3 Things to Know About 3DTV

Everywhere you looked at CES this year was filled with the promise of 3D. Sony made a huge commitment to 3D, betting the company it seems. Nine months later, it appears they will lose the bet. 3DTV is not ready for primetime. 

The experience is sketchy

The glasses are a big obstacle. What if you have only two or three at home, and you want a gang to see a football game? Much of the content at CES was repurposed 2D. It looked simply awful. I saw a demo by JVC touted as the first 4K HD experience. It was terrible, with blurs and artifacts. I saw Avatar at IMAX 3D before the show, and even there it took 30 mins into the movie for the mind to calm down and engage with the 3D experience. People with minor eye problems will probably get headaches. The TV experience required real 3D content and new polarized glasses with internal fast switching, and even that was not enough. I agree with this review of Samsung's demo:

Samsung’s glasses-ridden, 50-inch 3D LED LCD HDTV display did not impress us to the least bit. If you can imagine wavy and blurry vertical 3D lines popping at you and inflicting instant nausea and headaches, then you will understand the effect of the display. It was simply too harsh on the eyes and the image changed 3D perspective as the viewer walked left and right. Overall, the image was not natural but was rather cartoonish and definitely not ready for commercial use. 

The content is not here

I saw at least four demos (I lost count). They repeated much of the same content - an Avatar trailer, a Monsters vs Aliens trailer, a Brazilian soccer game, some ancient Kyoto buildings, and some underseas stuff. I had seen Coraline at home in 3D (using the old fashioned red/green glasses) and it was fine. We have had a few other cartoons - Polar Express, Up, Monsters vs Aliens. Hardly enough to fill a Sunday evening, let alone a 24/7 channel. 

Discovery Network announced such a channel, and DirecTv announced they would showcase 3D content, but I see it as a land grab. Early on in HD the inimitable Mark Cuban launched HDNet and grabbed a very valauble cable slot. Discovery need not have that many viewers to create a lot of value, if the 3D content eventually comes. So their announcement does not mean scads of new content.  

When HD launched, there was a lot of content: movies. In contrast there is very little 3D content. It will take years to build. Repurposed 2D movies do not look great. There is a lot of interest in trying this, especially for blockbusters like Lord of the Rings and Star Wars, but it is questionable how good the experience will be. Hollywood is enamored with 3D since they can charge higher ticket prices, and undoubtedly (for a while) higher DVD prices, so we will see some more 3D movies, but it will take a while to fill the library enough for a decent set of 3D channels.

ESPN announced a 3D feed for sporting events. This is more interesting, as football drove color TV and HD. We shall have to see what it looks like, and how much they can afford to broadcast. 

The fix is not that far away

There is a way to get 3D on TV without the funky glasses: use a type of fast phase shift to create the illusion of 3D depth by changing viewing angles. It works with a narrow viewing field today. One way to accomplish this is to shift the angle of backlighting quickly. You can see an example of this effect in the flashing picture, courtesy Jim Gasperini. 

In my conversations I found that it needs 9 fast-shifted views to encompass the broad field of viewing of a typical family room or bar. I suppose this can be thought of as a center view and then four slightly distorted views on each side. The distorted views do the same sort of thing that 'panorama' mode does to stretch 4:3 content across a 16:9 screen. The 9 views allows the off-angle viewing to maintain proper proportions in the center. 

I was told this is 5-7 years away. Apparently the speed needs to increase from (today) 240 fps to over 1080 fps (9 x 120). Or something like that. 

The HDTV industry had been peddling LED as the next big thing. These LED backlit LCD sets are remarkably brighter and thinner, and allow LCD to rival Plasma in much the same way a more efficient speaker sounds better (louder just sounds better; brighter just looks better). Apparently the TV makers got impatient in a bad market; or maybe Sony's big move to bet on 3D pushed the rest of them to join the party. 

I think they will soon have a bad hangover. The rush to start a new buying cycle with 3D is premature. Too many issues come up with the glasses. What do you do when they break? Keep buying more? Are you going to casually sit there in the family room wearing goofy glasses and staring at the Toob rather than socializing? Nah. You will throw the glasses in the gadget bin and go back to normal viewing. 

Comments

[Wave Rust]

Yelnick
I want 3D charts so I can look behind the bars and see what the smart money is really doing at any moment.

I already know what the dumb money is doing. :)

I'll be the last guy to buy an HD TV. My TV is smaller than my monitor!!! LOL

wave rust

[yelnick]

wave, no HDTV?? you are missing something then - I have a 1080p projector (10 foot screen) which interpolates frames in such a way that movies look like video - it gives them a smooth, almost liquid look. Call it hyper-reality. Changes the experience. This would be a better way to go than 3D, but Hollywood wants to jack up theater prices for 3D, and the CE industry rides it.

