search elliott


  • Google
Share/Bookmark

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

FlagCounter

  • Where From?
    free counters
Related Posts with Thumbnails

« Chinese Curse Bewitches the Dollar | Main | New Blog Platforms »

Friday, March 04, 2011

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

yelnick

Judge, everyone struggles to find the impulse off March 2009 given the odd behavior in the middle (Sep-Nov 2009) of what should have been wave 3 of 3. Your Tranny chart looks like a Fractal Finance stucture – thrust and plateau:

1) First thrust off mar 09 ends in late April/early May and goes into a sideways plateau. Call that wave A up and a wave B flat

2) Second thrust off july 09 goes into late August and plateaus again all the way into feb10; the key distinction of FF from EW is to look for a bifurcation out of a plateau/trading-range to call a trend change. One could say an ABC from the March low took place into August 09, completing a bigger wave W, then a sideways bigger Y took place into Feb 10

3) Third thrust goes to the Apr 10 high, and bifurcates down in early may 10. Neely originally had that as the A wave of a larger flat, with the Flash Crash the B wave and us now in the C. Put that all together and we have had a three-wave move off the bottom, call it WYZ

4) Fourth thrust we are now in, and in FF unlike EW it started in Sep10 not at the July 10 low – again, the point at which the thrust bifurcated out of the prior trading range.

The FF way of looking at it is simpler in retrospect than EW, and avoids a lot of discretionary interpretation that makes EW questionable for use as a trading method; but the test is does it give better long/short calls?


I have in no way made FF a system worth acting upon, but will put in this observation: EWI called a bottom within two weeks of mar 2009, and neely (as the recent discourse with DG shows) also was pretty close to making the right call too. Say the FF practitioner went long sometime within the first thrust up. Since then the bifurcations have always been UP and the bottom of the plateaus have tilted upwards – both FF indications of a continuation of primary trend, not a major reversal. If I had been sticking to FF principles and not reporting neely or prechter top calls, FF would have remained bullish throughout, with one caveat: when we got down over last summer into the range of the prior trading range (Sep-Nov 2009), it sent a FF signal to watch for a trend break.


Easy to say in hindsight I know, but I am exploring how to make FF a viable approach. At the moment I am listening less to EW views and looking at it more like DG, in the cold light of day.


Right now we remain too elevated for calling a trend break. The bifurcation has to fall faster than the prior trend, and sustain that rate of change. This recent break is slowing down, although still on a faster decline than the prior rise. One can draw a reflected trendline at the top to see the rate of decline. Neely draws it as a box. This technique gives a good indication of whether we reverse or not.

yelnick

Judge, you might be right that the tea party fervor (not necessarily the party itself) will wreak even more vengeance in 2012.  The four-year cycle is driven by re-election pump priming, and obama is trying, and the Repubs are not doing much to counter it. The real austerity is happening at the State level. So I would rate it as a close call as to Obama's re-election. What I am watching is that the economy seems to be accelerating (eg ISM reports) but faces such large headwinds (oil, rebellion n Arabia, rebellion of sorts in Wisconsin, poor employment growth, poor spending growth, terrible housing sector, etc), that these reports may be peaking right now. Could be the Q4 GDP is a high water mark, and we see a slow decline the rest of the year. In that climate Obama goes into the 2012 re-election sprint facing a flat economy or possible double-dip. 

Hockthefarm

Interesting take from Sy Harding over on his site this weekend:

Says that the risk /reward favors the downside. Thinks we are in the early stages of a move to the 200 day (11% for the djia and 16% for the Russel 2k). Short term indicators are very similar to last years April-July time frame.

I've been reading his stuff for about a year. To me his strength is not trying to infer too much from the data. He doesn't see a return of the big, bad bear for at least a year.

Hock

Virgil

http://books.google.com/books?id=tXxsIwlTmjEC&pg=PA33&dq=conquer+the+crash+figure+4-3&hl=en&ei=nOlzTefPE4SXtwfEvM2mDQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CDEQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false

Not that anyone cares about what he says, but Hochberg did introduce an alternate count in his Financial Forecast. It's in the chart on the second page. He didn't mention it in the text and I don't blame him.

