New Blog Platforms

Planet Yelnick began as an email exchange and then a private newsletter after the dot-com bubble burst. Been a great ride but I am changing focus. A new tech boom is on and my attention is there. My new blog platform is: http://bullpencap.com/.

For fun I will occasionally blog about travel and cultural issues. In a week or so the travel blog becomes the new Yelnick start page. 

Comments

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>A new tech boom is on and my attention is there.<

That'll leave a mark.

[Fan]

I've been on a sell signal. After today, I assume all my indicators will be in full agreement.

Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Monday, March 07, 2011 at 10:02 AM

Mamma,

I've been watching this blog for the last year and watched how you correctly called the rally after the May/July downturn. Monday you made the statement above about all of your indicators possibly pointing to a sell. Did that come to pass? Also, in a post about a month ago you were forecasting a downturn back to the 666 S&P level sometime during 2011. Is this still your prediction? Thanks. I'm a fan :)

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Fan: No, one indicator is still holding back. But, there is enough technical evidence to declare this the beginning of the downturn. I can say that with, at least, 90% conviction (which is pretty darn convinced).

As for falling all the way back to 666, and/or taking it out, I can't say it will happen this year. But I believe it will happen before this bear dies. Like I've tried to get through to everyone: our government has only made the problem bigger. When it blows up next time, it'll be a terrible sight to witness.

Neo-Mamma

[I've Been Prechterized]

Looks like someone has finally thrown in the towel on Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave Theory.

[Teshoo Lama]

Great. Another Greater Fool ponzi scheme is underway with self-appointed 'angels' foisting yet more neurotic consumer lifestyle crap down the throats of the Sheeple when they need it least.

God I hope you fail and the whole rotten edifice of 'tech' crumbles. It's built on nothing but monstrous credit expansion and its attendant mass delusion. A future Charles McKay will one day reflect on the idea that humans can exchange 1s and 0s in the hope of creating wealth and well-being.

[joe]

I really wish you well. I do think you are right about a new tech boom. I don't know how much or far the social media aspects drive this. I wish I did know.

At any rate I wish you great success and want to tell you that I very much have appreciated your blogs.

Best to you.

Joe

[OracleLurker]

Definitely time to focus on the nascent tech boom - I really don't see on a cloud on the horizon for tech at this time except, wait a minute what's this on zero hedge... oh crap.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/finisair-plummets-35-after-company-stuns-weak-outlook-chinese-business-slowdown-blamed

seriously Yelnick I look forward to your tech musings and - I called Shanghai wave 3 first!

[Fan]

Mamma, Thanks for the feedback. I look forward to your continued updates.

Fan

[I've Been Prechterized]

Is it really a tech boom?
Or is it a BUBBLE caused by The Bernanke and QE???

[yelnick]

Joe, thanks for the kind words. I always enjoyed your comments. 

[yelnick]

Lama, yep, the whole 1's and 0's thing has been a complete mass delusion. All those mainframes and PCs and iPads and cellphones and just about eryething else digital are all about to shown for the utter waste of time they are. Wave Rust, your analog 8 track is coming back!

[yelnick]

Prechterized, use me as a contrary signal if you like, of something or other. I haven't thrown in the towel on wave stuff but have refocused from trading to investing. Maybe the tech boom will fizzle and I will be back. 

[yelnick]

OraclelUrker, you sure did! Great call on Shanghai. On the tech boom, it is right now very focused on social mobile web stuff – Internet deals if you like. The older generation of tech deals, like Finisar, are not what I am talking about. In 1995, investors in the new telecom/networking stuff did great; in the older PC and semiconductor stuff, not so great. In 2011, same dynamic, but this time it is new new social stuff vs the optical/networking stuff of the '90s. 

[yelnick]

Prechterized, this new social/mobile/web boom started well before QE2, and is growing amidst a reduction in VC money & a dearth of tech IPOs – the opposite of what you would expect if this were driven by liquidity and easy credit. 

[Eventhorizon]

Bummer. One of my first stops in the day.

All the best Yel, I have enjoyed your insights.

Eventhorizon

[George]

Yelnick…

First, congrats on the new blog and moving on.

I do hope that your idea that we are near a ramp up in Tech is spot on; it was interesting to see the lightbulbs go off in real time at your prior blog.

Before you go there is one question I’d meant to ask a month ago on the count in the market — have you ever considered a diagonal overlapping triangle from the Dow 41 low in 1932 to the year 2000 top? You know constant Dow numbers. In constant Dow the whole 70-plus year rally overlaps; a very different picture (a diagonal triangle), but one that fits where we should be relative to the late 1700′s bottom and the end of a major 5 wave sequence of more than 200 years — especially if said sequence is a terminal 5th of a greater wave.

