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« QE2 Sinks Munis - Time to Buy? | Main | Monday Should Give An Important Market Tell »

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

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ES Before opening bell: CLICK HERE

Frontrunner

Hybernation time for bears! All the bears are gone when the top is in. I don´t understand why some people try to catch a top. bear reversals are swift and short, in the time you would jump in, it´s allready over. Where is Roger? Who framed Roger Rabbit? Elliotwave sucks most of the time. The game is played by the pit boy's and is not nice for sissy's and pussy's.

sean

Maybe Tesla could not survive Volt afterall....

Though they are different market, but the electric car market is still too small

I've Been Prechterized

Roger and the Bad News Bears are once again "vaporized" by the Big Bad Bull Market.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat.
Wash, Rinse, Repeat.


MHD

Yelnick.... have you read anything about how long the Volt's batteries are supposed to last?

yelnick

MHD, how long the Volt's batteries last - I assume you mean in years of use? The trick with Lithium batteries is two-fold: manage them so they don't overheat, and manage them so they don't get less effective (memory). This is Tesla's secret sauce, and one of the issues in A123 that has depressed their stock price. Coda I believe started with A123 batteries and switched to another supplier. I have not seen a report of what the Volt estimates. In genberal, these cars need to be able to run 80K+ miles before battery swaps.

yelnick

sean, there is a core philosophical choice in electrics: pure plug in or with a range extender. The Volt is the first range-extender EV and is suitable for general use, broadening its market. Pure plug-ins have a range limitation which narrows their market. Point: the Volt has a much broader market reach than a Tesla.

The next issue down is price, and EVs are more expensive than the gas equivalent. Having driven hiybrids and Teslas, I can say that a car is more than price/performance. EVs drive differently. It should appeal beyond price considerations.

The third issue is performance. A Tesla is a mind-bending ride, incredible torque and acceleration. I haven't driven a Volt but I read it is middling performance but with two interesting features: better torque (responsiveness) than the gas equivalent, and a much smoother/qieter ride.

Michael

If you want a lithium carbonate play for lithium-ion batteries, check out Western LIthium (WLC) and their Kings Valley, Nevada mine:

http://www.westernlithium.com/

Western Uranium Corporation (WUC.V) owns 24.4% of WLC.

The only other suppliers of lithium carbonate are in not-so-friendly places like Argentina, Chile, and China.

Let them eat cake

A different kind of revolution.

Visser ces bâtards. La seule chose qu'ils comprennent est une panique d'argent, donc le leur nous permettre de donner. Longtemps vivre la nouvelle révolution.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Uop5R7E314&feature=player_embedded

MHD

Yelnick, yes that is what I meant as far as battery life. I put a lot of miles on the car so that is a concern for me. I remember reading that Prius batteries are expensive to replace, especially if you drive 50,000+ per year.

Account Deleted

DG !!

Do u think market has topped out and this whole rally from March 09 has ended and we are in a C leg (of whatever a Triangle or a FLAT).

Can u please post your Latest count on SNP500.

Thanx in Advance
VB

Account Deleted

S&P 500 Before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/11/s-500-futures-before-opening-bell_19.html

Tony Michael

Another amazing and scathing report of failed Securities USA and Canadian Regulators and citing the GM Prospectus as well as an interesting SP500 market outlook at:

http://bullbeartrendlines.blogspot.com

Sobranie The Black Russian

Yelnick, as much as I would like to compare Volt to Model-S, and on paper Model-S is a definite winner even with a much higher price. Model-S is not available. Its a shame.

yelnick

MHD, on Li batteries, no one really knows. They try to estimate lifetime usage with stress tests and stats, but their is simply no real world experience yet. Laptop cores go stale much faster than people think, since laptops tend to get replaced from being beaten up in use. Te company Better Place has the concept of selling the car without the battery pack, and renting the packs as needed. They would be able to give you a long-lived car that would cost less than a gas equivalent, and the cost to run would be no more than that of using petrol (it is higher than electricity itself due to capitalizing the battery pack). Really nice concept but requires gobs of upfront capital to create the changing stations and buy the battery packs.

yelnick

Sobranie, the Tesla S looks really interesting. Their cabriolet would be a more practical car than their roadster, and I like convertibles. The company is hustling to ramp up the old NUMMI plant (JV between Toyota and GM) out here in Cali-forn-ia. It will probably price around the BMW 5-series range ($60k) and should have great performance like a Beemer. I would not compare the Volt to the S, since they serve different segments.

The other two EVs to watch are the Coda and the Karma

The Coda is a cheap car like the Leaf and will beat it to market. I would compare the Volt to both the Leaf and the Coda, serving the mass market. I bet the Volt with its range extender will win. Both the Leaf and the Coda would be better off with the Better Place model of leasing the battery pack.

The Karma is like the Tesla roadster but with a range extender. It is to the Roadster what the Volt is to the Leaf.

