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« A Thanksgiving Moment for the World | Main | Silicon Roundabout: London Joins the Social Mobile Web Party »

Monday, November 29, 2010

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Wave Rust

yel,

just my non-VC humble opinion

FB seems to be enough of a time consuming place that only a less commercial place could compete for eyeballs.

It may take some time for eyeballs to move away, but eventually the millenials will move and drop FB like a hot iron ,,,, like they do most everything else.

They just don't have another place to go yet. Remember the migration from myspace to FB? better features moved them to FB. FB has alot of structural flaws in its native UI and people will opt for the more secure, less commercial 'next FB'.

FB will disinflate like a leaking birthday balloon. It's the building of the next FB that will take some time.

Ideas give new ideas a better chance to become a reality. Like myspace spawned FB, blogs and texting spawned twitter, ebay spawned groupon. Of the three latest, groupon seems best because it is already built to be monetized beyond its original communal concept of purchasing power. But it is vulnerable to ease of entry and duplication from competitors. So too is Zynga. Like BYD and vontu types.

The time/years between those originals and their better 2nd generation ideas is the thing I would fear as a VC. Similar to how long between primitive search with Yahoo to Google's ascent.

Clean tech was a shove down based on lies, now exposed, that most millenials know like they have been conned. So they have to save face by believing the "idea" that was preached into their heads for years in school from an early age. They still believe "green is virtue but don't take my car away or my ipad, ipod, or my text machine".

If VC's can't predict the 'next FB' or hot tech idea, they toss some money across the waters of the new tech sea, hoping for a hit, right?

When I made that comment about Accel, I went to their site and a few others, and looked for where they had invested. Heck, they could have cured world hunger and HIV for what they have invested in sundry goofy ideas and tech 'maybes'. Well, maybe just world hunger. :)

Obviously these guys aren't millenials, they are Boomers. But they seem like they're trying to be '49ers, scrounging for a nugget in a mountain creek. They have to find a huge nugget to make up for all the time they spent up the creek without clue about what would make it.

Since the economy may be able to survive the Obama presiduncy, the race to be on top when real growth returns as a normal state, in say 3-5 years, is the challenge. To be the next ipod type success and gizmo leader in the "must have" status item.

BTW, yel, who's going to be the "Beatles to the millenials"? They really need one.

wave rust

OracleLurker

Well Yelnick the clearest indication that you are right on social mobile is that the VC world seems to have no intention of letting the public get their hands on any of these names any time soon. Google is apparently going to swallow Groupon. VCs seem intent on hanging on to Facebook right through the meteoric phase of it's growth trajectory - which wasn't the case with yahoo, amzn, etc. Maybe it's the burdensome nature of the ipo today but it just seems like this will be a missed opportunity to ignite another ipo driven tech bubble. What a shame :)

yelnick

wave, you covered a bunch of stuff, so some quick snips:
- FB was always a better play than MS because it had real names, not fakester names
- the Millennials have their Beatles; it is just the Boomers don't care
- if picking the Next Big Thing were easy, the VC business would be a piece of cake. It is not
- and yes, the weakness of the mainstream VC firms is they lack Millennials on staff

Wave Rust

yel,

I thought the next big thing would be obvious. :)

who is the millenial Beatles? I care.

VC's should be careful of choosing millenial ,,,, we are told that 1 in 6 is autistic, most have had some venereal disease, they have no respect for authority, have no view of history passed the last Nelly release, ,,,, but most important, excepting the autistic, they are all ADHD. :))

wave rust

how can these market guys run a bull market with piddling corrections like this one? That is no way to run an airline.

yelnick

wave, being a Boomer I don't know their Beatles but I am sure they believe they have one .. they are not as good at PR as the Boomers were.  


To understand Millennials, read this post: 


http://yelnick.typepad.com/technik/2006/11/marketing_to_mi.html


Boomers:        Just Do It 
Gen Xers:       Why Do It? 
Millennials:      Just Did It

Millennials are civic-minded, team-players, conformists.  They listen to authority.  They work well in hierarchies.  They respect their parents!  But keep their secret digital life to themselves.  At college they sleep in much later than Xers, and haunt the night hours, but when they enter the workforce, the re-orient their patterns and get to work on time.  They are more cautious about sex, avoid drugs, but drink way too much.  Their tastes are more conventional. 

The Millennials are likely to grow up like the Boomer parents.  Civic minded, focused on rebuilding the fallen infrastructure left to them.  Cleaner water, air.  Will want to stop Global Warming but for practical reasons.  Will rebuild international institutions that are fraying under the current Boomer crusade against people who do not share their ideals.  Will view their community as stretching across the Internet to other cultures.  Are very comfortable with diverse, multi-cultural workplaces.  Will use their digital tools in work and play, not seeing a barrier between them.  Are comfortable with hierarchy and structure.  Behave as rationale problem-solvers.  Will likely have large families again.  Declining interest in religion except as a community institution.  Very outward focused, it is not about the inner-me. 

