Strike 3 For 3DTV

I have been beating up on 3DTV, and now surveys strongly support my position. NewTeeVee reports that surveys of consumer interest show only 15% interest in 3D at home, with 63% not seeing the need. In contrast, the interest in online (Internet) TV is 51% higher.

The third strike against 3DTV (after lack of content and those darned glasses) is the GoogleTV announcement, with Android-powered online TVs and blu-ray players been launched by Sony.

This launch is huge since the TV now joins tablets and smartphones as the next connected device, which I see as the foundation for the next tech boom. The price increment for an online TV is fairly small, and I expect it to largely disappear as Internet becomes a requirement in future TVs and blu-ray players. 

While online is gaining strong interest, estimates for 3DTV shipments are decreasing from earlier optimism in spite of chirpy optimism normally seen in market research firms trying to sell reports to manufacturers. (A key to understanding these reports is that the "higher numbers win", meaning the ones trying to promote the market will buy reports with higher numbers, so when the chirpy researchers drop forecasts the market is really weak and they are scrambling to regain credibility rather than sell reports.)  

The biggest differentiator of online TV vs 3DTV is: it's the content, stupid. For many viewers, it is a simple as getting Netflix online, which looks like an online subscription movie service with much broader selection than HBO or Showtime. There is also keen interest to add new channels (especially special interest and international) as well as to watch social videos from YouTube and other sources. Sports viewing gets enhanced as well with additional viewing angles and commentary, and it is possible to watch NFL games online despite the blackout on local TV.

There is still much to be worked out. Sony bet their strategy on 3G back at CES, and now seems poised to make a new bet on online TV. They need to fix a few things, like this overly complicated remote. TV is a leanback experience ...

Comments

[Wave Rust]

MHD,

"Whole financial system based on fraud...a good kind of wrong"

I'm shocked, shocked that there is fraud in our financial system!!!!

:)

wave rust

[Wave Rust]

yelnick,

"as Internet becomes a requirement in future TVs and blu-ray players."

I can wait for that merging of technologies. That might get me off the tube TV! Can I get fries with that too?

haven't seen blue ray yet. my VHS tapes still record and playback well enough.

sill have my VHS camcorder too. it's as big as most shoulder fired rocket launchers. Big is good!

tube TV, VHS, big camcorders, auto-reverse 8 track tapes, reel-to-reels, internal combustion V-8's, rear wheel drive ,,,,

does life get any better?

wave rust

[?]

Did anybody notice that TIP is very close to making new all time highs (within $1). Long bonds have also sold off the last few weeks. Maybe the bond guys are beginning to price in inflationary expectations......

[yelnick]

wave, how is your buggy whip collection?

[?]

Wave,

Add 5.25" floppy drives and disks and a Sony Beta camcorder and Beta tape player.

You should take your VHS camcorder to an airport TSA screener. He/she may have never seen one of these things and will think you are carrying a weapon of some type.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>POP QUIZ: How many of you think inflation is coming soon?

(must be 18 or older to play)

Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Tuesday, October 12, 2010 at 01:53 PM<

One more time!

[Tio Sanchez]

i like this.......

MHD wrote: "And the sad fact is Bob P. never seems to learn."

He's learned very well! The lesson? He will always have suckers buying his wares if he hews to the catastrophe line. There will always be people with anxiety problems who enjoy scaring themselves and pretending they are just being prudent. Whether the markets crash or rise is irrelevant... it's the horrible thrill of worry disguised as "Elliott Waves" that feeds Bob's family.

[Wave Rust]

yel

"wave, how is your buggy whip collection?"

it's getting moldy. lots of inquiries from people who stop by the double-wide ,,,, that "Buggy Whips For Sale" sign out in the carport, attracts some strange looking people who wear lots of studded black leather apparel. very strange indeed.

go figger, eh!

wave rust

[Wave Rust]

?

double 5 1/4 drives, yes. betamax never got cheap enough before it disappeared.

but my transistor radio still eats its weight in batteries, gets about 3 local stations and WLS out of chicago when I'm up on the roof re-tarring the sundeck.

wave rust

[Wave Rust]

with all my bullish posts, i should tell youse that I put on a scalp short on that selloff before the close.

wave rust

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>POP QUIZ: How many of you think inflation is coming soon?<

This is turning out to be a real tuffy. I guess I should have asked, "What's your favorite color?"

[Wave Rust]

yel,

"wave, history says the market should go up into the 2012 elections .. Prechter's 7.25 yr cycle (66 - 74 - 80 - 87 - 94 - 00 - 07) is rising into 2012 .. QE says we should trash the buck and watch all markets rise in dollar terms into 2012.

