Employment Brackets the Over/Under

The over/under is a betting level: the predicted points in a game. Last month employment disappointed, but it was blamed on weather. After that report, the catch-up level was 260k jobs in this report. We missed that by a mile. The catch-up number was lowered since then down to 196k by those mysterious "they" who set expectations. (At least in Vegas we know who the bookies are.) This report came in bracketing the over/under:

• 192k new jobs, below 196k expectations
• 222k private sector jobs, above 200k expectations

Stocks are down today, possibly reacting to an under. More on that below. The spinmeisters are out in full force, however. Just before the report the herd expected the over (60% thought it would beat). After the report the consensus of opinion appears to be this comment from CalculatedRisk:

This wasn't a great report. Heck, it wasn't a "good" report. But it was a little better than most recent reports.

At this stage in the business cycles, upward revisions are more likely going forward, so this report should improve with more data. What is less clear is if new jobs will ramp up, or just remain steady - the average between January and February is only 127K new jobs, below what is needed to keep up with new entrants to the workforce. The 192k number is a catch up from a dismal January number of 36k, which was revised up to 63k. 

The market reaction has been mixed. Bonds improved but reflect a reasonable chance of a rate increase later this year. Stocks may be reacting to a modest recovery, which makes QE3 less likely, and would remove the speculative pump under markets. On the other hand, the report shows no surge in wage inflation, meaning QE has not yet spilled over into wage inflation:

The below-the-surface issue with the report is a continued detrioration of the overall employment picture. While the unemployment rate is down, the rate of participation and the ratio of employed to population continue to fall even faster. This means statistically the unemployment rate has dropped not because of more jobs (numerator) but because of fewer workers (denominator). Without those dropouts, the unemployment rate would be 11%. 

Comments

[da bear]

link to dollar chart as seen at Jim Sinclair's site:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f-2fmxP-czA/TXA6Fbw9N7I/AAAAAAAAEMY/0ut-HXj47QI/s1600/UDX.JPG

I think that the B wave top was in 2000, then a small wave 1 down and wave 2 up, then the wave 3 low into 2008, since then we are in wave 4. I think the dollar makes one more move up, then wave 5 of C down begins and heads towards 50-60.

da bear

P.S. I guess if the dollar really breaks down though that the risk of a crash is very high.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

---------- HOUSING ----------

In an ominous sign for the still fragile U.S. housing market, the percentage of
distressed properties in home purchase transactions climbed to the highest level in
nearly a year in January.

Meanwhile, first-time homebuyer activity fell sharply last month – the result of
more expensive financing options and tightened mortgage underwriting standards.

Perhaps the biggest news in the January data was a sharp rise in the HousingPulse
Distressed Property Index or DPI, a key indicator of the health of the housing
market. The DPI, or share of total transactions involving distressed properties, climbed from 47.2% in December to 49.6% in January. The increase was a continuation of a trend as the DPI registered just 44.5% back in November.

At the current rate of increase, distressed property transactions could account for
the majority of home sales within just a few months. Already, in the key state of
California, distressed property transactions account for 66% of the market. In
Florida, distressed property transactions account for 63% of the market. And in the
combined area of Arizona and Nevada, distressed property transactions are a
stunning 72% of home sales.

“Short sales occupy 65% of market share, REO's occupy 30% of market share,
non-distressed are 5% or less,” reported another agent in Nevada.

The local housing market is not the issue. The issue is dealing with lenders. Not only
do they look for any excuse not to lend money, they frequently jeopardize the deal at the last moment. The time needed to close a transaction is now approaching 60 days due to lender practices. The markets are a direct result of lender practices.

The increase in distressed properties, combined with constricted financing and a
reduction in first-time homebuyers, is causing downward pricing pressure to build in the
market, especially for the categories of damaged REO and move-in ready REO. Over the past 12 months, time on market for the REO categories has strongly increased while the average number of offers has decreased. Also over the past 12 months, average prices for damaged REO have declined by 16% while average prices for move-in ready REO have declined 20%.

----Campbell Survey

[Better Informed Than Dead, Broke, and Countryless]

Holy sh*t. Mamma, do you realize the significance of this information? It is VERY scary and important and serious and dramatic. Possible ramifications too devastating and horrifying to imagine. It makes one very pessimistic and bearish, indeed. VERY. IMPORTANT. SERIOUS. SCARY. BEARISH. ALARMING.

Those who aren't yet scared or alarmed are either ignoramuses or fools.

Thank you for this information. By shedding light on these troubling, horrifying truths you have quite possibly helped make things just a tiny bit less scary in an alarmingly small way.

[Creeped OUT]

Ominous, indeed.

Spooky, even.

Dare I say frightening?

Let's go with terrifying.