From the year 2000 top we then have wave I down and a simple ABC II retrace with wave III down imminent. The length of the I -- II (10-plus years) makes sense only in the context of the rally from the late 1700's being a 5th of a very long wave.

Best regards,

George

[yelnick]

Event, I always knew you were reading even when you held off commenting. All the best to you!

[Wave Rust]

Duncan,
I hope you get to spend time with your wife and kids too.

If i'm ever in palo I'll ring you up and buy you a digital latte.

If you ever want to borrow C.C. Rider or Suite Judy Blue Eyes on 8-track, I'll send them to you ,,,, in a Netflix box. :)

Anyone who has ever been here, whether writing a comment or just reading, knows that you have been a gentleman to all who stopped by. That's rare, online or offline.

"A new tech boom is on and my attention is there."
You call it a tech boom and I've been calling it a Bull Market ,,,, same game in a different wrapper, I guess. :))

I've read most of your posts at least once. The posts always had your interests and, usually the interess of most readers in mind. That is hard to do. I will miss that. Alot!

Good luck and God bless.

And, many thanks for many things.

Wave Rust

Never fade the Fed, right!? :)

[yelnick]

Hi George, thanks for checking out the new blog then coming home to here. Your idea is novel and quite intriguing – a huge Ending Diagonal/Neely Terminal since 1932 (constant dollar). It s a bit difficult to make it work given that an ED needs converging trendlines & should be a 33333 structure, where in this case waves 3 5 (82-00) is a good example of an impulse five-wave pattern.  Let me propose two alternatives for you to chew on:

That the 1932-1982 period is a large ABC corrective wave, an irregular flat. The top of 1966 is not that far above 1929 on an inflation-adjusted basis. Within guidelines for a flat. Then the great bull run from 1982-2000 is wave 5 which may not be over; the 2000-2009 period (or longer) could be wave 4 (1987 is wave 2) of this unfolding pattern.That 1929 was the end of wave 1 up from the 1784 area; the break after 1837 was wave 2, and the flat period around Dow 100 from 1900-1921 was wave 4. Ten the correction to 1982 mentioned in point 1 is merely a large flat wave 2, and the bull run from 1982 to 2000 (or longer if we are still in wave 4 of it) is the kickoff of a huge wave 3. 

[Fan]

Mamma, Do you post your thoughts on any other blogs, since this one will be ending soon? Or do you have your own blog?

[yelnick]

Wave, very nice comment, thanks! I will miss this blog and (most) of the readers who participated, including of course you and your analog world of a new bull market. Please stop by when in town.

As a CC Rider fan, you will appreciate that I named one of my startups SkyPilot after the song. It was a outdoor broadband mesh and I loved the line "How high can you fly? You'll never, ever, catch the Sky!".  It was a much faster version of Metricom, which started as a power meter reading mesh, then with Paul Allen's money morphed into a broadband mesh; SkyPilot started as a broadband mesh, and was eventually bought by a cleantech company to use it for – power meter reading on the Smart Grid. Things go around and come around. Maybe someday an iPod will sound as good as a vinyl LP. 

[what ever happened to P3?]

Yelnick

I will miss your comments and thoughts but hope you will now admit that Prechter and gang are a bunch of clowns. they are milking a perspective for one purpose and that is not the best interest of their paying subscribers. Sadly, it is to make $$. I haven't been around EW very long but it seems to me to be a bit like art in that people see in the waves what they want. Those calling for the big drop have been soo wrong and unfortunately some like me fell for all the hype.

[George]

I'd thought for a while that the 1784 run to now was building a terminal 5th from a long time prior, how that ends is the issue. 1982 on sure did feel impulsive in nominal terms. Your idea that the wave from the 2000 peak to H'09 is a wave IV makes eminent sense as there has never been a secular top of consequence in any market that has gone sideways from a high point for 10 plus years and then lost 80-plus percent of valuation. A new high is what 'should' happen if history repeats. Rogoff's book skews the probability near 1 of that happening. I can add that sentiment favors this as well; people are bearish -- at least people I talk to. I know the AAII etc. numbers are all nearing extremes for a top but when you talk to people on the ground they are afraid and tentative, scratch them and they want to hedge what they have on.

Best,

George

[Bill C]

Thank you for all you have done. I know I will continue to enjoy your writing in the future and if you feel the need, throw in a wave count. I haven't felt this sad since Den Beste retired. Well at least you aren't writing about Hentai.