[Wave Rust]

My TV time is so limited. I mark what I have watched in months not days.

I watch well written, well done things only. Last 2 years, I watched Jack bauer infrequently, while the first couple seasons were good.

I watch some sports, mostly football and basketball but prefer live.

The only show that I try to watch now is Rubicon, a theme I'm too familiar with. It's light but amusing, and, well written, so far.

cspan,cnbc,foxnews are just info sources. I do switch off cnbc when the marxists are on - burnett(the giggling socialist), haynes and a few other Zuckerites.

Remember the good old days of FNN?

Movies have become so much trash, although I am so impressed with recent animations from Pixar and the like. Amazing.

Oh, I just remembered the excellent series, "Band of Brothers".

So where in that lot of viewings could I have enhanced my experience? What did I miss? :)

Many friends have HD big screens if I want to see something like the Super Bowl, etc.

The trend toward fill-a-wall television just isn't my cup o' tea. My walls have art, books and pictures.

Some people look for value, I prefer lasting value.

The problem I have with HD TV is that it has eliminated the good old tube TV's for the ordinary joe 6 pack, which was at a reasonable purchase price a couple years ago. try to find a regular TV now. Nearly impossible. That means a minimum $700 to $1000 cost to the average guy. That's a lot of money to him, unless he can use his food stamps to buy it, or run it on a credit card.

So, to my simple mind, the proposition is 'spend a grand to fill up a wall' for a TV, I will rarely watch.

But that 3D monitor for finding those smart money guys 'behind the curtain' and charts,,,, I'll git me one of dem dang TB's, son.

wave rust

fwiw, I do have 3 other TV's bigger than my monitor. :))

[Wave Rust]

you people get long?

"$/Yen sez go long boy ,,,, so does energy, tech
s&p stops above get tickled today
NDX already once through the 88% retrace from April ,,,, devastating above that

again, let's call april to Labor Day a 2 and be done with it.

top berth and top bunk and top deck on the QE2
it's going to be "a long day" even if they close the gap.
wave rust"
Posted by: Wave Rust | Friday, October 01, 2010 at 06:42 AM

I still go with April to August as big wave 2 of bigger wave 1.

Such a long way to go, monster big bull plows forward assisted by the doomers.

It does look toppy here, just like it has all the way up out of the abyss. 3 to 5 day rest would be a good thing later this week and into next.

We shall see in the fullness of time. :)

wave rust

[JT]

"I'll be the last guy to buy an HD TV.
My TV is smaller than my monitor!!!" - Wave Rust

Let me guess, you have "Rabbit Ears" instead of paying $39.95 per month for Basic Cable . . . LOL!

[Neo Tzu]

Current Neo-Hurst analysis:

B wave low of the diametric should arrive October 7/8 which is the next Hurst 3/4 TD low

D wave low of the diametric should arrive October 12/13 which is the next Hurst 6/7 TD day low

Yesterday's low was extra panicky because it was BOTH a 3/4 TD day low AND a 6/7 TD day low (4 days from Sept 28 and 7 days from Sept 23)

[Chabazite]

Any bears out there think that we are in some sort of final expanding diagonal triangle? - http://oi56.tinypic.com/2e3xyqh.jpg In fact, are there any bears out there??

[Mamma Boom Boom]

This is TOTAL BULL. The market charges up against an important line, hugs the line all day, and our great white leader, our self appointed market guru, our adviser of last resort, is MIA.

Folks, I am depressed.

[Wave Rust]

"Let me guess, you have "Rabbit Ears" instead of paying $39.95 per month for Basic Cable . . . LOL!"

rabbit ears? no. just big long wads of tin foil. i used the rest of the roll of tin foil to make my very stylish TV-watchin' hat (didn't have enough left for a helmet).

I use the hat during trading hours too. very effective.

wave rust

[Michael]

The price of TV's really haven't gone up much considering that I once bought a 31" Toshiba back in 1991 in NYC for roughly $450.

Right now, Dell is selling a 42" Sharp HDTV LCD television for $575.

:)

[Russell]

Prechter and Hochberg must have gotten creamed today

[Greg]

EWI offered me the other day 59% discount to teach me how to "count nested 1-2s" among other esoteric "scientific" SECRETS... since they know the story quite well. Really sad case. When I saw Neely also getting negative I knew we would explode. These two guys when combined are really a reliable indicator.

[DG]

When I saw Neely also getting negative I knew we would explode.

