Markets are generally up even as the Egyptian situation worsens. This makes the financial press look pretty foolish for attributing the fall on Friday to Egypt. I commented in my weekend post that all the time a market move is said to be caused by a news event when instead it was driven by technical factors, and this is just another of a myriad of examples. Yet the punditry persist in this error.
Much more important today were some good economic reports, including the Chicago PMI at really high levels. Tomorrow the national ISM report comes out and should show an increase in production. Also income was up, although income less transfer payments was essentially flat, meaning much of the increase is government life support. Spending was up much more than income, meaning it came out of savings, and seems to have been largely driven by rising food and energy costs, not an increase in core demand.
Over the weekend a lot of commentary on the GDP Report came in. The most interesting is from Econophile, a former bear who has been ahead of the curve on noticing a bottoming and the start of a recovery. His take on this GDP report is that it too is due to government life support, in this case largely a consequence of QE. He thinks the positives are largely a "mirage" and may be revised away next month
Here's another view of The-Great-Decline-Of-American-Manufacturing:
http://www.screencast.com/users/MammaB/folders/Default/media/98af8471-6754-49bf-8365-ff6366ceab0a
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Monday, January 31, 2011 at 12:48 PM
The Dow Jones just recorded the BEST January since 1997 at +2.7%
The Bears got crushed this month.
Posted by: Michael | Monday, January 31, 2011 at 01:22 PM
Yes, they did. I suspect there are lots of "Elliotticians" who are just bears looking for data, arguments, and waves to justify their bearish bent. I also suspect that is true of bulls! Elliott is mumbo jumbo that serves the purposes of whatever religion you adhere to.
Posted by: Leon | Monday, January 31, 2011 at 02:01 PM
>The Bears got crushed this month.<
So what kind of juice does that make? I'm sure it's not fit to drink, but maybe you could wax your car with it, or water-proof you sail. (just thinking out loud)
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Monday, January 31, 2011 at 02:20 PM
Ugh. Idiots. Me included.
Posted by: Leon | Monday, January 31, 2011 at 02:30 PM
Yelnick - unbelievable. I watched Geithner last night on Bloomberg / Rose at Davos. Interesting interview. Econophile's report, however, has more credibility and is much more down to earth than the smug, self-congratulatory clap-trap that I was listening to last evening. My take - either Geithner is very VERY badly informed, or just plain lying through his teeth. I hope for his sake that he is right, and that Econophile's report is wrong!
Posted by: Chabazite | Tuesday, February 01, 2011 at 01:40 AM
Neely stopped out again on his short. Another "larger and faster" move that signaled...absolutely nothing.
Posted by: Timmy | Tuesday, February 01, 2011 at 09:12 AM
Chab, the interesting factoid this morning is that while ISM is up (61%), input costs are up much more (81%), meaning some sort of margin squeeze is underway.
Posted by: yelnick | Tuesday, February 01, 2011 at 11:06 AM
meaning some sort of margin squeeze is underway.
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Yelnick - As you may know, KD has been banging on about this for months. Here is his latest http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=178873 No need to respond.
Posted by: Chabazite | Tuesday, February 01, 2011 at 11:45 AM
There is no mechanism to resolve strategic disagreements between Mr Huang and Bain Capital, or clarity over his ability or desire to retain his Gome holding
Posted by: Chanel Replica Watches | Tuesday, February 15, 2011 at 09:55 PM