Big Reversals Prior to G20

The drumbeat of criticism of QE2 is getting louder as we approach the G20 meeting later this week in Seoul, and it have spilled over into big reversals in global markets:

• On QE2 Day last week, the Dollar bottomed (DX75.63) and the Euro peaked ($1.43)
• Since then the Dollar Index has been on a run, getting to 77.87 (so far)
• The Euro has plunged to $1.375
• Silver in this period shot up in a parabolic blowoff to over $29/oz.
• After the pits closed today, silver fell 10% and the CME raised margin requirements

Here is a chart of a silver ETF right BEFORE the 10% fall in the overnight market. You can see the QE2-inspired run up and then the classic parabolic blowoff:

Maybe that errant missile off LA was silver taking off (hat tip to EvilSpeculator for that)? Or some wit said it was Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown taking off. Zerohedge gave a handy chart by the Air Force on how to identify unkown flying objects:

Most likely it was a normal contrail misidentified. 

In the same sense, we should be cautious not to jump to a conclusion about these big moves. We are very close to the levels where a reversal is confirmed. The STU put out a special bulletin tonight to note the potential reversal. Still, these big moves may reflect interventions by central banks as they pre-position for what should be a pretty volatile set of meetings on the global currency imbalances. The next few days should prove interesting.

 

Comments

[Roger D.]

"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel."

[vipul garg]

'brevity is the soul of wit'

its a mathematical thing that not all statements which are brief are witty.
when one is witty or trying to be , it helps to be brief.

in any case, i am small time trader .not influential that anyone should be tracking my sentiment esp for a top in gold.
further 1540 will some and soon.
unless gold drops below 1260, no top of any significance is forming or would have formed around these levels.

[Account Deleted]

S&P 500 before opening bell: CLICK HERE

[Michael]

That chart of Silver since Labor Day is the single biggest reason why you cannot simply stick your "head in the sand" as a trader and embrace all of the deflationary chatter from EWI.

[Hockthefarm]

"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel."

Hahahahahahaha!

Thanks for the laugh Roger. And I think there is a lot of truth to it. In my recent travels I felt a real distrust for wall street and America in general.

Culturally I think we have lost a lot of our standing. What goes on in the US is a lot less important to the global community than it was 5 or 10 years ago. We are being tolerated much more than we think.

Hock

[Wave Rust]

you want humour served on a bed of green brevity?

http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sites/fiscalcommission.gov/files/documents/CoChair_Draft.pdf

http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sites/fiscalcommission.gov/files/documents/Illustrative_List_11.10.2010.pdf

These people are trying to serve us warm spit in fine china.

wave rust

[yelnick]

wave, I read the commission's stuff. Lots of decent ideas, such as eliminating a bunch of corporate subsidies as well as duplicative programs, and pulling troops out of Asia and Europe. Love the tax ideas too: corp rate from 35% to 26%, top personal rate to 24% (BTW wouldn't 25% for both be simpler?), no deductions. Could have done more to reduce farm subsidies. Interesting ideas to reduce social security.

My question for you: the commission took their job seriously and these are earnest proposals. Will this be simply another chip in the pot to negotiate against extending the Bush tax cuts, or is this going to be taken seriously?

[Sjaak Trekhaak]

Banned commercial in the USA:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYKAbRK_wKA

[Hockthefarm]

Wow, if there was ever a reason for small government!
Just ask the so called celtic tigers:

""People are really angry. People on social welfare, pensioners and lower income earners feel that they're going to be hit in December's budget, and when that happens there's going to be outrage, because those at the top of the food chain aren't being touched," said Laura Waters, a former employee of retailer Laura Ashley, who lost her job when the company closed its flagship Dublin store.

After an economic boom that saw the country dubbed the Celtic Tiger, which lasted more than a decade, the Irish economy has shrunk for nine of the last ten quarters. Construction, which fueled the boom, has collapsed and taxpayers are facing a €50 billion bill from bailing out the banks that funded the unsustainable growth.

"The people who made the money during the Celtic Tiger and the boom time are now just plowing all their assets in the [National Asset Management Agency] and being protected by the government," Waters said, referring to the agency set up to buy toxic construction loans from banks."

Ireland is a great example of what happens when governments interfere with and control markets to their own end, the so called "greater good". On the plus side, the worse it gets, the less government the Irish will have to contend with in the future. A few missed meals and the gubmint will stick to social sevices, education and health care. Cheap money to create full employment with an unsustainable RE boom will be avoided at all costs.

Hock

[gjfj]

Would recommend that the government blows donkey $%^&*