The link is to Conquer the Crash figure 4-3, Cycle wave V from '74 to 2000. The alternate count now has that peak as a circled 3 & we're now in wave 4, so the third wave would be extended instead of the 5th. If wave 1 plus wave 5 equals wave 3 then we'll see Dow 20000 and it could be going there right now.

He snuck it in there, but what it means is they're saying we're either going to plunge into a multi-decade depression or thrust into a multi-decade boom. Invest accordingly.

yelnick

Virgil, thanks, good catch and more careful scrutiny than I put in. The unmentioned alt count has 2000-2009 as an ABC flat wave 4 (circled). Although the alt count does not label the move since, presumably it would be part of wave 5 up already. 

upstart

"Either a multi-decade depression or a multi-decade boom"

Helpful stuff, Elliott Wave.

Hockthefarm

Virgil:

That is a nominal dow chart so I guess 20,000 would imply a total debasement of our currency. Puts an interesting spin on Buffett's rail purchase. It would be interesting to know what he really thinks. Don't think I'd want to own US bonds.

In the end I guess it depends on which way the Gubmint tries to flop and get something for nothing. Maybe they will bring the rat out of retirement to run the Fed.

The RE implosion taught us just how easily the gubmint can lead the vast majority of the citizenry around by the nose. Given that, both scenarios should remain firmly on the table.

Hock

Virgil

The long term supercycle/grand supercycle/millenial wave counting is an interesting intellectual exercise but not worth much for trading or investing. They paint themselves in a corner with their biases over an over again.

I think Buffett's big bets on rail have a lot to do with high oil prices (and conveniently, the strickest trucking regulations in decades are now going into affect). I wonder if there's much incentive for the Obama regime to quell unrest in the ME. The result is the energy tax they could never get passed.

Hockthefarm

Predictive quality of the 2 year note and the Greenspook legacy:

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/2-year_t-note_should_guide_the_fed/

Hock

joe

About two years ago Shell Oil was supposedly close to perfecting an in situ process for tapping into the shale reserves. It appears to me, they got it.

I am not sure how they increased the conductivity - I thought they were working with micro waves - but I think they went beyond that. And I think they are working with tempratures a lot higher than I thought were possible in in situ processing, but apparently they pulled it off.

It means - the process can be pretty environmentally friendly and the water requirements are very small - if they did what I think they did.

I think its why the leases in the Green River (and some other areas) have become such a hot commodity in the last 6 months or so.

It also means they would have got the cost under 37 bucks a barrel. And we really do not need Saudia Arabia for too much longer. The known reserves in the Green River formation alone are 5 times the Saudi reserves.

I think there is something seriously important going on in this right now.

Joe

Judge Roy Bean

Joe, I agree. And it is more than just oil shale.

Chevron is apparently selling its coal reserves. Why? Is it because they were not that big a part of Chevron, or just not deemed important any longer? I think more of the latter.

It is The Bakken, Brazil, The Gulf, Sakhalin, Qatar, Africa, Marcellus, Barnett, Cody, Barnett Woodford, Mancos, Antrim, New Albany, Woodford, Haynesville, Australia, and on and on.

And they have not even started with shale plays in Europe yet.

Gas and oil reserves are being added like wild fire the world over. Btu's are Btu's. Plus economical gas to liquid (GTL) is yet another play.

All of this combined with deregulation in the power industry that has and still is improving the thermal efficiency at which power is being delivered to the grid. I was in a CHP plant not that long ago that was pushing 80 %. I had no idea these numbers were being attained.

Now we take all of this and combine it with some battery or even fuel cell break throughs for autos, it is a whole different ball game.

Too many shieks have lived too high on the hog for too long. What will happen when it becomes a buyers market? They will produce and produce and produce some more.

Judge

Judge Roy Bean

I read a gold bug site today, Gold Eagle.

Seemingly all ready for dollar collapse extraordinaire, and gold/silver to the moon.

