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« Dollar Reversal May Unwind The Presumptions Behind the September to Remember Rally | Main | If QE2 Flops, Will Stocks Dive? »

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

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Roger D.

You don't have to be a f'n genius to see this train wreck coming. It's nice that we have imbeciles at the Fed that never learn. Next year will be a unmitigated disaster.

Now

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/de86ab04-5cb8-47c0-a4da-82d976bb2679

and After

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/dd660142-54c2-4c9c-a4f4-4d9dd43f1959

Roger D.

Cucking Flueless

Sell the news with gusto.

You've also been saying that all year.

A monkey could time the market better than you. And not even a monkey with a normal monkey IQ, a retarded monkey.

Roger D.

"A monkey could time the market better than you. And not even a monkey with a normal monkey IQ, a retarded monkey."

Hey go fuck yourself!

Wave Rust

Roger, Roger, Roger, Roger, Roger, Roger!


"Next year will be a unmitigated disaster."


,,,, uh, for the bears, right?

good call then, Roger.

wave rust

Whitebear

The problem with "selling the QE 2 news" is that so many people are now expecting it will be a "selling the news" when QE2 actually happens. The market always behaves in a different way than the most (now believing selling the QE2 news) expect.

Roger D.


Wave rust,

Then what are you saying? That this market has infinite upside? That stocks are the new teflon and nothing will stop the advance as long as the "Fed" continues to create and carry the bid higher.

Sorry I have heard it all before. Sometime,sooner or later,something happens that is completely unsuspected and you have a material change in psychology. The same thing happenned in 1987,1990,2000,2007,2008 and now we are seeing money flows that border on chaos.

The latest panic du jour, the DX ZO

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/4a8dc04e-426f-46b4-be3f-04da5b4fc381

99 pct will argue that this move in the dollar was a anomoly,whether a probe or a black swan,it is a danger signal.

This market is the most overvalued in all time U.S. market history. The rate of change is historic,rivaling any move including 1929.

Go ahead and pound your drum and I will pound mine. History is on my side at this point.

Roger D.

Cucking Flueless

Hey go fuck yourself!

The truth hurts, eh?

So long as we're giving each other advice, mine to you is to stop posting, study how to read charts for about a decade, then start paper-trading.

The Macro Navigator

Just hold on 1-2 days more. Things might not be as bullish as they look.

The Macro Navigator
http://themacronavigator.blogspot.co

Completely Cucking Flueless

History is on my side at this point.

That and $3 will get you a coffee at Starbucks. Who cares if "history" is on your side if you go broke waiting for "history" to arrive?

My most conservative position-sizing account is up over 50% this year with a maximum drawdown of 5%. If I sat around waiting for "history" to be on my side, I wouldn't have 50% more money than I did at the beginning of the year in that account. I'd rather have the money. "History" arrives every day in the form of long and short trade opportunities. When "history" arrives for you, you can bet your bottom dollar (which is probably what you'll be down to), that I will also be getting short.

mz

hey, DG, if you are right about diametric, the interim top of the pattern will be in by Nov 5th around 1209.

Roger D.

Roy over at EW Practitioner is the the latest waver to throw in the towel. That's what happens when you continue to look a wave structures throgh five wave lenses. Expecting this market to go much,much higher from here is to disregard so many warning signs.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/7205c81a-2b2e-4631-964c-285e752524b8

Wave Rust

Roger,
history does repeat ,,,, eventually.

look here, i can make a bearish case for the next few days.

and i can make 2 or 3 bullish cases. for me, it's about trading what today's history is.

bearish case - i have already made, which is up into the election, then down into christmas.

bullish case- sideways to down for a day, or into the election ,,,, then up to new years ,,,, maybe spx 1300

an even more bullish case - down into the election then up big to like spx 1430 to new years

trading aint about making a great prediction. it's about making alot of decisions that result in profitable trades and very few losing trades.

i'm pretty good at predicting but not one prediction ever made me a nickel. it's the trade that the makes money.

chats, forums, and blogs are just trading mirages to those that don't trade, and amusement to those people that do trade.

you are making judgements about the economy or the country, and relating them to the market. These two are completely unrelated on a day to day basis.

Consider this a suggestion, there is one thing you have never ever done here. and, that is why you continue to make the same mistake or hold on to the erroneous views.

The one thing you have never done is ask someone a serious question about why they think the way they do, or what they see that you don't. (whether you agree or disagree with them)

try it. you might find out something that might change the way you look at stocks.


wave rust

fwiw, i'll probably be short on monday. it's overbought.

Dsquare

Phoney war on terror, you can vote too!

Body scanners unveiled at JFK Airport; Homeland Security Sect. Janet Napolitano doesn't volunteer
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_.....z13GK4775Z

Poll Results
Do you approve of the introduction of body scanners at the nation's airports?

Yes! They will improve security. 18%
No! They're an invasion of privacy! 77%
I'm not sure. 5%

Dsquare

This link should work:
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2010/10/22/2010-10-22_body_scanners_unveiled_at_jfk_airport_homeland_security_sect_janet_napolitano_do.html#ixzz13GK4775Z

Roger D.