[DG]

Yelnick,

See you around. Hey, I read a review of a book called "Wave Theory for Alternative Investments" that seemed like it would be right up your alley. Author's name is Stephen Todd Walker. Of course, knowing how much you read, you may have already heard of it and/or read it, but I'd be remiss not to mention it.

[Edwin]

Yelnick,

You said to Wave..."Please stop by when in town".

Would you extend the same invitation to me? can I drop by your office for coffee? How do I become one of your investors?

[da bear]

George,

I think we could be in Millennial Wave IV with 3 of C imminent.
In this will be a huge crash and possibly the Second Coming around one generation
(80 years) of the foundation of Israel (1949). So perhaps 2029?

That would be followed by a Thousand Year Millennial Wave V.

For an illustration check out Figure 8-3 in Elliott Wave Principle. The 4 on that chart is
the 1987 Crash. The next big downtrend should have been labeled wave A of IV with the next top being wave B (2007). After that is the Crash of C, the majority of which will take place in 3 of C down. ... As a follow-up Figure 5-7 in At the Crest of the Tidal Wave is a good update. In that 1 of C down bottomed in 2009 and 2 of C up is over or nearly so.

da bear

[Wave Rust]

Yel,
ya got me smilin' with that response.

I wonder what a unique time of the 60's and 70's music would have made of Ipods and videos. It might have been so big that we'd still be in the 60's and 70's genre of real melodies and real lyrics.

Eric Burdon and the Animals morphed alot too, but all in analog mode ,,,, most are still alive ,,,, Eric's voice gets huskier with time but I think it might be the age of the 8 track tape! :)

Maybe an Ipod's cousin, the Ipad, will replace the meter-reader Skypilot by "reading" the next generation of live QR codes on the power meters, and do it from the street.

How many 1's and 0's do you take in your Latte?

Cheers

Wave Rust

No top in sight for this SuperCycle Bull market, riding a tech boom at the speed of hyper-inflation. "Caution: Watch out when the bucking Brahma bull dips its head while in a spin!"

[yelnick]

P3, I think Prechter and gang are not clowns but serious analysts who have an incorrect bigger market picture that biases their analysis, specifically that we are in a huge 100 year bear market of the order of the South Seas Bubble and its aftermath, and that the current correction has a much deeper swan dive ahead to levels that would shock the senses if they come true. Neely on the other hand does not share that view. My wish for both of them is they stay focused on the smaller picture and eschew their big-picture bias. 

[yelnick]

George, I see this as a 16-20 year sideways market, followed by a rip roaring bull market again (waves I call 49W4 and 49W5, completing the whole run since the end f the Depression). Still, it may be the worst is ahead, that the deeper dive is at the end of the correction. As you point out, that did not happen in 1837-1859 nor in 1929-1949, at least in nominal terms.

What is troubling is in real terms the aftermath of 1999 is pretty awful – the Dow in gold terms is down a lot, maybe as much as the 1929-1932 range (89%). The last two times we didn't trash the currency, albeit FDR did a forced 40% devaluation in 1933 when he repriced gold. This time it is unclear what will happen to the Dollar. If we may be approaching a serious currency crisis that drives the market lower. If so, history will judge us as kicking the can down the road by avoidong fixing the credit crisis until it was too late.  

[yelnick]

Bill C, appreciate that. You should know that you are one of the tabs in may daily blog scan! I love the eclectic mix. 

[yelnick]

DG, thanks for the book reference. I will check it out. I will also be patiently waiting to read your book on your trading method. Don't hold back on us!

[yelnick]

Wave, I have patiently waited for the iPad2 and expect to stand in the lines on Friday to pick one up. And one for my wife. I am off to Singapore right after to pitch some investors. My mantra: 

"The 'Pad is the new paper"

So much easier and more natural to sit next to a person and use the 'Pad to pitch. Almost a conversation instead of a presentation.  Will also change corporate document sharing and collaboration. Change should dwarf the PC, which saddled us with boring PowerPoints and bad font explosions. 

My next step is to experiment with the video in it. My daughter is a professional film-maker and she uses the Canon 7D 35mm still camera for video to get that 35mm effect which goes away with camcorders. I am pondering how to augment the 'Pad to make it a better video experience. She thinks of it as a way to view the "dailies" in realtime, vastly improving the productivity of the director. 

As to the '60s, bought the Beatles Box and love the few videos that came with it. The Beatles experimented with music videos well before MTV. Imagine (sorry the pun) the 'Pad as a new medium for music videos. They would have loved it, certainly. 