Posted by: Yelnick

lets say spring 2011, the entire economy begins to show positive signs and even potential capital formation re-ignites ,,,, then the data may look good for the 2012 election, but what will matter more, imo, is how it feels. how it feels in peoria will be more important than what the politicians brag about.

so i wonder how well it will feel in the key states, especially after re-apportionment from census data. funny to think your california might lose an electoral vote ,,,, the old mobility of capital, factories and labor rule coming home to roost ,,,, especially if you guys elect Jerry.

dont know about that prechter cycle, but i do agree on the market rising into elections, except for that bugger in '92 ,,,, bush 41 blew it ,,,, pretty dumb cuz everybody read his lips. :)

wave rust

[Mamma Boom Boom]

I think this coming correction could shave off a hundred handles.

Neo-Mamma

[Frito Kahlo]

Tio, me thinks perhaps you lost some dough using Prechter's notorious crystal ball?

[Account Deleted]

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell: CLICK HERE

[esTrader]

Against all odds this e-waver gets it right again!
www.tradeyourwayout.com

His calls have been damn accurate. I was looking for us to roll over long before. There still is that chance of a roll over, but I wouldn't bet against it.

[Greg]

Just got "Prechter's NEW Theorist: 25 Charts, One Momentous Story". Yes M O M E N T O U S. The audacity and dilusion of some individuals is unbelievable. Anybody said "nested 1-2s"? Watch out if Prechter and Neely get bullish, that would be the end of the run.

[george]

ROGER D. SAYS:
Looks like we have a double top or a marginal new high in the Dow due in the next 5-10 days depending how BIDU finishes it's final 5th wave up.

today wednesday was the 12th day of a contracting
triangle for the stock chart for BAIDU symbol BIDU.
the daily volume has dropped off since the
triangle started .
roger am i too assume you are looking
for a high volume news event related pop
out of the triangle? if that happens that
doesn't mean the whole market will pop.
here is a news event that could cause a pop
or drop for bidu. this news item was
released tueday night no stock reaction
as of wednesdays close:
BEIJING—Big Chinese electronic-commerce company Alibaba Group has joined with Microsoft Corp. to create a new Web-search site—a move that could challenge Baidu Inc.'s dominance of China's search market.
Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703440004575547284215718978.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW#ixzz12IdjWkIb

[Zendo]

Gold and Silver is going and going and going... I wonder when QE2 finally announced by Nov 3rd, the USD index might be trading below the all the time low and head for a true collapse. Wonder what will happen to the equity market when the usd drop like a rock in such a short period of time??

[DG]

Watch out if Prechter and Neely get bullish, that would be the end of the run.

Posted by: Greg | Wednesday, October 13, 2010 at 07:01 PM

Care to square this opinion with the fact that, other than taking a couple of short-term short trades which didn't pan out, Neely was saying pretty much all summer that the market was setting up for a bullish move and went long at the end of August at the bottom tick? Not that I don't think that doing so was any more than luck and he could just as easily have missed the trade, but it happened nonetheless.

So far, I don't think Neely's bullishness has stopped the market yet.

[Account Deleted]

S&P 500 Futures before opening bell : CLICK HERE

[Wave Rust]

george
most people have no idea how big and monstrous Alibaba is ,,,, and important too.

i was surprised and pleased with that MS/Bing JV thing with them.

now, if MS can just avoid screwing it up.

wave rust

[Wave Rust]

to all you who read the bear blogs,

what are they writing about? must be getting to the bottom of the negativity well.

bear markets are scary but bull markets are boring.

wave rust

P.S. Yelnick, I know you said the bears will have their day soon. :) I know "the market always fluctuates", mostly higher.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>POP QUIZ: How many of you think inflation is coming soon?<

Hmmmm! Could it be? All imbeciles?

[Roger D.]

Another 32 billion of liquid propellant for the banksters to play with. If and when the USD breaks 76,74 and 72,will people realise that we as a nation have sold out everything for nothing?

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

[Neo Tzu]

SPX 1174 is fierce resistance...next move is down

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55528306

I'll go 40 more handles than Mammas prediction. She says 100 down I say 140 handles down.

[Neo Tzu]

>>140 handles<<

within 2 months.

[Neo Tzu]

Bulls have two hurdles to prove this move is legitimate.

1. Prove the SPX can hurdle flash crash recovery high reistance.
2. Prove the SPX can rally past 10/16/2010

Posted by: Neo Tzu | Wednesday, October 13, 2010 at 07:41 AM

[Roger D.]

Big Ben can huff and puff,but the BKX says screw you pal. The writings on the wall,one big FAIL.

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/29aa89ec-9901-4de8-affd-f0116efe6b98

[Roger D.]