Then there was this:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/5_Richard_Russell_-_Gold_to_$6,000_as_Media_Ridicules.html

We are about to find out if there is some value to contrarian indicators.

The gold bugs seemingly have no fear here.

Judge

trendlines

Shanghai Composite: Upside Breakout!

Last update on the Shanghai Composite noted resistance at 2950. After a decent correction, SSEC jumped up 1.8% today on good volume, and breaking out above this barrier. Target for this move up is 3180. But first, there may be a back-test of the breakout. Also, the medium-term picture will get very interesting around the target levels. Stay tuned!

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2011/03/shanghai-composite-upside-breakout.html

Wave Rust

anybody want to short crude yet?

anybody?

wave rust

Bird

Hi guys,

I've been gone for a bit studying how history repeats.

For the record, from my time/price circular point of view we are right now at one of those critical time junctures where the market is allowed to turn. A few of you (DG, Mamma) may remember that my last critical juncture was April 26, 2010. I thought that one was it.

So if the present high or any further top in the next week or so holds for a bit, then I would consider it a possible long term turn south.

Virgil

It means - the process can be pretty environmentally friendly and the water requirements are very small - if they did what I think they did.

Joe, if that's the case then you would think we'd start to hear details soon. It came out last week that the EPA and Interior Dept are investigating shale fracking in Pennsylvania for contaminating drinking water. They're talking about moratoriums.

twitter.com/DrBubb

Interest in the old Deflation vs. Hyperinflation Discussion? Nicole Fosse (Stoneleigh) and Gonzalo Lira recently had a debate about it.

Find out who won, and read a discussion about the debate.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/Debate-NF-GL

twitter.com/DrBubb

Yelnick's: " The Fed is trying to compensate for reckless fiscal policy, which the political dynamic seems incapable of dealing with (only a $61B redux by the Repubs? Tea Party is appalled). To them QE is a slight bending of the yield curve, not money printing, which I think is right; but they overlook the speculation driven by liquidity they create in the banks."
So true - speculation is rife now!

Here's how I summarize the Deflationists arguments:

+ What matters, and needs watching is not just M2 or M3, it is: Money AND CREDIT
+ Credit risks are now shaky and if credit is withdrawn, the economy will suffer
+ Bank balance sheets are greatly weakened and they cannot sustain credit growth at former levels
+ Excessive money creation (Quantitative Easing) and accounting gimmicks have delayed price discovery
+ Overall the credit bubble is getting worse, and price discovery cannot be delayed indefinitely
+ Problems have spread to the government sector, and the next crisis may start with sovereign and state debt
+ As debts are written down, there will be a flight to safety - which will benefit the US dollar and short term treasuries
+ Gold has a role to play, since it will avoid default (if held as physical), but the price can drop if the USD rises

The worst of the deleveraging mess may be seen in 2012 or 2013

My Suggestions:

+ Watch PIIGS bond yields, and possible defaults in key US states
+ Watch copper, especially if weakness there spreads to lower oil prices

joe

Virgil - It is a totally different process. And Shell is treating this matter like a "national secret" since 2008 or 2009. You bet though, the problem with extraction as I understood it was an environmtal concern in the extraction of the synthetic - the concern was mostly that it had to use so much water and it fouls the water. I think they must have gotten around the problem, that is what they were trying to do.

I'll tell you something else I know - if Shell has a new process Chevron will have one too. Chevron is the company that got Gulf Oil's leases on tracks of that land when they broke up. They still have them - I checked.

Joe

Mamma Boom Boom

>I've been gone for a bit studying how history repeats.<

Did you figure out why there is a vacuum in space? It's because 'the world sucks'.

I've been on a sell signal. After today, I assume all my indicators will be in full agreement.

Judge Roy Bean

Mamma,

Is HELL a coming?

Keep your predicts a coming Mamma.

Judge

Judge Roy Bean

Short Oil?