Time to read my bible and sip my scotch while holding onto my gold and sliding my hand down the shaft of my rifle.

[joe]

"Time to read my bible and sip my scotch while holding onto my gold and sliding my hand down the shaft of my rifle."

That is funny!

Joe

[Mamma Boom Boom]

My 'Short Term Indicator' just can't quite make it to sell. Just a whisper away. But, everything else is pointing down.

Neo-Mamma

[joe]

I am not sure what to make of this but there are apparently two planned protests being organized on Facebook in Saudi Arabia – one on March 11th followed by one on March 20th.

Does anyone follow this stuff???

Joe

[Hank]

Monday March 7th
9:30 am

You have mentioned XXXX a few times.  I goggled it but found nothing other than XX currents.  Someone else mentioned it to me.  Just know nothing about it.
 
I picked up 7.5 on the way down and when you sent the other fractal out this afternoon  I went long at 1312, and bailed at 1315.00 because I am just fried, up at 2am everyday this week.
 
You pointed out the fractal and stated you were looking for confirmation.  Software runs on Trade station showed professional buying at 1312 it was enough to go long. 

 
Whether or not you say it your never wrong.

 
I am amazed at your es path chart.  I think you have said you developed that.  Not sure, but it seems to be dead on all the time.
 
Fractals gave me direction, without fractals I would be following xx advice, not being mean but that did nothing but lose me money following that advice.. 

 
I had a very nice 2 weeks, thanks to you
 
Have a good weekend. Looking forward to really learning this stuff. 

I am so amazed at the direction of fractals.
 

[Leon]

Mama when will you admit that intermediate sell signal you broadcast months ago was a dud?

Also, please stop posting such scary things! They're more chilling than Vincent Price's voice. Downright spooky!

[Hockthefarm]

Y:

So now folks here are worried that we will lose our reserve currency status to a communist country?

If that were to happen I think folks would stop studying history altogether.

Seems to me reserve currency status is not something that can be willed or demanded. It just happens naturally over a long period of time, say 20 to 30 years from now.

Sad to watch Gietner worm around the notion on tv this past week that less government involvement in housing would increase affordability dramatically. Surely this deception is not going unseen. How many times are we going to keep ramming a square peg in a round hole? We look more and more like the pre-breakup USSR every day.

Hock

[yelnick]

Hock, it is not so much the US loses the Dollar as a reserve currency as it is it loses being THE reserve currency. And maybe over a period of time fades as the Pound did. 

[Hockthefarm]

Y:

Yes, I agree. And the Brits tried very hard to maintain the pound as the reserve currency but it was like trying to stop the tide.

I wish the STU and FF would stop pulling quotes from the so called "blog sphere" and refer to them as if they had relevance. I think you can pretty much find any quote you want using that source. And comparing the market frenzy of 1999 to today seems like a real push to me.

Hock

[trendlines]

S&P500 Short-Term: Bearish Wedge

Not to swing at every pitch requires a lot of discipline. If one takes only the best setups, with a safety margin, one can't go too far wrong. (Sounds like value investing, doesn't it?!) The S&P500 maybe providing a short-term bearish opportunity.

My last update noted a trendline break with support at 1300, and suggested that we might see a shorting opportunity. Since then prices have whip-sawed impressively, and failing at the back-test of the broken trendline. Thus resulting is what could be a bearish Rising Wedge, as shown on this 30-min chart.

Top of the wedge is at 1332, bottom is the rising trendline. A break eitherway could be bullish/bearish. But Elliott Wave Theory suggests that after an impulsive decline and a corrective upmove, there should follow at least another impulsive decline.

Strategy:
1. Taking a short-position at the top of the wedge, with RSI close to 70 on the 30-min chart(for margin of safety), with a suitable stop just above. In case of decline below the lower trendline, looking at a target of around 1275.
2. In case of a break above the wedge, i won't be taking any long positions until clear of recent highs.

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2011/03/s-short-term-bearish-wedge.html

[Virgil]

Is it true that the EWI FF introduced a long tern alternate bullish count? So the market is either going up or down now.

[Leon]

I wish the STU and FF would stop pulling quotes from the so called "blog sphere" and refer to them as if they had relevance. I think you can pretty much find any quote you want using that source. And comparing the market frenzy of 1999 to today seems like a real push to me.

Don't second-guess Prechter's alchemy. I doubt YOU be so consistently wrong about the direction of stocks and commodities. Just be glad a reliable fade exists and shut up please.

[Account Deleted]

SPY Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/03/spy-weekend-update.html

[da bear]

in my opinion, the move in the DJIA off the March 2009 lows is not an a-b-c move but rather a five wave move. In arithmetic terms it is done, but in log terms it call still run higher.