As to binary latte's, my drink is the expresso machiatto. Just a stain of milk. 

73's to you. 

[yelnick]

Edwin, ping me over at yelnick (at) davi.net

[Hockthefarm]

Y:

I had a feeling this day was coming. Really too bad for the whole lot of us. Thanks for sharing your excellent insights. Good luck investing in the social mobile.
All the very best,
H

C'mon now wave!
"I wonder what a unique time of the 60's and 70's music would have made of Ipods and videos."

The 70's was all about hanging in the park, chatting with friends and listening to the family radio and turnin it up when a good one came on. It just wouldn't have been the same:

"And she was blinded by the light,
Cut loose like a deuce
Another runner in the night."

I'm glad I heard it on the radio.

Take care,
Hock

[Hockthefarm]

Y:

""The 'Pad is the new paper"

So much easier and more natural to sit next to a person and use the 'Pad to pitch. Almost a conversation instead of a presentation."

What a cool idea. My pitches are usually to 4 to 6 folks sitting around a table. Could you link a half dozen pads and do a "meet me" while sharing my pad. No paper prevents bootlegs to the competition. Also opens the door to follow-up correspondence and relationship building. In a word it would be fantastic.

For this type of meeting I go with paper handouts to keep it close and friendly. A projector just overpowers the setting.
Hock

[MT]

Yelnick, I will miss your postings. But I will visit your new blog some times for nostalgic feelings. I wish you the best and good luck. Thanks for what you did.

MT (Mario Talente)

[yelnick]

Hock, always enjoyed your POV and market thoughts. Love the handle, too!

[yelnick]

Hock, yes, that is where this will go: groups with 'Pads and following presentations. I see bridge games on iPads already – fast shuffling!  I am looking at startups in this area.

I learned years ago that whereas a picture was worth a thousand words, a face was worth a thousand pictures. The presenter is part of the presentation, and sitting staring a ta screen removes the person from the audience. Holding the pad and talking naturally, with gestures for emphasis and changing slides, is a much higher-touch way to convey ideas. 

When the 'Pad is the paper, a whole new set of opportunities come up, such as secure editing & collaboration. Then add a webex sort of video pitch or conference  call with live feedback/comments. Etc. Etc. Etc. 

One of my investments is Livescribe, a digital pen. I have been working with them to invert the model from live notes in a paper notebook, to paper as an input medium and notes in the cloud, easily carried around in a 'Pad. One of their coolest ideas is a pencast – draw with a pen and talk, creating a mini-movie with a soundtrack. We might be approaching over a million of them out in the wild. Teachers for example love them as a way to do mini-lessons and let the students listen and study later. When they have tablets this will be natural and empowering. 

[yelnick]

Mario, grazie! 

[Hockthefarm]

Couldn't agree more. Good luck with it.

Cheers,
Hock

[Chabazite]

Very sad that you have decided to focus elsewhere, but I understand that is where your interest lays. Thank you for your tremendous efforts over recent months. I have learned a lot. Chab.

[KRG]

Duncan:

Will be missing your updates. All the best and keep the interest in "what drives behaviour" alive

Cheers

[Darkknight]

Yelnick

Never posted but long time reader. Sorry to see you go and good luck. Enjoyed reading your blog for years.

Just a question. I noticed you never really mentioned McHugh in your blogs. I was wondering what your thoughts of him and his analysis were? I used to subscribe but found his permabearish bias wore on my patience.

Cheers

[Joe]

Good luck and thank you for your years of observation on EW. But ever more thanks on bringing all the diverse opinions of a very strange group from around the world.

long time reader

Joe De

[Hank Wernicki]

Good Luck Yelnick

Yes, forget about the big picture and concentrate on a smaller time frame

It's called day trading

Hank

[William Stockwell]

Yelnick: Good luck. Hate to see u go, but one must move on!
Per the comments, many feel the same!

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Fan .... this is the only one. Sometimes it takes up too much of my time.

I don't think we're going anywhere, though.

[Sherman "Double Short" McCoy]

I guess when the last bear throws in the towel, it's finally time to sell. It looks like your best call.

[rc]

Yelnick - excellent blog! It's long been one of my very few must reads on a daily basis. I'm very sorry to see you moving on as this has become a small community. Best of luck. And, thanks for sharing your thoughts and always being a real gentleman.

Mamma and others... stick around for at least a while... I'd still like to follow your thoughts... and forward any new blog locations to us. And, thanks to you all too!