Watch Copper, if it caves short it all. Teetering on the line.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history.gif?s=NYMEX_HG.K11&t=l&w=15&a=50&v=dmax

Judge

Bird

I'm on it Mamma. I think it is why Electrolux is in every house.

Mamma Boom Boom

-Another housing indicator hits a New Low-

Radar Logic, RPX Composite price will continue to exhibit year-on-year declines throughout 2011.

"No matter what you call it, a 'double dip' or the continuation of a long process of deterioration, the current trend in home prices is evidence that housing markets are continuing to languish," said Quinn Eddins, Director of Research at Radar Logic. "We expect the negative trend to continue under a severe supply overhang that includes a large and growing 'shadow inventory' of homes in default or foreclosure."

http://www.screencast.com/users/MammaB/folders/Default/media/7565b21b-68dc-4efa-b64c-a71b02a59b10

Account Deleted

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/03/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell.html

joe

Chartanalyst - I don't know anything about Slothhower. What do you think of him???

Joe

Hockthefarm

Y:

It is a dangerous market out there. Friends tell me sustained $110 oil will shave a percent off gdp. $120 could shave off another point. If the unrest spreads, we could see some crazy down days.

OTOH, if someone takes out Gadhafi, we could get back to the $90's quickly and see some strong up days in the markets.

People are fighting for freedom and Gadhafi is using war planes on them. I think we have to step in. Therefor we should ultimately resolve to the upside.

My point is that charts, patterns and cycles are useless during these times. There are too many potential outcomes to try and predict price x time relationships into the future. Better to sit it out.

What do you think?

Hock

yelnick

Hock, during events markets can jink & jive outside of normal bands, so in the short run news can trump waves. But it settles back to trend quickly. Charts, waves, etc are not useless but the normal odds of a move shift to more extremes (78% retrace istead of 50%, that sort of thing). Hence they appear useless since pattern recognition fals as you enter a low-odds territory. 

Let me provide a different and easier way of looking at it. Fractal Finance is based on thermodynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems, in which the plateau or trading range is a concept seen across many systems, not just markets. During the plateau stage the system stays at the edge of chaos, seeking order. The fluctuations are largely stochastic, and humans put wave labels on later. But as you know corrections are hard to count. The nominal tops & bottoms are essentially noise. When the system finds order, it bifurcates out of the plateau in a thrust. EW calls that an impulse. Only the plateau (the range) and bifurcation (the new direction) are signal. Counting the waves in between is counting the number of angels who fit on the head of a pin sort of stuff. Intellectually interesting, but essentially a false sense of knowledge. Just watch the range and the bifurcation.


There is some indication that the timing of a trading range follows certain patterns – fib or repetition ratios – so as we approach an end point candidate one can go onto high alert. Drawing a box around a plateau is usually helpful to show a key insight: if the plateau lasts longer than the prior thrust, a trend change is more likely. If less, much less likely. 


Is oil in a plateau or a thrust? In the 1999-2008 era, especially after we invaded Iraq, it was in a clear thrust that ended as a parabolic blow off.  Altho it has doubled off the bottom since, it is in much slower thrust, which indicates a corrective pattern against a trend change to down. More recently, it entered a plateau in Nov around $90 and stayed there until a couple of weeks ago, then began a new thrust. 


At the scale of months, this is still a potential False Break, if it reverses quickly; and perhaps US intervention would do that. Otherwise I think it continues to run, and the 'good news' you speak of is more likely to put it into a new plateau at a higher level than a change of direction.  The Arab Revolt is not going to be over just because Qaddafi wins or loses; it is rolling across the whole region.


What would likely break it is either (a) a tightening of money to dampen speculation or (b) a loosening of oil drilling in the US. 


EW says news doesn't move markets, altho it can jink them; and I agree. Fractal Finance adds that systems seek order, and usually remain at the edge of chaos. The plateau represents energy in and out, in somewhat balance, until a direction is discovered. The direction is usually found when conditions change, such as an opening of new drilling. It might take years for the actual drilling to occur, and years to find new oil, but he change in the regulatory dynamic can change the energy (speculation) into the system (oil). 

