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« Dogs of the Dow are the Cat's Meow | Main | Iceland or Ireland »

Sunday, December 12, 2010


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Here is the type of person we need in this country:


Wave Rust

crude, gaso, and usd are all ya need to figure where the short term is going.

short term(a few days)
92-93 crude
2.46 gaso
79, maybe 78 usd

wave rust


I'm not seeing anything predictive whatsoever in that trin chart above.


So the STU expects the long term top in silver to occur on what would essentially be the first significant reversal in silver stocks after making cyclical bull market highs. Really? Straight up and straight down. Has that ever happened? If history is any guide whatsoever we should expect enormous gains to be accompanied by equally great volatility during the final phase of the silver bull market. Most silver and uranium mining companies are up around 100% this quarter and just now flirting with their pre- '08 meltdown highs. Now perhaps the risk adjusted return on this sector is just terrible, although I doubt it given the amount of leverage you would need to duplicate that return in an index fund, but I'll admit the volatility does somewhat limit the exposure you can allocate there - even using stops.

Nevertheless if you are just trading you're own account I'm not sure that risk adjusted return is necessarily the be all and end all of trading during all market seasons - particularly the third wave of a cyclical bull market in which billions upon billions are being pushed further out onto the risk curve. What was Livermoore's risk adjusted return when he margined himself short prior to the '29 crash? How about Soros when he bet the house against the pound? I'm all for back-testing (and believe me I've spent all weekend doing it) but there will be periods, albeit very infrequent, in which an amateurish approach to the markets will make a mockery of even the most sophisticated index trading system. Of course the amateur's problem is they never recognize when the game is up...


ZeroHedge is so hazardous to your financial health, that I don't even know where to start.

Anyone that actually trades the markets for a living knows full well that the Most Active list on the NYSE has been dominated by the likes of Citicorp (764 million shares) and Bank of America (240 million shares) and even General Electric (224 million shares) for awhile now...

In otherwords, the TRIN is being "skewed" by several of the financials, just as the TRIN was on the way down during the collapse in the markets in Q4 of 2008 and Q1 of 2009.

There's no predictive value there.



"I have never met a smart, educated woman that can even stand to have a conversation about her"

""I have met many.""

Rusty: I am going to assume that you are kidding here.

""But I well remember how evil most educated elitist people thought Reagan was before he decided to run.""

I'll admit that I defended Sarah P when she burst on the scene and eventually ran as vp. I thought the media and "evil elitest women's groups" were particularly hard on her. But the fact remains that she is not particularly bright, more of a gym teacher mentality in a small town. I think we got enough of that from Dubya and frankly I don't think we could take another 4 years of intellectual stupidity. If it is SP, then Obama keeps the job.

And while Obama's borrowing scares me, he is one very bright individual. It is nice to look up at a president for a change.

As for Ronnie:

At the state level he let every institutionalized nut out on the street. Ask people that work in that field what they think of him.

He was the first modern president to understand that you could run up massive deficits just as long as you opened every speech with "the evils of big government spending". And 30 years later, look where we are. Same old stuff, just a lot bigger.




"Common sense and picking the right people to run the government is the key to some success as a pres. Not foreign policy experience, or legal experience, etc. imho."

I agree in part. But isn't the real mark of a leader someone who checks up on the appointees, absorbs what they are doing and makes changes as needed? That takes a lot of brains imo, to absorb stuff quickly and correctly. Dubya was like the average 8 year old in this regard. In fact I don't think he ever checked up on anyone. And look where Sleepy Time got us. I don't think Obama is spending his time sleeping.



Hey Visitors,
Its really nice blog. Would like to add that Share market is very volatile now a days. Apart from regular traders and investors FII are also there. FII and other investment houses are big fish who can easily eat up smaller fishes. Here fishes refer to normal traders and investors  .

Now the question is how to avoid losses? Well answer looks simple by timing market, by following certain strategies, by keeping eye on happenings and with the help of technical research.. But Is it as simple as to mention here?

Profitable trading requires lot of things. One has to master in many fields. Everyone can’t earn from speculation one has to trust on technical analysis for regular profit. One should remember Learn and earn is the funda of the stock market trading.


Account Deleted


Wave Rust

sorry, but i see no evidence of 'brightness' in oblahblah ,,, at all. no history of it academically or behaviorally. nor any current evidence since he assumed the office.

but if you want cunning, oblahblah shops at the same megalomaniax-R-us store as maddoff, trump, and soros.

the old saw applies ,,,, you can con some of the people some of the time ,,,, etc.

and, no I wasn't kidding about Palin. Lots of people like and lots have written her off.

Presidencies are filled by human beings, full of flaws and hopefully some strengths. W was way better than gore or kerry.

remember gore running around the west wing freaking out about the 'blue dress'? imagine what he would have done on 9/11.

electing pres's is a pretty good process. the flawed humans running have to convince the 100 million flawed American human voters across the country twice, primaries then general election, to give their flawed human ambitions a chance to govern.

flawed humans make mistakes when voting. Oblahblah is a great example of that mistake. most of the time the flawed human beings who vote get it right. when they don't get it right, like now, they resist.

wave rust

Wave Rust

the FOMC annual gift exchange is tuesday

what do you get the ben-bernank this year if you drew his name?

a bond crash?
a commodity crash?
a market crash up?
a chinese poo poo platter, with a side of Bond sauce?
a euro crash?
a basel bagel with a cheezy yen?
a weekend on jekyl island?

any suggestions out there? :))

wave rust

Mamma Boom Boom

Hock, Wave, I don't expect you to agree with me.

