Green Energy Falls Off the CleanTech Cliff

This is really sad for those who believe in a future of green energy, but for investors has sent a clear message: the Green Bubble has burst. Solar City delayed their IPO, Solyndra and others are wrecks of a solar bubble, and Tesla may become the only electric car company standing as Fisker is now in deep financial trouble. The renewable energy stocks are down an astounding 98% from their peak, showing the signature of a parabolic rise into a bubble and a fast linear collapse:

Comments

[Hockthefarm]

Virgil:

Absolutely no bull in Prechter. Doesn't think we will take out this year's spx highs and feels that 3 down is starting. Dow may kiss the trendline one more time.

He iss a raging bear.

Hock

[Virgil]

Hock, I saw the bulletin. I must have missed his initial trade. I wonder what his stop was before that he's now raising it. I guess he'll never give up.

The problem is looks like he's using Hochberg's goofy S&P truncated top as his stop instead of the real top as presented in the Dow. I might be looking for that stop to get hit and a double top printed like in 1976

www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/USSP5001970.gif

[R.N. Elliott]

That green energy chart looks bullish as heck to me.

5 waves up

ABC on a .618 retrace wave 2

R.N Elliot says buy buy buy.

[Virgil]

RNE, looks like a 5 wave impulse down to me. Presuming the green energy movement started at zero, it completed a corrective zigzag in 2008. It even took out the 2003 low pivot to confirm.

http://i49.tinypic.com/icsfx1.jpg

[Hockthefarm]

Virgil:

March 2012 was his time window for the drop to begin. I remember him covering it in the feb and march ewt.

December's ewt is going to be a good one. He has sure put himself out on a limb. As a minimum I'd say he is early by about 3 or 4 months, but he usually adds that caveat.

If we drop next week meaningfully (sniff the nov lows), I'll be buying with both hands and feet. Not going to hold my breath, but the ndx could make it interesting.

We just spent close to 7k$ on apple stuff and 3 friends are doing much the same. I think aapl has won the 50 something whose kids are in or near university age. Quality, everything links up were the drivers for us. Stock looks bad but I think earnings will surprise on the upside.

Hock

[Virgil]

Hock,

You're right about Apple. Most of my family & friends seem to be choosing them by default.

We're an Amazon household, however, with a prime membership and the roku. They also finally got an app for their cloud player, although it's no iTunes. I've been buying from Amazon probably since their IPO, so I'm pretty comfortable and loyal to the brand. We've even bought a good deal of groceries from them lately and, if AmazonFresh ever makes it's way out here, we'd be the first to sign up.

Dennenger mentioned this on his Market-Ticker this morning

http://naturalsociety.com/connecticut-shooter-adam-lanza-on-hardcore-psychotropic-drugs/

There was a rush to judgement in the Conn massacre. The gun culture wasn't responsible (although weapons training for an unstable schizoid was a horrible mistake by the historically idiotic parent). The real culprit was misdiagnosis, over-medication, and the culture of centrally managed control that gave rise to the "magic bullet" protocols of modern medicine

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/jul/14/illusions-of-psychiatry/?page=1

[Hockthefarm]

Virgil:

While I support your assessment, I think you have left out the real fluckup in this whole affair:

"Connecticut Shooter Adam Lanza's Guns Were Registered To Mother Nancy Lanza: Official"

She was in the best position to know the level of derangement of her son. To provide him with access to weapons like that speaks to "apples not falling far from the old tree".

I support all of the constitutional rights regarding guns. The problem isn't guns, it is the flucking *rseholes that own them like Ms Lanza.

If you want to own a 1000 round a minute chopper, fine. But you are responsible for every round fired from it throughout its service life. And when you don't want it any more, you are responsible for its destruction. The cost of monitoring all of this is built right in to the price of the gun.

There are many responsible gun owners and we should let them do their thing. It is the other gun owners that need to be stopped dead in their tracks.

Hock

[Virgil]

Hock, can't argue with that. Freedom and responsibility are two flips of the same coin. Hope you and yours have a Merry Christmas and an enjoyable one with the new Hi Fi.

And seasons greetings and congrats to Yelnick. Thanks for all the sharp insights over the years.

The clean tech chart looks almost exactly like the chart for natural gas. Doesn't make much sense going green if the US is really going to be the world's leader in oil & gas production by the end of the decade. What really makes me sad about this whole thing is the push away from nuclear. We should have all had Mr. Fusion home reactors by now.

I know a lot of people who saw Tim Cook on tv and are now really stoked about Apple doing for the manufacturing industry what they did for the music industry. Apparently all that cheap energy will give them incentive to power all their robots (that will probably be paid for by state & federal government aid packages).

The question is can these companies make it without government loans considering all their overhead. Tesla does their manufacturing in California and now plans on assembling in the Netherlands for the European version of the Model S. What's next, a distribution center in Bermuda? What the heck, let's just open a plant in Midtown Manhattan. This is the strategy of a specialty niche player at best. If Apple is going to reinvent the wheel or catch lighting in a bottle for the umpteenth time, I've got to think they'll be doing some things differently.

All I know is the charts are telling me that a big wave up is going to come probably about the same time when the High Plaines become the new Saudi Arabia and Grand Forks the new Southfork, but not before another big washout which is likely at hand or close to it. Disruption is exactly what it means.

Something is going to be the catalyst, the next steam engine, or the incandescent light bulb, or the IBM System/360. The government is not likely to be involved at all (or we can only hope).

[yelnick]

Virgil, Norway is pushing forward on Thorium.  Watch that space. On Apple, their iPhone 5 is apparently pushing the limits of teenage girls dexterity and eyesight, so Apple may have no choice but to embrace robotics. We could have a manufacturing renaissance here, albeit of such high productivity it would not bring back assembly line jobs.   

[Hockthefarm]

Virgil:

Thanks for the kind words. Best wishes to you and yours.

Agree whole heartedly with the "Yelnick Effect" and his ability to make you feel like a chimp in front of a big rock. We watched Kubrick's masterpiece in bluray a few weeks ago. Just as good today.

I see where they are prototyping strawberry picking robots. They can distinguish color and as such ripeness. If you have ever picked strawberries, you can grasp the implications of this technology.

My apologies for the rant. We found that shooting particularly hard to bear. My epiphany of sorts was the conclusion that the NRA (a group I have long supported) is aiding and abetting this "nutter" group of outcasts. I think it is impossible to define a nutter, so they will never really be controlled.

Hock