On gold, I like their count of five waves nearly being in since the 2000 low. They see a rise to $1,510-$1,530 to complete the fifth wave. ... I am looking at my own GLD chart and from the late 2008 lows, I see a five wave move that looks to be complete at about $150 GLD.

EWI mentioned a possibility of gold and silver blow-offs but they weren't sure.

da bear

[yelnick]

Hock, this month's EWFF makes a point that the new social IPO bubble is likely to bust quickly, a point which is counter to history of these tech booms. They tend to last 4-5 years, and this one is only abut a year on, at best. It gets to your point of them grabbing a quote here or there to substantiate a 'sentiment' or 'social mood' point. That is certainly not a systematic way to monitor markets, and in this case they are stepping into an arena I know a whole lot better than they do, and they got it wrong. Also, need I point out that the tech boom from 1978 – 1983 (the Apple/PC craze) took place amidst a double dip recession and a terrible economic climate, and essentially burned out just as markets turned up? These tech booms are driven by a different drummer than the broader market, and can be counter cyclical. 

[Ray]

Yelnick, that's a great point, but when this Fed driven liquidity dries up, the economy will likely roll over just like it was doing last summer before QE lite and QE2. Isn't this what Volker did in the early '80's when he raised rates? Not talking about waves here, or social mood, just good old fashioned money debasement and liquidity. If the Fed actually ends QE1 & 2 in June, the party for the stocks and commodities will end and the economy will likely enter a recession in Q1 '12 because the impact of these higher commodity prices have had on corporate margins will be fully realized by then coupled with $1T being pulled out of the financial system. You're probably correct about the next technology boom, but without liquidity largesse provided by the Fed, it too will have to wait I'm afraid. People forget how close we were to the economy rolling over last summer. Bernanke was so afraid he wouldn't allow $10B worth of MBS's to mature of the Fed's balance sheet so he bought Treasuries, then of course his famous (infamous?) Jackson Hole speech.
Ray

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Leon, ....feel free to offer up your analysis.
Or is your forte: playing pocket pool, all day?

[yelnick]

Virgil, the STU included a view that this current correction is a wave 4 and we have a 5 to go. I would not characterize it as long-term bullish. They make the recent drop leg a of a triangle, and the recent ABC flat as leg b. The implication is a drop Monday in leg c and then a bounce in leg d; and after a sideways week or so, a thrust up in wave 5.  Possible target would be 1370 area, given that such a thrust normally would equal the widest spread in the wave 4 (the initial drop of 50 pts), and the triangle may end at the midpoint of the whole move (1320). 

I think the more interesting alternative is that this wave C up didn't start at the july 2 low (1011) but the late August low, the Bernanke QE2 announcement. That makes the November drop a wave 2, which fits its sharp character, and the current sideways move a wave 4 triangle of one degree higher. This would give wave 5 a higher target and a longer time to run; not a thrust but a strong wave, and since neither 1 nor 3 extended, likely to extend. Speculation:
Timing extends from 2ish months to at least 3, meaning June ending (and maybe all the way into 2012)Duration extends 273 pts, targeting the 1565 range, 1.6x wave 3, which went 1173-1344 or 171 pts

[yelnick]

Ray, remember that the period of 1980-83 was a double dip recession, as deep as the 2008 fall, and yet tech stocks boomed. The scale of the tech boom is small as compared with other markets, and can run counter cyclical as some hot money rotates into the one sector with positive returns vs a big market drop. 

But on your  economic point, yes, if we back off QE3, the loss of a liquidity pump will likely see rates increase, stocks drop and the economy slide back to a double dip. On the other hand, QE3 might continue the oil speculation, and drive the economy down anyway. 

Liquidiity from QE is a gateway drug, a gateway to more liquidity, and like the red queen eventually the money pump has to run full bore just to keep the economy afloat. 

[Virgil]

Yelnick, I heard that yesterday's EW FF has an alternate long term count for the last 20 years - we're still in the Cycle that started in the 70s, the 2000 top was Primary 3 and we've been in Primary 4 since. The implication is higher highs when it's played out so the supercycle and grand supercycle still haven't topped (like they've been saying for the last decade).

[I Appreciate Ron Paul]

Ron Paul on where the truth lies, w/r to budget reduction in process in DC.

What joke eh?

They are f'en us all again.

I hope Ron Paul takes on Bernanke. The climate is getting better and better for some DC fireworks, including WI style protests. Ain't quite there yet, but inching closer.

http://paul.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1832:congress-must-reject-the-welfarewarfare-state&catid=62:texas-straight-talk&Itemid=69

[Ray]

Yelnick, that's the way I see it; ending the QE's and the liquidity pump will hurt the market (it will drop in anticipation of the economy rolling over) then ultimately the economy, but continuing with QE3 will drive oil well over $150/bbl (if the oil increase after QE1 & QE2 is any guide) then this too will drive us into a deep recession ala every other oil spike '08 being the most recent. The Fed has really painted themselves, and us, into a corner this time. Maybe this time, they'll let the market play out instead of interfering? Great blog! Ray

[yelnick]

I appreciate ron paul – we are watching the death throes of socialism. Should now accelerate worldwide. Ran out of other people's money, as thatcher quipped years ago.