Fundamentally, here's the setup: The government induced la-la land is rolling over. The markets are starting to recognize this and the baton is being handed to weak hands. The economic crisis is starting to resume, and it won't be slow and grinding, as some bears have predicted. It will be very wicked, unbelievably wicked. The problem is much worse than it was in 2007.




"Fundamentally, here's the setup: The government induced la-la land is rolling over."

I don't disagree. The fundamental back drop for the Prechter/Dent arguement is that credit bubbles must eventually get cleared via the price mechanism.

OblahBlah(good one wave) and the Bernank are fighting that fundamental by creating massive debts for future generations to pay off long after they have gone fishing.

My conclusion is that the ketchup will eventually flow out of the bottle. Good luck picking the when.

That Irish diatribe I posted earlier was really aimed at the rat Greenspan. As soon as someone creates a product people don't understand, you can rest assured that the big sale is on. And boy was it ever. It really speaks to how institutionally weak we are as a people. Someone should have stepped in. We had a rat and an 8 year old at the plate. Good luck figuring out when it ends.


Mamma Boom Boom

>Good luck figuring out when it ends.

That's why we have 'technical analysis'.


That's why we have 'technical analysis'.

Right. As I said: good luck figuring out when it ends. For the last year the STU has done a great job waving exactly where gold has been. Right down to the minutia.

My conclusion, instead of bashing Prechter and Dent is that weak government with unlimited power bring a whole new degree of freedom to the table. Chit happens, but just not when you think it should happen.



"The economic crisis is starting to resume, and it won't be slow and grinding, as some bears have predicted. It will be very wicked"

Your comments are interesting since, from my following this site, you've not been a perma-bear or bull.

I'm supposing the jump in interest rates is signaling (and will be one of the factors) in the roll-over? As an aside, I filled up my gf's car this weekend -- I generously said, I'll take care of it -- and was shocked that it cost $47! I hadn't realized gas has run up to $3.15. I'm not particularly price sensitive, but, this was a wake-up.

So, do you think skyrocketing interest rates, commodity inflation and a dropping dollar will be the roll-over dynamic? Such forces could comprise a vicious feedback.

Hank Wernicki

4/23/10 will be revisited in a week or two, maybe sooner !

Be careful

Mamma Boom Boom

>So, do you think skyrocketing interest rates, commodity inflation and a dropping dollar will be the roll-over dynamic?<

Interest rates should continue up, debtor quality is falling rapidly. The dollar will rise for some time, the Euro is toast. Commodities are peaking out. IMO


Hank, tell me more!


"...and, no I wasn't kidding about Palin. Lots of people like her and lots have written her off." - Wave

Sarah Palin is a quitter.

She QUIT on the people of Alaska to go out and do a book deal and book-signings. America does not like QUITTERS.

Politically, she's toast.

Not So Silent Cal

Most reliable signal I've seen is Prechter shouting his warnings. Such moments have almost always marked bottoms. History may not be any guide but, if you think it is, there is no better guide than Prechter shouting fire.

Hank, didn't you call for another May 2010 style crash a month or two ago? What makes you think you're going to be right this time?

Mamma Boom Boom

>Moody's Warns It May Cut US Rating if Tax-Cut Deal Becomes Law<


Speaking of Prechter and EWI...

I remember his new service that caters to labeling individual stocks with wave counts recommended shorting FCX around $83 in September.

Now trading $117 today.


da bear

EWI has adopted my long-term count on gold.
On silver they have this rally as being a gigantic B Wave off the 1980 high.
They think this because silver is about 60% of it's all time high.
Strangely enough, that count looks like the best fit. If so, then gold is probably in a B Wave too. According to this I have a good target low if anyone wants to know...

da bear


How many times have the folks at EW used adjectives such as "stunning", "eye-popping", "eye-opening", "once in a lifetime opportunity" to describe current market conditions? It almost seems they have abandoned using wave counts and instead rely on gut instincts to time market turns. I think we are ripe for a correction now, but will probably see new highs sometimes next spring. A whopping 85 percent of S&P stocks are above their 200 day MA. Although that's a deterioration from a record 96 percent in Aug of last year, still too high of a number to mark tops and still indicative that market breadth is strong.

Wave Rust

thanks for that opinion about palin.
I'm saving that one. :)

wave rust

Wave Rust

you are right.
i don't agree.
but i have the advantage of having seen the current movie before.

review the tepper interview if you want some input.

short answer ,,,, the economy isn't rolling over ,,,, and even if it was, that would make me even more bullish about the stock market.

what does the bond market mini-crash mean to you?

frikin stock markets everywhere are going to rock.

bank it.

i'm not a perma bull, except in bull markets. you aint never seen nothin like diss bull. never. nobody has ,,,, not even an old fart like me. this is going to be like a whole herd of Secretariats eventually.

heck, i remember being one of the very very few who was bullish in march 2009 (it's a bit vague now, my memory lasts about as long as a swing trade LOL).

wave rust


There are indeed non-confirmations in the 52 week high readings. While the NYSE made a new high, the number of new 52 week highs did not take out the early November highs - a definite divergence. This would likely mean a correction coming soon.

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