AAPL Investors Face the Gravity of the Problem

Apple is falling to a key support level. It peaked around the levels I predicted, and has fallen fairly steadily since the iPhone 5 first weekend news of slow fulfillment.  Now we have unrest in their Foxconn factory. The stock today has dropped and plateaued for the moment right below the 640 support level. AllAboutTrends provides this chart in their newsletter today for guidance on where the stock may be going:

Comments

[Virgil]

That's a good call on Apple, Yelnick.

What do you think about this though. There are a couple reasons I see to be cautious about looking for too much downside. One is I recently got a Samsung S3 and and I am more than somewhat unimpressed with the Google Maps app. I've been lead astray more than a few times so far. This makes me rethink all this angst over Apple maps.
The other is the head and shoulders projects down to that trendline, so there is pretty solid support there.

The real one to watch out for I think is GOOG. That amazing run since the summer has lost a lot of steam now. Maybe the new iPad mini takes the wind of their Nexus sales?

[yelnick]

Virg, Apple is one hell of a company with an amazing market position. The question though is you are buying a stock and not a company. Can it meet expectations? The slowdowns are due to supply not demand, so it should be able to hit its goals, but over a longer period. The Street shouldn't get so stressed over this. 

Google with Android is doing well with a counter-positioning strategy, invading the low end of the market.  Cheap Android phones give it higher share in units than Apple, but the apps on iOS and the carriers who push iPhones make more money.  Apple is in a bit of a pickle, since they have to lose margin to come up with mid-market phones and tablets.  They seem determined to do this anyway, especially with the launch of the iPad Mini in a few weeks. It will lower margins and cannibalize iPad sales but is necessary to block the onslaught of Android in tablets.  Apple needs to figure out something similar for phones. Right now they cannot fulfill the sales they have, so no pressure to add a lower end phone.

I don;t have a dog in this hunt.  I started with the original Google phone before I got an iPhone and an iPad.  I have in front of my iPhone, iPad, Google Galaxy Nexus and an older Google Nexus One.  My next purchase is likely a Nexus 7 tablet.  I am in the business and need to play with all the toys.