Martin Armstrong sees this as a ~25 year period of revolution, similar to 1776-1802 (which ended with Napoleon's coronation), 1848-1873 (which started with Marx and ended with consolidation of German and Italian states), and 1917-1945 (which started with Lenin and ended with the American Century). Each period was followed by Empire building for around ~45 years.

He sees the American Century as hitting its peak around 1989-92, when the Berlin Wall fell. Since then we have been in the 25 year revolution period as we sort out the New World Order. Fall of one form of socialism – communism – left ascendant the other form – fabianism (Euro welfare states, US entitlements). That second form is now under internal assault. Greece = Wisconsin. His timing model puts the end around 2018. 

[yelnick]

Virgil, did the EWFF make 2000-20xx a wave 4 with 5 to go? Nope. 

BTW that wave 4 with 5 to go has been my view for years. It comes from using the constant-dollar Dow, not the nominal dow. Or if you like, the gold-adjusted Dow. 

[DG]

"

Mama when will you admit that intermediate sell signal you broadcast months ago was a dud?

Posted by: Leon | Friday, March 04, 2011 at 04:56 PM"

Leon, Mamma Boom-boom did the same thing with her big bullish forecast in May. Held on to it for months and every uptick was the alleged beginning of some huge rally. When I finally did what you did and called her on it, the response was something about not being a daytrader. As if missing the beginning of a rally by 3+ months is an acceptable margin of error.

Her forecasts are crap and her "proprietary" indicators don't seem to be worth the time spent to develop and collect the data for them. Who knows what they allegedly measure, but it clearly isn't anything that matters.

[yelnick]

Ray, good comment & discussion. The Fed is trying to compensate for reckless fiscal policy, which the political dynamic seems incapable of dealing with (only a $61B redux by the Repubs? Tea Party is appalled). To them QE is a slight bending of the yield curve, not money printing, which I think is right; but they overlook the speculation driven by liquidity they create in the banks. Can this pump restore the economy faster than the commodities bubble stifles it? So far the record says no:

GDP weaker than expected, and being revised downEmployment weaker than reported, since Feb was catchup on JanInventory rebalancing overImports substitute for new inventory buildGM pushing incentives, is in a huge margin squeeze to eek out sales
Next month we should have a triple whammy:
GDP revised down again for Q4Employment comes in around 150k, below Feb since no catch upISM reports drop
ISM reports show expectations and are so high they should drop although still be above 50%, meaning expansion. Ths will be misinterpreted by the financial press as bad news when it really isn't (as long as it is above 50%). 

[Ray]

Yelnick, good points. Also, the plunging labor force participation rates are going back to where they were during the inflationary 1970's. Also, the ISM manufacturing numbers are running just as hot as they were during this period too. I don't believe any of this is coincidental. This started with Bush's (along with Greenspan's & Bernanke's money printing) easy money policy to increase exports even though we're a consumer driven economy. When input costs increase like they have, they increase for consumers along with manufacturers which makes it that much more difficult for them to hire workers thus the so called employment dilemma. It's no dilemma at all really. Look how quickly "Eurosclerosis" ended when Thatcher took over or when Volker took over the Fed. Same thing will happen here, although we'll have to go through another '82-'83 recession/depression first.

[What Is DG's Motive?]

"Leon, Mamma Boom-boom did the same thing with her big bullish forecast in May. Held on to it for months and every uptick was the alleged beginning of some huge rally. When I finally did what you did and called her on it, the response was something about not being a daytrader. As if missing the beginning of a rally by 3+ months is an acceptable margin of error.

Her forecasts are crap and her "proprietary" indicators don't seem to be worth the time spent to develop and collect the data for them. Who knows what they allegedly measure, but it clearly isn't anything that matters"

DG, when anyone on this blog questions Neely's calls since the early '09 low you invariably bring up his weekly record as a reason to stick by him. This has been peat and repeat.

And you have made additional posts to indicate you continue to stick by him.

Why would or could not the longer term issue, i.e. the weeklies, apply with Mamma's calls? By your own apparent statistics that you repeatedly bring up here there is money to be made in 'the weeklies', even though many a day trader might disagree with you.

If 'the weeklies' do not apply then are you insinuating and perhaps even admitting that Neely's daily calls are crap? Neely for example missed the bottom in '09 in both price magnitude and time by amounts that were extreme. There are plenty of free internet available documents to verify this. So then exactly what was the value and/or what is the value of Neely's calls to a daytrader?