IBM's grand supercycle irregular flat bull market. No wonder most bears have been wrong and the bulls will be wrong also. A massive C wave down is to come. The Dot.com bust together with USGOV reflation policies produced a Elliot irregular flat bull market pattern on a grand supercycle scale. You can't expect Elliot clarity looking at the market through a 5 wave lens.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/05cda35d-e556-4fe8-aa2e-f74272ea6ac1

Completely Cucking Flueless

You can't expect Elliot clarity looking at the market through a 5 wave lens.

Is this your new reason why you're smarter than everyone else? You're the only one not looking for 5-wave moves?

Classic. Considering that just about every other post of yours is about "5 waves down" or "5 waves up look to be complete". You were warned repeatedly that none of the moves you were calling 5-wavers were, in fact, 5-wavers.

Keep pecking around, though, since even a blind squirrel gets a nut every now and again.

Roger D.

Completely fucking clueless,

Right or wrong atleast I put my charts and ideas out there for the world to look at under my real name. You phony coward hide behind a bullshit handle.

Try shoveling your lame critism to somebody who gives a rat's ass.

Completely Cucking Flueless

Right or wrong atleast I put my charts and ideas out there for the world to look at under my real name.

If you were right once in a while, you wouldn't be completely cucking flueless. Problem is you're never right. You've got to be the only prognosticator actually WORSE than EWI. That's cucking saying something.

At first, it just seemed like bad luck, then, it got annoying, then pathetic, now it's just absurd and bordering on psychosis.

As wave rust said, your main problem is you think you know it all when all evidence, like those charts you put out there, shows you don't know a damn thing.

Wave Rust

Is that the spx trading at 1190+?

wave rust

Whitebear

So much for the top-callers. Overnight ramping now.

Wave Rust

Reasons for top pickers to go short at the open Monday morning:

gap up openings on sunday night are very bearish

going to new highs on sunday night are even more bearish

snp's going vertical on sunday night is very bearish

it's extremely overbought

only a fool would buy at higher prices with a fiat currency

valuations are higher than they have been in over 2,000 years

housing prices are crashing and foreclosures will skyrocket

it's the lowest volume in any market since markets began began tracking volume on rice paper scrolls.

prechter and neely are bullish at the same time

it's just another false breakout

the dow to gold ratio says sell

the big moves are over and nothing but Dow 4,000 left to do

sara palin can see the end of the world from her front porch

hindenburger omen is for real, dude.

golden cross says sell

inverse 3 gnomes and a dumb mouse formation says sell

buy the last 5 days of the month is an illiteratti myth

Q.E. II is another pandoras box of evil loosed on a nation as an evil halloween prank.

secretariat was really a unicorn

the bullish SP trade is so crowded, nobody is even trading that index anymore.

peak oil has passed and now we're doomed

unemployment is worse and no more benefits extensions

oblahblah's pride and joy, the all-electric Chevy Volt is unmasked as a crappy hybrid

the U.S. sucks so bad that the world knows china is the supreme economic power today.

inflation is back and people don't know what to do
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

things are so desparate, so very bad that I can't go on.

where the heck is jack bauer when us top pickers really, really need him?

sigh. all is lost. good bye cruel markets.

wave rust

Wave Rust

One last reason to go short on Monday morning:

Yelnick hasn't posted since Wednesday, and I don't know what to do.

bummer dude.

wave rust

Wave Rust

seriously now, it's amazing in overnight trading, with only usd index and natty gas down!!!

you don't see too many lightning bolts across all futures like this.

never fade the federales, amigos

wave rust

trading is simple once you figure out the hard part.

Account Deleted

S&P 500 before opening bell: CLICK HERE

JT

There are an awful lot of "kids" out there that are attracted to Elliott Wave Theory and Robert Prechter, and blogs like this one, along with the likes of Daneric's and Kenny's ( who has recently shut down and disappeared ) of the world, yet they are getting an extremely painful lesson in how markets actually trade in the REAL WORLD.

After over a full year of trying to play "Pick The Top" it's pretty clear who really has had "skin" in the game, as opposed to those that have been singing tunes of "Gloom and Doom" and continually posting about crashes.

Not sure where Yelnick has been since last Wednesday, but perhaps he's grown equally tired of trying to play "Pick The Top" too.


edwin

Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

Now that all the top chasers (Yelnick included?) have shut-up and moved on, perhaps the top is in.

Wave Rust

For the first time in well over a year, my TA/work/stuff/etc. has a strong indication that the FOMC announcement will actually have an impact on the markets ,,,, and likely quite a powerful move will be the result.

jaded logic would see both sides of a big move.

Up- something along the lines of David Tepper's recent cnbc comments.

Down- strictly technical expectation that further QE II will cause domestic commodity inflation (versus current rallies in commods) and then see it quickly trickle down to the consumer.

In fact, the fast trickle could become tsunami-esque. Tsunamis go from nearly imperceptible to devastating before you can run fast enough for high ground.