When these sorts of new concepts get launched into the market, the companies are not sure what will happen. The customer is the big test. Will they prefer the pure EV models like Tesla, Coda and Leaf? Or hedge their driving experience with range extenders like the Volt and Karma?

Wave Rust

I am now short for the long term: NASCAR, CART, Formula 1, and all top fuel dragster track circuits, internal cumbusted engine & their technicians/mechanics (including their shade trees), auto part retailers, convenience gas station stores at interstate exits, jumper cable manufacturers.

I'm going to somehow get long local electricians and extension cord manufacturers.

If I could figure out how to get long lightning, I'd do that too.

:))

wave rust

I can imagine commercial electric passenger drones.
No pilots or flight attendants, no magazines but Ipads for rent.
Just an electrician on board, and a basket with bags peanuts next to the soda machine.

yelnick

wave, the core issue is that the era of cheap oil is over: the delta between energy to extract oil and what we get out is shrinking. this shrinkage will slow economic growth at a fundamental level. oil is almost exclusively a transport fuel these days, so the challenge is to transition to a new transport fuel. natural gas has potential, especially if we can design an economical fuel cell (nat gas in one end, electricity out the other). electricity is the other choice, since it can be generated by nukes, coal or nat gas fairly cheaply. this means the world has an imperative to develop a transition to electric vehicles.

Wave Rust

yel,
I completely agree about delta and its meaning for dramatic change in just a few years. Extracting from shale delta seems to be making its own toxic wastewater while the gain is smaller than expected.

You know I was just 'seeing' what will be gone some day in its present form. Shade tree mechanics, which included about half of the guys in high school, is now just a handfull of kids today.

It made me think of the 60's turbine indy cars and the granatelli's innovation, back when innovation was still allowed. If that much power can be generated from different engines from a similar fuel, then today's plastic go-cart passenger cars should need less of some fuel to power them. When the fuel is "renewable" like electricity to recharge batteries, where is the electricity generated with what fuel? nuclear? LP gas? liquid nitrogen? hydrogen?

America has spent much of its industrial capital developing undeveloped countries. That has created a huge increase in demand for energy and an even greater demand for the sources of the energy and its technology. Yet only a handfull of kids have an interest in the 'engineering' of energy. And not many universities offer a robust energy education.

If more alternatives are not explored, it seems to me that nuclear and gas are the two 50 year-out sources. Each has its own unattractive aspects.

So, its the restriction of innovation that concerns me. For the Granatelli's, their cars were "too fast" and amazing. With shale, its too dirty; with nuclear, its too scary, etc.

I'm including the politics and media propagandists who twist it all, to keep the sheeple confused and dependent on the government. How many different gasoline formulas does CA now have? Is it 11 different ones?

If america doesn't figure it out, somebody else will, like China who is going coal, and nuclear.

It's always been a curiosity to me why nobody has ever really probed and tried to recreate Tesla's power. It's considerd bunk. Another odd thing was the advantages of direct curent.

I'm not a technical guy in any way. I need 3 books with diagrams and a couple of videos to just wire a wall socket. And even then, I'm scared to death! :)

It seems to me somebody somewhere has figured out or could figure out how to get energy out of something that's in abundance, but since its against the self interest of established energy companies, it gets snuffed.

Even though we use crude oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear today, the waste problem still exists and is used as the political and finacial club to beat down innovation.

I like the electric battery powered car, but batteries seem only an interim technology for power. I have always loved golf carts, except when they die on the 14th hole.

Capturing the energy expended/created by a vehicle in motion, whether heat, wind etc. seems to be going toward perpetual motion machines. Those aren't supposed to be possible, until somebody does it.

Somebody will solve these energy problems, or already has. That person is unlikely to be an American. But he may have been educated here, doing research here. The American genius who could have done it, is sitting on a stoop somewhere wishing he had a better math teacher. Knowing he coulda been something, coulda been somebody.

Today, a kid has to be intelligent enough to overcome his education to be able to excel in a profession.

New bumper sticker, "If you can't do math, thank the NEA."

It sounds cynical, until you realize that the education monolith now basically relegates most kids to an "average outcome" in 3rd grade! "He'll never amount to much" is the verdict for most 3rd graders.

So where do we get our energy solution? We can prove that the federal government doesn't educate a single kid, but does do a great job in producing highly gov't-dependent adults.

What I'm saying is we need a new Renaissance across this society. for heaven's sake, the Russians are now going to be launching our space vehicles (whatever they might be!!) The Russians !!??!!

If that doesn't speak volumes, I don't know what does.

rant over ,,,, ranting does no good anyway. People can't hear because they have earpods crammed into their ear canals. They'll be deaf before their time. (I'm long hearing aid technology)

wave rust

DG

oil is almost exclusively a transport fuel these days

I thought the biggest uses for oil were non-transport related? Plastics, fertilizer and such.

