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« Gridlock May Not Be Good as Double Dip Still Looms | Main | Dollar Reversal May Unwind The Presumptions Behind the September to Remember Rally »

Sunday, October 17, 2010

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da bear

Perhaps the dollar has finished 'a' of A down and is headed for the greatest suckers rally (wave B) in the history of Fiat Currencies. Wave B would go above 90 (like Prechter thinks) then Big C down would take the dollar to basically zero.

On the flipside I think that gold has put in a wave v of 'b' of 4 top and is headed in the final wave 'c' of 4 low. Similar to the low in the Seventies that took gold from $178 to $103 which lead to the final wave 5 blow off into January 1980. Indeed I think that the Seventies gold bull was a Super Cycle 3 (with Super Cycle 1 occurring when FDR revalued gold to $35). So at the next major gold low the yellow metal can start Cycle 'V' of Super Cycle 5, also similar to the post 1987 crash in US stocks.


da bear

Hockthefarm

Yelnick:

Interesting take from Mauldin this week. Defines the foreclosuregate issue really well and I'd throw in clamidia and a full blown yeast infection to more fully describe our banks. That banks are still around throwing the big fluck into average Americans (with full gubmint and Fed blessings) speaks volumes about where the dollar is ultimately headed. Bounce for 2 or 3 year, sure. 10 years? Avoid like tramp snot on a barbed wire fence:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18580/the-subprime-debacle-act-2

Hock

Hockthefarm

Well if you had your money with this guy, you would have done pretty well:

http://caldaro.wordpress.com/

It appears Dent's miss by 3 converted touchdowns and a field goal is to be attributed to a market on steroids! Right.

I'm off to Turkey for a week of business and then on to Ephesus for a week of exploring. Toying with that 17 mile ferry ride to Rhodes. But I've had enough of beggars that think a loan is really a gift. Greeks remind me of PJ O'Rourke's haunting lines about hay and a barn for human cattle:

"Freedom is not empowerment.......Anybody can grab a gun and be empowered. It's not entitlement. An entitlement is what people on welfare get, and how free are they? It's not an endlessly expanding list of rights-the "right" to education, the "right" to food and housing. That's not freedom, that's dependency. Those aren't rights, those are the rations of slavery-hay and a barn for human cattle."

Oh well,

Hock

yelnick

Hock, thanks for the Mauldin reference. I read it before doing my Dollar Bottom post. It is very unclear that the banksters can escape the day of reckoning this time. The midnight bill from the Senate may have been their last ditched effort to prevent what is soon to occur: a large scale inability to foreclose, and the need to recognize a huge series of losses when the other side of the trade (the buyer of the MBS) sues.

Jacque De Molay

Yes the dollar has bottomed. The release of the Chilean miners was the sign that the commodity top/dollar bottom was in and Friday's market action performed beautifully as Apple, Google, and the qqqqs gapped above their upper BBs (last done by Apple at its April high) while the rest of the stock market performed poorly and euro, gold, crude oil and other commodities tanked. McClellan Oscillator dropped below the O line on this day of euphoria. Gold is hovering around those infamous of numbers 1369 and 1370. And Cramer said there would be pain on the 18th and judging by futures action in the euro and US stock indices it looks like he will be right.

Dsquare

Neely does counts on the EURO and has it in a terminal impulsive C wave, so eventually it goes sub 90, if the count is right (to the beginning of the C wave or below it, and that may spell the death of the EURO). The EURO dominates the USD index and the inverse count would be the dollar count, so the USD presumably goes back to 120. That's very bullish, so I think the US uses its gold reserves to go back on a gold standard of some kind. Dollar continues to live (perhaps its the Fed that dies!). Now exactly where are we in this EURO terminal C wave? In four as Neely thinks (four as a triangle with e to go) or did we make 4 and the triangle is 5 as a failure? If the latter, then the EURO is already done. Terminals are tricky and wave 2 and 4 can show extreme alternation. Anyway, need to figure what gold is up to, too (my thinking is wave 1 of a terminal 5th is completing). Meanwhile I'm short the gold stocks looking for c of E of LT wave 4.

Account Deleted

S&P 500 Before opening bell

M

GOING SHORT YOU BUNCH OF LOSERS? THANK U FOR YOUR MONEY

Wave Rust

Here it is, NOT much ado about something important!!

"the bearish have one problem. it's the NDX. it's at the 88% retrace while most other indices are at the 62 or 75.

if NDX blows through the 88, the rest will quickly follow higher. but if NDX moves down from here, the bearish won't be able to figure out whether it's a real swing down or a little correction from the spike today ,,,, and it could turn around just like it did today. scary stuff with or without a wave count for bearishly inclined. ,,,,,
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Tuesday, October 05, 2010 at 07:00 PM"

Whitebear

Last week, everyone was saying that the stock market would go up as long as the USD stayed down. Well. Today, USD is up but the market is still up.

