I appreciate all the concern in the comments on my transit back through Narita, but it came and went and I still have my hair. I spent about an hour in transit, and the food on the return was worse than normal, telling me that it was not sourced from Japan.
The risk I took was very low. I wrote about it in my other travel blog: Bananas Are Radioactive Too. The risk I took was about the risk of a daily commute. You guys who commuted for the six working days I was gone were taking on much more risk.
Investing trades in risk and investors get it wrong all the time. Right now the bet is not to fade the Fed, to believe QE Infinity will continue to pump this market. The calls to end both QE and the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) are increasing. Andy Kessler just explained in the WSJ how ZIRP crushes capital formation and stifles the recovery. Risk on.
The other bet is that the four-year re-election cycle will pump the market. This is the most predictable cycle, and its causation is clear. Yet Obama shot this bullet early, right away in fact, and the Stimulus is already fading to the point it is acting as a drag on GDP. He is facing political headwinds from the grumpy Republican House, and if he loses QE, he is left with only a war to pump the economy. Libya? Yet another Middle Eastern war threatens to keep oil prices high, acting as a bigger drag than war-spending.
You can see the impact of this in this chart showing the current market vs. the normal re-election market. Now, "normal" here is an average of many years, so we should not expect any one market to actually match the curve; also, the curve is not combined with statistical variability (eg. Bollinger Bands), so cannot we easily assess if this one is still within the bands of "normal". The key, though, is the extent the recent dive has taken this market off the normal pattern. Broken pattern betokens bigger risk.
Well, its nice to be worried about - isn't it?
For my part - I wasn't too concerned with the current radiation levels - much more concerned that Michio Kaku could be right and this could get a whole lot worse with little or no warning. He thinks it should be entombed now.
Glad you are back.
Joe
Posted by: joe | Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 02:45 PM
Innovation #3 - NEoWave SELF-DEFITION
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZWAaupdDkA
Posted by: George | Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 04:23 PM
sometimes a fat pitch is just a fat pitch. higher prices lie ahead - probably after a slight pullback which emboldens the bears looking for a failure around the declining tops trendline. This belief of mine is based entirely on technical market conditions - how that squares with every one of your valid fundamental points I have no idea.
Posted by: OracleLurker | Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 07:01 PM
Duncam
You said you were quitting this useless blog. YPu haven't
Are you a man or a clown?
Glenn Loser Neely
Posted by: Glen Loser Neely | Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 03:16 AM
Awesome blog! Thanks a lot for sharing this information
Posted by: Metatrader Indicator | Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 04:24 AM
Duncan. please stay with us. Your work is treasured by a lot of ppl.. Trust me.
Posted by: Edwin | Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 08:10 AM
Yelnick, welcome back. I'm glad you're getting out more but there's no harm in digging into K-waves and long term counts now & then either.
Joe, what do you make of this recent opening of a 3rd front in the Islamic Wars? Is this the major war after the financial collapse?
Posted by: Virgil | Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 10:52 AM
I suppose its possible Virgil - but really, it should start east of there. It was nearly a unanimous thesis in the military school that the next likely major conflict would be "continued" in the China/Burma theater. Could be as far east as the Koreas or as far west as India - but in that area.
TO me it was then and is now either internal conflicts in China - starting with a revolt from the inland provinces or Korea. Its a coin flip.
Joe
Posted by: joe | Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 03:27 PM
SPX Analysis after closing: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/03/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_24.html
Posted by: Account Deleted | Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 04:55 PM
There is a pattern of 7 month turns that goes back quite a ways from March. A multi month low may already be in place.
Posted by: upstart | Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 06:20 PM
Neely seems to be doing well again in S&P and Gold..
GLN ... you should get back to Neely subscription instead of whining about Duncam (!)'s inability to stay quit
GWN
Posted by: Glen Winner Neely | Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 11:47 PM
Your readers might be interested in how to treat their radioactively contaminated drinking water:
http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/2011/03/22/dangers-properties-possible-uses-and-methods-of-purification-of-radioactively-contaminated-drinking-water-e-g-in-japan/
A Japanese translation seems underway, see comment by Takuya there. Maybe someone wants to help with other languages?
Posted by: CrisisMaven | Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 11:56 AM
.
Posted by: - | Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 05:37 PM
You may have something upstart.
Posted by: joe | Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 07:46 PM
Good insight. I try to touch on the same points in my blog. And I always find my members forwarding me some of your thoughts. I'm thinking this market may run higher into May!
Posted by: Jay D | Saturday, March 26, 2011 at 02:24 PM