What is it then that is of value from Neely, since seemingly his error(s) are of the same or at this point much greater magnitude than Mamma's?

AND DG to a daytrader it ain't what happened 10 years ago or even 1 year ago that counts. Neely's record since the bottom of early '09 is beyond horrible, this is a fact for all to know and see.

Additionally I am not aware that Mamma is peddling her wares for money. Her views are free, and yes there is a difference, my opinion of course.

In essence then are you a 'HYPOCRITE', as I believe Mamma herself has asked? Or can you show all of us blog readers that your views contain cogent and consistent arguments?

Curious But Not In Denmark

[Judge Roy Bean]

Yelnick,

History is always in the making, and to a certain extent worthless as far as predicting the future.

I do not necessarily agree with your views, in the explicit. Implicitly yes, I agree with some, maybe even more than some.

I think you do live in a bubble, as opined on here not too long ago. Apparently by your own choice. And some of your friends are likely part of the reasons we have so many issues today.

Yet I am glad I live in the US of A. I have lived elsewhere, and worked elsewhere for considerable periods of time. During that time I have had a direct association with many not in the bubble.

I do agree and believe we are going through some 'different times'.

Martin Armstrong is a jail bird, deservedly so, and is one of the last I would ever refer to. That does not mean I am not familiar with his publications.

Yelnick, you are too bearish, yet a decent to huge retrenchment in the indices is quite possible.

The Japanese and the Germans made a huge mistake in dragging us into WWII. Do not under estimate the potential of this 'free' country, which one always needs to compare to elsewhere. Comparatively we are yet quite free, and I think this should always win out.

Our current issues relate to too many parasites, trying to make ends meat or better, off the rest of us. That is not the approach that made this country what it is, and in my opinion will not cut it over the longer term (next generation at least). Eventually it may cave, but not yet.

Judge Roy Bean, A Former Parasite?

No God Exists West of Here, Only Judge Roy Bean

[DG]

" Neely for example missed the bottom in '09 in both price magnitude and time by amounts that were extreme. There are plenty of free internet available documents to verify this."

Really? Here is from the March 9, 2009 S&P Trading service:

On Friday, the mar. S&P stopped shy
of our $699.50 buy-stop. But, the good
news is Neely River conditions now
allow us to try to enter 10 points lower.
Go ½ Long at 689.50 Mar. with a stop
at 670.50. If we get in, I expect the
S&P to begin its largest and fastest
rally in months!

The level of public fear and concern is
rising, which increases the chances
wave-X could end at any time. A rally
to 699.50 Mar. is a strong indication
wave-X has ended, but it will take a
move to 715.00 to confirm it. Move to
½ Long at 699.50 Mar. (stop, 670.50).

Our 715.50 Mar. buy-stop was hit late
Wednesday, so we exited the rest of
our Short position with a 90-point profit.
Like Daily and Hourly traders, we want
to be Long if/when wave-X ends. For
that reason, enter ½ Long immediately
(with a Mar. stop at 639) and increase
to fully Long at 699.50 Mar. The stop
will be 1-tick below low of week.

That he didn't follow through to the long side is hugely problematic, obviously. But, the fact that you can't even get that right doesn't bode well for the rest of your post.

"And you have made additional posts to indicate you continue to stick by him."

What a load of crap. I've been constructively critical of Neely for a long time now. The key word being "constructively", not like others who throw the baby out with the bathwater. I have said that NeoWave, if implemented properly, is useful. I've written this very idea to Neely many times, telling him that he's gotten away from some core concepts of NeoWave, and to his trading detriment. Are you capable of the intellectual effort necessary to separate the man from the method? Apparently not. That's not my problem.

Do I think Neely's calls are valuable for daytraders? No. Are his Weekly calls valuable for position or swing traders? Yes.

In any event, Neely does have positive expectancy on his Weekly recommendations. Does Mamma? Who knows, since she only makes vague statements, not specific trading calls.

[Judge Roy Bean]

Well, here we have another HollyWooder.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110306/ap_on_en_ot/us_wisconsin_budget_unions_protest

Good ole Michael Moore.

And the first and foremost HollyWooder to take us down the path we are presently on is none other than Repub Ronald Reagan. Yes believe it or not.

Ronnie still today has a lot of supporters. Count me out.

Search on David Stockman and read all of his stuff. David ... well I only hope I am not among the duped.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/01/opinion/01stockman.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

Look at exactly when deficit spending took off.

http://zfacts.com/p/1170.html

There is a reason Stockman is pissed at the Repubs. It is simply because they have become Jezabels.

Will this trend revert?

I do not know but I hope so.