Account Deleted

Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/12/dow-jones-analysis-after-closing-bell.html

Neo Tzu

:::dgsquare once wrote: Neo your count is dumb:::

In my defense to the critics, here's how my count has played out, and its acting well.

Since the October 13, 2010 cycle top both the SPX and Dow appear to be in a running ABC correction... there are 2 important cycle lows ahead I have mentioned before, one in early Dec, one in late Dec, this may be how those cycle lows play out...each waves 3 and 5 of a final c terminal...

Neo Tzu

Notice how the final c of 5 should also close the October 4 gap.

Neo Tzu

Running ABC corrections such as this are explosive.

After the Xmas bearishness both the Dow and SP will explode higher as the bull market resumes.

DG

In my defense to the critics, here's how my count has played out, and its acting well.

That was just a coincidence, your count wasn't correct. It happens. I had the same count from February 2010 to September 2010 and it wasn't correct in the end, either, even though it seemed that way for months and months.

October 13 wasn't any kind of "cycle high", it was just a stop along the way in a pattern which completed in November.

A Running ABC Correction would have to be a Flat, but your Flat's wave-C is already 2 times as large as wave-A. If you have October 13th as your high, then wave-A must have been from the 13th to the 19th, right? It's quite small. Your wave-B is quite powerful, which logically implies that wave-C should be, at most, as large as wave-A, yet I've got wave-A as about 25 points and wave-C as about 50. No way, no how, that's the wave count.

Logical common sense would keep 90% of wave counts from ever seeing the light of day, if only people would use it.

Neo Tzu

For this count to remain accurate, there needs to be some fairly strong selling in next 2-4 trading days into the wave 3 of c....


yelnick

Neo, I haven't weighed in on wave structure as it seems fairly straightforward right now. Of course, the Christmas Ghost of Yelnick McWaWa would be smiling at that statement. Nonetheless, let me step into it:


the recent 1227 high marked the end of a wave 3 we are in wave 4, and it will be sideways (since the wave 2 was sharp)most likely sideways is a triangle, but so far the flat is still possiblea triangle would converge between 1173 at the low and something like 1200-1210 at the higha flat has a B wave up right in front of us .. it should crest 1200 and get into the 1210 or higher range


We have bounced off 1173 twice now, and many have a triple test before this sideways action is done. That would be consistent with a triangle whose a leg ended at 1173, hit it again (c leg) and will hit it one more time (leg e) - a so-called barrier triangle. If so the d leg should not best the b leg high


Carl Futia is on about breaking 1173 and bottoming at 1150. The wave 4 could bottom below 1173 - indeed anywhere above 1130 is theoretically possible - and 1155 range would be a very normal wave 4. If this happens, that would be the C wave down of an ABC flat that may turn out to have a triangle b wave in the middle. 


After either event, a wave 5 up is expected - the Santa Rally most likely. 

Hockthefarm

I'm getting in the spirit these days and tonight I started putting together the music for our New Year's bash. I included some "before my time" Chubby, Fats and Chuck just because they are sooo good. I think the 50's and 60's black artists were just amazing.

Then I come to this thread and feel really old. I get the cloud, but groupons and the social mobile seem like a fad to me. In 10 years when I hang em up, the very last thing I want is a cell phone and email. My phone message is going to be something like "sorry, we are currently out, please call back later". No chance to leave a message.

Hock

Wave Rust

yel,

the so-called millenials that I know are very similar to your description ,,, and I used the phrase "we are told" ,,,, in fact, I should have made clear that millenials are included in the "we" ,,,, and sadly so. why is every new generation doubted by the previous,,,, boomers sure were.

so i agree with your characterization of them ,,,, they are really good, bright and may become the next "greatest generation".

-----
on your wave count, I also agree ,,,, but still have a few answers to the question, "The 5th wave coming is a 5th of what?"

I guess that's the kind of question that keeps us coming back to EW for some guidance. Below 1156 is a ride to 1137 for the low. my guess is for a time consuming boring drag interrupted by a 15 to 30 minute spikes followed by more meandering into late December.

by the time we find out what the 5th is, the market should have burned a few more bears into capitulating, into early 2011.

if DG's principle of time for correction relative to time of rally works out, then 2011-12 could be the 1938-39 analog.


re: millenial Beatles :) I think the beatle music made them unique, like a sinatra or elvis, because their music crossed all lines and all ages of listeners. My rationale is that when I first heard beatles instrumental tunes on the Muzak of an elevator, I was stunned then pleased. :))

maybe millenials will think something similar when fiddycents 'music' is played for a toilet paper TV commercial.
I'm gonna ask a few to see what they say about who their beatles are. :)

wave rust

Wave Rust

hock

thats funny. I'm with you on the phone message but they can still text you. :)

wave rust

Hockthefarm

Sobrainie:

"Hock, liberals have been yelling for 8 years that we are losing our freedoms. Conservatives were ok with fed monitoring phone, net use, library use, illegal prisons, torture, yet when a light pat down or a x-ray machine , which by the way was proposed by Chertoff - a secretary of Homeland security under Bush.