Statistically, this comment makes little sense. Neely's officially recommended 288 trades over the past 4+ years, with 141 winning trades and 147 losing trades, which is essentially a statistical dead-heat. His winner to loser size ratio keeps his expectancy positive, so, actually, unless one has a better strategy, one should take any trade Neely recommends, in the direction he recommends it.

Of course, as I've said many times, he does best on the Weekly timeframe.

That said, Neely should not have recommended shorting on weakness. Shorting in this environment has to be much more nimble than Neely typically is. It's possible to make money on the short side, but not after a 25 point decline. I know Neely knows this, so I'm not sure why he does it.

[Greg]

Statistically was not supposed to rally in Sep or Oct but we do. I don't have the resources to follow Nelly but in my world 141<147. Maybe he has positive expectation but I don't know what's his sharp or info ratio or his boggy so this is another long conversation. What is fascinating is your determination to defend Neely rationalizing away. It's fine, you may have your reasons and they could be valid. I don't mind, it's a free country. I'll give you that though, Neely is less robust "contrarian" indicator than Prechter. He may be even as good as coin tossing. That said, any simple trend following approach would beat both of them. If a were Mr. P I would take a break from the business for a year of two and think about what the hell am I doing. I would think about what king of business I want to be in since right now he is in the entertaining business more than anything else.

[DG]

What is fascinating is your determination to defend Neely rationalizing away.

Providing facts is not "rationalizing".

[Wave Rust]

the bearish have one problem. it's the NDX. it's at the 88% retrace while most other indices are at the 62 or 75.

if NDX blows through the 88, the rest will quickly follow higher. but if NDX moves down from here, the bearish won't be able to figure out whether it's a real swing down or a little correction from the spike today ,,,, and it could turn around just like it did today. scary stuff with or without a wave count for bearishly inclined.

btw, nice call there Mr. Futia. wish i had seen it before today.

wave rust

[vipul garg]

there are two scenarios right now for me and both are bullish:

case1 : is spx goes to 1200 straight and then reacts a little and then goes and makes a new trend high and reacts a little and moves up to 1300.

case 2: is spx reacts from here and goes to 1110 odd levels and then moves straight to 1300.

eventually 1300 is coming.and case 1 is favored.

[esTrader]

You might want to check out this E-waver www.tradeyourwayout.com. He called the top in April 2010, then called the low in July and now he has nailed this rally almost perfectly. His counts on gold and the USD have been spot on since he started posting. I think he might be wrong this time round and the market may have topped out or is in the final legs, but he is calling for a top in March of next year. Doubt it, but his analysis makes you wonder.

[KRG]

Any thoughts on why Chinese equities are under-performing relative to other EM?

[trendlines]

S&P500: Make or Break time!

In March this year, i suggested "Sell in May and go away", based on a 15-year SPX chart. In May, the SPX peaked at 1220 right on the dot as shown on this chart. Now, it's make-or-break time for the S&P500. It is up against downtrendline resistance joining the May-Aug tops, and overbought. Just above is the long-term trendline(red) that stopped the SPX dead in its tracks in May. Which way is it gonna go?

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/10/s-make-or-break-time.html

[trendlines]

Hi KRG,

Chinese equities run on a different calendar to the rest of the world. The isolated "Middle Kingdom" is just coming out, and has always lived in its own universe, historically.

China is probably about to resume its medium-term uptrend shortly.

[Account Deleted]

S&P 500 Futures before opening bell

[Neo Tzu]

Waiting for wave B low of the diametric due Friday

[trendlines]

(Please ignore the earlier comment. There's a typo in there.)

S&P500: Make or Break time!

In March this year, i suggested "Sell in May and go away", based on a 15-year SPX chart. In May, the SPX peaked at 1220 right on the dot as shown on this chart. Now, it's make-or-break time for the S&P500. It is up against downtrendline resistance joining the Oct07-May10 tops, and overbought. Just above is the long-term trendline(red) that stopped the SPX dead in its tracks in May. Which way is it gonna go?

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/10/s-make-or-break-time.html

[Mamma Boom Boom]

DG, where were you yesterday? Where are you every day? Was Glenn Loser right? Are you flipping burgers at McDonalds?

I remember reading scores of your 5,000 word essays, day after day after day. You would tell us all how wonderful you were, and that you quit a six digit income to trade for a living, and how you refined Neely's work to make it perfect. But, now you're flipping burgers.

DG, are you a failure?

Are you a hypocrite?

Are you a fraud?

Don't bother answering. And don't ever accuse my of bragging, again!

[Neo Tzu]

Which way is it gonna go?

Up of course.

SPX will be way above the April 2010 highs into Spring of next year.

[Neo Tzu]

Which way is it gonna go?