Judge Roy Bean

[Hockthefarm]

Roy:

"Do not under estimate the potential of this 'free' country, which one always needs to compare to elsewhere. Comparatively we are yet quite free, and I think this should always win out."

The only relevant "freedom" comparison is to our own past. Who really cares what our status is relative to Egypt. Surely even the most liberal among us agree that Obama has us on an unsustainable spending path and that he revels in the gubmint ownership of housing, banking and anything else he can grab without getting kicked out of office. Sorry Judge.

By the way, how many elephants died making that belt of yours?

Hock

[What Is DG's Motive?]

DG,

How do these factor into your reponse?

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/12/interview-with-glenn-neely-the-long-term-market-.html

http://allallan.blogspot.com/2009/06/glenn-neely-50-decline-before-end-of.html

Did Neely hit or miss?

Are the weekly Neely predictions still in vogue?

Facts are facts DG. Neely made these calls.

Are you a bit sensitive?

What exactly is it that you are trying to peddle here? You (and Yelnick?) getting paid to proffer us Neely stuff?

It appears to me the masses have been duped by Neely. Totally duped. The fellow requires money for his subscription. He has followers. Many lost a lot of money on his advice, which they trusted and paid for, in full. The timeframe(s) in question makes no difference. They followed his advice and lost huge. What did they get in return? Just SHIT. Yes there is no other way to conclude the matter .... Just SHIT.

Yet you seem oblivious to this fact. It is always convenient to say that anyone should make their own decisions. Yet I agree it is true. If you agree we agree DG.

But Neely led folk astray. BIGTIME.

And all of you folk who read this blog, you need to remember that, every time you read a new Yelnick post.

But for Neely, he was a super duper extraordinaire.

A Shyster.

A Total Shyster.

A Total and Complete Parasite.

And DG I think there is more to come. The parasitic Neely approach and Shyster environment that is running its course is not yet done. If you look at your charts and think about all that Neely has told you in his Ewave book it might come to you. It is all about time. Time DG. But try once and for all to become a decipher, instead of a Neely follower. Take what he offers and go beyond.

To a daytrader DG time is everything. A second, a minute, a day, yes it is so important.

But to a Mamma type trader, it might be all meaningless. Rather a week or a month might be of more importance.

Your choice DG, The Man Of The Year.

[Judge Roy Bean]

Hock,

What exactly is the point of your post?

We agree or disagree? I would tend to think we agree on more than we disagree on, with respect to my post.

Yet we probably disagree on one main point.

That is that you are likely one of the dumbest white collar posters I have ever encountered.

No elephant belts in my possession by the way. You have completely and totally confused me with someone else.

I do wear a belt, yes. But yes I admit it is standard cow hide leather. I tried to use alternatives. But they just did not do the job. So I went back to real leather.

And gubmint is in English that I use and know spelled 'government'. You seem to want to attract attention to yourself by these repeated colloqialisms.

Thank you Mr. Hock.

[DG]

"Did Neely hit or miss?

Are the weekly Neely predictions still in vogue?

Facts are facts DG. Neely made these calls."

Clearly, those were misses. You want a gold star for finding a Neely miss? Hooray for you. Show me a "guru" who doesn't have a missed macro-level market call and I'll grant that you have a point. Wave theory isn't magic.

"It appears to me the masses have been duped by Neely. Totally duped. The fellow requires money for his subscription. He has followers. Many lost a lot of money on his advice, which they trusted and paid for, in full. The timeframe(s) in question makes no difference. They followed his advice and lost huge. What did they get in return? Just SHIT. Yes there is no other way to conclude the matter .... Just SHIT."

I think you're being a tad melodramatic (which is your style, for whatever reason). Even on the Hourly time frame, which is Neely's worst, his trading returns (not including commission) since August 7, 2006 is -3%. Hardly "losing huge". Even if you only started subscribing to his service at its high-water mark in early 2009, you lost 9.6%. Certainly not what you'd choose to have happen, but hardly a catastrophe (note that since I have no affiliation with Neely, I'm not saying this is his perspective, just mine). If you started subscribing at the Daily time frame high-water mark, you were worse off, with a loss of 14% since April 2009. For the Weekly, from high-water mark to low was a 10% loss. Again, negative returns always suck, but if you lost more than that, it's your own fault for not sticking to the rules.

"But try once and for all to become a decipher, instead of a Neely follower. Take what he offers and go beyond. "

Yeah, OK. Maybe if you read the last hundred or more posts of mine you'd see that I already did that. Try to keep up. Nothing you've ever posted has struck me as even in the slightest way interesting or original, so your whole call to "go beyond" Neely is laughable, since you clearly don't have the slightest clue how to go about doing so.

"What exactly is it that you are trying to peddle here? You (and Yelnick?) getting paid to proffer us Neely stuff?"