Now, I agree that we would be better off with Israeli type of security at the airports, and taking off shoes or not, or having a 4oz bottle of body lotion vs 30z does not increase likelihood of security breach. Or that the body scanners will catch someone set to sneaking in a box of box cutters in their ass."

How about setting up explosion proof boxes right in the search lines that everyone must walk through board a flight. If someone has a fuse hanging out of their sneaker, light the fucking thing right there on the spot.

While some of your points have a lot of validity, the party stuff leaves me cold. IMO, we have had terrible government in this country for 30 years. Granted, life was fantastic under wild Willy and it was during his tenure that I salted away most of my wealth. But I don't think a reasonable person would attribute those results to him or his party.

We have about twice as much government as we need and we get about 50 cents from every dollar we throw at it. People should rot in prison for Fanny and Freddie. Instead they are running the show. When your taxes go up in retirement and your SS gets cut, look to those 2 tubs of chit as the reason why.

Hock

Account Deleted

ES Before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/12/s-500-before-opening-bell.html

JT

Who let da Bulls out???
LOL!

Whitebear

I thought we would be seeing S&P at 1130, according to a lot of the bulls-turned-bears. Ha ha...

da bear

Charts of the DJIA still seem to me that stocks are in the process of topping out.
Anyone agree?
Anyone disagree?


da bear

JT

ADP payroll data showed Small Business job hiring at +54,000

That's HUGE!

might want to buy puts that expire in, say, June?

da bear...

I put a decent shot at sell-off around end of year when people take tax losses OR beginning of year when people decide they don't want to pay for gains on '10 return.

Maybe like Japan '89-90.

yelnick

da bear, it looks more like a wave 4 correction off the highs of last month, with a wave 5 to go higher. if this were the start of a downleg, it should be running downhill faster than the prior wave ran uphill. Instead it has slowed - the signature of a corrective wave.

yelnick

wave, good question - a fifth wave of what?

Neely sees us in a correction that should end in a couple months. HE has us in a final flat of a multiple-corrective wave. This would be wave 5 of C of the flat.

STU sees us in a C wave of a flat off the April highs, and this would be the fifth wave of C. Prechter thinks the final high happens in January.

Altho they get there in different ays, they are now in agreement as to the wave pattern: 5 of C to end the Hope Rally.

It is after that they disagree. Neely thinks Mar 2009 is THE low of this whole pattern. If this is 1937, we fall, but not to new lows. If it is 1929, we fall much deeper, although a slower pace than in 1932. Prechter says 3x slower. That puts "1932" bottom out into 2016.

I have thrown up a lot of analogies, including 1937, but from a point of view as to when the debt-based credit insanity peaked, the best match is 2007=1928. This suggests the following analogy, which I must say so far is unique to me:

- the dot-com bubble matchs the auto bubble of 1915-1919
- the 2000 fall to 2002 matches the sharp drop in 1919-21
- the housing bubble matches the Roaring '20s
- the peak of debt in 2007 matches 1928
- the crash of 2008 matches the crash of 1929
- we would now be in the 1931 period of European debt crises that caused the floor to drop out of the world economy

Michael

The Economy is starting to show decidedly better numbers and the "tone" of the market is improving.

Interestingly enough, 100 straight weeks of inflows into Bond Funds has just been snapped. Gee, where do you think that money will be going???

Can you say equities?

Sure.
I knew ya could.
:)

vipul garg

yday i had remarked that we will not see this level for some time again.

there are still some points to be had on the spx , so as a trader i would concentrate on that .

though i absolutely donot agree at this time , that there is some final burst happening till 1230 and then bear begins,
but lets assume it were so, then neely has 1230 as maximum limit.where is stu's max limit?

gold is near top, eurodollar is 1.30, spx is not ready to go down..
maybe we ewavers know something that the markets dont.


OracleLurker

seems like we are still in 3 - now stair stepping to at least 1250-75 and then maybe 4 starts in the 1st quarter of next year.

Hockthefarm

Y:

"floor drops out of the world economy"

Here is an interesting summary of what to expect from equities in the next 10 years:

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

Hock

joe

You know it occurs to me - only an idiot tries to get an exact top.

Get within 10 percent of it and you do well.