There is also a huge positive divergence on the Advance/Decine line cumulative chart which tells me the 2007 top will also be taken out.

[Michael]

"Too many issues come up with the glasses. What do you do when they break? Keep buying more? Are you going to casually sit there in the family room wearing goofy glasses and staring at the Toob rather than socializing? Nah. You will throw the glasses in the gadget bin and go back to normal viewing." - - - Yelnick

3D TV without the glasses is already here. Philips and Toshiba have introduced them this week. But you have to be sitting an optimal 35" from the 20" TV set, and 25" away from the 12" screen (and at a 40 degree "sweet spot" ) for optimal viewing.

[Neo Tzu]

When Roger finally turns bullish, the Dow will likely be 4000 points higher :)

[Alison]

Yelnick,

Making one eye two- that example image you have is how our two eyes perceive depth. More than two angles, and we start seeing like a bug (their compound eyes form a single image too, but with a far wider range of vision)? Will infrared be next? Very interesting. Ya know, images fade from the retina without movement, that's why human eyes already have an imperceptible twitch, birds constantly cock their heads back and forth, and you can sneak up on a frog or a bug in plain sight if you move slowly and quietly enough. Ha ha. Gotta wonder what all this does to our brains.

Why is Boom Boom so angry? Chill sister, how much difference does a day make in the market anyway?

[Alison]

Hey, nothing personal, just kidding Boom Boom. Depression is a right.

[Neo Tzu]

50% retrace is SPX 1147.50...picture perfect buy spot for those who want to catch the next rally

[Alison]

Neo Tzu, So you think the jobs report is gonna be good, or are you just looking at the charts?

[Roger D.]

"When Roger finally turns bullish, the Dow will likely be 4000 points higher"

With a statement like that I would be more comfortable saying a turn will come sooner rather than later.

We have five up on the monthly chart and the market is getting frothy here. Will it top this week or next? Maybe,maybe not. We will all know when it happens though as a fast elevator goes up giving a feeling of your euphoria,but coming down is a killer.

We are very long in the tooth here.

Roger D.

[Roger D.]

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/6b96a6c9-8ff7-4c9e-a343-26bf4703de9c

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/a8c05bcc-303f-4c4b-acb3-764022d11f6e

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/ac6f6cc7-f767-411e-b9b7-5b4ad20f2521

Like I said,we are very long in the tooth here. Caution is advised.

Roger D.

[Neo Tzu]

So you think the jobs report is gonna be good, or are you just looking at the charts?

Just looking at the neowaves which tell me the jobs report will be perceived negative for a day, then rally resumes.

We are very long in the tooth here.

Not according to the A/D line...

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>Why is Boom Boom so angry?
Posted by: Alison<

I hates hypocrites.

[Neo Tzu]

long in the tooth

4 year cycle is just bottoming this year, you havent seen long in the tooth yet.

When the Dow breaks out above the 2007 highs, then tell me about long in the tooth. But not at a major 4 year low where we are now.

[John W.]

http://www.mrswing.com/articles/Marketwatch_Dow_Theory_Buy_Signal_Triggers.html

[Roger D.]

long in the tooth

4 year cycle is just bottoming this year, you havent seen long in the tooth yet.

When the Dow breaks out above the 2007 highs, then tell me about long in the tooth. But not at a major 4 year low where we are now.

When you look at the market leaders currently,the declines are starting to look impulsive. They might me corrective,but the sellers are starting to come in. AMZN and PCLN are good examples. If by some wild f'n chance we do blow off from here say to 1300+,this country will be kaput.

[Alison]

Boom Boom, I see. People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

[Recovering Rodney]

Roger D. is angry and will be angrier if we hit 1300 so, in such case, he decrees that the country will be kaput.

As for me, I lost enough money thinking I was smart. The market may crash. It may boom. It may do anything in between. I don't know and neither does anyone else here. They might get lucky in the short run but in the long run gambling will bankrupt you.

[Wave Rust]

pretty slow market. or is it just my 14.4Kb modem? any of you using a the new 28K modems?

wave rust

[Mamma Boom Boom]

wave rust, I used to have a 56kb that every time I checked it, it was actually only running at 17-24. That had to go.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

The temptation to short gold miners is getting quite high.

[Roger D.]

Roger D. is never angry per se. Sometimes frustrated and sad. I am angry at the jackass that heads the Fed though, a buffoon and imbecile.

when this market makes top we will all know it.

[DG]

Mamma,

Whatever. I answered you in one of the posts below.

[noam]

http://www.lesjones.com/2010/06/02/lousy-track-record-for-robert-prechter-and-elliott-wave-international/
for all the Prechter lovers here are the results of the" Guru"