I've never gotten a single cent for anything related to Neely. If he even wanted to pay me, he'd have to change his recommendations to fit the way I think NeoWave should be implemented before I would agree.

[What Is DG's Motive?]

"Even if you only started subscribing to his service at its high-water mark in early 2009, you lost 9.6%."

DG,

That was over two year ago now.

Are you really trying to tell us that Neely's weeklies are not all that you have cracked them up to be?

As I read through all of your Neely defense type of posts I get a bit confused. In particular since you are a professed make money every day type of day trader. Maybe DG I am just not mentally capable of following your logic. I apologize, assuming that is the case. I could perhaps blame my parents, but I love them too much to do such. They after all did a lot of nice things for me as I was growing up.

I'm sorry if I just can not put it all together DG. Guess I just do not have what it takes, but it almost seem as if you are stumbling over yourself so to speak.

DG, I have to go feed my dogs. My dogs are hard to take sometimes but I always reinforce that with the fact that they primarily do act on instinct. So they are good dogs, and I really do love them. Maybe Neely is really a bit like a dog and should therefore be cut some slack, eh? He just wants to get fed again.

[What Is DG's Motive?]

My Dogs?

I have dogs cut from the same cloth as those shown in these links.

http://alaskanarcticexpeditions.com/

http://alaskanarcticexpedition.wordpress.com/

http://arctic-stories.com/

I love my dogs. My largest is probably about 150 lbs now, and really an enjoyable companion, as are the other three. My favorite if I have one is about 100 lbs, and ever so intelligent for a dog. A spaid female. I only wish I had more time to spend with them, perhaps on the trail, behind a sled. They really do love to take care of me and 'pull'.

There is decent banter on this blog. Hopefully we can maintain some degree of civilality (?) and get some benefit from it. I think in the end many or most of us share a lot of common views.

I am feeding my dogs now! They are happy because of that. They are most comfortable when it is in the -20 F to 10 F range perhaps. They really become active when the temperature is in that area. If it gets up into the 50 F area, they are without energy.

They like to come into my house immensely, and be my pets. But their tongues hang out and it really is just too warm for them. They were not made or bred for 'house' temperatures.

When they are active they like to sit on the hill side and watch the surroundings. In the snow, typically. Ever so intently. Watch. Watch. And Watch some more. They are so in tune with their surroundings, when they are doing this. I really love to just observe them.

Kind of like DG watching the tape I suspect?

The Iditarod is in progress.

Watch it on The Net. The Yukon Quest was ever so interesting, and if you like dogs and feats go search and read. This years Yukon Quest was extraordinaire, my opinion. It is all about the dogs, for me anyway.

We still all live on Planet Earth. Sometimes Planet Earth lets us know who is really in command. If you have not experienced the temperature extremes of the far north, you know not what of I speak.

http://www.yukonquest.com/

http://www.iditarod.com/race/

The Iditarod is now in progress. I do not know why we all do what we do, it is pointless to wonder. But many of you on this blog live in a different world than I or the mushers of the Iditarod. Yet you might like dogs. Take a look, and in particular at the dogs. They are utterly awesome in my opinion, at what they do. And I will say I have utmost respect for Joe Redington and his dogs of The North. A reason perhaps is that I have a bit of experience to judge. Joe Redington and his dogs ..... AWESOME!

[What Is DG's Motive?]

Please excuse my reference to Joe Redington.

I meant to say Joe Henderson.

I had a bit of a mind fart there. Joe Redington is however known as the father of The Iditarod. And from the overall context Joe R. is worthy of mention.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Redington

Interestingly enough Joe Redington was the father of The Iditarod. I did in fact at one point in my life spend a few nights in a sleezy motel in Kingfisher, where Joe Redington was born. Twas interesting to say the least. But that is another story and another part of my life.

[What Is DG's Motive?]

DG, you have a dog or dogs?

I'd like to know.

I really do like dogs, a lot. All dogs.

I have what I have, four mostly Malemute dogs. The Alaskan state dog. Perhaps the oldest known dog to inhabit North America. Search on Malemutes if you are interested. Malemutes I have found are really quite the dogs. But they belong up north, not where you likey have your abode.

If I retire to the lower 48 in the future I may acquire a Medium German Schnauzer. This would be in addition to some Malemute type dogs.

Make a good dog team no?

[Hockthefarm]

Judge:

My mistake. It has been a boring weekend with most of the family down with the flu.

Here is to you and our government, local, state and federal.

H

[yelnick]

Judge, I agree with about everything in your comment &  commentary about the US and history. I certainly agree that living in Silicon Valley means I live in a bubble, in a rarefied atmosphere surrounded by some amazing people who are creating the future. I am quite bullish on this new tech boom even as I am worried over the broader context the US is swimming in. I don't think it would be that hard to turn the US around theoretically, but extremely hard practically. The parasitical class has to be taken head on. It is little surprise to me that the greatest gains in prior tech booms have been in lightly regulated markets. 