I like your analysis on this Yelnik.

Consistency isn't your strong point, obviously

The Economy is starting to show decidedly better numbers and the "tone" of the market is improving.

So, now that the The Economy is doing well, you're saying the the market should benefit, after saying about a hundred times that there's no or a negative correlation?

UFB.

When JT starts gloating, you know the bullish spike is over (check the archives if you don't believe me)

Who let da Bulls out???
LOL!

You know, for a guy who is constantly yammering about how he's a "trader", you sure seem to be stuck in a perma-bull mindset. What's the matter, don't you have an account that lets you short-sell? Geez.

Hockthefarm

I'm getting there: flash mobbing, internet meme. Let's hope the Millennials really put it together.

If we set the first Millennial birth year at 1982 (some arguement here), then the front liners are starting to hit 30. They say that if you don't learn to work hard by the time you are 30, you never really do learn how to work. I think the youth employment numbers below are appauling. The boomers have sure let this generation down in this regard. ACORN should be really proud of itself. Funny we don't hear about them any more.

Let's hope the Millennials can really get on their feet and do something:

Economic prospects for the Millennials have worsened due to the late-2000s recession. Several governments have instituted major youth employment schemes out of fear of social unrest such as the 2008 Greek riots due to the dramatically increased rates of youth unemployment.[56] In Europe, youth unemployment levels are very high (40% in Spain, 35% in the Baltic states, 19.1% in Britain[57] and more than 20% in many more). In 2009 leading commentators began to worry about the long term social and economic effects of the unemployment.[58] Unemployment levels in other areas of the world are also high, with the youth unemployment rate in the U.S. reaching a record level (18.5%, July 2009) since the statistic started being gathered in 1948.[39] In Canada, unemployment amongst youths aged 15 to 24 years of age in July 2009 was 15.9%, the highest it had been in 11 years.

Hock

yelnick

Hock, these generations repeat in a pattern. The Boomers were like the Progressives (Teddy Roosevelt) who were the kids of the Civil War generation, and were like the Transcendentalists, who were the kids of the Revolutionary War generation. The GI Generation (Boomer parents) came of age - in their 30s - during the Great Depression. The Civil War generation came of age during the great depression of 1837-42. The Revolutionary War generation grew up in the depressionary times of the 1760s when England cut off the US money supply.

Sobranie

Yelnick, I am going to go ahead and call this a generational shift function.
I wonder how this generation shift would parallel when compared to the world.
I assume the closer cultures have this generational shift function to be almost same. UK, Canada, USA, would all have almost exact function, how about Russians, and the rest of the East Europe, that have went through the same changes in history, but from a different angle and perspective. The Afghan war was their Vietnam. The break up of the country of the early 90's was just a blimp in the minds of American youth, but a HUGE change for everyone east of Berlin.
The reason for this interest is the ever expanding flatness of the world. The immigrants are not only assimilated, but bring in changes to the native population, and with this change the generational shift. It seems that the American generation(000) are coincided with an approximate end of the liberal era of the late 70's and the birth of new conservatism of early 80's. But there is a large number of youth, that have not had parents that went through this period, and as such could not have influenced their millennial kids.

There is also such thing as latent generational maturity. Which is not necessarily a bad or a good thing as latent maturity would be. Let me explain.

Every generation has a certain trait according to the theory of generational shift. X - lost gen, boomers - idealists, etc. There is always going to be certain portion of the generation that have not went through same growing up phases as the majority of its kin, for one reason or another. And I believe that it is a natural state for most people to fit in, even if fitting in means to rebel. Example of goth kids, punk, etc... So, if that is the case, a certain portion of the generation will probably reach the status quo of its generational trait somewhat later.

I am not sure that this made any difference 30 years ago, but with today's rate of change this might significantly magnify its effect.


JT

NEWS FLASH FROM YESTERDAY:

GOLDMAN SACHS TURNS BULLISH ON THE US ECONOMY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 5 YEARS!

Good luck Tyler Durden.
You're gonna need it.

Whitebear

Bullish spike is over??? Ha ha...

XLF back above 200MA and 50MA. Where are you, Neo-Tzu, and the likes who turned bearish?

When JT starts gloating, you know the bullish spike is over (check the archives if you don't believe me)

Bullish spike is over??? Ha ha...

XLF back above 200MA and 50MA. Where are you, Neo-Tzu, and the likes who turned bearish?

Posted by: Whitebear | Thursday, December 02, 2010 at 12:18 PM

So JT had his "broken clock" moment. Who cares about 1 instance. Like I said (look at my username) check the archives for the track record of his gloating. That guy's the Roger D of perma-bullishness. Has been from the minute he showed up here.

You don't have to be a bull or a bear to recognize a guy who doesn't understand squat about the market's movements when you see one.

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