The inflation tsunami could be the result of the biggest con job in world history.

If QE II is purposed to "help" support the entire vertical real estate market, then it will fail miserably, imho. Why? Commodity prices would rise, but those are simply inputs.

Real property will continue to drop because there is a monster sized supply of any kind of property somebody could want. All that property isn't on the market. It remains lodged in the gut of constipated financial institutions. Constipated banks aren't hungry for new asset (loans), since they don't know when the Feds are going to force feed them some "Foreclosure Ex-lax".

So the point is input costs can rise to the sky but since new building, in general, is scarce in the U.S. (unless privately financed), the effects of QE II will swerve by real estate and land directly on the consumer from more directions than they have ever seen or imagined.

That point leads to this real crisis for U.S. consumer/taxpayer/home owner. Local taxes of all kinds will rise and in many places, quite dramatically. We are all consumers and that includes consuming local government services that have been taken for granted. Consider how a 50% reduction or more, in real estate values will affect the future budget deficits for your town, township, etc. This has already happened in in R.E. boom areas (NV, CA, FL). Some regions have been negligibly affected so far.

Then comes the tsunami on top of that ,,,, try another 50% decline in R.E. across all regions in the U.S. when the EXLAX effect takes over. Municipal govt's will default on interest payments, causing a muni dump unheard of and unimagined.

SO, now, you have high and still rising food basket prices, no lending, reduced local govt services. A tragedy for the poor and for just about everybody else.

So, where do you hide or park your money? Gold? yeah, some of it.

Actually, imho, the mostest bestest safest place to hunker down will be ,,,, wait for it now ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, the equity markets!!!
///////////////////////////////////////////////////

BAD TIMES ARE BULLISH FOR STOCKS THROUGHOUT HISTORY. THEY ARE LIQUID. AND IN REALLY BAD TIMES, THEY ARE AND WILL BE THE MAJOR ASSET CLASS THAT CAN AND WILL APPRECIATE IN PRICE!!!!

HERE IS MY OFFER TO ALL BEARS: SEND ME THE $10,000 YOU WILL LOSE AS A BEAR, AND I WILL CALL YOU EVERY DAY FOR AS LONG AS IT TAKES FOR YOU TO BECOME A BULL.

IF YOU THINK YOU MIGHT LOSE $100,000 BY BEING A BEAR, THEN I WILL ALLOW YOU TO SEND ME $100,000. THIS IS A LIMITED TIME OFFER WITH NO REFUNDS. CRYING OVER THE PHONE IS ALLOWED, SO ACT FAST, I ONLY HAVE ROOM TIME FOR 1,000,000 BEARS.

wave rust

Wave Rust

oooh

TIPS underwater on yield

wave rust

Oraclelurker

Anyone else still short?

?

Mama,

Inflationary expectations: Negative interest rate on TIPS.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101025-711679.html

Vipul garg

wave rust
Brevity is the soul of wit

Wave Rust

vipul

not trying for brev ,,,, if i wanted to be brev, i'd do twitter

nor wit ,,,, my weak attempts at humor always have some indication of it ,,, like a ":)" or a "LOL"

vipul, it's sad that so many who read EW stuff on the internet never get the value possible for their trading due to the guys in guru-dumb are so frequently wrong, and wrong for a long time.

the list above is a small portion of what i have seen EW'ers give as reasons to do this or that. Not one of those things on the list above affects trading, trend, entry exit, risk management, T.A., and so on.

the post that begins with "For the first time in well over a year" is deadly serious also.

sorry if i bored you with those posts.

wave rust

yelnick

edwin, I am still here! Just busy. BTW Neely just put out a short call

JT

RJ/CRB Index above 300 for the first time since October of 2008.

So much for Prechter and his DEFLATION thesis.

edwin

Yelnick,

Glad that you are Ok. This bull is getting tired. I also placed my scout short position EOD when SDS showing a nice bullish wedge, hammer on the daily chart, along with MACD and Full Stochastic bullish cross.

I also see that a lot of dividend chasers are getting hurt and must be feeling a bit nervous. e.g. LLY and FE.

DG

Met my minimum target today:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/10/bullish-golden-cross-to-follow-yesterdays-false-break.html?cid=6a00d8341c563953ef0133f53fd2e5970b#comment-6a00d8341c563953ef0133f53fd2e5970b

Dsquare

"Anyone else still short?"

I'm short the gold stocks (using HGD.to). I'm thinking the USD may go up in an expanding triangle, appears to be the only way to get it up since the first wave counts like a zigzag. Could have finished wave b today. Looking for a ~1 year triangle for an e wave at which time gold corrects hard.

Dsquare

Just to be clear the expanding triangle would be one leg of the e wave contracting triangle.

Dsquare

That could get us to maybe 83 so maybe an expanding triangle-x-whatever to 88.

vipul garg

wave rust,
the reasons you ve listed for shorting at open on monday post have nothing technical about them , so i wonder why will any EW practitioner quote or use them for going short.

cheap air yeezy

Romance is seeking perfection, love is forgiving faults!

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