The election year pattern charts I have been showing have a variety of bases; recent elections only, for example; or dividing between a re-election year vs. an open election year. The broadest look, in the chart below, going back to 1904, shows three patterns: all elections (black line), incumbent wins (green line), and incumbent party loses (red line). We are now at the moment when a divergence should emerge between the stay-the-course elections (black/green lines) and the change-elections (red lines):
Good to here from you again. Hope you are doing fine.
I'm betting on the resume of the correction that started september 14th.
If it's a big one,the surprise factor is not the november election I guess, but a rabbit out of the hat.
MT
Posted by: MT | Thursday, October 11, 2012 at 12:51 PM
My feeling was an Obama reelection would exacerbate the impending fiscal cliff problem because it would solidify political gridlock and polarization for at least a couple more years.
The problem with the election cycle this time around is it's running into interference with the World Series indicator.
American League winners traditionally mean lower market returns than NL winners. Unless the Cardinals can pull off another October miracle, both AL teams look tougher to beat this year.
The NLCS should be of interest because the SF Giants have played the Cardinals twice- in '87, which marked a market top, and in '02 which was a bottom.
Posted by: Virgil | Sunday, October 14, 2012 at 10:23 AM