Those top-callers that are looking for 1130 soon or those that have sold recently are missing another day of rally.

r

buy buy buy buy

JT

Dollar weak again ...

Wave Rust

young bull markets are like watching paint dry on a rainy day

wave rust

Wave Rust

nu su,

where's that 140 point crash? does it start tomorrow?

didn't you say that today was the last up day for your cycle work? if the markets head south from here, that will be a good call eh.

wave rust

JT

IPAD and IPOD came in "light" compared to the Mac and IPhone which were rock solid.

Margins were lower. Not sure why.

Look for Apple to give "conservative" guidance once again so that it can CRUSH it next quarter.

Underpromise.
Overdeliver.

:)

Wave Rust

aapl off 5%+ in after market trades.

gross margin sucked at 38% ! LOL

wave rust

OracleLurker

GOING SHORT YOU BUNCH OF LOSERS? THANK U FOR YOUR MONEY

Posted by: M | Monday, October 18, 2010 at 08:06 AM

buy buy buy buy

Posted by: r | Monday, October 18, 2010 at 12:35 PM

yup this is the type of commentary you get at intermediate term tops.

All I am saying...
Is give 1150 a chance


Wave Rust

whoops

margin at 36 but expected at 38

aapl crashes the market

run for the air raid shelters.

"drop, stop and roll"

cry for mama


wave rust

Wave Rust

oracle

this could be the big one.

wave rust

:)

JT

Wave,

You are such a DRAMA QUEEN.

Apple is off $10.50 after being UP TEN DAYS IN A ROW.

OracleLurker

If Roger posts even one chart tonight I'm covering.

POZI

Do not worry I paid Roger 1000$ to keep quiet

Jacques DeMolay

IBM is down 3% after hours also. Trading systems are going haywire flashing false prints down to 106.(46) Spy level. SPXU (2xinverse SP) etf finished up 2+% with the SP UP!!! SPXU had a massive up bar in its last 15 minute bar.
Stock averages dropped from April high to July low in 47 trading days. Last Friday, there had been 74 trading days from July low and 407 trading days from 3-6-9 low, 84 weeks from March 2009 low, 66 weeks from July 2009 low, 24 weeks from April high and 157 weeks from October 2010. 58 is my new favorite #. 58 years separated 1929 and 1987 crashes. And this week: 85 weeks from 2009 lows and 158 weeks from October 2007 high. 406===58x7 464==58x8 46,58 prominent Cramer/ Social Network/ Wall street 2 Code numbers.

Wave Rust

jit

drama? not to me

it was just a fact and it filled a gap

which was dramatic to the guy who bot aapl at 3:59.

the folly of buying on fundamentals and expectations of some anal ist at jp smorgasbord and sons.

wave rust

Wave Rust

jit

it was down $15 when I saw the quote

wave rust

Joe Russo

$USD attempting continuation of rally off 76.14 low. Chance of another leg up IF trade held above 76.71. If successful, equities correct in kind.

Wave Rust

jit

you must have had delayed quotes.

http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/

AAPL Apple Inc 318.00 299.41 -5.85%

as of 7:30 pm

wave rust

KRG

Y : You must have noticed.. Benoit Mandelbrot passed away..RIP..
[http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/10/18/mandelbrot_obituary/]

Wave Rust

The USD index is NOT some surrogate for US stocks. It is such a myth.

The correlation for USD is very close to gold's movement, in recent years, if you are looking for direction. Certainly amplitude differs between the two most of the time.

fwiw, the USD does not bottom with current action. it is much more likely to repeat the sideways from mid to late June, for a 'd of c, then the d, then the e. All in about 15 trading days, at the longest.

the gold will act like it's lost and can't get out of its own way, from one day to the next. I think gold is a working short, as has been the 30 year T bond.

when do stock indices become a sell? the day after the election ,,,, sell the smell of victory. simple right? then maybe we get a new channel down to christmas/new years.

the problem won't be for the bulls, it will be with the bears. No big selloff, just a nasty 4th wave sideways. the rocket after new years will be another bear killer.


wave rust

Wave Rust

Remember this is still the beginning of the bull market. my forward look is something like this:

April was the 1 of 1, the 2 of 1 was either the July or August low (i think it counts better with July 2nd). the election turn will be spx is finishing the 3 of 3 of 1.

Spring of 2011 should complete 5 of 3, then 4 of 1 will probably do a very long sideways into sometime before the 2012 election. 5 of 1 will begin when it is a given that oblahblah isn't going to be pres. any more.

caveat- if oblahblah has a chance and/or is re-elected, I'll be looking for the repeat of the 1938 type 50% retracement of the whole move from march '09. that would be similar to what was seen in the next 4 years, 1938 to april 1942, well after pearl harbor.

does it get simpler? no, not for me.

variations will and do occur, but Dow 14,000 in this coming spring is good target.

i'll be out campaigning during the day for the next few weeks.

wave rust

yelnick

KRG, yes, saw the great man had passed. Thanks for mentioning it.