Judge Roy Bean

"What do you think?"

I think the same thing I thought a few days ago. Are you going to give me a reason to think differently.

Now if you want me to think differently what you might do is read this, "Â Fractal Finance is based on thermodynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems, in which the plateau or trading range is a concept seen across many systems, not just markets. During the plateau stage the system stays at the edge of chaos, seeking order."

Then ask the question(s)?

Do you have any real market data to support this thesis?

I really don't understand what the f you are really trying to even communicate, except perhaps blow me out of the universe with all of your lingo ... can you put a picture to this? How about laymen's lingo? Got any of that?

Do you have any mathematical market models to support this thesis?

Can you go up to the chalk board, or better yet, within 10 minutes, can you give all of us blog readers a mathematical tretis on what a nonlinear chaotic system looks like, in pure mathematical terms?

If you can not, then what are you trying to do? Blow smoke up our arses?

Hock, wake up please. This is getting old. This blog thanks to more than one is a literal hoot.

How much money have you really lost the last few years?

Good Lord Hock, I am rooting for you, but I don't know, it is going to take all I can muster to keep it up.

Judge (A Former Parasite Reincarnated)

Judge Roy Bean

"Judge, everyone struggles to find the impulse off March 2009 given the odd behavior in the middle (Sep-Nov 2009) of what should have been wave 3 of 3."

Interesting. Who is or was talking 3 of 3?

Very very interesting.

What was most interesting to me was how quickly the response was given. A response that really does not give me much to go on, one way or the other. Basically to me just gibberish, as really I would like to learn more.

It appears to me there are too many quick response given here. Way too many.

Then ?? immmediately came with another response. Did ?? the expert see something in the count I posted? And want to get his dibs in too? I do think ole ?? has something to offer, as do all of us. Yes I think so.

And the Trannies sucked today.

Here is the count again. Non updated.

http://img847.imageshack.us/i/110306thetran.png/

The count shows an 'a' off the low and a 'b' and then a 'c' terminal. But terminals per this blog are rare birds.

In fact in that chart there are two terminals. Both are charted as expanding triangles. The one of most importance is the 'c' of b or the 'c' of 'B' depending on how one labels.

And IF one was really interested in 'EW' theory and all that, they would have taken notice of this. Why?

Because on 'most' of the other major indices there is a possible way to count the move off the last major low as an impulse. Yes it can be argued about. But there is a way, with only arguable rule violations, if any.

In the Trannies there is no way that I have found. Maybe you can find some.

There is one other major indice that is similar. You go find it.

And if one is really interested in EW theory go work on the VLE.

Judge

Judge Roy Bean

I have a mansion, forget the price.
Ain't never been there they tell me it's nice.
I live in hotels, tear out the walls.
I have accountants pay for it all.
They say I'm crazy, but I have a good time.
I'm just looking for clues at the scene of the crime.
Life's been good to me so far.
My Masarati does one-eighty-five.
I lost my license, now I don't drive.
I have a limo, ride in the back.
I lock the doors in case I'm attacked.
I'm makin' records, my fans they can't wait.
They write me letters, tell me I'm great.
So I got me an office, gold records on the wall.
Just leave a message, maybe I'll call.
Lucky I'm sane after all I've been through.
(Everybody say I'm cool......He's cool)
I can't complain but sometimes I still do.
Life's been good to me so far
(One really fantastic guitar solo that radio idiots too often cut up)
I go to parties, sometimes until 4.
I'ts hard to leave when you can't find the door.
It's tought to handle this fortune and fame.
Everybody's so different, I haven't changed.
They say I'm lazy but it takes all my time
(Everybody say oh, yeah.....OH,YEAH)
I keep on going guess I'll never know why.
Life's been good to me so far. (yeah,yeah,yeah)

And I know EW like none other
Just believe, believe and all will be well
Trust me for I know of what I speak
Oh Yeah, really it is all true ....