Anyway, potentially minor disagreement aside, I agree that the era of cheap oil is over. I say let's burn aging hippies for fuel. That'll give 'em a chance to make at least one positive contribution to humanity.

DG

DG !!

Do u think market has topped out and this whole rally from March 09 has ended and we are in a C leg (of whatever a Triangle or a FLAT).

Can u please post your Latest count on SNP500.

Thanx in Advance
VB

Hi VB,

It's important to wait for confirmation at this point. I want to see the entire rally from the late August low retraced in less time than it took to form, at a minimum, to make a claim at that Degree. Even that's no guarantee because the February to April rally was retraced in full faster than it took to form and that wasn't "the top", so while retracement is something you want to see, it's not the only thing.

Clearly, the decline from the November highs has been larger (although the decline from 1148 to 1126 was actually faster, for its size, than this decline, although it didn't last as long or go as far, which makes me think that this pattern ended at a lower high at the Nov 11 close, which would make the first 22 points of this decline faster than the 22 point decline from 1148 to 1126, or that the initial part of this decline were waves a & b of a Neutral Triangle and wave c of that Triangle was the part where it got pretty severe in terms of decline last week, with wave-d up since then) than anything from the late August low, but it could still simply be a decline within a larger pattern which began at the August low. This decline could just be an x-wave, too.

Also, although I have been discounting Neely's count because I just don't quite find his analysis of the rally from the late August low convincing on a logical level, his forecast of a decline whose form would alternate with the first corrective segment of this pattern did come to pass, so he either got lucky or his analysis is more accurate than I give it credit for.

Account Deleted

S&P 500 Weekend update
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/11/s-500-weekend-update.html

yelnick

wave, nice rant. some random bits:

thorium is a waste product of coal mining and produces an alternative nuclear cycle that burns much cleaner than U-235. Less waste (10%) and fewer long-lived radioactive products (300 yrs vs 10,000 yrs). cannot be made into a bomb. what's not to like? we have lost our nuke industry to korea among others, but we could recreate a clean nuke industry on thorium for around $10B invested, then export it at scale to give the world cheap energy not dependent on fossil fuels.

solves two problems: cheap energy and export indutry

lithium batteries are the EV breakthru. more power per pound. Prius still uses older batteries. That is the Tesla secret sauce. They went for performance in part to overcome the belief that EVs are golf carts. very similar marketing to hot racing cars in the '50s.

nat gas can be used in fuel cells for larger vehicles

DG is right that petrochemicals are used for plastics and fertilizer. we can replace plastics from petrol with plastics from foodstock. happening already and is biodegradeable. fertilizer and jet travel will still need oil. but domestic production should suffice

simple energy future:
- thorium nukes for electricity too cheap to meter
- lithium EVs for persoanl transport
- nat gas fuel cells for larger vehicles
- domestic oil for airplanes, military and DG's fertilizer

Wave Rust

DG sed
"I say let's burn aging hippies for fuel. That'll give 'em a chance to make at least one positive contribution to humanity."

aint many hippies left and they aint renewable either. But, there is one left in the US Senate, from Mass. :)

wave rust

Wave Rust

yel,
what about methane from dung? thats renewable.

The dung out of washington may be its own perpetual renewable resource.

I like the thorium and I forgot that you have discussed it before. Is anybody doing research/application of thorium or using it today?

your list gives a good spread of future fuel possibilities.

if you assume that all are used in the future, that would mean a monstrous boom in the american economy, probably beyond most people's imagination. I might not be here to enjoy it though.

wave rust

Rebecca Barnett

Hi Duncan,
Please contact rbarnett@seekingalpha.com at your soonest convenience to discuss the possibility of your joining our family of elite financial bloggers at Seeking Alpha.

Regards,
Rebecca Barnett
Seeking Alpha Editor

yelnick

wave, thorium reactor was demonstrated in 1968. it was not pursued since (a) incumbent industry didn’t want it and (b) we used the uranium nukes to get weapns grade plutonium. The world is quite different today than at the height of the cold war. Thorium is being researched in China, as well as startups, including one funded by Bill Gates. I am not sure any Stimulus money went to thorium, however, and I doubt Obama's stated interest in nukes as anything more than window dressing.

a lot of folk in the Left Coast have their pet silver bullet to this issue. while they are beginning to realize that wind is a joke and solar will take years to become cost-competitive, they still cling to arguments like "solar cells obey Moore's law, like microprocessors, since they are made like chips." Except it does not obey Moore's LAw, which was al labout shtrinking circuits on chips. Solar cells are different beasts. It is remarkably hard to get them off these false beliefs, which is why Green is more religious in its foundations than political or scientific.

a seemingly more sophisticated group argue for a carbon tax, on the grounds that it makes rebnewables more competitive and will spur whole new industries to emerge. I calmly explain that it is another version of the Broken Window Fallacy but again they stick to their beliefs that taxing energy is simply a way to pay off deficits and not a severe hammering of the economy.

coach factory store

Nature is fair, but society is not.

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