next 3 or 4 days. After that it's one big ripppp down as stops are popped on the downside.

Roger D.

DG

"Dont forgot to use stops just in case SPX goes to 1350 first" yeh baby!!!

What do stops matter when you're not actually trading?

Chuang Tzu

Might get a few popped stops on the upside as the marke makes the final top in the next 3 or 4 days. After that it's one big ripppp down

SPX 1170 is the 75% retracement and IDEAL stopping point for this rally sometime within 4-6 trading days.

Click on this chart thumbnail for details...

All eyes on SPX 1170 +/-

Roger D.

Hello DG,

Your'e right I don't trade. I never said I did,not the way you and other's do.

Have a great day.

Roger D.

________________________________________________________

Chinamart has been in a indescision pattern for 10+ years. I call it crappus interruptus courtesy of Messrs Greenspan and Bernanke. Time is about up.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/9b1f1e7f-cf59-498f-86ee-964032ac8f2c

Chuang Tzu

Pitchfork resistance at SPX 1170

Did I mention watch SPX 1170? :)

DG

Hello DG,

Your'e right I don't trade. I never said I did,not the way you and other's do.

Have a great day.

Roger D.

None of what you say adds up logically. You say you don't trade frequently, but you post 10 charts a day when you're here and are constantly talking about a market disaster about to strike within a few days.

If you're not trading on that perspective, you must have one hell of a lot of self-control. To see the markets about to imminently reverse for a 50-60-70% haircut to the downside and NOT trade it? The concept of that is completely illogical, not just to me, but to anyone with a brain.

So, that only leaves the conclusion that you are either not trading at all or you are losing money on all your top calls. No other logical alternative exists. Therefore, you have at least some obligation to come clean about the fact that you clearly don't know what you're doing, yet act as if you do.

yelnick

MT, the thrust up at the end has the feel of a fifth wave. And I do think it is a bit difficult to make the Jul2-Sep24 move a zigzag as the first wave counts easily as a "3" with en ED in the C wave. So it is plausible. My main concern is over how to count the drop into Jul2. JT wants it to be an LD, but it doesn't fit (doesn't converge enough). Most folks end the drop at May25, which works. It probably doesn't matter for your count to be correct, since after May25 we can count the rise you label as B as a flat all by itself, and then the drop to Jul2 is an X wave connecting two flats, ending in the same wave place as you do.

ceotrader

I think we have a big move coming up on Thursday with GDP and jobless claims.
If volatility decreases significantly before Thursday, I'll probably buy a strangle at noon Wednesday.

Grand

where was Neely when I was already contemplating this back in Mar this past year, albeit with some adjustments a few months later?

http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2010/03/road-to-spx-1228.html

Rodney Lewis

Check out Suze Orman and Hochberg's latest. MANDATORY READING.

usdollar

We have seen an elongated flat up, B, reversal down on its way C wave. Crash starting from Oct 20.

Taz

"I also don't like the fact that the time taken by the first Flat is so short compared to the time taken by the subsequent x-wave and second Flat."

I might be missing something but I can't see how we bottomed here in OZ around the same time. The only think i can think of is a flat with wave-c down to come, but that means wave-b retraced wave-a in slightly less time. Not sure if this is possible under NEoWave even if wave-b hits a new high?

I am still reluctant to give up the idea that a diametric completed here in OZ (the idea of a large flat or CT off the top don't adhere to Neely insights I believe) in August given the market's behaviour. Now if a diametric did top in August and what we are seeing is an X playing out via a flat, then wave-c down must bottom before end of october. I know Eric Hadik has 22-24 oct down as a potential low.

Taz

The idea of a bottom before end of oct assumes Friday move in US equities was a head fake given bearish divergance in the MOsc.

KRG

"where was Neely when I was already contemplating this back in Mar this past year, albeit with some adjustments a few months later?" - Grand

He was in hiding from GLN and must now be kicking himself for not seeing such "grandly" subtle patterns. Having established that, now let us hope that he will try to pull up his socks in future...

DG

The only think i can think of is a flat with wave-c down to come, but that means wave-b retraced wave-a in slightly less time. Not sure if this is possible under NEoWave even if wave-b hits a new high?

At best, it would be rare. In MEW, in 11-11, Neely says that wave-b will be the most time consuming wave "the majority" of the time, so it wouldn't be impossible, just unlikely.

Say, if you could either post or send me a chart of your latest labeling of the Australian index, that would be helpful to me in understanding the possible divergences in pattern. I just don't follow that index enough to have a good visualization of what it's been doing.

Account Deleted

S&P 500 Futures before opening bell

da bear

I don't know if anyone cares, but SLV has completed a full five waves off its early February low.

link: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=slv&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=2305869&style=320&time=8&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=934&mocktick=1&rand=1776

da bear

Chuang Tzu

This mornings equity weakness is first 3/4 day low off last weeks 5 week cycle low.

Staying long here, stocks are getting ready to lift off and sail into the 20 week high due 9/30 thru 10/6

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