Judge

yelnick

Judge, the 3 of 3 is required in an impulse. It is the point of acceleration, the steep rise often with a gap. In the five wave count off Mar 2009, wave 3 began in July 2009, and the steep part should have come between Aug and Oct. Instead we got chop with overlapping waves. That dog that didn't bark has to be explained. Either it is not an impulse or wave 5 which we are in would need to extend and have within it that acceleration point.

yelnick

Judge, go read Mandelbrot's work showing the market is a chaotic nonlinear system of an underlying fractal nature. The thrust and plateau is from the study of such systems. Standard stuff in that world.

Hockthefarm

Y:

My comments were prompted by a conversation I had with a money manager friend over the weekend. Interestingly he has switched to trading stock and bond etf's using dynamic stops and a fairly tight leash. He was stopped out completely about a week ago and is happy to sit and watch.

Appreciate your insights and the time taken to respond.

Hock

Judge Roy Bean

"Judge, the 3 of 3 is required in an impulse. It is the point of acceleration, the steep rise often with a gap."


You mean the iii of 3?

And the gap? We can argue but from ~ 1975 to 2007 I think we may have witnessed an extraordinaire 3rd wave. I may have labeled it as a iii but that is a minor point.

Are there any big gaps in the dailies or the weeklies during this period, during up trends?

Judge

Judge Roy Bean

"Judge, go read Mandelbrot's work showing the market is a chaotic nonlinear system of an underlying fractal nature. The thrust and plateau is from the study of such systems. Standard stuff in that world."

No Yelnick, I do not need to go read Mandelbrot's work.

I was asking you some questions.

I did not get any answers. Just more 'standard stuff'.

I am a hick from the sticks Yelnick.

I don't trust anyone, let alone someone who is willing to plagarize, then make up over night.

Are like the little fellow who sat in front of the class all during the lower grades, and raised your hand at every opportunity? Did you want to be the teaches pet? Or did you want to be the teach?

You trying to be the teach here or what?

Well you ain't impressing me.

Only one supposed guru has been more wrong than Prechter and/or Neely of recent. You my man. You.

AND you influence the poor Hocks of the world.

So Da Judge is taking you on.

Judge

Hockthefarm

Judge:

I am fairly tolerant of rude people. They are usually fairly productive and good at their jobs. I also like simple folks, whom are also productive given the right tasks.

It is the rude simpletons that get to me and I've had my share of fun running them out on the street over the years.

Apart from being rude, you are the only poster i've read since the internet went mainstream that actually called himself a fucking arsehole in his own post. You beat the "shit for branes" post by 3 converted touchdowns and a field goal.

The belt reference referred to Ned Beaty's portrayal of Judge Roy Bean (Streets of Laredo) as a big tub of shit that hadn't seen his own nuts for 20 years.

But thanks for letting us all know that you know how to spell gubmint. Let's call it the icing on the cake.

Good luck Mr Chimp,
Hock

Judge Roy Bean

I have a mansion, forget the price.
Ain't never been there they tell me it's nice.
I live in hotels, tear out the walls.
I have accountants pay for it all.
They say I'm crazy, but I have a good time.
I'm just looking for clues at the scene of the crime.
Life's been good to me so far.
My Masarati does one-eighty-five.
I lost my license, now I don't drive.
I have a limo, ride in the back.
I lock the doors in case I'm attacked.
I'm makin' records, my fans they can't wait.
They write me letters, tell me I'm great.
So I got me an office, gold records on the wall.
Just leave a message, maybe I'll call.
Lucky I'm sane after all I've been through.
(Everybody say I'm cool......He's cool)
I can't complain but sometimes I still do.
Life's been good to me so far
(One really fantastic guitar solo that radio idiots too often cut up)
I go to parties, sometimes until 4.
I'ts hard to leave when you can't find the door.
It's tought to handle this fortune and fame.
Everybody's so different, I haven't changed.
They say I'm lazy but it takes all my time
(Everybody say oh, yeah.....OH,YEAH)
I keep on going guess I'll never know why.
Life's been good to me so far. (yeah,yeah,yeah)

And I know EW like none other
Just believe, believe and all will be well
Trust me for I know of what I speak
Oh Yeah, really it is all true ....

