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« Is QE2 About to Launch? | Main | Why VCs Are Bidding Up SuperAngel Deals »

Wednesday, September 29, 2010


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S&P 500 Futures before opening bell


S&P 500 Futures before opening bell

Posted by: Chartanalyst | Wednesday, Septe



This is to continue the previous thread regarding the HK/China real estate puzzle.

I can't offer any concrete evidence as to why I said "HK people are borrowing to the brim" but anedoctal.

1. The HK Mortgage Corp is playing an increasing role now than in 1997. You can still borrow up to 95%, 90% for puchases in the normal category with insurance from HKMC.

2. I believe borrowing beyond 70% are prevalent among first time buyers and those transactions in the less prime locations such as Cheung Kwun O, Yuen Long, etc. Developers for those less prime locations offered very attractive terms for the first year.

3. One classmate friend of mine have just bought a flat, not a few years ago but now, citing how the low-interest environment and QE2 are here to stay. He is considering buying another flat for renting out as well

4. Did I just hear news just a few days ago from the HK Monetary Authority reporting how mortgage outstanding witnessed the fastest growth since 1997?

5. Don't forget that mortgages in HK can only be arranged at variable, which is close to 1% these days. Couple this fact with the mentality prevalent now that "You're missing the train if you don't buy now" leads me to a thinking that a lot of the new buyers in 2009, 2010 are borrowed to the brim.

I maybe wrong.

Chuang Tzu

Gann Rule of 4 on the 10 minute SPX chart? SPX 1150 has hit 3 times.

"Fourth time through a level of support or resistance is powerful and one should go with the direction of the professionals"

Mamma Boom Boom

Looks like this puppy is about to blow thru 1150, looking like Ole Faithful.

(anybody sick of that name, yet)


Fed-Ex (FDX) which is an economic bellweather has announced today that they are on track to returning to DOUBLE DIGIT profit margins in their Express delivery business, which were last seen before the Recession.

That's Bullish.


I know that this is beyond silliness, but I was just goofing around with my spx chart and started to see some reasons to think that the top could already, and just, be in. Here's why:

1. The big observation is that Jan 19, April 26 and right now is linked by 1.618 in time. This also relates to a circular formation based on the swing down from Jan 19, but you don't need to know about that in particular.

2. One reason to consider that fib time link is because the Jan 19 high and the current high are on the same horizontal line. Another reason is that it almost exactly links via fib expansion to the 2009 low (9/30 is exact).

3. This is more minor, but the first high of the current double top was also just over 144 hours up from the start of the move.

4. Don't know why but I kind of like the perfectly round number at 1150 which was hit today. And I doubly like it because, if you do square of nine stuff, the square root of the price of the April high minus 1, squared again, gives you that 1150 mark exactly.

So we're already at a pretty harmonic point. God knows the market will do what it wants, so it is wise not to expect anything. But I thought this all was pretty interesting.



Mamma Boom Boom

Bird, get right in there with a back-hoe and buy some puts.


Did. Know my ass may be handed to me. But did.

Mamma Boom Boom



Bird, this is pretty interesting! Zoran found really tight fib (and repetition series) relationships off bifurcation points, which are usually a week or so after the nominal tops. The Apr26 top bifurcated down in early May for example. I haven't run the math recently but some of the turn dates I played with (including Aug4) had such relationships among others. It suggests to me the break down will be in early Oct - next week.

Wave Rust

you got anything worth something? like what will be some trades for tomorrow?

contribute something. put downs and criticizing without alternate sugestions are just tinkling cymbals ,,,,, truly worthless, as you say.

how about a wave count, or some other trading gem.

wave rust

Pat Riley Operator #136

I don't know why anyone would do a movie about the Facebook founders. But Social Network was directed by the director of "The Catalyst"video so I am sure there is something ritualistic in there. Fitting that the releases of Wall Street 2 and Social Network would surround the demise of the tech bubble echo. Tomorrow is 396 trading days (66x6)from the March 2009 lows on 03-06-09 (look there is an encoded 9-30 in there---just noticed it). 309 tds from the July '09 pivot low which was 87 tds from the March 2009 lows.

Pat Riley Operator #136

I know that FDX cancelled its annual sales meeting in early 2008 when according to the mainstream media the economy was humming along fine and has never reinstated it. I was also told at that time that credit card company that provides cards for AXP had shut down its manufacturing plant. So until I hear from my source that FDX reinstates these sales meetings, I won't view FDX as an accurate economic bellwether.


Oh Michael - you really are a hypocrite.

You have spent the past several months giving a spray to anybody and everybody that has even remotely suggested there is a correlation between the economy and the market - and then you give us this little gem.

Fed-Ex (FDX) which is an economic bellweather has announced today that they are on track to returning to DOUBLE DIGIT profit margins in their Express delivery business, which were last seen before the Recession.

That's Bullish.

Posted by: Michael | Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 12:53 PM

I don't propose to stoop to your level by rudely responding to your statement - but you really do need to go out back and give yourself an uppercut.

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