Reminds me of 2007,2008 the reality is coming into focus here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWOFfflnvQ0

[Neo Tzu]

>>in 2 months<<

If this rally is a terminal impulsion from the summer lows, we could see the entire bull move wiped out in 2-4 weeks.

[Neo Tzu]

Would you want to be long this triangle bull trap?

I sure wouldn't.

[Roger D.]

One graph is worth a thousand words. The fruit is ripe for the pickin.

$UTIL Avg

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/cd444250-59f0-4c4f-9f53-fa8e8dee9ad3

Roger D.

[vipul garg]

neo,
where is the terminal that you speak of ?

[Roger D.]

Just have a feeling this could get ugly today.

Roger D.

[Michael]

Exact Sciences (EXAS) traded over $9.00 this morning... has nearly TRIPLED since mid-July. How's that for ya Vipul???

:)

[vipul garg]

thats good going michael

[Roger D.]

I can hear it now. The Dow declined 175 pts today as forclosure problems caused concern for the banks. In one day all of a sudden the risk trade is off. The question is for how long?

Roger D.

[Eventhorizon]

RogerD : Another 32 billion of liquid propellant for the banksters to play with. If and when the USD breaks 76,74 and 72,will people realise that we as a nation have sold out everything for nothing?

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Did you read the link you included Rog?? $32bn treasury purchases = principal payments received on MBS / Agencies => net monetization = zip, zero, zilch.

Fed's balance sheet continues to improve in quality is all.

[Roger D.]

JNK the high yield Barclays has traced out a huge top here.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/aff382fa-fd72-4d02-b86b-3a521e37c397

[Roger D.]

Do we have 1 down?

SPX

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/75219b69-4967-45a0-9bfb-46bdceb51133

Roger D.

[Roger D.]

Yep, after looking at several bank stock charts from the open today,we have 1 down. This market has topped.

Roger D.

[Roger D.]

Tomorrow should be a good one,for the bears.

Roger D.

http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/72775258-7f79-4056-8924-468057c71aed

[Sobranie]

Roger, why did you draw a descending wedge, while it is more of a channel, and based on the descending wedge (which is bullish) assume that tomorrow will be a bear day?

[Chico]

Exact Sciences (EXAS) traded over $9.00 this morning... has nearly TRIPLED since mid-July

Michael, I finally bought some around 6. Should have gotten in earlier but still can't complain. Thanks. I'm looking forward to your pick for 2011.

[usdollar]

Looks like the top is in?? or very close by. The dollar will soon get up to 97 on index. Huge tipping point 8-11 November (webbot), Cliff High (webbot) has been shut down by the government www.halfpasthuman.com. Obama is leaving the country between Nov 7 and 10.

European 9/11-2010, same numbers, US 9/11-2001.

(September 11, 9/11-2001 usa),
(9th November, 9/11-2010 europe).

9000 point shave off the dow until the end of Jan 2011. Possible Nuke somewhere, or/and just a catastophic melt down of the banking system in the US will finish wave 4 up (deflation) of the dollar, 97 on index in 3 month time. BofA and Chase will go in the fore front for the possible derivative collapse.

[Sobranie]

well, then you m stock up on tuna cans and toilet paper. Don't forget KoolAid mix..

[Wave Rust]

has it crashed yet? is it down 140 yet?

i cant bear to look.

wave rust

[Zendo]

usdollar, webbot forecast comes and goes, they have missed a lot as well, after the event happened they will try to match it with their prediction, don't waste time. I think if there is a nuke incident, the market could drop a lot, but it won't be 90%. You want to short the world market, you better hope for UFO landing on all major cities and starts to scoop up humans as food, then we might have a total selloff.

I am more worry about if the TBTF banks finally fail and cause further collapse. Dollar might bounce but won't last.

[Dsquare]

Bummer! (file under Phoney war on drugs)

The U.S. Justice Department will prosecute possession and distribution of marijuana in California even if voters approve a ballot measure to legalize the drug, Attorney General Eric Holder said.

The department “strongly opposes” California’s Proposition 19, Holder said in an Oct. 13 letter to former administrators of the Drug Enforcement Administration. The measure would “complicate” U.S. drug enforcement efforts, he said.

The Justice Department will “vigorously enforce” federal drug law “against those individuals and organizations that possess, manufacture or distribute marijuana for recreational use, even if such activities are permitted under state law,” Holder said in the letter.

The proposition, a referendum on the Nov. 2 ballot, would make it legal for anyone age 21 or older to possess one ounce or less of marijuana, and allow local governments to regulate and tax sales even though it is illegal under U.S. law.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-15/marijuana-legalization-measure-in-california-opposed-by-justice-department.html