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« Skip Danger Forum | Main | Santa Rally in the Nick of Time »

Sunday, November 27, 2011

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Virgil

Well welcome back Yelnick. Just in time for some fierce gap filling rally this week. Last week gave us some clues on the holiday mentality this year. The lows for the year are not in.
Thanks for the fractal update. Counting waves in Euro and AUD has been interesting the past six months. Lots of overlapping mess.

The Bull

I was checking an international tension Neely post (concerning 2006 rally) and how international tensions preceed rallies and saw you have returned. Welcome back Yelnick.

International tensions are socionomically bullish. All these Pakistan Afghanistan tensions nailed this big rally.

Virgil

Interesting Bull.
What was bullish about killing Bin Ladin?

BTW, if anybody's out there, the Euro is breaking down as we speak.

The Bull

Killing Bin Laden wasnt much of international tension, just a police raid.

International tensions are more like the Libyan NATO escalation that occurred during the big October rally.

The greediest people on earth are politicians and power seekers. I dont call them world leaders because they dont lead much of anything, they just seek power and status.

When the power seekers make moves and make news, it means greed is in the air and stocks will typically rally in socionomic fashion.

The Bull

Yelnick do you have a post with more info on this? ".....a prediction of several years ago by Bob Prechter, that the top would be in January 2012"

thanks

Virgil

Looks like it's just you and me Bull.
Start looking first in the favorite book of your taijitu otouto, da bear. The 20 year cycle tops in 2012:

http://books.google.com/books?id=oeZrtxGiQz0C&pg=PA463&dq=at+the+crest+of+the+tidal+wave+20+year+cycle&hl=en&ei=bZvVTp3KG66CsALJyNygDw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CC8Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false

Incidentally, this means early 2020s should be rather unpleasant when it bottoms

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-26.html

OracleLurker

Great to see you have posted again Yelnick.

maybe it's 1939?

we could be just 2-3 years from the end of this secular bear. Undoubtedly the pundits will see all world markets as stuck in a permanent bear like Japan at the point when the mean reversion (undershoot?) process has finally completed.

Ashish Agarwal

Great to see your back Yelnick. Your point, your way to put things in perpective was sorely missing for so many weeks. Request you to post occassionally, say every 15 days or a month. I am sure you would like it too.

Virgil

This bear market will last about as long as Tebow's 4th quarter luck

The Bull

There appears to be a leading diagonal selloff in Soybean daily chart off the August highs.

http://www.finviz.com

Many other commodities are selling off here too.

Thats bullish for stocks, corporate profits soar with lower material costs.

Chabazite

Hi Yelnick - Just checked your site on the off chance you had posted something. Thank you for the update, allbeit a few weeks old now. I trust you are well. In England we always seem to turn to Dickens for our entertainment at this time of the year. There is something infinitely familiar and timeless about the characters that we find reassuring. So I will leave you with a simple Dickensian request as spoken by Oliver Twist: "Please Sir, I want some more". (Of course, this is not to be confused with the infinitely LESS tasteful American version - "Thank you sir, may I have another" :) ) Happy Christmas. Chabazite.

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