Oh Yeah, we have the 3 of 3's
And the gaps to beat them all
Just ask me and I will tell you
About all them gold records on the wall
And how I made it all through my EW ...

Oh Yeah, Oh Yeah ....

Then there is my friend
Good Ole Rory Bryne
He comes from BAC
But I'm telling you were on the up and up

Oh Yeah, Oh Yeah

Judge (A Former Parasite Reincarnated)

Judge Roy Bean

Dear Hock,

Least I still have my nutz to lick.

I think your's are long gone.

You lost it all taking listening to the advice given on this blog. You have admitted such in prior posts.

Judge (I hope really you get your nutz back, Copper is down my man, did you call it?).

Judge Roy Bean

I don't have a mansion, know of no price
I can barely speak let along write
I have no money no interest in it all
I only have four dogs and I love them all
Life is simple yet been so kind
They say I'm crazy but what does that mean
Is it you or am I out in the extreme
Life has been good to me
I can't complain
When I look around I see the Hock's
No way for me I'll keep my own socks
For Hock lost it all and is so afraid
He can't accept life's little tirade
It's all about those gold records on the wall
I got mine and that is all I need
Oh Yeah, Oh Yeah!

Vi Snakkes Hockster!

Judge

DG

Then ?? immmediately came with another response. Did ?? the expert see something in the count I posted? And want to get his dibs in too? I do think ole ?? has something to offer, as do all of us. Yes I think so.

I didn't even look at your wave count, but I'm sure it's wrong. Why? Because you've never shown even the slightest capability in following wave count construction rules or logic. I have about as much interest in your wave counts as I do in your song parodies, which is to say none.

I posted my wave count because I wanted to, not because you posted one. The blog doesn't revolve around you, actually. Also, my wave count, which I had initially constructed once we broke back above the November high in December, had the virtue of actually being accurate in portending a turn at the 1340 level, as I had stated was likely months ago.

One of the reasons I stopped bothering to post here much was because I found that I was right on turning points so often, yet when I posted what I thought was going on, I would get so much grief about my forecasts before they happened that I finally said screw it, I know that I'm going to be proven right, why do I need to put myself through the crap of arguing with these idiots until it happens? If this blog had a decent "search by post author" function, it would be easy to show that.

LDA

A question regarding quantitative easing--Perhaps someone can answer this:

If the Federal Gov't hits the debt limit without an extension or such, would the buying of bonds under the quantitative easing program stop?

thanks/LDA

Virgil

Do you have any mathematical market models to support this thesis?

There are a lot of information out there if you look. Complexity theory seems to be big now (big in the nerdosphere at least). Here's a good one:

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/0405/0405257v2.pdf

Steve

Elliott thinks there is going to be bear.
But other say "Wait, there's no scare."
For iii of 3 comes but
hold onto your Tums
It's going UPward
not down there.

Franctals and Mandelbrot prove the markets are timelessly changing. I would definitely bet on ol JP Morgan's saying

"If you don't like the stock market now... stick around!"

Virgil

http://www2.fiu.edu/~dupoyetb/lattice.pdf

Ry-Jie

Holy moley that is a boring paper, Virgil! And one I don't have time to read! Could you please synopsize and give practical advice to help me make money?

Thanks,

Ry

yelnick

LDA, would QE2 continue after hitting a debt limit? In general, yes – much of QE is to buy paper being rolled over from past indebtedness. Fed could also use other methods to try to lower the mid-term rates. 

joe

Yelnik - don't you think QE would have to accelerate if the debt limit was not raised?

If they did not they would have a bond nightmare.

Joe

Mamma Boom Boom

Judge Roy Bean, did you shoot Bad Bob the Albino in the back?

joe

Yelnik -

Maybe you could do a post about this contracting range. Was 1344/1295 (now more like 1303/1331)- breaks above or below probably have fairly significant consequences and are likely (I think) to develop fairly soon.

Joe

The comments to this entry are closed.