BTW I don't know what to make of Martin Armstrong. His perspective is interesting, but his numerology seems too precise, much like EWI. He may have been the character behind the movie Pi given his love of Pi, much as Prechter loves Phi. Is the secret to be found in obscure & mysterious numerology? To ask the question is to answer it. If you want a read on his numbers, he calls June 13 as a major turn date in world affairs. Not precise on what will turn, but the date is only a few months away. 

[DG]

"DG,

That was over two year ago now.

Are you really trying to tell us that Neely's weeklies are not all that you have cracked them up to be?"

What is your benchmark for asking the question? Weekly trade recommendations have returned 30%+ since August 2006, with entirely sub-optimal money management rules. Is the market up 30% over that time period? No? Well, then, gee, I guess Neely's recommendations have beat the market over the past 4+ years. In case you haven't heard, only a small percentage of money managers beat the market over 4+-year time periods. So, I'm not really seeing the alleged issue. Just because you prefer to focus on a two-year window rather than the entire time period doesn't mean that I have to accept your premise.

"As I read through all of your Neely defense type of posts I get a bit confused. In particular since you are a professed make money every day type of day trader. Maybe DG I am just not mentally capable of following your logic."

The logic is that if there are people who are interested in swing trading (not day trading), which is to say much of the readership of this blog, and are looking for an approach that has been successful on that time frame, Neely offers one in his Weekly trading service. When I defend Neely's Weekly track record, it's on that basis. I have said multiple times that people should NOT use Neely's Hourly recommendations because they are simply NOT sufficiently accurate to warrant the risk.

What I have done with NeoWave is completely separate from what Neely has done, but since it is very short-term trading (not quite day-trading because I hold overnight, too, if the trade management rules require), it requires minute-by-minute monitoring of price action, which I doubt most people want to do. Neely's logical clarity was a huge advance in wave theory, which, from the looks of the wave counts people suggest, still have not been fully digested, and set the foundation for my own strategy, so of course I appreciate his work.

[What Is DG's Motive?]

DG, do you have a dog? If so what kind?

If you do not you should get one. It would be good for you to take breaks from all your screen viewing. You could take you dog out for a walk for example and just relax.

Good Luck To You DG.

We have an interesting few years coming up, w/o doubt.

[Judge Roy Bean]

Yelnick,

Romney is coming out.

Sarah did a good job in this interview.

http://news.yahoo.com/video/opinion-15749653/24141821

Obama's poll numbers really really stink.

This next election has the potential to be a total and complete wipe out for The Dems. In particular if the market cooperates for The Repubs.

Will the 4 year cycle hit a possible huge low about the time of the elections? There is potential for this.

Maybe we will finally see the end of Pelosi. Too bad Reid won't be up again.

Between now and the 2012 election The Repubs only have to play it cool, attempt and do some deficit reduction, and make sure what is not done is pointed directly at The Dems.

I am sick and tired of fiscal policies of DC. Don't think I am alone.

Ron Paul might be a dark horse. Sure hope so.

Judge

[Judge Roy Bean]

Yelnick,

A tech boom is coming again, sure as the sun comes up every day. But your timing, time will show.

I believe you called a top prematurely in the Trannies not too many days back. No harm done.

A lot of times in hindsight there are some indicators of what is coming. If they are then available in hindsight the inference then is that they were there all along.

The Tran appears weak to me.

Moreover it has a most interesting pattern off the last major low. I can not find a way to chart the move since that low as an impulse. Any way I try to do so I quickly hit rule violations that are obvious.

If it is a B wave it is stretched to the limit timewise.

I have also looked at the sub indices.

http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/7081/110306tranwithextras.png

Air freight and marine freight seem to be lagging noticably. Is this because all the QE is more local and relative to rail road and trucking? I don't know.

W/r to a count possibility this is about all I come up with.

http://img847.imageshack.us/img847/9927/110306thetran.png

Next week will be very interesting for the trannies.

Judge

[DG]

This still seems to me the most likely wave structure since the August 2010 low. It would allow for another new high, but time-wise we are getting close to the point where this is no longer viable. Plus, there is still the bigger question of how this fits into the longer-term wave count. I agree with Neely that there are still multiple levels of confirmation required before saying wave-(B) is done.

http://img156.imageshack.us/i/spxdailymarch1.png/

[Judge Roy Bean]

DG fwiw my 'time' indicators show multiple top possibilities within the Feb 21 to March 21 window.

Was it Feb 21? Dunno.

But my last day = your last day, approximately.

If no top by then bears are hosed.

Judge