Account Deleted

S&P 500 Futures before opening bell: CLICK HERE

Mamma Boom Boom

>Remember this is still the beginning of the bull market. my forward look is something like this:<

Now we have a horse race! I've been thinking just the opposite. Problem is, my indicators are not confirming my thoughts. But, they can change dramatically in one week.

Bottom line: if my suspicions are correct, this rally is toast before mid November.

Neo-Mamma

Neo Tzu

Diamond Top in the Dow and SPX...

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55650657

Hurst 10 week lows are right on schedule

Neo Tzu

Hurst 10 week low should coincide near the November 1 Gann vibration...

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55646190

Neo Tzu

Pitchfork resistance...time to close ALL THOSE PESKY GAPS...

Edwin

SPY golden cross..Buy on Dips being rewarded. That is all you need to know. Forget about the silly wave counts.

usdollar

I believe it is not D and E for dollar, but 4 (D) and an ending diagonal 5, which will near term go up to about 95, probably to the end of January 2011. The gov. is trying to inflate, but will fail when several hundred trillion usd in IOUs will cave in. After this 4th wave up is completed, there will be a fifth down somewhere mid 2012 towards 64 on index before usd will take off towards 164 on the index. QE2 will probably happen during the 5th wave down as a last resort before the dollar becomes super strong. The actual bills in your hand is going to be what counts.

Sobranie

1300 , 1300

Roger D.

"If Roger posts even one chart tonight I'm covering."

I saw that last night and laughed. I was going to post some charts that were extremely bearish,but why bother.

Jamie Dimon,BAC,and all the rest,good luck on sweetening this pile of dung.

Roger D.

Michael

Buying MEE here.
Company is seeking strategic alternatives and/or sale. Easily worth $60 in my opinion.

Neo Tzu

SPY golden cross

Golden cross is 50 day MA crossing 200 day MA. SPX and SPY never crossed only the narrow Dow. There is no buy on the SPX or SPY here.

Forecasters will be hoist by their pantaloons

Not me, I'm gonna brag a little for calling this top. I used the Hurst 10 week cycle and a 9 wave Neowave diametric to nail this top while everyone else was bullish.

Documented here....
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=17221

More downside to come.

Edwin

SPX 50 MA at $111.66; SPX 200 MA at $111.35...and that is not a Golden Cross? OMG.

"CAPITAL" LETTERS

THIS IS THE CRASH! YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED ABOUT THIS FOR DECADES BY ROBERT PRECHTER, THE MASTER MARKETICIAN. HE TOLD YOU TO GET OUT IN 1987 BUT YOU DIDN'T LISTEN. HE TOLD YOU TO GET OUT MANY, MANY TIMES IN THE FOLLOWING TWENTY THREE YEARS, BUT YOU DIDN'T LISTEN! YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

WILL YOU LISTEN?!

OR WILL YOU BE A SHEEP TO THE SLAUGHTER?!

GOD HAVE MERCY ON YOU.

Jacques DeMolay

"1300 1300"

NO,

It's 1307 1307

Roger D.

I'm not fully convinced the top is in, but there's a good chance that it is. this could be just a 4th wave and with one more thrust up. The Euro looks to have topped and if it continues to drop like a rock,you can kiss big wave 3 hello. This subprime mess has legs,but the Fed has QE lite in progress. I would lighten up here on any rally. BTW I recall I said that we would see wave 1 down before the election and then have wave 2 up into the election,then all hell breaks lose after the election.

Roger D.

"CAPITAL" IDEAS

KISS WAVE 3 HELLO LIKE ROGER SAYS.

KISS IT HELLO.

SAY HELLO WITH A KISS TO NUMBER 3.

WAVE 3: HELLO! NOW HERE'S A BIG, WET, JUICY KISS

KISS, KISS.

NOW PRAY. AND MAY GOD HAVE MERCY. PRECHTER WARNED YOU. IT WAS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN IN 1987 BUT IT IS HAPPENING NOW.

MERCY!

Roger D.

Here's the DAX, is the top in? Maybe but if we get a rally in the Euro,another thrust up would paint a finished count IMHO.

Roger D.

Anyway let the foreplay begin.

http://www.screencast.com/users/parisgnome/folders/Default/media/f05f92eb-8629-4ae2-a5eb-46733d10e883

Jacques DeMolay

Today is the 23rd anniversary of 1987 crash. I was trying to find an esoteric cycle for that one but maybe it's a tribute to the fact that I was the 23rd grandmaster. Remember April 23 was the closing high and original release date for Wall Street 2.

da bear

yelnick and others,


I think a few months back I posted an alternate wave 2 where wave e up would be followed by wave 'f' down then wave 'g' up? Did that happen? or did I post it on my message board? Or am I smoking something?

da bear

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