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« Iceland or Ireland | Main | QE2 Report Card »

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

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Wave Rust

posted in 2009

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/12/a-flurry-of-emergency-updates-suport-the-santa-rally.html#tp

italics are current grading of mostly serious of my "future sniffings"

========

Reflections from the New Decade's Inflections- 2010 to 2019

1. The current Bull Market finally gets the full love it has deserved since March 2009.
==not enough love yet ,,,, but it's coming

2. Buy and Hold is back and dominates.
==old farts have seen this movie before but back then when they were young farts, they weren't riding the bull. this time they are holding.

3. What most believe was the beginning of a Socialist American government is actually the true death and end of world Socialism.
==seems to be going in that direction with some momentum with the 2010 election.

4. Europe becomes a large museum.
==this one may be too optimistic. it may only become a "fly-over" tour with Snake Plisskin as tour guide.

5. China's civil war ends with 5 new permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
==maybe India, much to Pakistan's chagrin

6. African nations begin to aggressively develop and become the new Asia.
==not so much

7. Global security revolves around battles for control of water, not oil. "Peak water" is the new scare-the-people tool after most of the world's potable water is contaminated by.
==too easy

8. Abundant medical discoveries create cures and new incurable diseases.
==new silver ion technology is successfully treating cholera in haiti in 3-5 days, silver in solution at 10ppm

9. New nano technologies are developed to exploit the rich frontier of the world's oceans.
== nothing yet

10. In his second term, American President David Pretraeus successfully opposes the Constitutional Convention's new amendment to the U.S. Constitution that would allow U.S. Presidents a third term in office.
==2012 or 2016 for his 1st term??

11. The Nobel Peace Prize is discontinued.
==Putin in 2011 ought to do it.
____________________________

it is still in a 4th. when the dollar breaks up for its 5th, out of this descending tri, then the 4th will be over and the 5th can begin.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah

wave rust

Posted by: Wave Rust | Thursday, December 10, 2009 at 11:24 PM

==========================

not too good, could be worse. :)
wave rust

Wave Rust

this comment isn't too bad,
and i still think the same about the bull ,,,,
maybe it's bigger than i can imagine, since my brain is now only a mere shadow of its former cheez-puff self.

=========
It's just a little intraday 4 ... again.

Virginia Jim's dates are interesting but if a December 10th arrives as a low - then buy it. If it's a high sell it for a few days or maybe a few weeks - but not a crash back to and below the March lows... maybe the July lows, but I'm more doubtful of that as time passes and markets rise.

Somebody stated that the market is overbought. I don't see it on daily or weekly. I see the divergences but they have been worked off rapidly with minor down moves. Now, January 2004 was very overbought, but it still took over 2 months to turn down.

Ask yourself, will I be bearish at spx 1150? at 1200? at 1250?

At worst, the current count is rising in an A wave correction, with more up to come. The likely correct count is much more bullish. Much! As in, pulsive. As in, a bull market. Like a big beautiful and confusing wave 1 (pick your favorite degree!)

Two things- 1. Remember that ewave is a structural plan and does not dictate. It accommodates.
2. The Fed has a virtually infinitessimal amount of money. Don't fight the Fed. Ever.


I trade intraday and daily timeframes.

I trade what I see, and I don't see near term overbought, just divergences for quick pullbacks within a trading range of higher highs and higher lows.

I'll get short term bearish when the SPX makes a lower daily low and close, than the recent troughs. First warning will be when the rising trendline oonnecting the lows since July is broken significantly, just under Dow 10,000 now.

SPX 1125-50 could turn the index sideways-to-down into mid-February - frustrating the bears. That will be a trading feast.

Watch for a run back to the gaps on Dow and SPX in early November. Should be a nice swing.

Merry Christmas

wave rust

Posted by: Wave Rust | Thursday, December 03, 2009 at 09:27 AM
===========


it may sound disingenuous, but i'm not bragging. i'm hoping that some permabears will change their mindset to neutral and be objective. don't think about the economy when thinking about the markets (except for jobless and unemployment data; and what the Fed is doing)

ask yourself about the ongoing treasury crash. what's causing it? ,,,, rising rates ,,,, why are rates rising? it isn't deadly inflation. So what is it?

Then ask what happens when bonds get a daily haircut? where does the money go thats been chased out of bonds? it goes right back where it came from in 2007 and 2008!!!!! did you say equities?

as strother martin said to cool hand luke, "... you gonna get your mind right."

Merry Christmas to all

wave rust

Wave Rust

yel
sir, that ndx chart is a huge inverted head and shoulders, if you believe that H&S are something other than continuation patterns.

NDX 3300, anyone??

wave rust

Account Deleted

ES Hourly Chart

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/12/s-500-futures-before-opening-bell_15.html

Ive Been Prechterized

Where ist das P3 ???

da bear

Prechterized,

The above chart is showing a nearly completed five-wave Elliott Advance.
Just have to finish the fifth wave of this 2 of 3 of C. C down started in 2007. With 1 of 3 down ending in the spring of 2009 for the DJIA. Since then we have had the 2 of 3 rebound rally. After this is over Primary 3 of 3 should begin. A historical parallel to this would be the late 1930 to 1932 implosion.

da bear

JT

All of the PERMA-BEARS and followers of Prechter just can't stop drinking the "P3" Kool-Aid.

Good Luck with that.

The Economy is ACCELERATING, not declining. There will be no "double-dip". The train has been leaving the station for several months now here in North America. If you still don't believe me, simply look at JOY GLOBAL's earnings results and comments about North America ( not China ).

Mamma Boom Boom

Over half the population says the economy is getting worse.

Neo-Mamma

http://content.screencast.com/users/MammaB/folders/Default/media/6f8f7937-e0a1-4bdf-afe9-f7741a158b58/Clipboard01.jpg

K.D.

You nailed it, JT.
Prechter & STU has been off the mark since March 2009.
100% short, the man said. When that didn't work, he said
to go 200% short.
Some advice! Lots of money down the drain.
And now, with some days of modest decline, the bears
lick their soar paws and start singing the same, old song
again.
The only problem is I'd wish there were more bears out
there, more pessimism and less optimism.

yelnick

KD, on Prechter, your facts are off:

+ he went LONG in the last week of Feb, calling the Mar 2009 bottom closer than any other major pundit
+ he forecasted a return to Dow10K before the top
+ he stayed long after the June 2009 correction; Neely called a top
- he called a 200% short in August and got burned
- he called it again in Nov and got burned
+ he called the April 2010 top a week before and caught the flash crash
- he missed the September-to-Remember QE2 rally
+ he did NOT call the top on Nov9 but said it was a wave 3 with a final 5 to go
= he expects this wave 5 to end in January, but this may not be the start of P3
= the four year cycle plus fib relationships puts the top possibly into Jan 2012

Today he issued an EWT which said "most traders, investors, advisors, money managers and economists view a bearish outcome as remote."

His call is of course that "the technical conditions of the stock market is compatible with an approaching resumption of the Supercycle degree bear market."

I have a post tomorrow that shows the Japanese stock market vs Japanese QE. Bottom line: stocks go up as long as the QE pump continues. hat too would support a Jan 2012 top

Account Deleted

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/12/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_16.html

Hank Wernicki

Tim flatly admitted he doesn't have a clue about this market

Be careful what you read ...

HANK


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